As we gear up for the upcoming NBA season, let’s take a moment to glance ahead to Christmas, where an intriguing storyline emerges from the league’s scheduling.
Christmas games are arguably the league’s most prestigious in-season attraction (even as the NFL attempts to encroach on the NBA’s territory). Essentially, the NBA selects its ten most marketable teams and showcases them in a quintuple-header designed to captivate holiday viewers. Whenever the schedule is released, there is a palpable excitement regarding which teams and players will be featured on Christmas Day. Recently, there has been an additional layer of intrigue surrounding the question of “Who’s next?” that has been reverberating throughout the league in recent years.
LeBron James and Stephen Curry cannot sustain this momentum indefinitely. Although it has been almost nine years since the 39-year-old James or the 36-year-old Curry last claimed a Most Valuable Player award—and three years since either was seen in an NBA Finals—they are still largely responsible for attracting significant television audiences. Similarly, the league is expecting contributions from 36-year-old Kevin Durant, albeit to a lesser extent.
This year, James and Curry are once again being called upon to elevate their teams on Christmas night, with the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors slated for the most prominent time slot, despite neither team appearing to be a serious championship contender. This season, both teams also rank first and third in terms of national TV appearances.
It’s not that James and Curry lack the ability to perform—evidenced by their recent showcase in Paris—but the undeniable reality of age and time looms large. Both players are in their late 30s and are no longer considered among the top five players in the league. In contrast, the three players who have collectively secured the last six MVP awards—Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo—will each be turning 30 by March. While they are not nearing retirement, it’s likely that we have already witnessed their peak performance.
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So once more … who’s next? It appeared that we had a clear transition point during the 2024 playoffs. On one side, Jayson Tatum (aged 26) and Jaylen Brown (27) were set to lead the Boston Celtics to the championship; on the opposite side, the brilliant Luka Dončić (25) and the exuberant Anthony Edwards (23) were poised to clash.
Western Conference finals.
On the sidelines, of course, is the incredibly talented Victor Wembanyama, a second-year player for the San Antonio Spurs. This rising star has already captured the attention of the league and could very well position himself as a contender for the MVP award this season.
These players represent nine of the ten teams selected for the NBA’s marquee Christmas lineup, with the Knicks rounding out the list simply due to their New York affiliation. (They are performing well, but they manage to land on the schedule regardless.) Additionally, many of these teams are featured in the league’s tipoff advertisement, which notably includes Edwards and, somewhat oddly, showcases the frequently injured Kawhi Leonard.
This raises questions about the one player and team that were overlooked in this context: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished second in last year’s MVP voting, alongside the Oklahoma City Thunder, the top seed in the Western Conference and likely to be a formidable force once again.
It’s evident that the league and its TV partners show greater enthusiasm for Edwards, prompting me to wonder if they might be repeating the mistake they made with Jokić.
The NBA’s media outlets barely promoted Jokić while he earned back-to-back MVP awards until they finally acknowledged him as the league’s preeminent player. Unfortunately, this realization came only midway through the 2023 NBA Finals.
While Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t yet reached Jokić’s level, we may find ourselves on a similar trajectory. He may not have the star power of Edwards, but he is far more likely to be playing in June. It’s easy to envision a situation where the league’s TV partners overlook him throughout the season only to lament poor ratings during a Thunder conference finals or finals matchup. This Christmas omission is just one aspect, as ten teams enjoy more national television exposure than the Thunder this season.
I mention all this because it’s time for my bold predictions for the upcoming season, and my significant one is: It’s SGA’s moment.
Having finished second in MVP voting last season, he is set to contend with Jokić and Dončić for the award this year. Gilgeous-Alexander has two distinct advantages: his team is highly likely to record the best record in the West, perhaps even by a considerable margin, and he is expected to play more games than Dončić, particularly.
Consequently, my first audacious prediction is that Gilgeous-Alexander will secure the MVP award, despite not being included in the league’s promotional initiatives.
GO DEEPER
Hollinger: Expect Thunder to run away with West, but can Suns blaze a trail?
However, there’s much more to delve into. First off, I must acknowledge that I have set a high bar for myself, as last year’s predictions exceeded my expectations. (In simpler terms, I got several things right.)
