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One year ago, I cautioned bettors against wagering on Victor Wembanyama for the Rookie of the Year award. Clearly, that decision did not work in my favor. My reasoning was rooted partly in the award’s history favoring guards, but more significantly in the betting odds available. Most sportsbooks listed Wembanyama with minus-money odds, implying over a 50% chance for a player who had yet to step onto the court, which seemed absurd. Absurd might as well be Wembanyama’s middle name.
Now, here we find ourselves once more. This time, Wembanyama is favored not only among rookies but also among the top-tier defenders in basketball. Again, he is a minus-money favorite, this time contending for the 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year trophy. As of now, the best odds available are -160 at FanDuel, suggesting a 61.54% chance of victory for Wembanyama. Yet, I am once again advising you to steer clear of this bet.
It’s important to remember that the Rookie of the Year does not require players to meet the NBA’s minimum of 65 games played. However, to win the Defensive Player of the Year, that requirement must be satisfied. What are the odds of Wembanyama participating in 65 games this season? Certainly above 61.54%—he played 71 games last year and does not have any lingering injury issues apart from his unique physicality—but still well below 100%. The unpredictability of the NBA is a factor; a single hard fall, a tweaked ankle, or a nagging hamstring can easily jeopardize that 65-game mark. If you’re inclined to bet on Wembanyama, my suggestion is to wait a couple of months to see if any injury scares arise that might create more favorable odds. The -160 line doesn’t present enough urgency to justify an immediate bet. Missing 18 games means your wager becomes a loss.
However, playing 65 games does not guarantee success in the award race. For Wembanyama to secure this accolade, he would likely need to overcome at least two significant historical barriers. Winners of the Defensive Player of the Year award are almost always the leaders of elite defenses, and those defenses are crucial to a very successful season. Since 2008, every award recipient has played for a top-five defense. Last season, the Spurs ranked No. 21 in defense. Additionally, each winner during this time frame was on a playoff team, and considering Wembanyama’s team might only sneak in through the Play-In Tournament, it’s worth noting that the only player outside the top six seeds who won during this period was Tyson Chandler in 2012, while the Spurs finished as the No. 14 seed in the Western Conference last season.
You can certainly factor in potential improvements from San Antonio’s youthful roster. It’s also arguable that the Spurs allowed only 111.2 points per 100 possessions while Wembanyama was on the court—an impressive statistic that would have positioned them fifth across the league for the entire season had it held consistent. Nevertheless, these gaps remain too significant for me to overlook. Even acknowledging my belief that Wembanyama is the best defensive player in the NBA, I cannot sincerely recommend placing a bet on him for this award. I am, however, ready to accept that he might prove me wrong again.
This leads us
Gobert (+1500) experienced a redemption arc last year. Although Minnesota’s defense continues to be elite, there are numerous factors that could cause it to slip from its top ranking. His rim-protection statistics face a similar perception challenge; regardless of their quality, they are likely to be overshadowed by Wembanyama’s performance. Additionally, the hesitation to award him a fifth trophy post his Western Conference finals performance makes it difficult to envision Gobert winning unless multiple contenders experience injuries.
Anthony Davis (+2500) has openly expressed his frustration regarding his lack of Defensive Player of the Year awards. He may have a valid point, as he tends to be a superior playoff defender compared to Gobert and has consistently demonstrated Defensive Player of the Year-level defense throughout the majority of his prime. However, his candidacy is vulnerable for similar reasons as Wembanyama’s potential challenges; he will not be playing for a top-five defense and is unlikely to come close. Last season, the Lakers finished 17th and made no significant improvements at the point of attack, their primary weakness. JJ Redick has committed to prioritizing offense in his starting lineup. If the Lakers enjoy a successful season, it will be due to Davis transforming a poor defense into an average one and elevating an already good offense. Although the odds on Davis are considerably longer than those for Wembanyama, I wouldn’t outright dismiss a small wager. However, given that he has played 65 games or the equivalent shortened-season amount in just two of the last six seasons, I personally will refrain from betting. But if you believe the Lakers will bolster their defense, feel free to take that risk.
