As we approach Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season, we trust you are well-prepared for the exciting slate ahead. However, if you are in need of some last-minute insights, our NFL analysts are here to provide you with the necessary information just in time.
To start, analytics writer Seth Walder analyzes five statistical trends that could be crucial this weekend. Fantasy football expert Eric Moody highlights five players who are currently rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues as of Saturday, offering potential options for those in need of a quick addition this weekend. Following that, NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies five possible surprises that may occur, while analyst Ben Solak points out one team that is on upset alert. Lastly, insider Jeremy Fowler shares the latest buzz, rumors, and news that you may have overlooked.
Jump to a topic:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz
Walder: Five critical stat trends that could influence Week 7 outcomes
Will Jayden Daniels ascend to the top of the MVP race against the Panthers?
This week, Daniels stands third in ESPN’s MVP poll, and the rookie quarterback for the Commanders could significantly enhance his chances while facing Carolina. The Panthers are currently rated as having the weakest defense in the league according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, allowing opponents to score an average of 33.8 points per game, with a QBR of 85.5 against them — both of which are the lowest in the NFL.
The Saints scored 47 points against the Panthers, while Caleb Williams recorded over 300 passing yards and an 81 QBR. Last week, the Falcons managed to put up 38 points. Daniels, sitting third in QBR with a score of 73.6 and tallying 10 total touchdowns this season, is ready for his chance to shine. Once he does, the odds of him being +1200 to win MVP may very well change (per ESPN BET).
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Will Diontae Johnson increase his trade value against the Commanders?
The need for Daniels to deliver impressive figures ties to the fact that Washington’s defense is notably weak. The Commanders consistently struggle to prevent wide receivers from finding open space. With a defensive open score of 20 (on a scale of 0-99) in ESPN’s receiver scores, they rank lowest among NFL teams.
This presents a significant mismatch for Johnson, who embodies the concept of open scoring. Johnson holds a 64 open score this season, but he has posted at least a 78 in every complete season of his career, and at least an 87 in all but one. He is expected to excel against Washington cornerback Benjamin St-Juste, who has surrendered 2.1 yards per coverage snap this season, ranking second among outside corners with a minimum of 100 coverage snaps, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
As Johnson is in the final year of his contract and plays for a team that isn’t a contender, he could attract significant trade interest. A standout performance against the Commanders would certainly boost his value.
Can the Chiefs contain San Francisco’s outside zone runs?
It’s well known that outside zone runs constitute 66% of Kyle Shanahan’s rushing plays — the second-
The Chiefs are currently allowing the second-highest rate of outside zone runs this season, only behind the Falcons, according to ESPN/NFL Next Gen Stats. However, Kansas City has been effective in limiting these specific rushes, giving up only 2.7 yards per carry against them, which is the lowest in the league.
The defensive line for the Chiefs excels at shedding blocks to disrupt running plays, with linebackers like Nick Bolton showing a notable aggressiveness in pursuing the ball carrier. If the Chiefs can successfully contain the 49ers’ rushing game, it could significantly influence what is expected to be a closely contested game.
Will new Jets playcaller Todd Downing continue to use Garrett Wilson on in-breaking routes after the Davante Adams trade?
To build on a point I made last week, I noted how previous offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett limited Wilson’s usage on his most effective routes. However, in Week 6, with Downing calling the shots, this changed significantly.
Under Hackett, deep crossers, deep overs, medium crossers, and digs made up only 9% of Wilson’s routes from Weeks 1 to 5, but this increased by 20% in the game against the Bills. The result was Wilson’s best performance of the season, with 107 receiving yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. Now, the concern is whether the addition of Adams complicates Wilson’s role or if Downing will continue to align Wilson laterally. We will have a chance to see this against the Steelers on Sunday.
2:40
Stephen A.: The Jets needed to acquire Davante Adams
Stephen A. Smith discusses why the Jets securing Davante Adams is more significant than the Bills acquiring Amari Cooper.
Can Dexter Lawrence II create enough disruption against the Eagles to secure a win?
This serves as an opportunity for me to highlight Lawrence’s achievements this season. He has recorded seven sacks in six games, tying for the second-most in the league while playing as a nose tackle. Achieving this level of production from that position is considerably more challenging compared to other leading sack artists.
