The New York Mets have the opportunity to achieve something that has eluded them during the Steve Cohen era.
They might also consider a move that David Stearns, the president of baseball operations, has traditionally avoided in his career.
This involves offering a long-term contract to a starting pitcher.
With Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana all set to enter free agency, the Mets must take action to reconstruct their starting rotation during the offseason. They could certainly choose to bring back any of these pitchers, especially Manaea, who developed into their ace after altering his arm angle during the season.
Nevertheless, there are some appealing options available in free agency, such as left-handed All-Star Max Fried, who has been a key member of the Atlanta Braves’ rotation in the NL East for the last six seasons.
Recently, MLB insider Jim Bowden of The Athletic published his Top 45 MLB free agents list for the 2024-25 offseason, placing Fried at No. 5 overall.
According to Bowden’s assessment of Fried:
“Max Fried boasts a career record of 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA and 3.29 FIP. He has been selected for two All-Star teams, won two Gold Glove awards, and has finished in the top five for the Cy Young Award on two occasions,” Bowden stated. “In three of the last four seasons, he has made between 28 and 30 starts; however, he has faced injuries, including left forearm neuritis for the past two years. Consequently, his medical evaluations will play a crucial role in determining whether he secures a market-value contract or has to settle for a less lucrative one. The Braves have attempted to extend Fried in recent years without success. They plan to keep pursuing him this offseason and will observe how he performs in the market, as they are eager to have him back.”
Bowden identified the Mets as one of the most compatible teams for Fried. The Braves, Baltimore Orioles, and Boston Red Sox were also mentioned.
Bowden anticipates that the 30-year-old will receive a contract spanning six years worth $174 million.
In the previous season, Fried posted a record of 11-10, along with a 3.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.33 FIP, 166 strikeouts, and an ERA+ of 128 over 174.1 innings (29 starts).
Fried spent time on the 15-day injured list due to forearm neuritis in 2024 and was limited to 14 starts in 2023 due to issues such as a forearm strain, hamstring strain, and a finger blister.
While acquiring Fried would greatly enhance the Mets’ rotation, awarding a long-term deal to a starting pitcher at age 30 carries inherent risks.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen if Stearns and the Mets will opt for a long-term agreement with a starter. For now, Fried appears to be a suitable candidate and is likely to provide a significant boost, at least in the short term.
Will the Mets Break Tradition with a Long-Term Deal for Max Fried?
Understanding the New York Mets’ Contract Philosophy
The New York Mets have long been known for their unique approach to player contracts, often favoring short-term deals over lengthy commitments. This strategy has led to a mixed bag of results, particularly in their pitching staff. With the potential for a long-term deal on the horizon for Max Fried, fans and analysts are left wondering: will the Mets break their traditional mold?
Max Fried: A Brief Overview
Max Fried, a standout pitcher for the Atlanta Braves, has emerged as one of the top left-handed pitchers in Major League Baseball (MLB). Known for his smooth delivery and effective curveball, Fried has consistently performed at a high level, contributing significantly to the Braves’ success in recent years. Here are some key stats from his career:
| Year | Games Started | Win-Loss Record | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 14 | 7-3 | 4.02 | 77 |
| 2020 | 11 | 7-0 | 2.25 | 50 |
| 2021 | 28 | 14-7 | 3.04 | 158 |
| 2022 | 30 | 14-7 | 2.68 | 170 |
The Case for a Long-Term Deal
As the Mets weigh their options, several factors make a long-term deal for Fried appealing:
- Consistent Performance: Fried’s statistics illustrate his ability to perform at an elite level year after year.
- Left-Handed Pitching: Left-handed pitchers are often a valuable asset in a team’s rotation, providing a unique advantage against right-handed batters.
- Leadership Qualities: Fried has shown leadership on and off the field, which could benefit a younger Mets roster.
- Market Dynamics: With many teams looking to bolster their pitching staff, locking in a top talent could prevent bidding wars in the future.
Potential Risks of a Long-Term Commitment
Despite the advantages, there are inherent risks in committing to a long-term deal:
- Injuries: Pitchers are notoriously prone to injuries, and a long-term deal can be jeopardized by a significant injury.
- Performance Sustainability: Maintaining peak performance over several years can be challenging, especially in pitching.
- Financial Flexibility: Committing a large amount of money to one player can limit the Mets’ ability to sign other key free agents.
Comparative Analysis: Mets’ Historical Contracts
The Mets have a history of short-term contracts, especially for pitchers. Here’s a comparison of some notable deals:
| Player | Contract Length | Contract Value | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 5 years | $137 million | 2x Cy Young Winner |
| Marcus Stroman | 3 years | $71 million | 1x All-Star |
| Jason Vargas | 2 years | $16 million | Inconsistent Performance |
What Would a Long-Term Deal Mean for the Mets?
A long-term deal for Max Fried could signify a shift in the Mets’ organizational philosophy, indicating a willingness to invest in elite talent over a sustained period. This could have several implications:
- Building a Strong Rotation: Pairing Fried with existing stars can create a formidable starting rotation.
- Attracting More Talent: A commitment to Fried could signal to other players that the Mets are serious contenders, attracting other free agents.
- Fan Engagement: Long-term deals tend to increase fan engagement, as fans appreciate the stability and potential for championship contention.
Analysis of Current Market Trends
The MLB landscape is continuously evolving, with teams increasingly valuing long-term contracts for top-tier players. Here are some current trends:
- Increased Player Salaries: Major League Baseball is experiencing an upward trend in player salaries, which can impact negotiations.
- Focus on Analytics: Teams are leveraging data to assess player performance, influencing contract decisions.
- Emergence of Young Stars: With young talent entering the league, established players may seek longer contracts to secure their financial future.
Case Studies: Teams that Have Successfully Invested in Pitching
Several teams have made successful long-term investments in pitchers. Here are a few examples:
| Team | Pitcher | Contract Length | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Clayton Kershaw | 3 years | 3x Cy Young Winner |
| New York Yankees | Gerrit Cole | 9 years | ACE Performance |
| San Diego Padres | Blake Snell | 4 years | 1x Cy Young Winner |
What Fans Are Saying
Among Mets fans, opinions are divided on whether a long-term deal for Fried is the right move. Here are some common sentiments:
- Many fans believe that securing Fried would enhance the team’s competitiveness.
- Some express concerns about the potential risks involved, particularly around injuries.
- A segment of the fanbase is excited about the prospect of breaking from tradition, suggesting it could signify a new era for the Mets.
Final Thoughts on the Future of Max Fried and the Mets
As the Mets face this pivotal decision, the choice to pursue a long-term deal for Max Fried could define their trajectory for years to come. Whether they adhere to their traditional approach or embrace a new strategy remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the outcome will have lasting implications for both the franchise and its passionate fanbase.
