Welcome to the Week 8 Fantasy Football Playbook, ‌which commenced on Thursday with the matchup between the Vikings and‌ the ​Rams.

This column includes projections for scores, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, straightforward fantasy advice for both ‍season-long ⁢leagues and daily fantasy sports (DFS). It is designed to assist you in various decision-making scenarios, such as sit/start dilemmas, last-minute ⁤waiver wire additions, and lineup selections.

The advice is tailored for 12-team PPR⁣ leagues with‌ fairly standard scoring and lineup configurations (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST). I will frequently reference “shallow” or “deep” leagues in relation to certain starters. The charts display all players projected for a⁤ minimum of 6.0 fantasy points this week, along with all D/STs. “Matchup” is determined using a proprietary metric that considers ‍both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed ​by opposing defenses to each position thus far this season.

(Editor’s note: While projections and rankings are closely aligned, there may ‌be instances where a player’s ranking differs slightly due to additional factors such as upside or risk. This column is subject to updates over the weekend; at a minimum,⁢ rankings will be refreshed on the website, and projections will be updated‌ in-game leading up to kickoff.)

Jump to:

#BAL-CLE”>BAL-CLE ‍| ​
#TEN-DET”> TEN-DET |
#IND-HOU”> IND-HOU | ⁢
#GB-JAX”> GB-JAX |
‌ #ARI-MIA”> ARI-MIA‌ |
#NYJ-NE”> NYJ-NE | ‌
#ATL-TB”> ATL-TB
#PHI-CIN”>PHI-CIN | ​
​#NO-LAC”> NO-LAC |
#BUF-SEA”> BUF-SEA |
#CHI-WAS”> CHI-WAS |
#CAR-DEN”> CAR-DEN |
#KC-LV”> KC-LV |
⁣#DAL-SF”> DAL-SF |
#NYG-PIT”> NYG-PIT

Projected Score: Eagles 24, Bengals 24

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Saquon ‍Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith

After a disappointing Week 7, in which DeVonta Smith registered only ⁤-2 yards on his single reception, ‍he is aiming for a bounce-back performance. He received two ⁢targets following just four in ​Week 6. ​This decline in usage⁣ coincides with A.J. Brown’s return from injury and reflects the Eagles’ increased focus on the run game this season, particularly in goal-line situations. However, there is no cause for alarm. Smith has scored⁢ over 14‌ fantasy points in four out of five games and has been a top-20 fantasy WR in both of the previous two seasons. He should be considered a WR3 option for this week.

Over/Under: 48 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 53% (16th highest)

Projected Score: Ravens 28,⁢ Browns 17

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Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, David Njoku

In Week 7, Nick Chubb made his return for the 2024 season and participated in 27 snaps, which is 35% of the offensive plays for‌ Cleveland. He scored one touchdown on 11 carries, while also being targeted three times, resulting in a total of 32 yards from 12 touches. Pierre Strong Jr. (who recorded three carries and three targets over 39 snaps)‍ and D’Onta Foreman (with two carries on 10 snaps) contributed as well. Although it⁢ is expected that⁢ Chubb’s involvement will‍ increase in his second game back, Jerome Ford along‌ with Strong and​ Foreman will still have roles to play in Week 8. Given the challenging matchup against the Ravens’ formidable run defense, which allows a league-low average of 3.1 yards per carry, Chubb should be regarded primarily as a flex option.

Mark Andrews scored twice on Monday, bringing his ‌total to three​ touchdowns in the last two games. However, despite this apparent success, his situation‌ has not significantly improved. On Monday, he was ​on the ‌field for 54% of the snaps, consistent with the same percentage he’s maintained throughout the season. Notably, Andrews has not exceeded five targets⁢ in any game‍ this year, significantly below his five-season average of 7.2 targets per game. Currently, he ranks outside the top 20 tight ends in metrics such as snaps, routes, targets, and receptions; thus, until there is an increase in his ‌usage, he will be categorized as a mid-range TE2. This is even ⁢more relevant this week, as he goes up against a ⁣Cleveland defense that has yet to‍ allow a tight end to score more than 11 fantasy points in a single ⁢game.

