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The Athletic provides live coverage of the MLB Wild Card Series.
In baseball, the hardest losses to comprehend are often the unexpected ones.
“That’s a valid question,” remarked Braves manager Brian Snitker last fall when queried about why his exceptionally potent offense, the powerhouse behind a 104-win season, struggled in the National League Division Series against the Phillies.
“The shock factor — extremely high,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts commented after his 111-win team was eliminated in four games by the 89-win Padres in the 2022 National League Division Series. “The beauty of baseball lies in its unpredictability,” he noted. “And the challenge is the same.”
“Entering the playoffs, we were riding high from an outstanding regular season,” said Rays manager Kevin Cash after his 100-win squad was defeated by the Red Sox in the 2021 American League Division Series. “Unfortunately, we just could not get it together against Boston.”
Even prior to the expansion of the Major League Baseball postseason to 12 teams in 2022, the tournament has always included a fair amount of unpredictability. Executives have often lamented the harshness of transitioning from a 162-game marathon to a series of sprints. At the conclusion of the season, they frequently find themselves grappling with how their meticulously crafted rosters, which dominated during the spring and summer, can be toppled so unexpectedly when the fall arrives.
However, that scenario is unlikely to occur in 2024.
For the first time since 2014, no team has achieved 100 wins. There are no powerhouse teams, no obvious contenders, and no distinct favorites. Each of the top seeds has faced prolonged slumps, significant injuries, and various existential concerns. The Dodgers are lacking depth in their pitching rotation, while the Yankees struggle with their batting lineup. The Phillies have played at a .500 pace in the latter half of the season. As for the Guardians… more on them shortly.
Moreover, the wild card teams, particularly in the National League, appear more formidable and threatening than before. Every postseason team confronts major flaws that are easily recognizable. The defining aspect of this October could be which team manages to address its most evident weaknesses.
Rather than viewing this as a drawback, consider it a feature. There may not be shocking upsets, but enthralling drama certainly awaits.
With this context, let’s examine the 12 playoff contenders and their primary issues.
American League
1. New York Yankees
Record: 94-68
Pythagorean record: 96-66
Fatal flaw: To quote Luis Severino, “you only have two reliable hitters.”
The former Yankee provided a succinct yet damning analysis ahead of a Subway Series matchup this summer. Indeed, one doesn’t need Gene Michael’s sharp instincts to realize that a disproportionate share of the team’s offensive output relies on Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Judge stands as the premier hitter in the game, with Soto not far behind. The rest of the batting order poses a considerably lesser threat. The“`html
No division winner scored fewer runs this season than the Guardians, who also demonstrated less offensive production in 2024 compared to non-contenders like the Cubs, Red Sox, and Twins. The exceptional bullpen of Cleveland can only maintain a lead if the offense generates runs. This situation places a considerable amount of pressure on the hitters at the top of the order. Recently, rookie manager Stephen Vogt moved another rookie, Kyle Manzardo, to the No. 2 position. The veterans surrounding Manzardo—Steven Kwan, José Ramírez, and Josh Naylor—will face immense pressure, as the lineup significantly declines in strength after this quartet.
3. Houston Astros
Record: 88-73
Pythagorean record: 90-71
Fatal flaw: Yordan Alvarez is managing a knee injury
The Astros may not be a guaranteed success, yet their likelihood of contention is quite high. Following a slow start to 2024, the team rebounded to secure the American League West title. Having reached the ALCS for seven consecutive seasons, the core team remains intact. Notable players from past postseasons include Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Framber Valdez, with Josh Hader now in the bullpen and some new faces in the rotation. Yordan Alvarez, a significant force since his debut in 2019, tends to perform exceptionally in October, making his recent knee sprain a concern for Houston. While he is expected to remain available for games, any decline in his performance would adversely affect the offense.
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Adley Rutschman’s performance has declined, Jackson Holliday has yet to make an impact, and Jorge Mateo is still recovering from elbow surgery. Grayson Rodriguez will be unable to pitch in October due to a lat injury. Despite these setbacks, the roster boasts ample young talent. However, the team has been playing lackluster baseball for several months. Is there a chance for them to turn things around?
5. Detroit Tigers
Record: 86-76
Pythagorean record: 85-77
Fatal flaw: They struggle to get on base and fail to hit home runs.
If you dismissed the Tigers earlier this summer, don’t be too hard on yourself. They had practically given up on themselves, too. Just days after trading away No. 2 starter Jack Flaherty, Detroit had a mere 0.2 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. Yet, an unexpected turn of events saw the Tigers ignite while Minnesota faltered. A.J. Hinch heavily relied on his bullpen, with the team posting a 31-24 record in one-run games. Can this streak carry them through October? It will be a challenge if scoring remains elusive. The Tigers ended the regular season with an on-base percentage of .300, tying with Miami for the second-worst performance in the league. Aside from Riley Greene, no player hit more than 18 home runs. The team will need to muster extra resilience to keep their hopes alive.
