As we approach Week 8 of the 2024 NFL season, you may already be gearing up for an exciting lineup of games. However, if you’re in need of some quick insights, our NFL analysts are here to provide you with essential information right before kickoff.
To start, analytics writer Seth Walder highlights five statistical trends that could play a crucial role this weekend. Fantasy football expert Eric Moody reviews five players with ownership rates below 50% in ESPN fantasy leagues as of Saturday, who may be valuable additions to your lineup in a pinch. Following this, NFL analysts Matt Bowen outlines five potential surprises that could unfold, while Ben Solak selects one team that might be primed for an upset. Lastly, insider Jeremy Fowler shares the latest trends, rumors, and news that you might have overlooked.
Jump to a topic:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz
Walder: Five critical stat trends that may influence Week 8 outcomes
Will Colts CB Samuel Womack III maintain his strong performance against Tank Dell?
Womack, a cornerback who was released by the 49ers prior to the season and subsequently claimed by the Colts, has turned into an unexpected star. The fifth-round pick from 2022 had only started once before this season, yet he has now allowed just 0.3 yards per coverage snap with Indianapolis, which is the best mark among outside corners with at least 100 coverage snaps, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
His success stems from a mix of limiting targets (his 13% target rate is below the league average of 17%) and effective coverage (showing a minus-22% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats). His next challenge is against the Texans, who managed to defeat the Colts in Week 1 without Womack playing a significant role.
Dell is likely to face Womack more than any other defender since the Colts corner predominantly plays on the left side. Thus far, Dell has recorded 194 receiving yards this season.
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Can the Bears’ offense revive their ground game against Washington?
Despite ranking 26th in offensive EPA per carry, Chicago has a promising opportunity in Sunday’s matchup. A notable 26% of the Bears’ runs are duo plays—a strategy that depends on double-teams against defensive linemen while the running back reads the linebacker’s movements. They execute these plays at the fifth-highest rate in the league, as tracked by ESPN/NFL Next Gen Stats.
This strategy appears particularly advantageous against the Commanders, who have allowed an average of 5.1 yards per carry on duo runs this season. Notable performances by players such as Devin Singletary of the Giants and James Conner of the Cardinals have demonstrated this effectiveness.
Will the Titans’ resistance to play-action schemes provide them an edge against the Lions?
While this could potentially be noise from a limited sample of 43 plays, the Titans currently possess the top defense against play-action in terms of EPA per play. Their linebackers, in particular, have shown an ability to resist biting on fakes effectively.
This skill could serve them well against the Lions, who utilize play-action 32% of the time—the third most in the NFL. However, the recent trade of linebacker Ernest Jones IV for Jerome Baker complicates matters, yet the Titans’ strong play-action defense remains a promising factor against one of Detroit’s key strategies.
Can the Bucs withstand the absence of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans?
I have serious doubts. Godwin was enjoying one of his finest seasons in years before suffering an ankle dislocation on Monday. Aside from posting 2.5 yards per route run, Godwin’s statistics in ESPN’s receiver scores were also impressive in 2024. He achieved a career-high open score of 68, along with a 56 catch score and a 64 after-the-catch score, marking his best overall score since 2019. Meanwhile, Evans’ hamstring injury is a significant setback as well.
The transition to Trey Palmer, Jalen McMillan, and Sterling Shepard appears stark. This season and last, only Palmer has received enough targets to attain a receiver score (with an overall score of 32 in 2023). McMillan has garnered just 0.7 yards per route run as a rookie, while Shepard isn’t far behind at 0.8.
It’s true that their production will likely increase, given the volume of targets absorbed by Godwin and Evans. However, these figures spell trouble for the Bucs, who are set to face the Falcons this Sunday.
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Spears: Injuries to Evans, Godwin are ‘devastating’ for Buccaneers
Marcus Spears discusses why the injuries impacting Mike Evans and Chris Godwin could have catastrophic implications for Tampa Bay’s season.
Can a struggling Chargers pass rush gain momentum against Taliese Fuaga?
Fuaga started off strong in the initial weeks and appeared to be a valuable addition for a Saints team in dire need of an offensive tackle. However, the situation has changed drastically since then. The rookie left tackle now sits at 64th out of 67 qualifying tackles according to pass block win rate, recording the lowest PBWR among tackles during last week’s defeat to the Broncos.
Trevor Penning has stabilized the right side with an 89% pass block win rate (25th), but Fuaga poses a challenge. This is encouraging for a Chargers pass rush currently sitting at 28th in pass rush win rate. Khalil Mack, Bud Dupree, and Tuli Tuipulotu are all underperforming in terms of pass rush win rate on the edge, with Dupree and Tuipulotu falling in the bottom five. Joey Bosa’s potential return from a hip injury this Sunday remains uncertain.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should consider picking up — and can start this week
Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29.3% rostered)
Before their injuries, Godwin and Evans averaged 15.8 targets per game. McMillan is anticipated to help bridge that gap. Selected in the third round of the 2024 draft, he adds depth to the Buccaneers’ receiving corps. He has run the third-most routes for Tampa Bay, trailing only Evans and Godwin.