Lawrence predominantly aligns in a 1-technique position (between the center and guard), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Since the start of 2023, players in the 1-technique position achieve a sack on only 0.8% of their pass rushes. In contrast, that figure rises to 2.1% for edge rushers at the 9-technique position. Therefore, Lawrence’s current production is roughly equivalent to that of an edge rusher reaching double-digit sacks by this stage.
Could the Eagles find a way to contain him on Sunday? The interior of the Eagles’ offensive line isn’t performing at its usual level. Although center Cam Jurgens boasts a solid pass block win rate of 97% (sixth best), his fellow linemen Landon Dickerson (92%) and Mekhi Becton (90%) rank 30th and 43rd among 66 qualifiers, respectively, for guards. They will face a significant challenge with Lawrence looming.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up and can start this week
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers (34.8% rostered)
Doubs scored 19.9 fantasy points last week against the Cardinals, despite receiving only four targets. He led all Packers receivers in both offensive snaps and routes run.
As Dontayvion Wicks manages a shoulder injury, Doubs is likely to see an expanded role. Wicks, Doubs, and Christian Watson generally play outside, whereas Jayden Reed functions in the slot. Doubs is expected to remain active in the upcoming Packers-Texans matchup.
Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers (28.2% rostered)
In Week 6 against the Falcons, Legette registered four targets, amassing 11.3 fantasy points. He has now secured 11 or more points in two of his last three games despite having only 15 targets overall.
After dealing with a shoulder injury against the Bears in Week 5, Legette is expected to maintain a significant role while Adam Thielen remains on IR. This week, he is set to face a Commanders defense that has conceded the 10th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
0:47
Xavier Legette’s fantasy outlook for Week 7
Check out Xavier Legette’s fantasy stats as he prepares to take on the Commanders in Week 7.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (24.6% rostered)
Henry has proven to be a reliable fantasy asset, achieving 13.0 points or more in every game where he garnered at least five targets. He led the Patriots in routes run last week, catching three of five targets for 41 yards and a touchdown against Houston.
This week, he is matched up against the Jaguars, a team that ranks in the top half of the league concerning two-high coverage, which creates additional space in the middle. Furthermore, the Jaguars allow the third-highest yards per reception to tight ends, making Henry a strong choice after Cole Kmet racked up 24 fantasy points against them last week.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (20.2% rostered)
Stafford’s season began sluggishly, averaging only 10.3 fantasy points per game. However, he has a favorable matchup following the Rams’ Week 6 bye, facing a Raiders defense that has surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
He may also be joined by Cooper Kupp in the lineup. Should Kupp remain sidelined, Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington can still deliver adequate support, positioning Stafford as a solid starter in deeper or superflex formats.
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots (11.1% rostered)
In his first career start against the Texans last week, Maye showcased an outstanding performance, scoring 19.5 fantasy points despite playing behind a Patriots offensive line that is rated last in pass block win rate. He appeared well-connected with DeMario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, and other key players on New England’s roster. Maye faces a Jaguars defense that permits the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, making him a name to consider in superflex formats.
Bowen:
Don’t be surprised if …
Kerby Joseph intercepts Sam Darnold
This season, Darnold has thrown an interception in four out of five games played. His poor decision-making in late-game pass scenarios might provide opportunities for the Lions’ secondary. On Sunday, expect Joseph, a playmaker with both post and split-field coverage skills, to take advantage. Joseph’s four interceptions rank him second in the league, closely following Xavier McKinney who has five.
Enjoy your favorite live sports, stories, and originals with ESPN+, Disney+, and Hulu. Upgrade to a Disney Bundle plan and commence streaming content for everyone today!
Zach Ertz logs over 75 yards vs. Carolina
This season, Ertz has not surpassed 70 receiving yards in any game; however, the matchup against the Panthers’ defense might change that. Carolina is permitting an average of 9.3 yards per attempt on passes thrown inside the numbers, the highest tally in the league. Anticipate Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to position Ertz on seams and crossing routes.
Patrick Mahomes rushes for over 25 yards vs. San Francisco
Mahomes has only surpassed 25 rushing yards in one game this season, yet he has recorded five or more carries in three consecutive contests. Given the 49ers’ knack for disrupting the pocket, Mahomes will likely have to move around and operate off-script. He remains one of the league’s top scrambling quarterbacks, particularly during crucial moments in games.