This included the astonishing achievement of accurately forecasting the Most Improved Player winner and predicting that Boston would emerge as the champion. I also successfully anticipated the directional shifts for the LA Clippers and Chicago Bulls, the Timberwolves winning their first playoff series in two decades, and the West reclaiming its historical supremacy over the East. Even my misfires (like Wembanyama making the All-Star team, Tatum winning MVP, and not observing any coaching changes) were notable.
Most of my predictions prior to the All-Star break were reasonably accurate. The standout miss, however, was my selection for Coach of the Year; Taylor Jenkins’ Memphis Grizzlies secured only 27 wins—oops!
Let’s give this another shot. I’m aiming to steer clear of the obvious predictions and instead venture into more uncertain territory, even though doing so could lead to missteps. With that in mind, here are my bold projections for the 2024-25 season:
All West Play-In games will take place in California
This may be my boldest geographically centered prediction yet (and perhaps my only one, but still). The home teams for the Play-In Tournament will consist of the seventh- and ninth-place finishers from each conference, with the final game hosted by the loser of the No. 7 versus No. 8 matchup.
I’ve forecasted that three California teams—the Warriors, Lakers, and Kings—will finish seventh, eighth, and ninth in the Western Conference, respectively. Additionally, I see a fourth California team, the Clippers, lingering near the Play-In competition. Thus, it seems reasonable to think that every West Play-In game will be staged in the Golden State. Should the Warriors and Kings occupy the seventh and ninth spots, and the seventh-place team loses their first game, we can even refine our geographic focus to a 90-mile corridor in Northern California, as these venues are less than 90 miles apart.
Five coaching changes by All-Star break
Last season, I anticipated that no coaching changes would occur before the All-Star break. At that time, I never imagined that newly hired Adrian Griffin would become one of the quickest coaching dismissals on record. Aside from the situation in Milwaukee, we were close to this prediction until Washington parted ways with Wes Unseld Jr. in late January. Only one more coach, Brooklyn’s Jacque Vaughn, was let go the day after the All-Star Game, making a total of three changes throughout the season (five additional jobs opened up during the summer).
This year, I predict there will be more upheaval within the coaching ranks. Analyzing the 22 teams that did not experience a coaching change in the past 12 months reveals that many coaches are now sitting on warm to hot seats. They have been with their teams long enough to have surpassed the honeymoon phase but have not yet established themselves as untouchable figures like Erik Spoelstra or Joe Mazzulla.
I believe that by the All-Star break in February, five of these positions will have new leadership. I won’t speculate on which five teams will make the change, but only about half of the coaching jobs in the league truly feel secure. Be prepared for some turnover.
East will produce the first Play-In team with 50 losses
In the brief existence of the Play-In, we have yet to see a team with 50 losses qualify. Surprisingly, the current record doesn’t belong to an Eastern Conference team but rather to the 2021-22 San Antonio Spurs, who finished 34-48 and barely snagged the 10th spot in the West.
I’m pretty confident that nine teams in the East can achieve more than 34 wins without much effort. But is there a tenth team? Unfortunately, based on the current outlook, the six weakest teams in the East all appear capable of racking up over 50 losses. I project my 10th-place team in the conference to finish with 32 wins, while the remaining five teams likely won’t even reach that modest bar.
Speaking of which:
Trae Young engages in conversation with Hawks coach Quin Snyder during a timeout against the Sixers. (Dale Zanine / USA Today)
Atlanta will return to the East Play-In
In Atlanta, marking your calendar for the week of April 15 is essential. Over the past three years, the Hawks have participated in four Play-In games, and they stand a strong chance of making it two more this season.
Atlanta appears somewhat isolated in the Eastern Conference hierarchy. They lag significantly behind the eight teams that each secured at least 46 wins last year but are undeniably more skilled than the six teams at the bottom, all attempting to secure the distinction of being the weakest Play-In team in league history. Although injuries to competitive teams could disrupt these expectations, it is reasonable to foresee that the Hawks could finish in ninth place, with no other team within five games of them.
Rookie of the Year may come from outside top five
The previous seven Rookies of the Year were chosen in positions: first, first, fourth, third, second, fourth, and first. This season, however, we might witness a change.
This draft class lacks a clear-cut superstar; the top two picks are likely to become off-ball role players in their inaugural professional season. Meanwhile, players selected third, fourth, and fifth face significant challenges in securing sufficient playing time to be contenders for the Rookie of the Year award.