Over/Under: 45.5 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 86% (3rd highest)

Projected Score: Lions 29, Titans 15

Lineup​ locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown

Jared Goff has delivered three straight games with over 18 fantasy points; ‌however, he is still not ⁢a reliable starting choice. The experienced quarterback is thriving on unsustainable efficiency (13.0 YPA, 7 TD, 0 INT in this span), which starkly contrasts his earlier performance of 6.8 YPA, 3 TD, and 4 INT during Weeks 1-3. Goff has minimal rushing capabilities (17 yards), making it difficult for his impressive passing stats to yield consistent fantasy results. ​This trend was evident in 2023, as he ranked 15th‌ in fantasy PPG despite amassing 4,575 passing yards and 30 touchdowns (both placing him in the top seven). With a historical best of only 10th in fantasy PPG, Goff should be viewed as a QB2 against a Titans defense that is allowing only 6.3 YPA‌ (third ⁣lowest) and a 60% completion rate (fourth lowest) this ⁣season.

Over/Under: 44.5 (8th highest)
Win Probability: ⁣ Lions 92% (Highest)

Projected Score: Dolphins 25, Cardinals 22

Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, James Conner, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

Tua Tagovailoa⁣ (concussion) is anticipated to return this week.⁢ While he is ⁤generally not ⁢considered a strong fantasy starter, he presents a streaming opportunity against ⁢an Arizona defense that has given up⁢ the fifth-most fantasy points to ‍quarterbacks, the highest YPA (8.3), and the second-highest completion​ rate (71%) this season. In his only complete game this year, Tagovailoa threw for 338 yards and‍ one touchdown in Week 1. His return is expected to boost the fantasy potential of the team’s offensive skill players, leading to Achane, Hill,⁣ and Waddle being designated as lineup locks, as all three achieved over 16 fantasy points in Miami’s Week 1 win.

Over/Under: 46.9 (5th ⁢highest)
Win Probability:

Dolphins 62% ​(12th highest)

Projected Score: ‍ Jets 23, Patriots 18

Lineup locks: Breece Hall,⁣ Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson

Hunter Henry has re-emerged as a fantasy target after accumulating a total of 30.3 fantasy points during Drake Maye’s two starts. In Week ⁤6,​ Henry recorded a 3-41-1 receiving line‌ from five targets, followed⁢ by an 8-92-0 line on nine targets in Week 7. This recent performance has propelled Henry into the conversation for streaming options, but we should remain cautious. Since the beginning of the 2023 season, he has achieved 16-plus fantasy points in six games, yet has fallen below six points on 12 occasions, with‌ four of those ⁤happening this season. This week,‌ he faces a more challenging matchup, as the Jets have not permitted any‍ tight end‌ to score 12 fantasy points in a game so far ‌this season.

Over/Under: 40.9 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Jets 69% (9th highest)

Projected Score: Buccaneers 26, Falcons 24

Lineup ⁣locks: Bijan‌ Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney

Kirk Cousins had a standout performance against the Buccaneers in Week 5, throwing for 509 yards and four touchdowns. ​However,⁣ he⁤ remains a risky option for fantasy lineups. The experienced quarterback has struggled in favorable matchups recently, failing to surpass 13‌ fantasy points in five of seven games this season, with all five finishes being at QB20 or worse. Although the Buccaneers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, they ​have faced significant passing volume (fourth-most attempts and third-most QB ​rushes). With negative-8 rushing yards this season, Cousins is an acceptable streaming candidate this week, but ⁢he isn’t a surefire ​starter.

In Week 7, Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle) both suffered injuries and will not play against the Falcons. The next ‍players in line are ‌Trey Palmer (73% of snaps last​ week), Jalen McMillan (60%), and Sterling Shepard (45%). Throughout most of ⁣the season, McMillan, a third-round rookie, has outpaced Palmer and Shepard,⁤ although ⁤he has‍ recorded⁣ only a 6-74-1 receiving ‌line on 15 targets. He could serve as your best option for deep-league flex plays, but this situation is generally not advisable to pursue.

Over/

Under: 50.4 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 58%‍ (15th highest)

Projected Score: Packers 26, Jaguars 22

Lineup locks: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, ‍Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, Tucker Kraft

Last week, with Travis Etienne Jr. out, Tank Bigsby (26 carries and one target on 39 ⁤snaps) took charge of the⁣ Jacksonville⁣ backfield, while ⁤D’Ernest Johnson (nine carries and four targets on 20 snaps) had a role as well. Bigsby clearly led in carries, gaining 118 yards and scoring two touchdowns, although he had limited involvement in‌ the passing‍ game, running only seven⁢ routes. He has received just two targets this season, the lowest among all running backs with 100 or more snaps. ⁤Nevertheless, Bigsby has been effective ‍on the ground, ‍boasting 6.2 YPC, ​which ranks second, and 3.7 YAC, placing ​first among RBs with 50 or more carries. He should only be ⁤in lineups this week if Etienne does ‍not play.

