What do successful and struggling Major League Baseball teams share?
They utilize numerous pitchers.
For instance, the Chicago White Sox and the Miami Marlins have combined to employ 79 pitchers this season, while the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers have used a total of 75. Typically, a roster includes 13 pitchers at any given time, and teams continually rotate in new pitchers as they navigate the lengthy regular season.
Conversely, the postseason is akin to a sprint, where the circle of trust significantly narrows. The 2023 Texas Rangers captured the World Series by relying predominantly on two starters and three relievers. In light of this, as clubs strategize to refine their pitching staffs for the playoffs, we’ve assembled a postseason pitching core for each contender: three starters, a swingman, and four relievers. With insights from our team beat writers, we formulated our best estimations regarding postseason rankings and the availability of injured pitchers.
Though these are not all the pitchers expected to feature this postseason, they will be the ones entrusted with critical moments.
Ranking these cores underscored the inherent unpredictability of the playoffs. Can a robust rotation compensate for a weaker bullpen? Are a couple of elite set-up relievers more valuable than a dependable fourth starter? The answer hinges on the team, its roster, and the specific series. A team that can frequently deploy its top pitchers is better positioned to thrive in October.
All statistics are current as of Wednesday afternoon.
The good: An ace complemented by a formidable back-end bullpen
The bad: A 4.32 staff ERA in the latter half of the season
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Had you asked a Padres fan a year ago if this would be their postseason pitching lineup in 2024, the response would likely have been confusion. We acquired Cease? Isn’t King from the Yankees bullpen? Who is Estrada? Are Musgrove and Darvish both healthy?! The Padres now feature four starters capable of delivering six scoreless innings without raising eyebrows. Their bullpen supporting this rotation is impressive.
to behold. Rather than closing games in other venues, Scott and Adam will be utilized in high-leverage situations prior to Suárez. Estrada boasts an impressive 37 percent strikeout rate, overpowering batters with his 97 mph fastballs, sliders, and splitters (13 in a row at one point). Adrian Morejon, Bryan Hoeing, and Wandy Peralta complete a roster carefully crafted by Padres GM A.J. Preller with postseason success in mind.
The good: Promising second-half pitching provides many options
The bad: No definitive starters beyond Game 1
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The crucial question revolves around Justin Verlander. Although his seasonal statistics indicate he may not rank among the Astros’ top three or four starting pitchers, he is still regarded as one of the greatest pitchers of his era. Beyond Valdez in Game 1, there’s a compelling argument for any of the Astros’ subsequent three starters, yet Verlander serves as an unpredictable variable. In the bullpen, the top three relievers are well-established and are likely to shoulder a significant portion of the workload in October. If any team is poised to adopt Cleveland’s 2016 postseason pitching strategy, relying on the same three relievers throughout the games, it’s surely these Astros.
The good: MLB’s second-best staff ERA (
3.53) and Chris Sale
The bad: The second half brought a worse ERA (3.86) and an abundance of injuries
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Despite the challenges facing the Braves, their pitching staff continues to be formidable. Sale is the likely NL Cy Young award winner and has excelled as the best starter in baseball this year, though it is essential to recognize that neither he nor Max Fried boasts impressive postseason statistics. The rotation’s arrangement will largely depend on López’s availability, as he is currently dealing with shoulder inflammation. Rookie Schwellenbach is expected to have a significant impact, while veteran Charlie Morton will be prepared to step in as well. This season, Atlanta’s bullpen holds the third-best ERA (3.37), with Iglesias taking the lead as the closer. The team comprises seasoned players who still excel against hitters. Jímenez is the sole reliever in his 20s, as he will turn 30 this winter. Jímenez and Pierce Johnson are regarded as the primary setup options, with left-handers Lee and Aaron Bummer available for critical moments against mid-lineup batters.
lineup boppers.
The good: Playoff format enhances the strength at the top of the depth chart
The bad: Questions linger at the back of the rotation
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In this scenario, Rodriguez is expected to make a return from the injured list, contributing at least in a bulk capacity during the playoffs. His presence is significant; without him, the Orioles would likely drop in these rankings. The inflated ERA in the second half has been influenced by players not expected to play substantial postseason roles (Burch Smith, Cole Irvin, Trevor Rogers). However, Burnes has consistently performed as the ace, while Eflin (the No. 2 starter) and Domínguez (the closer) have solidified their key positions since the trade deadline. Although the Orioles began the season intending to rely on Craig Kimbrel in crucial moments, that plan fell through long before he was designated for assignment on Wednesday. Consequently, they will now depend on Cano, Pérez, Akin, and Jacob Webb. If Rodriguez cannot return in time to make a postseason impact, the Orioles might have to distribute the bulk innings among Kremer, rookie Cade Povich, and the surprisingly effective journeyman Albert Suárez.