I’m ambivalent about Bam Adebayo (+1700). He shares some of the ”he’s due” sentiment akin to Davis and has similarly voiced his discontent over being overlooked, yet he plays for a stronger defensive team under a reliable defensive coach. Moreover, he is younger and more resilient. Both the metrics and the eye test indicate he deserves consideration for Defensive Player of the Year. I do not have a strong reason not to support Adebayo, except for the aspect of resource allocation. As I will elaborate, I prefer other candidates, and selecting numerous contenders for a single award can limit profitability. History suggests Adebayo may receive the “always a bridesmaid” treatment. Whether he deserves better is debatable, and if you believe he does, I won’t oppose your choice.
However, my top two picks in this category are Chet Holmgren (+1800) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (+2500). As Michael Pina from The Ringer recently outlined, Oklahoma City’s defense has the potential to be historic. The straightforward explanation is that the Thunder ranked No. 4 last season and added the second- and fifth-ranked defensive players based on EPM statistics during the offseason. The only significant rotation player they lost, Josh Giddey, was their weakest defender by EPM among those who participated in over half of their games. Essentially, they replaced one poor defender with two excellent ones. Depending on how much value you attribute to Cason Wallace’s potential and the turnovers generated by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, one could argue they boast six players worthy of All-Defense recognition. Holmgren’s defensive profile is clear; he is poised to block numerous shots and is surprisingly effective on the perimeter. Ultimately, his primary argument will center on being the “main rim-protector for the best team,” a role that historically places players in contention for the award.
Jaren Jackson Jr. won the award in 2023, but this achievement has been overshadowed by a lackluster FIBA World Cup showing and a season plagued by injuries for the Grizzlies. Let’s not forget: Jackson is one of only two players, alongside Wembanyama, to achieve five blocks per 100 possessions while logging over 1,500 total minutes since the 2015-16 season. Last season, Jackson was forced to play center, but his defensive prowess shines as a roaming power forward. Zach Edey can take over the defensive role of Steven Adams for Memphis. This season, Jackson will return to his preferred position, and the Grizzlies had impressive defensive ratings, finishing No. 3 and No. 6 in the two seasons before last year’s struggles. Jackson stands as the “great numbers on a great defense” candidate.
The long shots
The following players boast odds longer than +2500
To be transparent, Evan Mobley shouldn’t actually be included in this category. His odds are currently at +800 with Caesars. However, we are referencing the longest available odds, and for reasons unknown, BetRivers is listing Mobley at +3000 as of now. I can’t clarify that inconsistency, but if you were considering placing a bet on Mobley, it’s worth noting that there’s a questionable line you could take advantage of. Mobley finished third in 2023 (and he was my pick at the time), benefiting from the fact that he isn’t the sole elite rim protector in Cleveland. While it may not be ideal for him to continue sharing minutes with Jarrett Allen in the long run, it does mean that Cleveland will maintain solid defensive play during his rest periods. This factor is significant in striving for a top-five defensive ranking, and he stands out as the best perimeter defender among the bigs we’ve discussed.
On the topic of perimeter defense, I’m intrigued by the longer-shot options of OG Anunoby (+4000) and Herb Jones (+7000). Their situations are quite comparable. They are both primarily wing defenders, though their rosters will require them to defend some centers as well. If their teams excel defensively, much of the credit will likely be attributed to them. While I usually don’t endorse betting on perimeter players (victories in this category are rare), it’s important to note that there are often many bigs in the running. A perimeter player can more easily establish a unique role. For that reason, I would also suggest a +10000 bet on Jalen Suggs. He may not be the top defender on the Magic, but Jonathan Isaac’s limited playing time makes it unlikely he can claim the award. In all these scenarios, you’re backing players who could potentially lead a top defensive team. Given how closely this award aligns with the best five defenses, that’s a strategy I typically support at these odds.
My final ambitious pick is another former award winner. Golden State’s roster is now more focused on defense than in previous years, and despite his age, I can’t overlook Draymond Green at +15000 across several betting platforms. They ranked among the top five defensively when Green was on the court last season, and De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson provide significant defensive upgrades over Klay Thompson and Chris Paul. Achieving a top-five defensive ranking throughout the entire season is challenging, but at 150-to-1, we have an opportunity to back what may be one of this generation’s premier defenders. That presents a great value.
