The play-in matchup of Adam Silver’s dreams is getting closer: The Lakers have been in ninth or 10th place in the West every day since December 29, while the Warriors have held either position every day since February 10. Both teams are now three losses back of eighth place, and according to The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine, they now have a 59 percent chance to meet in the West’s first win-or-go-home game of the 2023-24 postseason.
If Anunoby remains unavailable for a longer period of time or if he comes back but is not fully physically capable, it should be noted that he only made 3 out of 13 shots from behind the arc while dealing with his bothersome elbow last week. This will only worsen the Knicks’ existing injury woes if both Randle and Mitchell Robinson are unable to make a comeback this season, leaving the team with a dangerously depleted frontcourt.
“Victor Wembanyama’s argument for Defensive Player of the Year is currently being reviewed.”
“Currently, there is a review taking place to evaluate Victor Wembanyama’s candidacy for Defensive Player of the Year.”
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This performance brings up an important inquiry: Is Gilgeous-Alexander the most steady player in the NBA? I can reply to this inquiry by evaluating their game score, which is a comprehensive statistic that condenses a player’s entire box score into a single number, using the same “scale” as points scored (where a game score of 30 is outstanding, 20 is solid, etc.).
Advanced metrics use a combination of box score, tracking, and on/off data to bridge the gaps between different forms of measurement. They all demonstrate a close competition between the two French centers. LEBRON ranks Gobert and Wembanyama closely on the league’s defensive leaderboards: Gobert is in first place, with a difference of 3.0 points per 100 possessions, while Wembanyama is in second place with a difference of 2.9. Estimated plus-minus data actually places Wembanyama ahead of Gobert by a larger margin (3.3 points per 100 compared to 2.6).
Gobert leads the pack with the second highest odds, while Spurs newcomer Victor Wembanyama holds a 16 percent chance. No other candidate comes close, with only a 1 percent chance. The major difference between the top two contenders is significant and crucial: Gobert’s team has the best defensive rating in the NBA, while Wembanyama’s ranks at 23rd. This clearly makes Gobert the obvious choice.
In short, Wembanyama’s statistics are on par with Gobert’s, particularly in terms of blocks and steals which are important indicators of a skilled defender. However, I am hesitant to select Wembanyama for DPOY as advanced defensive metrics can be unreliable and the difference in their teams’ performances may be a deciding factor. Additionally, Gobert has played 20% more minutes than Wembanyama this season, which could be a final factor in the decision.
SGA clearly stands out as the dominant player, holding onto an impressive 68.4 percent of his highest performances even in his worst games. This sets him apart from other notable names, including Moe Wagner, as he consistently outperforms with a significant margin. This finding is also supported by a more precise measure of consistency, which looks at the standard deviation of each player’s individual game scores compared to the average, resulting in the same conclusion. For simplicity, we will continue to use the best vs. worst method as the comparison.
Notably, Wembanyama doesn’t send his blocks flying toward the third row of fans; instead, he snatches shots out of the air and heads in the other direction. The Spurs have recovered 68 percent of Wemby’s 213 blocks, per PBP Stats. That’s the highest proportion for any player with at least 60 blocks.
Is the presence of Herro significantly enhancing the Heat’s performance? This question remains unresolved since the Heat reached the Finals without him in the previous postseason due to injury. However, it is clear that the Heat are currently lacking without Herro, who has been out since February with a foot injury.
Possession Start Type’s Impact on Offensive Rating
Start of Possession | Offensive Rating |
---|---|
Start of Possession | Offensive Rating |
Steal | 134 |
Block at rim | 126 |
Missed shot | 118 |
Made shot | 113 |
Dead ball | 111 |
Every Thursday during the NBA season, we take a look at a variety of topics from different parts of the league. This week, we’ll be discussing the defensive prowess of Victor Wembanyama, the potential matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in the play-in game, the most and least consistent stars in the league, and other news. Welcome to the Kram Session.
A potential Lakers and Warriors play-in matchup would introduce a fresh chapter in the longstanding rivalry between LeBron James and Steph Curry (along with Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Steve Kerr). This would not only be their fourth consecutive meeting in the Finals, but also the third time in the past four playoffs that they would compete without the championship on the line. This was previously seen in the second round of the previous season and in a thrilling play-in game this year, which resulted in LeBron hitting a game-winning 3-pointer over Steph in the final minute.
Hart and Donte DiVincenzo, both 6-foot-4, may exceed their height in terms of performance, but eventually, the Knicks will require additional height and depth in their rotation to prevent burnout even before the playoffs commence. With a complete lineup, the Knicks’ roster possesses enough skill to make a push in the East and possibly compete with the Celtics, who currently rank first in the conference. However, they will be unable to give their best effort if their top forwards are relegated to the sidelines.