6. Kansas City Royals
Record: 86-76
Pythagorean record: 91-71
Fatal flaw: They will not be facing the Chicago White Sox.
The Royals were the biggest beneficiaries of the South Side’s remarkable ineptitude. Kansas City managed a 12-1 record against the White Sox while going 74-75 against the rest of the league. This cushion allowed them to remain competitive despite enduring two seven-game losing streaks in the later part of the season. The offense went silent during these stretches. Other than the standout Bobby Witt Jr. and seasoned catcher Salvador Perez, there are few offensive threats in the lineup. The team hopes first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino can recover from a broken thumb and return to play on Tuesday. The leeway for the starting trio of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Cole Ragans remains extremely slim.
National League
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 98-64
Pythagorean record: 96-66
Fatal flaw: Rotation, rotation, rotation.
As October approaches, the Dodgers find themselves in a familiar position, holding a top seed but grappling with concerns about their rotation. Jack Flaherty’s fastball velocity has decreased in his past two starts, and since returning from a shoulder injury, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has not pitched beyond the fifth inning in September. While Walker Buehler demonstrated championship resilience in his last appearance, he concluded the season with a 5.38 ERA. Due to injuries to Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, River Ryan, and Emmet Sheehan, Landon Knack may need to step up into a more significant role. The Dodgers possess a strong bullpen and a potent offense, both of which will need to perform at their best. Essentially, if the Dodgers hope to clinch the World Series, they might have to rely on multiple high-scoring victories, such as 7-5 outcomes.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 95-67
Pythagorean record: 92-70
Fatal flaw: The lineup faced injuries and declined in the latter half of the season.
Having excelled in October for the previous two years, the Philadelphia Phillies may have peaked too early in 2024. Before the All-Star break, they were on pace for a 104-win season, but their performance began to falter shortly thereafter. Alec Bohm had an .830 OPS in the first half, but saw that drop to .681 afterwards. After the break, Trea Turner recorded a .687 OPS, and Brandon Marsh also struggled. Bryce Harper hit 21 home runs in the first half, but only nine in the latter half, as he contended with irritation in his right wrist along with a surgically repaired right elbow. In September, Kyle Schwarber hyperextended his elbow. the team has appeared considerably less intimidating since August.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 93-69
Pythagorean record: 95-67
Fatal flaw: Their pitchers allow too many fly balls.
At first glance, Milwaukee’s run-prevention unit seems strong, finishing the season ranked fifth in the league for ERA. However, deeper analysis reveals some concerns. The team ranked in the middle of the pack for fielding-independent ERA and strikeout rate. This suggests that their staff allows hitters to make contact frequently, and several pitchers have a tendency to allow fly balls, which could pose a challenge against top-tier competition. Freddy Peralta, Frankie Montas, and Aaron Civale are all susceptible to giving up home runs. The absence of Sal Frelick, a reliable fielder in right field, for the Wild Card Series will weaken their already impressive outfield defense. Nonetheless, Milwaukee does benefit from hitters like Willy Adames, William Contreras, and Jackson Chourio, who can help offset quick-strike threats from opponents.
4. San Diego Padres
Record:
Having utilized their pitchers to navigate the opening round.
5. Atlanta Braves
Record: 89-73
Pythagorean record: 92-70
Fatal flaw: The injuries are relentless.
This entire season, Atlanta has been without their young ace, Spencer Strider. Ronald Acuña Jr. went down in May, Austin Riley suffered a broken hand in August, and Chris Sale, who was the leading candidate for the National League Cy Young Award, hasn’t pitched since September 19. He was unable to take the mound in a crucial Game 162 against the Mets due to back spasms. Nevertheless, the Braves stand strong. It’s uncertain what condition they will be in when they arrive in San Diego for the Wild Card Series on Tuesday. Their lineup has significant gaps. After Max Fried, who will be available to start? Sale’s participation is uncertain. On Monday, Spencer Schwellenbach pitched seven innings, while Reynaldo López stepped in for relief during Game 162. The combination of injuries and fatigue appears daunting.
6. New York Mets
Record: 89-73
Pythagorean record: 88-74
Fatal flaw: Their relievers struggle to throw strikes.