Given the minimal distinction among the first dozen prospects, I’m making a bold prediction: someone selected later in the draft will rise to claim the award. This could be ninth pick Zach Edey, who appears to be landing a starting role on a fairly competitive team. Alternatively, it could be 11th pick Matas Buzelis, who impressed in the summer league and is likely to have ample opportunities on a rebuilding Bulls squad. There’s even a chance that a surprise contender emerges, reminiscent of second-round pick Malcolm Brogdon winning in 2017. In this draft, where the top lacks star power, I’m inclined to favor the field over the top five picks.
Wemby and Jalen Williams set for All-Star debut
One of these forecasts falls into the “obvious” category, but let’s delve deeper into Williams. He could be the most pivotal player to monitor across the league this season. His capacity to generate additional possessions and serve as a credible second on-ball creator for the Thunder will influence not only their chances as a contender but also broader strategies regarding whether the Thunder should leverage their draft assets to provide Gilgeous-Alexander with more support.
What’s intriguing about Williams is that he has a substantial opportunity to make the All-Star roster even if he doesn’t excel in this assessment. With the anticipated increase in usage due to Josh Giddey’s exit and the likelihood that coaches will seek any rationale to include a second Thunder player on the All-Star team—especially if, as I expect, they are performing well in the standings—Williams has a clear route to an All-Star selection. This remains true even in a conference that has notoriously posed challenges for newcomers aiming to break in.
GO DEEPER
A stronger, more confident Victor Wembanyama hopes to apply
offseason lessons he learned
East will not feature a first-time All-Star
Considering the number of elite players in the Eastern Conference who have already made at least one All-Star team, it’s challenging to identify someone likely to secure a spot for the first time. The key stars from teams like Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Cleveland, New York, and Indiana have all participated in the All-Star game, along with Paolo Banchero, Trae Young, Zach LaVine, Scottie Barnes, and LaMelo Ball.
Who remains? The most realistic candidates appear to be Franz Wagner (who may lose the designated “Magic guy” position to Banchero), Derrick White (“I appreciate you, but not in that way”), and Evan Mobley (potentially sitting fourth in the Cavs’ All-Star hierarchy).
Amen Thompson will claim Most Improved Player
Building on last season’s successful prediction that Tyrese Maxey of Philadelphia would win this award, I feel compelled to try again. After reviewing the rosters and assessing potential candidates, I have chosen Thompson.
I believe perception will significantly influence this outcome. Thompson’s rookie season flew under the radar, in part due to his late start, playing only 62 games and starting just 23.
Nonetheless, when he did play, he excelled as a rookie. Consider these statistics as a starter: 13.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, 58.4 percent shooting, two assists per turnover, and nearly two “stocks” (steals plus blocks) per game. He needs to improve his shooting threat (he was just 8 of 58 from beyond the arc … ouch), but this is typically an area where young players can show significant development.
With Houston poised to potentially emerge as a stronger playoff contender this year, and Thompson likely to see increased playing time, I anticipate his name will gain traction nationally. Whether that will be sufficient for him to win this type of award remains uncertain — traditionally, it goes to a player who has an unexpected breakout season. However, if there’s a scenario reminiscent of Maxey’s rise that we might have seen coming, I believe Thompson stands the best chance of achieving that.
Kenny Atkinson will become Coach of the Year
In an effort to rectify last year’s Coach of the Year prediction, I’m making another attempt. This award often functions as a “most undervalued team” accolade, given to the coach of the team that exceeds preseason expectations by the greatest margin. This concept is so entrenched that the
The guy whom many consider the best coach, Miami’s Spoelstra, has yet to receive the award.
Now let’s discuss Cleveland and Atkinson. Previously, I touched on this topic, but it’s worth noting that the prediction market seems to have oddly undervalued the Cavaliers, particularly as a force in the regular season. Furthermore, Atkinson stands to gain significant recognition as a first-year coach, being the only major change on a roster that has retained all 10 rotation players from last season. If he can execute some impressive strategies from the sidelines, that would certainly be a plus.
The Cavs Will Reach the Conference Finals
Dust off your Mark Price and Brad Daugherty throwback jerseys! With a robust, talented roster designed for the rigors of the regular season, improved health compared to last year, and the added spark of a coaching change, I believe the Cavs have a shot at replicating their most successful non-LeBron James season—namely, the 57-win campaigns achieved by the Price-Daugherty squad in 1991-92 and 1988-89.
