The potential success of far-off draft picks can leave you in a state of limbo as you wait for them to develop. Consider the current situation of the Brooklyn Nets, without key player Mikal Bridges or a desirable location to attract top talent. This is a likely scenario for the Phoenix Suns if they decide to rebuild their team. Even if they make the right choices, it could take up to five years to reconstruct a competitive roster and during that time, they may remain insignificant in the league.
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Both teams quickly brought together three highly skilled All-Stars, despite some overlap in their abilities. While the fit of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh may have been doubted at the time, it is often overlooked now. In the season before joining forces, all three players ranked in the same range for mid-range shots per game (13th-18th), and they each had a career 3-point percentage below 33%.
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Both teams were extremely dedicated to the concept of having a standout trio, to the point where their financial resources revolved around it. In the 2010-11 season, the Heat could only afford to pay three players more than the minimum salary, in addition to James, Wade, and Bosh (namely, Mike Miller, Joel Anthony, and Udonis Haslem). Similarly, the Suns began the season with three players earning salaries between the minimum and maximum amounts (Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen, and Nassir Little), and were eventually able to gather enough minimum salaries to acquire a fourth player (Royce O’Neale) at the deadline.
- Both teams used all their resources to assemble these teams. The Suns exchanged Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and five first-round picks for Kevin Durant from Brooklyn and also gave Washington four first-round swaps for Bradley Beal. The Heat sacrificed two first-round picks each for James and Bosh in sign-and-trades to fit their salaries, and they had to trade all their players except for Anthony to free up the necessary cap space to sign them.
- Both groups of three stars were formed with the inclusion of a previous recipient of the Most Valuable Player award (James for Miami, Durant for Phoenix), a player who hailed from the host city and had previously led his team to the Finals (Wade for Miami, Devin Booker for Phoenix), and an All-Star who had spent his professional career playing for underperforming teams (Bosh for Miami, Beal for Phoenix).
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Both star trios lacked a typical defensive center and traditional point guard despite incorporating ample ball-handling skills.
Durant has slightly improved his performance against Minnesota, but he is not as capable of creating opportunities for his teammates without any assistance as he was in 2021. He remains a top player in the NBA. His shooting abilities indicate that he will continue to perform at a high level next year, as long as he remains healthy. However, any team looking to acquire him would need to be confident in their ability to compete for a championship immediately. How many teams have the resources required to make the Suns a contender? Perhaps the Knicks?
The league has taken notice of the super-team concept introduced by the Heat and has implemented changes in the CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) to make it more difficult for teams to build or maintain a deep roster. Although the Suns can utilize Bird Rights to hold onto their players, it is important to mention that the luxury tax, particularly the repeater tax, will have a greater financial impact on teams like the Suns who exceed it. Even retaining their current roster will come at a hefty price.
If this all seems negative… well… yes, it is. This is a dire situation. It is one of the most challenging scenarios currently facing any NBA team. It will only become more difficult. Just look at the bottom of the Western Conference this season. The Memphis Grizzlies have a younger, better, and more strategic roster than the Suns. If they have an injury-free season, they will surpass Phoenix. Houston’s young team finished eight games behind the Suns, and they may make a big trade this offseason if they so choose. In that case, the Rockets could also overtake the Suns. And if the Spurs decide to go all-in? Well… you’ve witnessed Victor Wembanyama. If he isn’t already skilled enough to lead a team to the playoffs on his own, he will be very soon.
The number appears even more astounding if you consider that the 2023 winning team, the Nuggets, had six players with an average of 10 or more points during the playoffs. The Suns attempted a tactic that had been used for thirteen years in a league that had matured. When Miami invested in three star players, it was a first-time move at that period.
It is probable that the Suns made a mistake in their approach. They constructed a team for a time period that has now passed and are now stuck as a lesser competitor until they eventually fall, having failed to reach the same success that the Heat did 14 years ago when they attempted a similar strategy. Pat Riley comprehended the competition in the league, while Mat Ishbia did not.
As of now, it can be said that the Suns are not the only team fully committed to their goals. Even the other teams in Phoenix’s division have attempted to form a super-team in recent years except for Sacramento. Boston is an example of a team with mostly All-Star level players who were strategically assembled with a diverse range of skills.
Although they suffered an embarrassing defeat in the first round (losing 4-0 to the Timberwolves), the 2023-24 Phoenix Suns can be compared to the 2010-11 Miami Heat in terms of their historical performance. This comparison is mostly due to their surface-level similarities.
