The Impact of Mock Draft Picks on NFL Teams: A Retrospective Analysis
As the NFL draft approaches each year, fans and analysts eagerly await the mock drafts from experts like Mel Kiper to see who their favorite teams might select. These mock drafts are often seen as fun exercises, but what if teams actually followed these predictions to the letter? Would their fortunes have been different? Let’s take a look back at the last 10 drafts and analyze the picks made by the Seattle Seahawks compared to Kiper’s suggestions.
2014 Draft: Stephon Tuitt vs. Paul Richardson
Kiper’s pick: Stephon Tuitt, DT, Notre Dame
Seahawks pick: Paul Richardson, WR, Colorado
Better pick: Tuitt. Richardson’s injury-prone career pales in comparison to Tuitt’s solid performance, making him the clear choice in hindsight.
2015 Draft: Ronald Darby vs. Frank Clark
Kiper’s pick: Ronald Darby, CB, Florida State
Seahawks pick: Frank Clark, DE, Michigan
Better pick: Clark. Clark’s productivity and impact on the team outweigh Darby’s contributions, making him the better choice.
2016 Draft: T.J. Green vs. Germain Ifedi
Kiper’s pick: T.J. Green, S, Clemson
Seahawks pick: Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
Better pick: Ifedi. Despite his faults, Ifedi’s tenure as a starting right tackle for the Seahawks gives him the edge over Green’s lackluster career.
2017 Draft: Tre’Davious White vs. Malik McDowell
Kiper’s pick: Tre’Davious White, CB, LSU
Seahawks pick: Malik McDowell, DL, Michigan State
Better pick: White. White’s success as a top corner in the NFL far surpasses McDowell’s disappointing career marred by injuries.
2018 Draft: Marcus Davenport vs. Rashaad Penny
Kiper’s pick: Marcus Davenport, OLB, UTSA
Seahawks pick: Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State
Better pick: Davenport. Despite Penny’s late emergence, Davenport’s impact and consistency make him the superior choice.
2019 Draft: Montez Sweat and Justin Layne vs. L.J. Collier and Marquise Blair
Kiper’s picks: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State; Justin Layne, CB, Michigan State
Seahawks picks: L.J. Collier, DE, TCU; Marquise Blair, S, Utah
Better picks: Sweat and Blair. The Seahawks’ choices pale in comparison to the potential impact Sweat and Blair could have had on the team.
2020 Draft: Tee Higgins vs. Jordyn Brooks
Kiper’s pick: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
Seahawks pick: Jordyn Brooks, LB, Texas Tech
Better pick: Higgins. Despite Brooks’ potential, Higgins’ success as a receiver makes him the preferred choice in hindsight.
2021 Draft: Joseph Ossai vs. Dee Eskridge
Kiper’s pick: Joseph Ossai, OLB, Texas
Seahawks pick: Dee Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan
Better pick: Ossai. Ossai’s impact and potential outweigh Eskridge’s contributions, making him the better choice for the Seahawks.
2022 Draft: Derek Stingley Jr vs. Charles Cross
Kiper’s pick: Derek Stingley Jr, CB, LSU
Seahawks pick: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Better pick: TBD. While Stingley Jr. may have had a spectacular season, Cross’ potential and importance to the team cannot be overlooked.
2023 Draft: Jalen Carter and Myles Murphy vs. Devon Witherspoon and Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Kiper’s picks: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia; Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
Seahawks picks: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois; Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Better picks: TBD. Witherspoon and Smith-Njigba show promise, but only time will tell if they outshine Carter and Murphy in the long run.
Reflecting on these past drafts, it’s clear that the decisions made by teams can have a lasting impact on their success. While mock drafts provide a glimpse into what could have been, the reality of the NFL draft is often unpredictable. As teams prepare for the upcoming draft, they must carefully consider the potential outcomes of their selections to ensure a bright future for their franchise.
The Impact of Mock Draft Picks on NFL Teams: A Retrospective Analysis
As the NFL draft approaches each year, fans and analysts eagerly await the release of mock drafts from experts like Mel Kiper. These mock drafts serve as a fun exercise in predicting which players teams will select, but how accurate are they really? Let’s take a look back at some of Kiper’s past mock draft picks for the Seattle Seahawks and compare them to the actual selections made by the team.
2014 (No. 32)
Kiper’s pick: Stephon Tuitt, DT, Notre Dame (Actually picked: Pittsburgh Steelers, No. 46)
Seahawks pick: Paul Richardson, WR, Colorado (Traded down to No. 45)
Better pick: Tuitt. Unfortunately, Richardson was injury-prone in college and stayed that way in the pros. Tuitt never made a Pro Bowl but he had a career-high 11 sacks in 2020 before personal tragedy and injury led to an early retirement.
2015 (No. 63)
Kiper’s pick: Ronald Darby, CB, Florida State (Actually picked: Buffalo Bills, No. 50)
Seahawks pick: Frank Clark, DE, Michigan
Better pick: Clark. Darby has been a mostly fine, if not unspectacular cornerback. Clark not only was very productive in his first run with Seattle, he landed the Seahawks an extra first-round pick in a trade.
2016 (No. 26)
Kiper’s pick: T.J. Green, S, Clemson (Actually picked: Indianapolis Colts, No. 57)
Seahawks’ pick: Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
Better pick: Ifedi. This is by default, because Green was bad out of the gate and never improved. For all of Ifedi’s faults, the Seahawks had a starting right tackle for three years, whereas Green only had 12 career starts as a journeyman safety.
2017 (No. 26)
Kiper’s pick: Tre’Davious White, CB, LSU (Actually picked: Buffalo Bills, No. 27)
Seahawks’ pick: Malik McDowell, DL, Michigan State (Traded down to No. 35)
Better pick: White. Before the injuries, White was considered one of the best corners in the NFL. He’ll try and revive his career with the Los Angeles Rams. McDowell… yeah.