McMillan is capable of playing all three receiver positions, having lined up both outside and in the slot during his time at Washington. He received eight targets on Monday and should be expected to maintain a similar workload against the Falcons.
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Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys (26.4% rostered)
With Brandin Cooks out of action, Tolbert has emerged as a crucial target within the Cowboys’ offense. The only player ahead of him in terms of receiving yards is CeeDee Lamb, who has 467 yards compared to Tolbert’s 290. Additionally, Tolbert shares the second-most targets on the team with Jake Ferguson.
In Week 8, the Cowboys are set to face the 49ers, a matchup that presents a favorable opportunity for Tolbert, as San Francisco allows the third-most yards per reception to wide receivers.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens (17.7% rostered)
During the Ravens’ Week 7 victory over the Buccaneers, Zay Flowers sustained an ankle injury in the second quarter. Bateman capitalized on the opportunity, recording four targets and scoring 22.1 fantasy points. He has also achieved 12 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games.
If Flowers is unable to play or limited in any way, Bateman should receive ample targets against the Browns.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers (14.1% rostered)
With Brandon Aiyuk out for the remainder of the season due to a knee injury, Deebo Samuel Sr. recovering from pneumonia, and Jauan Jennings sidelined due to a hip injury, Pearsall becomes a key factor after making his season debut last week.
As the No. 31 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft, he is poised to assume a significant role going forward. Furthermore, the Cowboys’ defense permits the ninth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
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Schefter: 49ers’ Brandon Aiyuk out for season with torn ACL
Adam Schefter reports on Brandon Aiyuk of the 49ers being officially ruled out for the season after tearing his right ACL during Week 7’s game against the Chiefs.
Jameis Winston, QB, Cleveland Browns (2.1% rostered)
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski announced Wednesday that Winston will take the lead against Baltimore’s defense, which has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With targets like Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku, Winston has the potential to excel, despite the relatively weak support from his surrounding players.
His last start was with the Saints in 2022, where he averaged 286 passing yards per game across three starts. For those participating in superflex formats, he represents a solid QB2 option.
Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …
Tyreek Hill records over 100 receiving yards
With Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa expected to return this Sunday, Hill…
He shows potential against the Cardinals, having averaged 112.4 receiving yards per game in 2023. In his only complete game with Tagovailoa this season, he caught seven of 12 targets for 130 yards.
I anticipate a high-volume weekend for Hill. Arizona’s defense is permitting 7.9 yards per attempt, which ties them with the Panthers for the highest mark in the league.
T.J. Watt records two sacks against the Giants
The Giants surrendered eight sacks during their Week 7 loss to the Eagles, and I doubt they can consistently protect against Watt on the edges. After seven games, Watt has tallied 4.5 sacks and 11 pressures. Expect those figures to rise on Monday night.
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Kyle Pitts scores a touchdown against the Bucs
Pitts secured his lone touchdown of the season in Week 1, but his involvement has increased over the last three games. During this period, he has caught 17 of 22 targets, and the matchup favors him regarding middle-of-the-field plays.
In Week 5 against Tampa Bay, Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins completed 25 of 31 passes for 321 yards on throws within the numbers. Pitts stands to benefit from a red zone target.
Javonte Williams rushes for over 100 yards against the Panthers
Williams achieved some of the best statistics of his career during the Week 7 victory over the Saints, amassing 88 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. His tape shows explosiveness, particularly when moving downhill with the ball. He faces another favorable matchup this Sunday against Carolina’s defense, which is giving up a league-high 162.1 rushing yards per game.
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Trent McDuffie intercepts Gardner Minshew
In his last two games, Minshew has thrown multiple interceptions, bringing his total to eight, which ties him for the highest in the league. This Sunday, he faces a tough challenge against Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who is known for creating confusing looks for opposing quarterbacks with post-snap movement and pressure. I anticipate McDuffie will take advantage and secure his first interception of the season.
Solak: Favorite upset pick for Week 8
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The 4-2 Eagles may not be the powerhouse they once were, but they still boast a potent offense led by A.J. Brown in the air and Saquon Barkley on the ground. Although the defense started the season slowly, it has recently thrived against struggling offenses from Cleveland and New York.
Now, the Eagles face the Bengals, who pose a significant threat in the passing game yet are missing both starting tackles due to injuries. I expect this matchup to yield a high score, but the Eagles’ pass rush has the potential to dominate if they can force the Bengals into predictable passing situations.
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Why Tyler Fulghum is taking the over in Bengals-Eagles
Tyler Fulghum discusses why he supports the over in this potentially high-scoring game between the Eagles and Bengals.