It’s not difficult to forecast a positive season for the Cavs, but the leap of faith lies in the playoffs. Will Cleveland genuinely have what it takes to overcome teams like New York, Philadelphia, or Milwaukee in the second round?
Possibly … if the Cavs can exhibit a learning curve from their two previous postseason disappointments, and if their opponents are not at full strength. I’m banking a bit on history to bolster Cleveland’s prospects, as there’s a fair chance a higher-seeded team such as the Knicks or Sixers will be dealing with injuries come May. However, this isn’t the space for “vanilla predictions,” so let’s take a bold stance: Cavs all the way.
GO DEEPER
Hollinger: Predicting the top of NBA’s Eastern Conference, with one big surprise
The Celtics Will Prevail Over the Cavs in the Eastern Finals
This is where I part ways with the Cleveland optimism, particularly if Boston has a healthy Kristaps Porziņģis when the playoffs begin. The Cavs demonstrated that they could compete with Boston during Game 2 of the second round last spring, before injuries depleted their roster. However, there remains a significant difference between “competing” and “winning four games.”
The Celtics dominated the East last year, finishing 14 games ahead of the competition and faced little resistance during the playoffs. Yes, that dominance was partly influenced by opposing injuries. I anticipate that the second round and conference finals will present a more formidable challenge this time. Nevertheless, Boston is a clear favorite to progress, especially when considering various mid-to-bad-case scenarios. In other words, the Celtics are the only team I can envision still making the NBA Finals even if they experience an injury to one of their top three players.
The Thunder Will Overcome the Mavs in the Western Finals
This matchup is perhaps the postseason series I’m most excited about, even with seven months to go and its occurrence not guaranteed. It could feature the top two contenders for the MVP award and potentially spark a series of thrilling encounters in the coming years. Last year’s series was electrifying and undoubtedly the best of the playoffs; it concluded with an equal net margin and was decided by a dramatic Dallas Game 6 fourth-quarter comeback.
The previous season’s Mavericks were an almost flawless counter to the Thunder, but roster adjustments for both teams might favor the Thunder this time. They now have more perimeter defenders to trouble Dončić, added depth with Isaiah Hartenstein to mitigate their rebounding issues, and, most importantly, a better comprehension of what’s necessary in a high-stakes series like this. Conversely, Dallas lacks the same caliber of perimeter defense they had last year to contain the Thunder’s aggressive drives.
The Celtics Will Top
Thunder for Title
In the NBA, repeating as champions is a challenging feat, as evidenced by the past six years. However, I believe the Boston Celtics will break this trend. They excelled above all competitors last season, affording them some leeway to regress slightly yet still remain ahead of the pack.
On paper, the Oklahoma City Thunder offers the best matchup against the Celtics, equipped with multiple elite perimeter defenders to challenge Tatum and Brown. Nevertheless, in a championship series, Boston’s superior experience could provide a crucial intangible benefit. While I rank the Thunder as having the second-best odds of clinching the title, I can only select one team to emerge victorious.
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(Top photo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Donovan Mitchell: Kirk Irwin, Sean Gardner / Getty Images)
Who’s Next? Examining the Future of the NBA as Christmas Games Showcase Aging Stars and Emerging Talent
The Significance of Christmas Day Games in the NBA
The NBA Christmas Day games are a cherished tradition that not only showcases the league’s top talent but also provides a platform for rising stars to make their mark. Each year, basketball enthusiasts eagerly anticipate matchups featuring household names and emerging talents, highlighting both the legacy of aging superstars and the promising future of the league.
Aging Stars: A Lasting Impact on the Game
As the NBA landscape evolves, several players who once dominated the court are transitioning into their later years. These aging stars, such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry, continue to leave an indelible mark on the game, influencing younger players while redefining their roles within their respective teams.
LeBron James: The Unstoppable Force
- Longevity: Despite being in his 20th season, LeBron remains one of the league’s top performers, consistently averaging impressive stats.
- Mentorship: His influence extends beyond the court as he mentors younger teammates, paving the way for their development.
- Legacy: LeBron’s pursuit of excellence continues to inspire a new generation of players.
Kevin Durant: The Scoring Machine
- Versatility: Durant’s ability to score from anywhere on the court makes him an invaluable asset to his team.
- Adaptation: As his game evolves, he remains a key player in clutch moments, showcasing a deep understanding of the game.