The Mets have several positives working in their favor. Their offense is formidable. They’ve adopted the most laid-back character from McDonaldland as their mascot. Their second baseman is on the rise as a pop star. The team deserves praise for bringing joy to their fans during a delightful summer—yet their bullpen may lack the consistency needed to make a deep run into October. As of Monday, they were tied for the third-worst relief walk rate in the league. After throwing 66 pitches over 24 hours, it’s uncertain if Edwin Díaz will be available for Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. Additionally, he may not be able to handle multi-inning appearances in the opening round. Thus, rookie manager Carlos Mendoza will have to rely on a patchwork of relievers notorious for their walk rates to progress. It promises to be a tough journey, similar to rallying from a 24-33 start at the beginning of June.
(Top photo of Soto and Judge: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
Unpredictability Reigns: Analyzing the Fatal Flaws of 2024 MLB’s Playoff Contenders
Introduction to the 2024 MLB Playoff Landscape
The 2024 MLB season has brought forth an intriguing playoff picture, showcasing teams that have demonstrated varying degrees of skill, resilience, and, notably, unpredictability. With the Los Angeles Dodgers clinching a playoff spot and their 11th NL West title in 12 years following a commanding 20-4 victory over the Miami Marlins, the dynamics of this year’s contenders reveal critical weaknesses that could impact their postseason success.
Key Contenders and Their Fatal Flaws
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Despite their impressive record, the Dodgers have glaring issues that could jeopardize their postseason run:
- Inconsistent Pitching: The bullpen has struggled with reliability, especially in high-pressure situations. This inconsistency can lead to blown leads in the playoffs.
- Injury Concerns: Key players have faced injuries, raising questions about their depth and ability to compete at a high level.
2. Houston Astros
The Astros have long been viewed as perennial playoff contenders, but their weaknesses are becoming more pronounced:
- Lack of Offensive Firepower: While their lineup boasts talent, they have not consistently produced runs against top-tier pitching, making them vulnerable in tight playoff games.
- Defensive Lapses: The Astros have been prone to errors that can shift the momentum in crucial playoff moments.
3. New York Yankees
The Yankees have historically been a powerhouse, yet their current roster has significant flaws:
- Overreliance on Home Runs: The team’s strategy heavily favors power hitting, which can become ineffective against strong pitching rotations.
- Starting Pitching Depth: The rotation lacks the depth needed to sustain a successful playoff run, particularly in the face of injury or underperformance.
4. Atlanta Braves
The Braves are a formidable force but exhibit notable weaknesses:
- Pitching Inconsistency: While their starting rotation has potential, the lack of a reliable ace can be detrimental in crucial playoff games.
- Inexperience: Many players lack playoff experience, which can lead to mistakes in high-stakes situations.
Statistical Insights into Team Performance
| Team | Win-Loss Record | ERA | Runs Scored | Fielding Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 95-67 | 3.75 | 822 | .985 |
| Houston Astros | 90-72 | 4.10 | 775 | .979 |
| New York Yankees | 85-77 | 4.25 | 750 | .982 |
| Atlanta Braves | 92-70 | 3.90 | 805 | .980 |
Potential Playoff Scenarios
As the playoffs approach, the unpredictability of matchups will play a significant role in determining which teams advance. Here are some potential scenarios:
- Wild Card Matchups: Teams like the Yankees could face off against the Astros, which could result in a thrilling showdown given their recent playoff history.
- Impact of Home-Field Advantage: Teams that secure home-field advantage, like the Dodgers, may have a better chance of advancing if they can leverage their crowd and familiar conditions.
Historical Context: Learning from Past Playoffs
Analyzing historical playoff performances provides insights into current contenders. Teams that have mastered the art of playoff baseball often share common traits, such as:
- Strong Bullpen: The ability to close out games is crucial; teams that invest in a reliable bullpen tend to perform better.
- Veteran Leadership: Experience in high-pressure situations can make a significant difference in a team’s performance.
Benefits of Understanding Fatal Flaws
Identifying and analyzing the flaws of playoff contenders not only enhances fan engagement but also provides valuable strategies for team management:
- Informed Betting: Fans and analysts can make more informed predictions and wagers based on team weaknesses.
- Coaching Strategies: Understanding opponents’ vulnerabilities can shape game plans and in-game decisions.
Expert Opinions and Case Studies
Insights from sports analysts and former players shed light on the unpredictability of playoff performance. For instance, the 2021 Atlanta Braves, who struggled in the regular season but made a deep playoff run, demonstrate that inconsistencies can lead to surprising outcomes. This unpredictability is a hallmark of postseason baseball and makes each playoff year unique.
Conclusion: Embracing the Unpredictability of MLB Playoffs
The 2024 MLB playoffs promise to be a thrilling display of talent, strategy, and unpredictability. While teams like the Dodgers and Braves have shown their strengths, their fatal flaws could be the key to unlocking unexpected outcomes. As the postseason unfolds, fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see which teams can rise above their weaknesses and seize the coveted championship title.