2018 (No. 18)
Kiper’s pick: Marcus Davenport, OLB, UTSA (Actually picked: New Orleans Saints, No. 14)
Seahawks’ pick: Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State (Traded down to No. 27)
Better pick: Davenport. The process for taking Penny aside, Rashaad’s career has been injury-riddled and he didn’t even emerge as a starter until the back-end of 2021. Davenport coincidentally had one strong nine-sack 2021 campaign, but barely played in his one year with the Minnesota Vikings. PFF graded Davenport very highly in New Orleans, and Marcus has been consistent with hurries and pressures to make up for the lack of sacks.
2019 (No. 21 and No. 30)
Kiper’s picks: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State (Actually picked: Washington Commanders, No. 26); Justin Layne, CB, Michigan State (Actually picked: Pittsburgh Steelers, No. 83)
Seahawks picks: L.J. Collier, DE, TCU (Traded down from No. 21 to No. 29) ; Marquise Blair, S, Utah (Traded down from No. 30 to No. 47)
Better picks: Sweat and Blair. Note that my “butterfly effect” comment from earlier meant that the Seahawks not trading down from No. 30 most likely means they don’t draft DK Metcalf. As erratic and injury-riddled as Blair was, Layne gave the Steelers only 145 defensive snaps and 0 starts. Kiper did admit Layne was a reach, and he wasn’t lying. No need to discuss Sweat vs. Collier. One of the few draft picks that was ridiculous at the time and worse in practice.
2020 (No. 27)
Kiper’s pick: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson (Actually picked: Cincinnati Bengals, No. 33)
Seahawks’ pick: Jordyn Brooks, LB, Texas Tech
Better pick: Hmm… Higgins? Keep in mind that Kiper made this pick after the Seahawks had already drafted Metcalf and Tyler Lockett had his rookie contract extended. That would’ve been something. Higgins is 5th in his draft class in receptions, behind CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Michael Pittman Jr, and Brandon Aiyuk. How much of Higgins’ success tied to Ja’Marr Chase being the number one receiver? I think that’s a valid question. Brooks’ best season was 2022 right before his ACL tear, but weighing positional importance I think I would’ve rather had Higgins. This isn’t to discredit Brooks, although it is a personal bias toward valuing wide receivers.
2021 (No. 56)
Kiper’s pick: Joseph Ossai, OLB, Texas (Actually picked: Cincinnati Bengals, No. 69)
Seahawks’ pick: Dee Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan
Better pick: Ossai. It’s certainly not by much. Ossai missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury, but in 2021 he found a role as a rotational pass rusher, recording 3.5 sacks and scoring a touchdown on a fumble return. Unfortunately, his claim to infamy is committing the roughness penalty on Patrick Mahomes that helped send the Chiefs to the 2022 Super Bowl. He had his role reduced in 2023 and is well behind Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard in the depth chart. Dee Eskridge had that cool jet sweep that one time and a nice kick return that other time. Add in the injuries and he’s been one of the least productive receivers drafted in Rounds 1-2 in the history of the NFL.
2022 (No. 9)
Kiper’s pick: Derek Stingley Jr, CB, LSU (Actually picked: Houston Texans, No. 3)
Seahawks’ pick: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Better pick: TBD. If we compared the two players at their respective positions, Stingley should have the edge after his spectacular second season. DSJ was out of Seattle’s reach anyway, but I’m still satisfied with the Cross selection and dread the alternate reality where Seattle ignored the left tackle position. Cross had an injury-shortened second year, so he’ll really have to step it up in year three to give the Seahawks something to think about as far as picking up his fifth-year option.
2023 (No. 5 and No. 20)
Kiper’s picks: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (Actually picked: Philadelphia Eagles, No. 9); Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson (Actually picked: Cincinnati Bengals, No. 28)
Seahawks’ picks: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois; Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Better picks: TBD. I prefer Witherspoon and JSN over the Carter/Murphy combo, but it’s too early to definitively call. At the moment, it should be Witherspoon and JSN in terms of productivity. Carter had a strong rookie season, whereas Murphy was so-so in Cincinnati.
Recap
The Kiper Drafts
- Stephon Tuitt
- Ronald Darby
- T.J. Green
- Tre’Davious White (2x Pro Bowl, 2x All-Pro)
- Marcus Davenport
- Montez Sweat (1x Pro Bowl)
- Tee Higgins
- Joseph Ossai
- Derek Stingley Jr
- Jalen Carter
- Myles Murphy
The Schneider/Carroll Drafts
- Paul Richardson
- Frank Clark (3x Pro Bowl, all with Chiefs)
- Germain Ifedi
- Malik McDowell
- Rashaad Penny
- L.J. Collier
- Marquise Blair
- Jordyn Brooks
- Dee Eskridge
- Charles Cross
- Devon Witherspoon (1x Pro Bowl)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The only players Kiper mocked who were out of Seattle’s reach were Stingley, Darby, and Davenport.
I do not think this is tremendously lopsided in this hypothetical world, but the last two drafts are doing some heavy lifting for the Seahawks. The ones where I wish Seattle would’ve gone with Kiper are Sweat over Collier, Tuitt over Richardson, White over McDowell, and Higgins over Brooks. Everyone else is either a wash or I side with what Schneider did.
You may have a different opinion! Respond in the poll below and sound off in the comments.
Poll
Which picks do you prefer?
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35%
Kiper’s mock draft picks
(228 votes)
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64%
The ones the Seahawks actually made
(418 votes)
646 votes total Vote Now
