Shohei Ohtani Enters Free Agency, 10 Teams in the Running
The offseason of Shohei Ohtani has officially begun as the Los Angeles Angels’ exclusive negotiating window comes to an end. Ohtani, the most uniquely talented player in baseball history, will now hit the open market, sparking a fascinating free agent sweepstakes.
Speculation on the value of Ohtani’s free agent contract has been rampant throughout the summer, with estimates ranging from $500 million to almost $800 million. His dominance both on the mound and at the plate, coupled with his global appeal and young age, have made him one of the most sought-after players in the game.
However, Ohtani’s recent injury complicates matters. He underwent a second Tommy John surgery on his right elbow, and while he is expected to be able to hit by the start of the 2024 season and resume a two-way role by 2025, the success rate for pitchers undergoing two UCL surgeries is relatively small. The uncertainty surrounding his recovery has made predicting his future performance a guessing game.
Despite the uncertainty, there is no doubt that Ohtani is capable of being one of the greatest pitchers and offensive players in the sport. He won the AL’s Most Valuable Player Award unanimously in 2021 and is expected to capture the honor again in 2023.
Ohtani’s next contract is expected to surpass the nine-year, $360 million deal signed by Aaron Judge last offseason. The pitching aspect of Ohtani’s deal is likely to be highly incentivized based on starts or innings, given the uncertainty of his elbow. He could potentially become the first $500 million athlete in North American professional sports history.
Several factors could influence Ohtani’s decision. He could push for an opt-out clause after Year 1 or 2 to retest the market once he has fully recovered from surgery. He could also be swayed by short-term, high average annual value (AAV) deals or motivated owners who guarantee sums of money that other teams can’t match.
Ohtani’s silence on his future plans has only added to the mystery. It has been nearly three months since he last spoke publicly, and his true priorities remain unknown. Some believe he has no interest in playing in a major city like New York, while others think he wants to build a legacy. Weather and ballpark factors may also play a role in his decision.
While nothing is certain, experts believe Ohtani’s next destination can likely be narrowed down to 10 teams. The Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, and Toronto Blue Jays are all considered potential landing spots for Ohtani.
The Red Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers are seen as strong contenders due to their financial resources and competitive rosters. The Mets and Yankees, both based in New York, cannot be discounted despite potential obstacles. The Giants, Mariners, Rangers, and Blue Jays are also expected to make significant efforts to secure Ohtani’s services.
As Ohtani enters free agency, the baseball world eagerly awaits his decision. His unique talent and potential to reshape the game make him one of the most intriguing free agents in recent memory.
The Offseason of Shohei Ohtani Begins: A Fascinating Free Agent Sweepstakes
By Staff Writer
Nov 2, 2023
The offseason of Shohei Ohtani is officially upon us. It begins with the Los Angeles Angels’ five-day, exclusive negotiating window, a time when teams are given the first opportunity to keep their own players. In this case, it is merely a formality, a feeble attempt to delay the inevitable. Beginning Monday, the most uniquely talented player in baseball history will hit the open market, triggering a fascinating free agent sweepstakes rife with wonder, mystery, and uncertainty.
The Uncertainty of Ohtani’s Future
Throughout the summer, speculation on the value of Ohtani’s free agent contract became increasingly more outlandish, from $500 million to $600 million to almost $800 million. His dominance on the mound, his prowess in the batter’s box, and his appeal around the globe demanded it. However, Ohtani’s recent injury, a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, has further complicated his future.
Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the orthopedic surgeon who performed both of Ohtani’s elbow procedures, stated that Ohtani will be able to hit by the start of the 2024 season and resume a two-way role by 2025. But the success rate of pitchers undergoing two UCL surgeries is relatively small, making Ohtani’s recovery a guessing game for even the most educated people on the subject.
Despite the uncertainty, there is an understanding that Ohtani is capable of being one of the greatest pitchers and one of the most dynamic offensive players in the sport. His performance over the past three seasons speaks for itself.
Ohtani’s Dominance on the Field
Ohtani won the AL’s Most Valuable Player Award unanimously in 2021 and would have won it in 2022 if not for Aaron Judge’s record-breaking home run season. From 2021 to 2023, Ohtani slashed .277/.379/.585 with 124 homers, 22 triples, and 57 stolen bases. He also won 34 games and posted a 2.84 ERA in 74 pitching starts, striking out 542 batters over 428⅓ innings. His 26.4 FanGraphs wins above replacement easily led the majors.
The Potential Contract
The free agent deal Judge signed last offseason has been looked upon as a starting point for Ohtani. Whatever is added to it would take care of the pitching aspect, which many expect to be highly incentivized based on starts or innings, given the uncertainty of Ohtani’s elbow. Even with the surgery, Ohtani’s deal could still make him the first $500 million athlete in North American professional sports history.
However, there are several factors that could change the direction of Ohtani’s contract negotiations. He could push for an opt-out after Year 1 or 2, allowing him to retest the market once he’s done recovering from surgery as a pitcher. He could be swayed by short-term, high AAV deals that will surely present themselves over the winter. Or he could be drawn to a highly motivated owner who guarantees sums of money that other teams can’t match.
The Potential Suitors
Ohtani’s silence has only added to the mystery surrounding his next destination. While nobody can say for certain, there are 10 teams that are considered potential suitors for Ohtani:
- Boston Red Sox: Ohtani has long been intrigued by Boston, and the Red Sox could benefit from signing him to repair the ill will caused by recent last-place finishes.
- Chicago Cubs: The Cubs, entering another contention window, have the financial flexibility and young pitching to accommodate Ohtani’s recovery timeline.
- Los Angeles Angels: Despite their lack of recent success, the Angels offer Ohtani familiarity and comfort, as well as the opportunity to continue his two-way role.
- Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers, with their sustained winning and financial resources, have long been considered favorites to land Ohtani.
- New York Mets: With deep pockets and a desire to secure superstar players, the Mets are expected to make a significant effort to sign Ohtani.
- New York Yankees: Despite potential roster complications, the Yankees’ allure and financial power cannot be discounted.
- San Francisco Giants: The Giants, in search of a superstar player to build around, will undoubtedly be among the top bidders for Ohtani.
- Seattle Mariners: Ohtani’s fit with the Mariners, a team with a strong Japanese presence, makes a lot of sense, but their ability to compete financially remains uncertain.
- Texas Rangers: The Rangers, with their recent World Series title and potential payroll flexibility, are considered favorites to sign Ohtani.
- Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have the financial means and starting pitching depth to make a strong push for Ohtani.
As Ohtani enters free agency, the baseball world eagerly awaits his decision. The outcome of this fascinating sweepstakes will shape the future of the sport and potentially redefine the value of a player in North American professional sports.