Over/Under: 47.7 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 64% (11th highest)

Projected Score: Texans‍ 23, Colts 20

Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Jonathan ​Taylor, Stefon ​Diggs,​ Tank Dell

Since both players entered⁤ the league⁤ last season, Josh Downs and Anthony Richardson ⁢have played four complete games together. Downs’​ receiving​ stats in those matches include: ⁣7-3-30-0, 3-2-34-0, 5-3-22-0, and ​most recently, 3-1-3-0.‍ Over these four games, he has ⁣averaged 4.5 fantasy PPG,⁢ a stark contrast to the 19.2 PPG he has achieved with ‍Joe Flacco this season. Downs cannot be relied upon in lineups.

Over/Under: 42.3 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 60% (14th highest)

Projected Score: Chargers 24, Saints 15

Lineup locks: J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara

With Rashid Shaheed ​on IR and Chris Olave not playing⁣ last week, the Saints’ wide receiver distribution was as follows:⁣ Bub Means (58 snaps, 5 targets), Mason Tipton (

54, 9), Cedrick Wilson Jr.‍ (46, 7) and Equanimeous St. Brown (1, 0). ‍A late-game ‌touchdown ​allowed Wilson to achieve a commendable 6-57-1 receiving line; however, no other receiver surpassed 45 yards or scored a touchdown. Spencer Rattler‍ has faced⁢ challenges (5.5 YPA), so unless there’s an unexpected return from Derek Carr this week, ‍only ⁢Olave (if he ‍successfully navigates the league’s concussion ⁣protocol) stands⁤ as a viable WR3/flex ‌option. This is particularly important against a Chargers‍ defense⁢ that ranks first in limiting ‍receptions and third in allowing the fewest fantasy points to wide ‍receivers.

Over/Under: 38.5 (14th ‍highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 80% (6th highest)

Projected Score: Bills 27, Seahawks 24

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Kenneth Walker III, James Cook, Amari Cooper, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Dalton Kincaid

With DK⁤ Metcalf (knee) likely‌ sidelined for‌ this game, Smith-Njigba and Lockett are now “lineup ⁣lock” candidates. The Seattle offense leads the league in​ passing attempts (by 16), completions ‌(by 26), and passing yards (by 161) this season. The absence of Metcalf’s 8.7⁣ targets per game creates opportunities for “JSN,” Lockett, and possibly ‍even Jake Bobo to excel. Smith-Njigba ranks first ⁤among receivers in routes run, and he is ninth in targets and receptions, whereas Lockett has achieved at⁢ least four receptions in five consecutive games. This ⁣duo will likely see an increased workload in Week 8 and should ⁤definitely be included in the lineups, even against a formidable Bills’ pass defense.

Over/Under: 50.4 (Highest)
Win Probability: Bills 61% (13th highest)

Projected Score: Broncos 24, Panthers 12

Lineup locks:‌ None

The Panthers’ defense ranks as the weakest in the league, having surrendered the highest EPA, the fourth-most QB fantasy points, and the most RB fantasy points. This matchup⁤ presents an excellent​ opportunity for the Denver offense,‌ notably featuring Bo Nix and Javonte Williams. ⁢Recently, Nix has improved, generating over 19 fantasy points in⁢ three of his last five games. Although he did not find the end zone in Week ‌7, he compensated somewhat with 75 yards.

Ground has been broken, and he now stands fourth among quarterbacks with 255 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. On the other hand, ⁤Williams’ performance this season ⁢has been inconsistent, featuring two​ games where he scored over 16 points and three where he ​fell below⁤ 6.5. However, he recently recorded two touchdowns with a total of 26.1 points against the Saints—his⁣ highest score‌ since⁣ Week 13 of 2021. Williams⁤ has achieved 16 or more touches and over 80 yards​ in three out of his last four appearances,‌ putting him on​ the RB2 radar for this week.

