The UEFA Champions League has returned, but this time it’s different from anything we’ve encountered before. Some of the changes are straightforward, others are intricate, and a few may appear enigmatic until we reach the knockout stages in February.
What exactly is the revised format? How will the draw unfold? When can we expect to find out the fixtures?
We’ve outlined everything you need to know ahead of the draw, scheduled for noon ET / 5 p.m. UK / 6 p.m. CET on Thursday.
How does the mock draw operate?
The Champions League draw now focuses on generating each team’s unique fixture list. We’ve chosen six prominent clubs and determined their opponents, based on the draw’s requirements and the pots.
With all 36 clubs consolidated into a single league table, the competition’s appearance will change significantly. Will the league phase exhibit competitiveness? We analyzed the data to create a league table after seven of eight rounds to illustrate the potential shifts that may occur on the eighth and final matchday, when all 18 matches commence simultaneously.
The final standings will automatically dictate the possible routes through the knockout stages, and we’ll explain how that process works as well.
It’s important to note that the mock draw, schedule, results, and table are purely illustrative and should not be interpreted as forecasts of actual developments.
What is the new format for the Champions League?
Let’s begin with the fundamentals. This season marks the first format change in 21 years for Europe’s premier club tournament. For the last two decades, 32 teams advanced and were allocated into eight groups of four. The top two teams proceeded to the round of 16, while the third-placed team entered the UEFA Cup / Europa League and the fourth team was eliminated from European competition.
Now, there are 36 teams, but they will not be sorted into groups. Instead, we have introduced a Champions League “league phase.”
So, how does this operate?
• Teams ranked 25 to 35 will be eliminated in January
• The 16 teams ranked 9 through 24 will compete in the knockout phase playoffs in February for a place in the round of 16
• The top eight teams will advance directly to the round of 16, which will take place in March
This year also brings a significant change: teams can no longer drop down to the Europa League from the Champions League (or to the UEFA Conference League from the Europa League). Once eliminated, a team is definitively out.
From the knockout phase playoffs onward, the tournament will maintain its two-legged format all the way to the semifinals, culminating in a traditional one-legged final, albeit with limited draws — more on that aspect later.
What does the Champions League draw pots look like?
The structural appearance of the draw remains largely the same, featuring four pots of teams, now comprising nine clubs rather than eight. However, there are noteworthy modifications due to the expanded format.
How seeding has evolved
Previously, Pot 1 included the Champions League and Europa League titleholders, as well as the champions from the top six domestic leagues. Pots 2 to 4 were then organized by strength, based on UEFA’s club coefficient, which ranks clubs based on their performances in Europe over the past five seasons.
Now, only the UCL titleholders will occupy Pot 1, with all other placements determined by the UEFA club coefficient.
However, the new UCL structure means the pots themselves hold less significance because teams will draw to face two clubs from their own pot. In the previous format, being placed in Pot 1 could result in a more favorable draw, as teams couldn’t face opponents from their own pot during the group phase.
For the mock draw, we’ve utilized the seven highest-ranked clubs (according to UEFA coefficient) from each of the playoff round ties occurring this week.
POT 3: Slavia Prague, Dinamo Zagreb, FC Salzburg, Red Star Belgrade, Young Boys
POT 4: Sl
ovan Bratislava, Sparta Prague,
The mock will be refreshed through this week’s final qualifying round.
So, how is the draw conducted?
Unlike previous years where teams were assigned to groups, this draw now directly establishes fixtures. Each club is set to play eight matches, drawing two opponents from each of the four pots. Clubs will host one match from each pot while playing the other away.
There are two key principles to follow this season:
• No club can compete against another team from its own league (For instance, Arsenal cannot face Aston Villa)
• A club may not play more than two teams from a single country (Thus, if Arsenal draws Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, they cannot also meet VfB Stuttgart)
The draw ceremony will also have a notable change. In prior seasons, a manual draw with pots and balls overseen by a range of former UCL players determined the fates of all 32 teams. Due to the complexity of the new format, this process would now take over three hours and require 1,296 balls.
This is how the new process will work:
• An ex-player will draw a team on stage (starting from Pot 1 and concluding with Pot 4)
• A computer will then randomly select that club’s eight opponents while adhering to the draw’s restrictions and will identify which match will be played at home or away.
While the position in pots may not hold exceptional importance, it still bears relevance as each pot comprises different levels of quality. The allocation of home and away games is also significant, given the variety of potential opponents for each club.
Below is how our draw unfolded for six selected teams.
Mock UCL league phase draw – selected clubs
| Real Madrid | Liverpool | Bayern | Barcelona | Arsenal | Man City |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
In this hypothetical scenario, Arsenal appears to have the most favorable outcome among the possible Pot 1 opponents, facing RB Leipzig and Dortmund, but faces a tougher challenge from Pot 2 with matches against Atalanta and Atlético Madrid.
Liverpool would also be pleased with their schedule, including a matchup against Real Madrid at Anfield and Club Brugge from Pot 2.
Barcelona, however, faces the toughest draw in this simulation, contending with the champions of England and Germany, alongside Bayern, Milan, and from Pot 4, Aston Villa.