Drake Maye runs for a touchdown in London
Last week, Maye rushed for 38 yards on five attempts. With his ability to extend plays as a runner, I predict Maye will score a rushing touchdown—likely during a red zone scramble—against the Jaguars. He found the end zone nine times on the ground while at North Carolina last season.
<img alt="" class="floatleft" src="https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img
Ladd McConkey catches a touchdown vs. Arizona
Over the past two games, McConkey has received 15 targets, including two in the end zone. This week, he faces a Cardinals defense that has allowed 10 touchdown receptions this season, which is tied for the sixth-most in the league. Expect McConkey to score his third touchdown of the season on Monday night.
Solak: Favorite upset pick for Week 7
Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Atlanta Falcons
Although the Seahawks have lost three consecutive games, they’ve enjoyed a long week of rest, brought back several injured starters, and statistically perform better than the Falcons. The Falcons have been narrowly securing wins, but their lack of a strong pass rush compared to Seattle’s aggressive defensive front may be a deciding factor in this shootout.
Expect the Seahawks to get running back Kenneth Walker III involved early and to exploit an immobile Kirk Cousins as they aim for a refreshing bounce-back victory on Sunday.
0:30
Is betting the over or the under a better option for the Seahawks-Falcons game?
Tyler Fulghum shares his reasons for leaning toward the over in the Week 7 matchup between Seattle and Atlanta.
Fowler: Insights as we approach kickoff
The Jets are gearing up for Russell Wilson to take the helm as quarterback for the Steelers this week. However, if Wilson does play, could coach Mike Tomlin find a role for Justin Fields, who has shown promise in his six games? The Jets have at least prepared for the possibility of deploying a third-down/red zone tactic featuring Fields.
In related news, the Steelers are interested in acquiring Jets receiver Mike Williams, who is available for trade. Williams is contemplating a change of scenery before the deadline, and Pittsburgh has been actively seeking receiver reinforcements in recent months. Any potential deal will have to wait until after next week because of their head-to-head matchup.
The Lions are conducting thorough research into the pass-rush market as they look to replace Aidan Hutchinson (tibia/fibula). For their upcoming game against Minnesota, they will rely on James Houston, Josh Paschal, and new acquisition Isaiah Thomas on the edge. Additionally, Detroit has made inquiries regarding Haason Reddick’s availability. Browns defensive
Za’Darius Smith is another name to keep an eye on. Additionally, teams are showing interest in Patriots sub rusher Joshua Uche. While Reddick is seeking a new contract, both Uche and Smith have relatively low base salaries this year (Smith at $1.2 million and Uche at $1.3 million), making them quite attractive for trade.
Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson will prioritize quick decision-making and accuracy following his recovery from an oblique injury. He remains a running threat, despite the recent hits. Although Richardson expressed a desire to play last week, Indianapolis opted to hold him out, wanting to ensure he could fully utilize his dual-threat passing style.
Interestingly, the Colts are dedicated to harnessing Richardson’s immense potential, which removes any controversy from the situation. However, discussions with opposing teams over the past few weeks reveal a preference for facing Richardson rather than Joe Flacco, given Flacco’s ability to heat up as a passer. Regardless, the Colts are committed to seeing the Richardson experiment through, and in Week 4, he was making quick decisions from the pocket before his injury.
Weekly NFL game expert picks
• Game picks from our NFL experts »
• Betting notes » | More NFL coverage »
The Vikings are hopeful about running back Aaron Jones (questionable, hamstring) potentially playing this week, but they will monitor his status over the weekend. He has been included in the game plan, at least initially. As for tight end T.J. Hockenson (questionable, knee), indications suggest a targeted return for Week 8 or Week 9, and he has had a productive week.
One concern is that neither player participated in a full practice this week.
Rams receiver Cooper Kupp (ankle) is truly a game-time decision. Coach Sean McVay typically informs the media on Fridays whether a player is expected to play, but he refrained from providing that detail regarding Kupp. The situation is uncertain. Kupp performed well in practices this week, yet the Rams are cautious with their star players’ injuries. Despite their 1-4 record, they believe they are still in contention. The main problem lies in attrition rather than any form of division within the team, and bringing Kupp back would serve as a significant boost.