Both the Lakers and Warriors are not the sole experienced teams in danger of facing a must-win situation. According to the Odds Machine as of Thursday morning, this table displays the most probable 9-10 matchups in the West.
On/Off Defensive Differentials for Candidates for Defensive Player of the Year
Player | On/Off Differential |
---|---|
Player | On/Off Differential |
Victor Wembanyama | -11.5 |
Bam Adebayo | -6.1 |
Rudy Gobert | -4.2 |
Jarrett Allen | -0.8 |
Anthony Davis | +1.5 |
The rookies have been the most inconsistent players this season, according to this metric (at least 20 games with 20 minutes played). The five players with the lowest consistency are Scoot Henderson, Gradey Dick, Grant Williams, Anthony Black, and Max Christie.
Fast Breaks
Rudy Gobert is the clear frontrunner for the Defensive Player of the Year honors. This would mark his fourth win, putting him in league history alongside Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo with the most wins in NBA history. After facing criticism last season for his trade to the Timberwolves, winning this award would be a positive turn of events for Gobert.
The Knicks’ biggest midseason trade acquisition faces a grim injury timeline. After dazzling in his initial stint with his new team, Anunoby missed 18 games, returned for three last week, and once again hit the injured list. The issue, according to Adrian Wojnarowski, is a “post-surgical flare-up in his right elbow” that will keep him out for the foreseeable future.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a strong affinity for scoring 31 points in games. In the previous season, he consistently averaged 31 points per game and is expected to continue this trend in the current season. Impressively, he has achieved this exact score of 31 points in 13 games this season, surpassing the previous record held by Oscar Robertson and Charles Barkley who each achieved this score eight times in a season.
Soft of the Week: The Promised Play-In
It is simple to argue for Gobert in his impressive return to form, as he is the top defender on the league’s strongest defensive team. According to FanDuel odds on Wednesday, he has an 80 percent chance of winning.
I organized the performance records of all players based on their game scores, and divided the list into two groups – the top half with their best games, and the bottom half with their worst games. This included only games where the player had played for at least 20 minutes. I then determined the difference in average game score between a player’s best and worst games to determine who had the most consistent level of production throughout the season.
After achieving five consecutive victories in late February, the Heat’s performance has declined with a record of 5-6. Out of those five wins, four have been against weaker teams such as the Pistons (three times) and the Jazz. During this stretch, the Heat have struggled against teams that are headed for the playoffs, losing to the Wizards and ranking 23rd in terms of offensive efficiency. Having their second-highest scorer back in the lineup would definitely benefit the team.
It may seem unusual to suggest this for a player who typically plays only 23 minutes per game and has been seen as a disadvantage in recent seasons, but the Clippers would benefit from having Westbrook. His playing style offers a unique dynamic compared to the slower, more calculated approach of their veteran players. If the Clippers end up facing the faster, more agile Pelicans in the first round (which appears to be highly probable), his contribution would bring a much-needed change of tempo. The Clippers must be crossing their fingers that Westbrook’s injury heals according to their predicted timeline.
Potential Play-In Matchups for 9th and 10th Seed in Western Conference.
Matchup | Odds |
---|---|
Matchup | Odds |
Lakers vs. Warriors | 59% |
Suns vs. Warriors | 10% |
Suns vs. Lakers | 8% |
Warriors vs. Rockets | 6% |
Lakers vs. Rockets | 3% |
Kings vs. Lakers | 3% |
Kings vs. Warriors | 3% |
Mavericks vs. Lakers | 3% |
Mavericks vs. Warriors | 3% |
Furthermore, is it inevitable that the Lakers and Warriors will face off in the 9 vs. 10 play-in game?
Unfortunately, Melton’s performance has been overshadowed by Embiid, but he has also been struggling with injuries. He briefly returned to the lineup in late February but has been dealing with a lingering back problem and has not played since. Nick Nurse recently stated that there is no new information on when Melton will be able to return.
In previous discussions, we’ve touched on the impact of top player injuries, such as Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns. However, in this edition of Fast Breaks, we’ll be taking a closer look at four key players whose well-being could greatly impact their teams’ success for the remainder of the season.
Take That for Data: The NBA’s Most and Least Consistent Stars
The team is negatively affected by Melton’s absence, especially since they also lack the well-rounded abilities of Embiid. Melton is skilled in multiple areas, consistently improving his team’s performance. Despite a dip in his 3-point shooting this season, he remains a valuable asset as a shooter, passer, and defender.
While blocks and steals may be important, Wemby’s performance goes beyond these measures and also includes analysis of game footage and a variety of additional statistics. In terms of defending the rim, Gobert and Wembanyama have very similar metrics. According to NBA Advanced Stats, opponents have a success rate of 52% when Gobert is defending and 53% when Wembanyama is in the vicinity. This places both players among the top performers in the league and forces opponents to adjust their approach near the basket.
