Over the last two years, the Rams have faced challenges as road underdogs, managing to cover the spread in only 4 of their last 15 such games, with a record of 4-10-1. This Sunday, they will be 3-point road underdogs against Chicago in the Week 4 NFL odds. The Bears are seeking recovery after two consecutive road losses; however, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams had a standout performance last week, throwing for 363 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts. Can you count on him to cover the spread against Los Angeles when crafting your Week 4 NFL parlay picks?
This Sunday will also see Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix taking the field, as Denver is a 7.5-point road underdog against the Jets in the Week 4 NFL spreads. Nix led the Broncos to a surprising 26-7 victory over Tampa Bay last week, while the Jets are fresh off back-to-back wins over Tennessee and New England. Before finalizing your Week 4 NFL picks or parlays, be sure to check out insights from SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein.
Having previously served as the lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein utilizes a broad network of contacts in Vegas complemented by the analytical skills he developed at Pro Football Focus. In the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, he achieved a tie for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries), finishing with a record of 53-34-3 ATS. His weekly Vegas contest selections are the foundation of his NFL best bets column, which boasts a record of 83-52-3 (61.5%, +25.50 units) since its launch in 2022. He went 2-1 last week.
For Week 4, Hartstein has identified three solid best bets. If you successfully parlay these picks, you could receive a payout exceeding 6-1. Discover Hartstein’s Week 4 NFL picks exclusively at SportsLine.
Top Week 4 NFL picks
Hartstein has a strong inclination towards the Steelers (-2, 40) on the road against the Colts. Indianapolis managed to secure its first win of the year last week against Chicago, with running back Jonathan Taylor rushing for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Achieving similar success against a formidable Pittsburgh defense, which has only allowed 26 total points in its initial three games, will be a tall order.
Leading the NFL in total yards allowed per game (229.0), the Steelers also rank third in rushing yards permitted per game (71.3). They will apply pressure on Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, who has struggled, completing less than 50% of his passes with three touchdowns and six interceptions. Hartstein anticipates multiple turnovers from Richardson on Sunday against Pittsburgh’s tough defense, a key factor in his prediction for the Steelers to secure their fourth victory. Check out other NFL parlay picks here.
How to make Week 4 NFL parlays
Hartstein has also targeted two additional NFL matchups, backing one team with a quarterback who “typically thrives in this matchup.” You can exclusively view Hartstein’s Week 4 NFL best bets and parlay at SportsLine.
Curious about Hartstein’s top Week 4 NFL picks, and which other matchups could lead to a lucrative 6-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to uncover the Week 4 NFL best bets from the Vegas expert who has gained 25.50 units in NFL ATS picks and learn more.
Week 4 NFL Betting Preview: Expert Picks and Noteworthy Matchups
Key Matchups to Watch
As we head into Week 4 of the NFL season, several matchups stand out in terms of betting opportunities. Here’s a breakdown of key games to keep your eye on:
1. Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
The AFC East showdown is set to be a high-scoring affair. The Dolphins come in with a potent offense, having scored over 100 points in their last three games.
- Current Line: Bills favored by 3 points
- Over/Under: 54 points
Expert Insight: With Miami’s explosive playmakers and Buffalo’s strong receiving core, this game could easily hit the over. Betting on Miami to cover could also be a wise choice given their offensive momentum.
2. San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
This NFC West clash features two teams with high hopes for playoff contention. The 49ers have shown they can dominate on both sides of the ball.
- Current Line: 49ers favored by 5.5 points
- Over/Under: 42 points
Expert Insight: Look for San Francisco’s defense to create turnovers. Betting on the 49ers to win and cover seems appealing, especially if you believe in their defensive prowess.
Betting Trends to Consider
Understanding betting trends can help you make more informed decisions. Here are a few that stand out for Week 4:
- Home Field Advantage: Home teams have historically performed well in Week 4, covering more than 60% of the time.
- Divisional Matchups: These games tend to be closer, with the underdog often outperforming expectations.
- Over/Under Trends: High-scoring games have become the norm, particularly in matchups involving top-tier offenses.
Player Performances to Monitor
Key player performances can significantly impact betting outcomes. Here are a few players to focus on this week:
Quarterbacks
- Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins): Look for him to continue his MVP-caliber play against a vulnerable Bills secondary.
- Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams): He could exploit the 49ers’ defense, depending on the pressure he faces.
Wide Receivers
- Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins): A must-start as he continues to be a top target.
- Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams): His chemistry with Stafford could shine in a tough matchup.
Expert Betting Picks
Here are some expert betting picks for Week 4, focusing on both straight bets and spreads:
Best Bets
| Matchup | Bet Type | Recommended Side |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills | Spread | Dolphins +3 |
| San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams | Moneyline | 49ers to Win |
| Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens | Over/Under | Over 40.5 |
Practical Tips for Successful Betting
If you’re looking to enhance your betting strategy for Week 4, consider the following tips:
- Do Your Research: Analyze team statistics, recent performances, and injury updates to make informed bets.
- Shop for Lines: Different sportsbooks may offer varying lines, so compare to find the best odds.
- Manage Your Bankroll: Set a budget for your bets and stick to it to avoid overspending.
Case Studies: Past Week 4 Outcomes
Looking at previous seasons can provide insights into trends and outcomes:
- 2022: Favorites covered 60% of the time, with unders hitting in 70% of the games.
- 2021: Divisional matchups saw dramatic swings, with underdogs prevailing in three out of five games.
First-Hand Experiences from Bettors
Many bettors have shared their experiences regarding Week 4 betting. Here’s a summary of common strategies and lessons learned:
- Emotional Control: Successful bettors emphasize the importance of not letting emotions influence their decisions.
- Early Betting: Some claim betting early in the week allowed them to capitalize on favorable lines before they changed.
- Networking: Engaging with a community of bettors can provide insights and tips that improve your strategy.
Final Thoughts on Week 4 NFL Betting
As you prepare for Week 4, remember to consider all the factors that influence the games. Stay informed, bet wisely, and enjoy the excitement of NFL betting!