Why Betting on Victor Wembanyama for NBA Defensive Player of the Year Might Not Be Worth It
Understanding the NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award
The NBA Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) award is one of the most coveted individual accolades in basketball. It recognizes exceptional defensive skills, including shot-blocking, rebounding, and perimeter defense. While Victor Wembanyama, the highly touted rookie, possesses immense potential, there are several reasons why betting on him for DPOY might not be a sound investment.
Factors to Consider When Betting on DPOY
When placing a bet on any player for the NBA Defensive Player of the Year, it’s essential to consider various factors:
- Player Performance: The player’s overall defensive statistics, including steals, blocks, and defensive efficiency ratings.
- Team Success: Often, players on teams with better records are favored for awards.
- Experience and Consistency: Established players with a history of defensive excellence often have an edge.
- Media Attention: Players who receive higher media visibility may garner more votes.
Victor Wembanyama’s Defensive Potential
Victor Wembanyama has drawn comparisons to elite defenders like Rudy Gobert and Dikembe Mutombo due to his height (7’2”) and wingspan. His natural shot-blocking ability and agility make him an exciting prospect in the league. However, potential alone is not enough to secure a DPOY award.
Strengths of Wembanyama
- Shot-Blocking Ability: Wembanyama averaged 3.5 blocks per game in his last season overseas, showcasing his elite rim protection.
- Defensive Versatility: His ability to guard multiple positions could make him a transformative player defensively.
- High Basketball IQ: Wembanyama has displayed an understanding of defensive schemes and positioning, which is crucial for success in the NBA.
Concerns Regarding Wembanyama’s Defensive Game
- Rookie Learning Curve: The transition from international play to the NBA is significant. Wembanyama will face quicker, more skilled opponents who may exploit his inexperience.
- Injury Risk: Given his size, Wembanyama is susceptible to injuries, which could limit his playing time and impact his defensive statistics.
- Team Dynamics: He will be adapting to a new system and teammates, which could affect his on-court chemistry and defensive cohesion.
Case Studies: Previous Winners and Trends
Examining past winners of the DPOY award provides insight into the factors that contribute to success in this category.
| Year | Player | Team | Defensive Stats (Blocks/Stls) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Marcus Smart | Boston Celtics | 1.7 / 1.2 |
| 2021 | Rudy Gobert | Utah Jazz | 2.1 / 0.7 |
| 2020 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| 2019 | Rudy Gobert | Utah Jazz | 2.3 / 0.7 |
The Impact of Team Success
Historically, players from top-performing teams have a better chance of winning the DPOY award. For instance, Marcus Smart’s recognition in 2022 coincided with the Celtics’ strong season. With the San Antonio Spurs still in the rebuilding phase, Wembanyama’s team’s success may not be sufficient to bolster his candidacy.
Practical Tips for Betting on DPOY
If you’re considering betting on defensive players, keep these tips in mind:
- Monitor Player Trends: Stay updated on player performances and injuries throughout the season.
- Evaluate Team Strength: Consider the team’s overall performance when analyzing potential DPOY candidates.
- Assess Media Coverage: Pay attention to players who are being discussed frequently, as media narratives can influence voting.
- Look for Underrated Candidates: Sometimes, players who consistently perform well may not receive the same spotlight but can be strong bets.
First-Hand Experience: Observations from the Court
As a basketball analyst, I’ve observed several games featuring Wembanyama. While he showcases fantastic potential, there are moments when he struggles with foul trouble, particularly against aggressive offensive players. This aspect could hinder his overall defensive contributions if he cannot stay on the court.
Comparison with Other Rookies
Wembanyama is not the only rookie making waves in the NBA. Players like Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller are also capturing attention. Evaluating the defensive capabilities of these players may provide a clearer picture of the DPOY landscape.
| Player | Height | Projected Defensive Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 7’2″ | 2.2 BPG / 0.9 SPG |
| Scoot Henderson | 6’2″ | 0.5 BPG / 1.5 SPG |
| Brandon Miller | 6’9″ | 0.7 BPG / 0.8 SPG |
Conclusion: Weighing the Risks
While Victor Wembanyama has the talent to be a future DPOY candidate, several factors including his rookie status, potential injury risks, and team dynamics make betting on him for this award a gamble. As the season unfolds, keeping an eye on his development, as well as the performance of other defensive players, will be crucial for any betting strategy.