Will the league phase be engaging?
There have been remarks suggesting that the league phase could lack excitement, as there might be little at stake since the top eight
At the conclusion of the league phase, the top clubs will advance directly to the round of 16, while the next 16 teams will enter the knockout phase playoffs. In total, only 11 teams will be eliminated from the 36 participating teams.
Based on the league table after seven rounds, it appears that plenty remains at stake as we approach the final matchday. Since each team has a maximum of 24 points to gain, the standings are unlikely to mirror the more stretched-out nature of a domestic league; in fact, it’s feasible for a team to leapfrog seven or even eight positions on matchday eight.
After seven rounds:
• Two teams have secured a top-eight finish
• Seventeen teams are competing for the six remaining top-eight positions
• Seventeen teams are guaranteed at least a spot in the knockout phase playoffs
• No team has been completely assured of a place in the knockout phase playoffs
• Fourteen teams are fighting for the last five positions (20th to 24th) in the knockout phase playoffs
• Only three teams (34th to 36th) have been eliminated from contention
League Phase Tiebreakers
Considering the number of matches and participating teams, typically 15 points will suffice for a top-eight finish, whereas nine points should secure a place in the top 24. However, certain seasons may demand more points, and in our simulation, a few teams fell short of 15 points due to an inferior goal difference.
To enhance the significance of each match up to the final day, UEFA has established a link between a club’s final league placement and its path through the knockout bracket, meaning that a club’s finishing position has a direct impact on its future matches. Higher placements yield easier routes based on league standings. For example, the teams finishing first and second cannot meet until the final, while those in third and fourth would avoid facing the top two until the semifinals, and so forth (refer to the knockout round chart for clarity on this structure).
The key question is how much the middle-tier clubs will value their final standing. If they perform beyond their UEFA coefficient rankings, they may secure a more favorable path deeper into the tournament; nevertheless, this is also contingent on the performances of other teams (for instance, they may face a top team that has underperformed during the league phase).
According to our standings after seven rounds, only two teams—Real Madrid and Manchester City—had guaranteed their spots in the round of 16, while the bottom three teams were definitively out.
After 7 Games – Champions League Mock
| GP | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GP | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Now we arrive at the highly anticipated final matchday, featuring all 18 matches taking place at the same time, reminiscent of the concluding day in the Premier League season.
With each goal scored, positions may shift dramatically, affecting battles for crucial spots at the top of the league as well as efforts by clubs striving to secure or improve their standings within the top 24.
Below are hypothetical results for Matchday 8, and their subsequent impact on the final standings.
Final round results
Final table – Champions League mock
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Following Liverpool’s loss at Atalanta, the club dropped four spots to 11th place, falling out of the top eight. Inter Milan also slipped after their draw with Sturm Graz, moving down one position to ninth.
Bayern Munich and AC Milan benefited from this shakeup, securing victories that propelled them to seventh and eighth places, respectively. Despite earning 15 points, both Inter and Aston Villa could not break into the top eight, finishing just out due to goal difference.
The race to enter the top 24 could see more significant positional changes, as fewer teams are likely to achieve victories. Notably, Atalanta, PSV Eindhoven (against Slavia Prague), and Girona (versus PSG) each climbed five spots, securing their spots in the knockout phase playoffs and finishing in 21st, 23rd, and 24th places, respectively. Conversely, Brest, Celtic, and Young Boys were eliminated from the top 24 due to losses on the final day.
When will the matches take place?
UEFA is set to release the fixture list on Saturday, August 31. Clubs cannot play against teams from the same pot in consecutive matchdays; for example, Arsenal cannot face Pot 1 teams RB Leipzig on Matchday 3 and Dortmund on Matchday 4.
Kick-off times will remain unchanged, with two matches scheduled for 5:45 p.m. UK / 12:45 p.m. ET and the remaining fixtures at 8:00 p.m. UK / 3:00 p.m. ET. On the final day of the league phase, however, all 18 matches will commence simultaneously at 8:00 p.m. UK / 3:00 p.m. ET.
Champions League Matchdays
UEFA has broadened the scope of the European calendar to encompass ten midweeks, up from the previous six. The Champions League will occupy eight of these matchdays, while the remaining two will allow the Europa League and Conference League to have their own dedicated weeks. Only the Champions League will compete during the week of September 17-19, the Europa League on September 25-26, and the Conference League will be held during the week of December 19.
The UCL league phase now concludes in January rather than December, with six matches scheduled before Christmas, followed by the final two rounds on January 21-22 and January 29.
This new format will generate several Pot 1 matchups, which were absent in previous seasons, as UEFA aims to create a variety of “marquee” matches throughout the matchdays. A hypothetical draw demonstrated how these matchups could be spread across the schedule, with only one week lacking a meeting between two of the current football powerhouses.
Marquee UCL matchdays – mock draw
How do the knockout rounds and bracket work?
Previously, UEFA conducted multiple draws for the knockout rounds, but the new tennis-style ranking system now requires only two: one for the knockout phase playoffs set for January 31, and another for the round of 16 on February 21, which finalizes the bracket.