According to PBP Stats, Wembanyama has a higher count of recovered blocks and steals compared to Gobert. This results in Wembanyama converting possession in favor of his team 103 more times, which is 81 percent more frequently than the Timberwolves center.
However, is that truly accurate? This basic comparison overlooks significant factors that impact the defensive abilities of both French centers. If Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels were to play for the San Antonio Spurs, their defense would likely be ranked much higher. Evaluating individual defense can be challenging, but Wembanyama has a compelling argument to not only be the first rookie since Tim Duncan to make an All-Defensive team, but also to win the Defensive Player of the Year award.
“Top-performing NBA players with the most consistent performance during the 2023-24 season.”
Player |
“The average highest game score” |
Mean Lowest Game Score |
Retained |
---|---|---|---|
Player |
Mean Top Score for a Single Game |
Average Worst Game Score | Retained |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 31.8 | 21.8 | 68.4% |
Luka Doncic | 35.2 | 21.4 | 60.6% |
LeBron James | 27.7 | 16.7 | 60.2% |
Kevin Durant | 27.2 | 16.2 | 59.5% |
Giannis Antetokounmpo | 34.0 | 20.2 | 59.3% |
Moritz Wagner | 17.5 | 10.3 | 59.0% |
Nikola Jokic | 34.0 | 20.0 | 59.0% |
Jayson Tatum | 26.9 | 15.8 | 58.8% |
Joel Embiid | 37.7 | 22.1 | 58.8% |
Bam Adebayo | 22.3 | 12.8 | 57.6% |
However, SGA stands out as one of the top players, second only to Embiid, who had a limited performance due to knee surgery. Although Gilgeous-Alexander is unlikely to win the MVP, with Jokic as the current frontrunner, his reliability will benefit him as he leads the possibly first-place Thunder into the postseason.
Alternatively, the Rockets could potentially move up from their current 11th place ranking if the Lakers or Warriors encounter setbacks. While this possibility is not very probable, the Rockets have achieved six consecutive victories, with their most recent four being without Alperen Sengun.
It could be that stocks have been seen as overvalued for a significant period of time, leading to their current state of being undervalued. The worth of blocks and steals is immense, not only because they prevent the opposing team from scoring, but also because they create opportunities for offense on the other end. According to an examination of PBP Stats information, this graph demonstrates the considerable impact that steals and blocks have on subsequent offensive possessions.
Voters have come to understand that while blocks and steals are important metrics for measuring a player’s defensive abilities, they do not fully encompass overall defensive performance due to their limited applicability on possessions. Out of 13 opportunities since Dwight Howard won his second DPOY in 2009-10, the award has only gone to the season’s blocks leader once (last year with Jackson). Interestingly, Gobert, who led the league in blocks in 2016-17, did not win DPOY that year, but has gone on to win three times in subsequent seasons without leading in blocks.
The NBA players with the lowest level of consistency in the 2023-24 season.
Player |
Mean Optimum Game Rating |
Average score for the worst game. |
Retained |
---|---|---|---|
Player |
Mean Highest Game Score |
The mean score for the worst game. |
Retained |
Cade Cunningham | 22.3 | 9.8 | 44.1% |
Devin Vassell | 20.8 | 8.9 | 42.7% |
Jerami Grant | 20.2 | 8.6 | 42.7% |
Terry Rozier | 22.1 | 9.1 | 41.0% |
Tobias Harris | 20.2 | 8.1 | 40.1% |
Bradley Beal | 20.8 | 8.2 | 39.5% |
Coby White | 20.8 | 7.9 | 38.2% |
D’Angelo Russell | 21.6 | 8.2 | 37.9% |
Deandre Ayton | 21.2 | 8.0 | 37.7% |
Zach LaVine | 20.5 | 7.4 | 36.0% |
Anfernee Simons | 22.7 | 8.1 | 35.9% |
Cam Thomas | 20.8 | 7.0 | 33.7% |
Wembanyama’s cumulative stocks (combining steals and blocks) significantly surpass his competitors. He has an impressive 115 stocks, which is 66 percent more than Gobert’s total.
A Picture is Equivalent to One Thousand Words: Kindly Ensure Josh Hart is Doing Well
Certain players, such as White and Russell, are included on this list due to significant improvements made since October, resulting in their inconsistent performance throughout the entire season. However, the majority of the list is as anticipated, featuring guards who rely on their ability to shoot accurately to make a noticeable impact in every game.
Although the Heat carry a strong reputation in the Eastern Conference, teams like the Celtics and Bucks may hope to avoid facing them in the early playoff rounds. However, Miami, currently tied for seventh place in the East, would also prefer to avoid the play-in tournament. Last season, the Heat finished in seventh during the regular season, lost in the 7 vs. 8 matchup, and were close to elimination against the Bulls in their last game. Their impressive journey to the Finals almost came to an abrupt end.