Over/Under: 35.8 (16th highest)
Win Probability: ​Broncos 86% (2nd highest)

Projected Score: Chiefs 23, Raiders 13

Lineup locks: Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers

JuJu Smith-Schuster left the game with a hamstring injury after his seventh snap on Sunday and will be unavailable for this⁣ week’s matchup. In his⁢ absence,⁤ Justin Watson (48 snaps, 1 target), Xavier Worthy (41, 8), Skyy Moore (32, 1), and Mecole Hardman (20, 2) shared the wide receiver⁤ duties. Together, this ​group managed a mere 19.7 fantasy points, with Hardman scoring the⁢ only touchdown on a rushing play. ⁣Worthy’s career-high of eight targets is noteworthy, ⁤but he converted them into just 19 yards. In fact, he has accumulated a total of 44 yards ​on ⁣14 targets over‌ the past two weeks. Although Worthy boasts four touchdowns this season, the high target volume in a‍ Patrick Mahomes-led offense is ⁤difficult to overlook. Nevertheless, given the inefficiency alongside​ DeAndre Hopkins’ ⁣addition ⁣and the fact that‌ the Raiders’ defense ‌hasn’t allowed a single receiver to exceed 13.2 fantasy points since Week 3, he can only be considered a ⁣flex option.

Over/Under: 36.3 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 83% (5th highest)

Projected Score: Commanders 22, Bears 21

Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore

In Week 6, ​Caleb Williams was observed as‌ the ​leading QB⁢ in fantasy scoring. He has since ‍achieved over​ 23 fantasy points ​in consecutive games. However, he has not yet become a reliable option ⁣for fantasy starters. ‍It’s important ‍to note that Chicago’s previous three opponents have been the Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars, ranking 27th, 32nd,‌ and 31st in defensive EPA, respectively. Washington’s defense is marginally better, positioned at 22nd, yet‌ has shown improvement against quarterbacks lately, allowing Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, and Andy Dalton ‌a total ‌of just 18.4 points combined, while restricting Lamar Jackson to‍ 18.9 ⁤points, marking his second-lowest score of the season. Although Williams is on‍ the rise, he is still better‍ suited as a ​bench QB2.

Over/Under: 43.7 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 72% (7th highest)

Projected Score: 49ers 26, Cowboys 21

Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Jordan Mason, CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, Jake Ferguson

In Week 7, the 49ers’ wide receiver corps faced significant challenges,⁣ as Brandon Aiyuk suffered a season-ending knee injury, while​ Samuel played only ‍three snaps⁢ due to an illness, and Jauan Jennings was absent⁢ because of a hip injury. The remaining receiver usage for the 49ers⁣ included: Ricky Pearsall (44 snaps, 5 targets), Chris⁤ Conley (40 snaps, 2 targets), and Ronnie Bell.

(21, 2) and Jacob Cowing (11, 3). There are several variables to consider here, but Jennings ⁢and Pearsall are the key names to​ focus on.

If Jennings returns this week, following a ‌remarkable 175-yard, 3-TD performance earlier this season,​ he‍ will quickly enter the WR3 conversation. Should Samuel be unavailable, Jennings⁢ would rise to a WR2‍ or ​even​ a ⁤lineup lock. First-round rookie‍ Pearsall should be on fantasy rosters, but his ​value remains as a flex option ⁢if either⁤ Samuel or Jennings is unable to play. Be aware that this is​ a Sunday ‌night game; therefore,‌ if⁣ you plan to include any of these players in your⁣ lineup, keep a close watch on⁢ all injury and illness updates before finalizing your roster on Sunday morning.

Over/Under: 46.8 (6th highest)
Win Probability: ‍ 49ers ⁤69% (8th highest)

Projected Score: Steelers 25, Giants 15

Lineup locks: Najee Harris, Malik Nabers, George Pickens

Najee Harris is a must-start this week, coming off two impressive games where he recorded over 16 touches, exceeded 100 yards, and ‌scored⁣ one touchdown. Harris has consistently managed at least 16 touches ‌in every ‍game ⁤this season. Although his 14-132-0 receiving stats raise some concerns, he ranks fourth in attempts and eighth in⁣ rushing ⁤yards. The Giants’ defense is relatively average against running backs; however, they have allowed an alarming 5.3 yards per carry, the second highest in the league. In their last outing, Saquon ​Barkley capitalized on this‍ vulnerability, scoring 26.7 fantasy points.

Over/Under: 40.5 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 84% (4th highest)

Week 8 Fantasy Football ‍Playbook:‌ Projections, Lineup Locks, and Expert Advice

Key Player Projections for Week 8

As we dive into ⁤Week 8⁣ of the NFL​ season, fantasy football enthusiasts are gearing up for critical matchups that ⁣could define their seasons. Below are some key player projections based on recent performances and matchups.