There is no country protection; for example, Liverpool could face off against Aston Villa in the round of 16. In earlier seasons, such protections were upheld until the quarterfinals.
The competitive nature of the expanded tournament means that some strong teams may not qualify for the top eight, potentially leading to some thrilling matchups early in the knockout phase.
The first draw establishes the fixtures for the knockout phase playoffs, with each team having two potential opponents.
Teams ranked 9 through 16 will host the second leg of their matches at home. From that point onward, the bracket positions for these teams will be fixed.
From our final league table positions, the following knockout phase playoff matchups are possible.
Mock UCL knockout playoff round draw options
At the end
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According to our league standings, the matchups would appear as follows:
Real Madrid (1) or Manchester City (2) would face:
The winners from one of the matchups between Paris Saint-Germain (17), AS Monaco (18), Benfica (15), and Sporting CP (16).
Barcelona (3) or Arsenal (4) would encounter:
The winners from one of the matchups including Stuttgart (19), Bologna (20), Juventus (13), and Atlético Madrid (14).
Bayer Leverkusen (5) or RB Leipzig (6) would meet:
The winners from one of the matchups between Atalanta (21), FC Salzburg (22), Liverpool (11), and Borussia Dortmund (12).
Bayern Munich (7) or AC Milan (8) would play against:
The winners from one of the matchups featuring Girona (23), PSV Eindhoven (24), Inter (9), and Aston Villa (10).
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Unveiling the New UEFA Champions League Format: Changes, Draw Mechanics, and What to Expect
Overview of the UEFA Champions League Changes
The UEFA Champions League is undergoing significant changes that aim to enhance competition and viewer engagement. Starting from the 2024-2025 season, a new format will replace the traditional group stage, offering a fresh approach to how clubs compete for Europe’s most prestigious football trophy.
Key Changes in the Format
- Single League Format: Instead of the typical group stage, the tournament will transition to a Swiss-style league format.
- Expanded Participation: The number of participating teams will increase from 32 to 36.
- Match Schedule: Each team will play 8 matches (4 home and 4 away) against different opponents.
- Qualification Process: The new system includes automatic qualifications for certain clubs based on their historical performance.
Understanding the Swiss Model
The Swiss model is a well-established format used in various sports, focusing on providing each team with a broader range of competition before moving onto knockout stages. This format will offer a more diverse set of matches and will help determine the top 16 teams that advance to the knockout rounds.
Benefits of the Swiss Format
- Increased Excitement: More matches mean more opportunities for teams to showcase their talents.
- Fairer Competition: The chance to face a variety of opponents levels the playing field.
- Higher Revenue: More matches can lead to increased ticket sales and broadcasting rights.
Draw Mechanics Explained
The draw process for the new UEFA Champions League format is designed to maintain excitement and fairness. Here’s how it will work:
Initial Draw Process
- Teams will be divided into four pots based on their UEFA coefficient rankings.
- The draw will determine the first round of matches, ensuring that teams from the same country do not face each other.
- Each team will play against 8 different opponents over a 10-week period.
Subsequent Rounds
After the league phase, the top 16 teams will progress to the knockout stage. The knockout phase will follow a traditional two-legged format, culminating in the grand final.
What to Expect for Clubs and Fans
The new format promises to bring several changes that will impact both clubs and fans significantly.
For Clubs
- More Competitive Matches: Clubs will face a wider variety of opponents, making the competition fiercer.
- Strategic Planning: Coaches and managers will need to strategize differently with a more extensive range of matches.
- Financial Incentives: Clubs can earn more revenue through increased match days and broadcasting opportunities.
For Fans
- Greater Match Diversity: Fans can look forward to watching their teams compete against a broader spectrum of European clubs.
- Heightened Suspense: With more teams vying for a place in the knockout stage, the excitement will build throughout the league phase.
- Enhanced Viewing Experience: The new format is designed to keep fans engaged throughout the tournament.
Case Studies of Similar Formats
Other sports leagues have successfully implemented similar formats, which can provide insights into the potential outcomes of the new UEFA Champions League structure.
European Rugby Champions Cup
The European Rugby Champions Cup has utilized a similar structure for some time, featuring a league phase that has proven to enhance competition and fan interest.
FIFA World Cup Qualifiers
The recent FIFA World Cup qualifiers adopted a league format, allowing teams to face a variety of opponents, which increased competitiveness and fan engagement.
First-hand Experience from Stakeholders
Insights from players, coaches, and football analysts can provide a clearer picture of the potential impacts of the new format.
Players’ Perspective
Many players have expressed excitement about the new format, emphasizing the chance to face varying styles of play from different leagues.
Coaches’ Insights
Coaches have highlighted the need for adaptive strategies in response to the diverse match-ups that the Swiss format will entail. This evolution in preparation can also enhance player development.
Conclusion: Embracing Change in European Football
The UEFA Champions League is set to take a monumental step forward with the introduction of its new format. As clubs and fans adjust to the upcoming changes, the anticipation builds for a more competitive and engaging tournament. The Swiss model will not only reshape how teams compete but will also redefine the overall experience of football in Europe. Keeping an eye on these developments will be essential for every football enthusiast looking to stay informed.
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