The Suns will not have access to certain tools in the future due to the NBA’s new second luxury tax apron. This rule limits teams in Phoenix’s salary bracket from using a mid-level exception and including cash in trades. There are also restrictions on salary aggregation and a minimum amount of money that must be sent out in trades. Additionally, if the Suns remain in this salary range for an extended period of time, they may face the freezing of future first-round picks at the end of the first round.
The situation here does not have a clear solution. The Suns do not have a clear direction or plan that can solve this problem. They miscalculated the state of the league when trading for Beal and misjudged its future when trading for Durant. It is possible that they have a successful offseason in regards to signing players for minimum salaries. They may also discover an unheralded player like Austin Reaves or Naz Reid through the undrafted pool, or someone may make an unexpected trade for the few remaining assets the Suns have.
There could be debate over certain details in this discussion. The threesome in Miami had fewer worries about their age, a stronger history in defense, and potentially more skill at the time. However, the primary mindset that drove both groups to build their superteams was similar. Essentially, it was an effort to have a more talented team than the rest of the NBA.
In 2011, the league was successful in preventing three players from dominating and maintaining a level playing field. The Heat was defeated by the Mavericks in the 2011 Finals, showing how different the two potential super-teams were. During this time, the NBA allowed player teams to gradually improve and build depth over time. The Heat took advantage of this by using their mid-level exception to add Shane Battier in the summer of 2011, who later became a starter on their winning championship teams. They also used the same exception in 2012 to acquire Ray Allen, who made one of the most significant shots in Finals history. Additionally, they included cash in their 2011 draft night trade for Norris Cole.
The intelligence and skills of the basketball league have significantly improved since 2011. The Phoenix team boasts a trio of highly talented players on the offensive end, potentially one of the best in NBA history. However, their offense only ranked in the top 10 due to a high number of mid-range shots, while their 3-point and restricted area shots ranked considerably lower. While contested mid-range shots can be valuable in clutch situations, recent data shows that offenses have more success when they prioritize taking easier shots rather than making difficult ones. In today’s NBA, with its advanced strategies and depth of talent, having three players who excel in the same areas is not enough.
The Suns are currently facing a dilemma. The powerhouse team they put together is not successful and it will likely never be. The league’s structure no longer supports this type of team compared to previous years. However, there are no other viable options available.
Each year, some budget signings make a big impact. Kelly Oubre and Derrick Jones Jr. were notable players in the 2023 free agency. However, most minimum contracts end up being mediocre rotation players, with some not even making a significant contribution. In the upcoming months, there will be discussions about how the Suns require a legitimate point guard and a strong defensive player to improve next season. Unfortunately, unless they dismantle their top three players, there’s no feasible way for them to acquire these players.
The Phoenix team is expected to have late first-round draft picks in future even-numbered years. This is not a result of their success, but rather their frequent trading. Their selection for this year is the 20th pick, which is not very strong. Besides this, their only option for acquiring skilled players will be through minimum contracts. However, if this method was effective in creating a strong team, the Suns would not be facing their current struggles.
In challenging times, the extreme solution for many Phoenix teams is a complete overhaul. However, this becomes even riskier for the Suns as they have limited control over their picks in the upcoming years. Although trading Durant and Booker could result in the return of picks, those teams would have the valuable players and therefore the picks may not hold much value in return.
Additionally, there is also Booker to consider. Usually, players as talented and young as him are not traded unless they request it. If his ultimate desire is to win, it is not difficult to see Booker examining Phoenix’s bleak future and deciding to make a move. However, if he is content with his current situation, it is unlikely that there is a strong enough trade package available to create a winning team without him alongside Beal and Durant. In fact, considering the potential risks of injuries from those two players, Booker may be needed simply as a reliable player to help the team during the regular season.Durant would fetch more in a trade to be sure, but his size alone makes him the most important star to be kept in a possible two-star approach. His value today likely isn’t close to what it was in February, 2023, either. He will turn 36 before opening night of next season and has an even scarier injury history than Beal. He’s getting to the rim far less than he did at his peak. His 2022 and 2023 postseasons were relative disappointments, as his efficiency dipped significantly in both.
In 2010, it was possible to achieve the goal of having a successful team. The idea of super-teams was not as widespread as it is now, except in Boston where their top three players were all in their mid-30s. The league was not as competitive, and there was less strategy involved. The 2011 Rockets had a strong offensive performance, with their lead scorer Kevin Martin, because they were one of the few teams to focus on making effective shots. In contrast, the fourth-leading scorer for Miami during their run to the 2011 Finals was Mario Chalmers with an average of 7.8 points per game.
A second Beal trade seems unlikely. He’s about to turn 31, he has three years of super max money left on his deal, he comes with a number of injury concerns and also has a no-trade clause. Even if the Suns could move him, it’s hard to imagine them doing so for the kinds of players they need right now.