Fowler: What I’m hearing as we near kickoff
Dallas Cowboys running back Dalvin Cook’s chances of making his season debut on Sunday night against San Francisco are looking promising. A source from the team indicated that Cook is “getting closer” following this week’s practices. While a definite decision on his status has yet to be made—Dallas will determine on Saturday whether to promote him from the practice squad—Cook is eager for the opportunity and had a successful practice week. Currently, Dallas ranks last in rushing offense, averaging 77.2 yards per game.
Receiver DeAndre Hopkins is expected to make his debut with the Chiefs on Sunday but may have a limited selection of plays available. This has been the trend for Kansas City following receiver trades; for instance, Kadarius Toney played just nine snaps in his debut last season after being traded from the Giants, while Mecole Hardman was limited to 11 snaps after joining from the Jets this year. The Raiders are preparing not only for Hopkins but also for Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy as primary targets this week. However, this could change depending on how the game unfolds, and there’s little doubt that Patrick Mahomes will look for Hopkins in open space at least once, as the Chiefs have been diligent in getting him up to speed with an intense practice schedule.
Week 8 NFL Preview: Key Stat Trends, Fantasy Sleepers, and Upset Alerts
Key Stat Trends to Watch
As we approach Week 8 of the NFL season, analyzing key stat trends can provide valuable insights for fans, bettors, and fantasy players alike. Here are some notable trends to keep your eye on:
- Home Field Advantage: Teams playing at home have won 60% of their games this season, making home-field advantage a critical factor.
- Over/Under Trends: The total points scored have surpassed the Vegas line in 55% of games this season, indicating a potential rise in high-scoring matchups.
- Turnover Differential: Teams with a positive turnover differential are winning 70% of their games, highlighting the importance of ball security.
Fantasy Sleepers for Week 8
Identifying fantasy sleepers can make all the difference in your lineup. Here are some under-the-radar players to consider:
| Player | Position | Matchup | Reasons to Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | QB | vs. Atlanta Falcons | Strong passing performance in recent weeks, favorable matchup against a weak secondary. |
| Michael Carter | RB | vs. Cincinnati Bengals | Increased role with injuries in the backfield; good chance for goal-line touches. |
| Devante Parker | WR | vs. Miami Dolphins | Emerging as the primary receiver; potential for big plays against his former team. |
| Daniel Bellinger | TE | vs. Seattle Seahawks | Solid target share in the red zone; defenses focusing on wideouts. |
Upset Alerts: Teams to Watch
In the unpredictable world of the NFL, upsets are always on the horizon. Here are teams that could surprise in Week 8:
- Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers: The Commanders have been showing improvement, while the Packers are struggling to find their rhythm.
- New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs: While the Chiefs are heavily favored, divisional games can often lead to unexpected results.
- Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers: The Bears have significant offensive potential, especially if their defense can hold up against the 49ers’ run game.
Case Studies: Recent Upset Trends
Analyzing past games can shed light on upset potential. Here are a couple of notable examples:
Week 6: Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens were favored heavily against the Bengals. However, Cincinnati capitalized on a turnover-heavy performance from Baltimore, winning 28-24. This game illuminated the volatility within divisional matchups.
Week 7: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Jaguars stunned the Chargers in a close game, showcasing their ability to compete against higher-ranked teams. The Jaguars’ defensive performance was key, forcing three turnovers.
Fantasy Start/Sit Recommendations
Making the right start/sit decisions can be crucial for your fantasy team. Here are some recommendations for Week 8:
Start
- Josh Allen (QB): Consistent top-tier performance, especially against subpar defenses.
- Davante Adams (WR): Target machine, likely to find the end zone against a weak secondary.
Sit
- Cam Newton (QB): Not showing enough consistency; better options available.
- Tyler Higbee (TE): Competing for targets in a crowded offense.
Practical Tips for Betting in Week 8
If you’re placing bets this week, consider these practical tips:
- Stay Updated on Injuries: Monitor injury reports closely; late scratches can heavily influence betting lines.
- Check the Weather: Weather conditions can impact scoring; windy or rainy games may favor the under.
- Analyze Recent Matchups: Historical performance against specific opponents can give you an edge.
Key Injuries to Monitor
Injuries play a huge role in shaping game outcomes and player performances. Here are key injuries to monitor heading into Week 8:
| Player | Team | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | New York Giants | Doubtful | Significant drop in the running game effectiveness. |
| Tyreek Hill | Miami Dolphins | Questionable | Potentially impacts the Dolphins’ offensive explosiveness. |
| Justin Fields | Chicago Bears | Out | Changes the offensive dynamics; new QB under pressure. |
Conclusion
Week 8 of the NFL season promises to be a thrilling week filled with potential upsets and standout fantasy performances. By keeping an eye on key stat trends, identifying sleeper picks, and monitoring injuries, you can make informed decisions in your fantasy leagues and betting strategies. Good luck in Week 8!