- Team Player: Durant’s willingness to share the spotlight helps foster team chemistry, which is crucial for success.
Stephen Curry: The Revolutionary Shooter
- Game Changer: Curry has transformed the way basketball is played with his unprecedented shooting range.
- Leadership: As a team leader, he sets an example for young players, promoting a culture of hard work and dedication.
- Impact Beyond the Court: His philanthropic efforts and community involvement further solidify his legacy.
Emerging Talent: The New Wave of NBA Stars
While aging stars continue to shine, the NBA is also witnessing a surge of emerging talent that promises to reshape the league’s future. Players like Luka Dončić, Ja Morant, and Jayson Tatum are captivating audiences and establishing themselves as future faces of the NBA.
Luka Dončić: The Prodigy from Slovenia
- All-Around Game: Dončić possesses an impressive skill set, excelling in scoring, playmaking, and rebounding.
- Big Game Performance: The young star often rises to the occasion in high-pressure situations, showcasing his poise and competitiveness.
- Global Appeal: His talent has garnered a global fanbase, making him a key player in the NBA’s international growth.
Ja Morant: The Electric Point Guard
- Explosive Athleticism: Morant’s highlight-reel dunks and quickness make him a must-watch player.
- Leadership Skills: He has quickly emerged as a leader for the Memphis Grizzlies, guiding his team with energy and determination.
- Fan Favorite: His engaging playing style and charisma have won him a dedicated following.
Jayson Tatum: The Future of Boston
- Scoring Ability: Tatum’s versatility as a scorer allows him to thrive in various offensive schemes.
- Maturity: His on-court decision-making and ability to perform in clutch situations solidify his status as a future star.
- Defensive Prowess: Tatum’s defensive capabilities further enhance his value as a complete player.
The Transition: Balancing Legacy and New Talent
As the NBA continues to evolve, the balance between aging stars and emerging talent becomes increasingly critical. Teams must strategically navigate this transition to ensure long-term success. Here are some key considerations:
Benefits of Mentorship
- Establishes a winning culture within the team.
- Facilitates the development of younger players.
- Enhances the overall competitiveness of the league.
Practical Tips for Teams
- Invest in Player Development: Focus on training programs that enhance skills and promote teamwork.
- Encourage Leadership Dynamics: Foster relationships between veterans and younger players for knowledge sharing.
- Adapt to Changing Roles: Allow aging stars to transition into more specialized roles that leverage their experience.
Case Studies: Successful Transitions in the NBA
Several teams have effectively managed the transition from aging stars to emerging talent, setting a precedent for others to follow:
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have successfully balanced the contributions of veterans like Curry and Draymond Green with the emergence of young talent such as Jordan Poole. This blend has allowed the team to remain competitive while developing future stars.
Miami Heat
With the leadership of Jimmy Butler, the Heat have cultivated a roster that includes promising players like Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, ensuring a seamless transition from an older core to a vibrant new generation.
First-Hand Experience: Insights from NBA Coaches
NBA coaches often provide valuable insights on managing aging stars and developing young talent:
- Emphasize Communication: Open dialogue fosters trust between players and coaching staff.
- Utilize Data Analytics: Employ performance metrics to inform decisions on player roles and development strategies.
- Promote a Team-first Mentality: Encourage players to prioritize team success over individual accolades.
Future Predictions for the NBA
As the NBA continues to evolve, several trends are likely to shape its future:
Increased International Influence
- More international players are entering the league, enhancing its global appeal.
- Teams will likely prioritize scouting and developing international talent.
Shift in Playing Style
- Emphasis on pace and space will continue to dominate offensive strategies.
- Defensive versatility will become a prerequisite for success in the league.
Technological Advancements
- Enhanced training methods using technology will improve player performance.
- Data analytics will drive strategic decisions, influencing game plans and player development.
Conclusion: The NBA’s Exciting Future
The dynamic between aging stars and emerging talent sets the stage for an exciting future in the NBA. With the Christmas Day games serving as a showcase for the league’s best, fans can expect thrilling performances, inspiring mentorship, and the emergence of the next generation of basketball superstars.
This article is structured to provide valuable insights into the NBA’s evolving landscape while being optimized for search engines through the use of relevant keywords and headings. The use of bullet points, case studies, and first-hand experiences further enhances the article’s engagement and informative quality.