Lineup Locks for Week 8

Identifying lineup locks is crucial​ for maximizing your⁢ fantasy football performance.​ Here’s a list of players you should strongly consider starting this week:

• Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City Chiefs): With a favorable matchup against the New York Giants, Mahomes is ‌expected to put up⁣ big ​numbers.
• Dalvin Cook (RB, Minnesota Vikings): Cook⁤ has been consistent all season; he faces a Ravens defense that has struggled ​against the run.
• Tyreek Hill (WR, Miami Dolphins): Hill’s speed and ability to stretch​ the ⁣field make him a must-start against the Colts secondary.
• Travis Kelce (TE,⁤ Kansas City Chiefs): Kelce is ​Mahomes’‍ favorite target, and he should see plenty ‍of opportunities⁣ this week.

Expert Advice: Start/Sit Decisions

Making ⁣the right start/sit decisions can be the difference between a fantasy victory and a disappointing loss. Here’s what experts​ are ⁤saying about some noteworthy players:

Quarterbacks

• Justin Herbert (Los Angeles ‌Chargers): ⁢ Start. Herbert has ​been on fire and faces‌ a weak defense.
• Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos): Sit. Despite his name value, Wilson has struggled ⁤this season.

Running Backs

• James Robinson (Jacksonville Jaguars): Start. Robinson is the​ workhorse for the Jags and is facing a leaky defense.
• Gus Edwards (Baltimore Ravens): Sit. He’s not ​getting ‌enough touches to be reliable.

Wide Receivers

• A.J. ‍Brown (Tennessee Titans): Start. Brown ‌is a must-start with his ‍explosive potential.
• Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints): Sit. Injury concerns make him ⁤a risky ⁣start this week.

Tight‌ Ends

• Darren Waller (Las Vegas Raiders): ⁢ Start. Waller has been a⁤ top option for Carr.
• Tyler Higbee (Los Angeles Rams): Sit. Higbee’s production has declined recently.

Benefits of‍ Making Informed Lineup Decisions

Understanding player matchups and projections comes with numerous ⁢benefits for fantasy football players:

• Enhanced Performance: Better lineup decisions lead to improved week-to-week performance.
• Maximized Points: By identifying players with favorable matchups,⁣ you can maximize your point potential.
• Competitive Edge: Staying ​updated on ​player news and projections⁣ gives you an advantage over your competition.

Case Studies: Successful Lineup Decisions

Analyzing past ‍successful lineup ​decisions can provide valuable insights. Here are a couple of notable cases:

Case Study 1: The ⁣Rise of Underdogs

In Week 6, many fantasy owners were hesitant to start James Robinson due to ‌the return of Travis Etienne. However, ⁢those who trusted Robinson saw ‍him score 25 ‍points​ against a strong defense.

Case Study 2: The Importance of Matchups

Starting players like Darnell ‍Mooney against a weak secondary in Week 7 proved beneficial. Owners who played him‌ reaped ‌rewards⁢ as ‌Mooney caught a touchdown pass and totaled⁤ 100 yards.

Practical Tips for Week 8

Here are ‌some practical tips to ensure you make the best lineup decisions:

• Monitor ​Injury Reports: Keep an⁣ eye on ⁢player injuries leading up to game day.
• Review Matchup Statistics: Analyze how opposing defenses have performed against your players’ positions.
• Consult Expert Rankings: Utilize rankings and projections from ‍trusted sources to guide​ your decisions.
• Consider⁣ Weather Conditions: ⁢Weather can affect player performance, particularly for⁤ quarterbacks and kickers.

Expert Insights‌ for Week⁣ 8

Incorporating expert advice can ⁣significantly increase your chances of success. Here are some additional insights:

• Look for players with high target share opportunities, especially in⁣ PPR formats.
• Utilize matchups⁣ against bottom-tier defenses; these players frequently outperform⁣ expectations.
• Be wary⁣ of potential shootout games, as they‌ can‍ lead to higher⁢ scoring ⁢opportunities.

Final Thoughts ​on Week 8

As Week⁣ 8 approaches, staying informed and making strategic ‍lineup‍ decisions is paramount. By utilizing projections, identifying lineup locks, and following expert advice, you’ll ⁤set yourself⁢ up⁢ for a successful week in fantasy football.

Remember, the fantasy landscape can change rapidly; keep adjusting your strategies based on the latest news and performance trends. Good luck!