Week 7 NFL Preview: Key Stat Trends, Fantasy Sleepers, Potential Surprises, and Latest Buzz
Key Stat Trends to Watch
As we head into Week 7 of the NFL season, several key stat trends are emerging that can impact your fantasy lineup and betting strategies. Analyzing these trends can provide valuable insights into player performance and team dynamics.
1. Quarterback Performance
- Completion Rate: Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen boast completion rates above 65%. Monitor these players as they face weak secondaries.
- Yards per Attempt: Look for QBs averaging over 8 yards per attempt; they often have high fantasy upside. Players like Justin Herbert are crucial here.
2. Running Back Utilization
- Snap Count: Keep an eye on snap counts. Running backs who are on the field for 70%+ of snaps indicate higher usage, like Derrick Henry.
- Targets and Receptions: Dual-threat RBs such as Austin Ekeler are trending up, with increasing targets in the passing game.
3. Wide Receiver Matchups
- Target Share: Players with a target share above 25%, like Davante Adams, are vital for your lineup.
- Yards After Catch (YAC): Receivers with high YAC, such as Deebo Samuel, can turn short passes into significant gains.
Fantasy Sleepers for Week 7
Identifying fantasy sleepers can provide a significant advantage in your league. Here’s a look at some players who may surprise in Week 7.
1. Tight End Options
| Player | Team | Matchup | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | Cleveland Browns | vs. New England | Increased usage and targets in recent weeks. |
| Dalton Schultz | Houston Texans | vs. Tennessee | Strong connection with rookie QB; favorable matchup. |
2. Wide Receiver Breakouts
- Elijah Moore (Cleveland Browns): Gaining momentum with consistent targets; could capitalize against a vulnerable secondary.
- Rondale Moore (Arizona Cardinals): With DeAndre Hopkins out, he might see increased opportunities.
Potential Surprises in Week 7
Week 7 has the potential for unexpected outcomes, particularly with several key injuries and matchups that could shift the balance.
1. Teams on the Rise
- Detroit Lions: With their high-scoring offense, they could pull an upset against a struggling opponent.
- New York Jets: Their defense has taken a major step forward; they may surprise against a favored team.
2. Key Injuries Impacting Teams
| Player | Position | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | QB | Doubtful | Could lead to a backup starting, impacting the offense’s efficiency. |
| Davante Adams | WR | Questionable | His availability may shift the focus to other receivers. |
Latest Buzz from the NFL
Stay updated with the latest buzz around the league as we head into Week 7. This section highlights crucial news and developments that could affect fantasy football strategies.
1. Trade Rumors Heating Up
- Running Back Trades: There’s chatter around potential trades for RBs, including an interest in acquiring Alvin Kamara before the deadline.
- Wide Receiver Moves: Teams may look to bolster their WR corps; keep an eye on players like Jerry Jeudy and DJ Moore.
2. Coaching Changes and Strategies
- Offensive Adjustments: Coaches are tweaking strategies as they assess player performance; this can lead to unexpected player usage.
- Defensive Matchups: Pay attention to how defenses are adapting to offensive schemes, especially in high-stakes games.
Practical Tips for Fantasy Owners
As often as you analyze stats and trends, it’s equally important to adopt practical strategies as a fantasy football owner. Here are some tips to help you navigate the complexities of Week 7.
- Stay Informed: Regularly check injury reports and expert analyses to adapt your lineup accordingly.
- Use Waiver Wire Strategically: If you have players underperforming, look to the waiver wire for potential picks, especially as bye weeks continue.
- Engage with Your League: Keep communication open with other league members for trade negotiations and insights.
First-Hand Experience: Success Stories
Many fantasy players have seen success by making smart moves in previous weeks. Here are a few testimonials on how certain decisions led to victory.
- John D. from Dallas: “I picked up a backup quarterback who started unexpectedly, and he led me to a big win!”
- Emily R. from Atlanta: “I traded for a tight end who was underperforming but had a favorable schedule ahead; it turned my season around!”
Conclusion
Week 7 of the NFL season promises to be exciting, with key player trends, potential fantasy sleepers, and much more shaping the landscape. By staying informed and making strategic decisions, you can maximize your success this week.