The good: Clear top starter with promising options in the rotation
The bad: Bullpen performance has been inconsistent and the No. 3 starter position remains uncertain
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One of the toughest yet crucial responsibilities for manager Aaron Boone is determining which pitchers to deploy in various scenarios. The talent is evidently present. Following an impressive second half, excluding his start against the Red Sox, Cole has cemented his position as the Game 1 starter. However, the remaining slots in the postseason rotation may require an approach of utilizing the players who are currently performing best. Rodón has shown improvement in the latter half of the season, Schmidt appears to be healthy and in good form, and Gil has delivered strong performances in his recent outings. Conversely, Marcus Stroman is not performing well and may need to take on a diminished role alongside Nestor Cortes. The situation in the bullpen is even more uncertain. Weaver has moved up in the hierarchy, and Kahnle has excelled during the second half, but Holmes and the newly acquired Mark Leiter Jr. have faced challenges. Ian Hamilton is also a viable option for high-leverage situations, having pitched effectively since his return from the injured list. The trustworthiness of the bullpen seems to fluctuate on a weekly basis.
7. Los Angeles Dodgers
The good: A reliable bullpen featuring well-known players and a new, formidable closer
The bad: Injuries have severely impacted the rotation
The Dodgers present a formidable challenge in ranking their pitching staff. With Flaherty, Yamamoto, and a seasoned bullpen, they could arguably place higher on this list. However, their unpredictability adds complexity. We are proceeding with the assumption that Clayton Kershaw — along with Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, and several other starters on the injured list — will not be fit to pitch in this postseason. Consequently, the rotation appears alarmingly shallow apart from the newly acquired Flaherty. Yamamoto is still working to increase his pitch count after making“`html
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STUFF+
SP
3.60
1.138
99
SP
2.76
1.041
107
SP
2.52
1.065
75
SP/RP
3.87
1.232
68
RP
1.94
1.011
105
RP
1.44
0.743
106
RP
2.00
0.917
120
CL
0.65
0.649
146
How should a team with four of the league’s premier relievers address the considerable uncertainty surrounding its rotation? This format of presenting eight names alongside three defined labels may not fully capture the strength of the Guardians’ bullpen (notably, we lack space to include Nick Sandlin, Eli Morgan, or recent call-up Andrew Walters) while potentially inflating the perception of stability in the Guardians’ rotation. Veteran pitcher Cobb, who was acquired at the trade deadline, has made merely three starts this season and is currently back on the injured list. Boyd, another late-season acquisition, has shown remarkable performance recently, yet he has only made 21 starts over the last three seasons. Lively, who has been a starting pitcher all season, possesses bullpen experience, allowing him to adapt to various roles in the postseason (as a starter, a piggyback option, or for long relief). With the best closer in the game on their roster, the Guardians have the late-inning talent needed to secure any lead — Clase, Gaddis, and Smith each rank among the top 20 in bullpen Win Probability Added — but first, they must navigate through the initial five innings.
9. Milwaukee Brewers
The good: The bullpen will challenge hitters and safeguard leads
The bad: The starting depth mainly consists of hittable veterans
Facing some uncertainties in their rotation, the Brewers mirror the Guardians in many ways, albeit with a slightly less formidable bullpen. After the offseason trade of ace Corbin Burnes, the Brewers have emerged as division champions, supported by a pitching roster that may not be familiar to the average baseball fan, yet boasts the impressive third-best ERA in the league at 3.65. If they can secure a wild-card bye by surpassing either the Phillies or Dodgers, it would significantly alleviate the rotation’s burden. Freddy Peralta is a reliable Game 1 starter, while Tobias Myers has enjoyed an underrated season as a rookie. Civale and Montas have each maintained mid-3 ERA performances since their arrivals in July. The bullpen, led by Devin Williams, is robust enough to include multiple options. Megill possesses closer-level talent, Koenig induces soft contact, and Ashby is delivering impressive velocity from the left side. Additionally, there are Colin Rea, Joe Ross, and Joel Payamps contributing to the depth. Who needs star power?
The good: Top-tier starters
The bad: Bullpen vulnerabilities
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As we examined the Royals’ bullpen more closely, we noted a noticeable decline. This may seem a bit unjust. How far can a rotation carry a team during the playoffs? We’re about to discover. There’s minimal distinction between Wacha and Singer, allowing the team to implement a standard four-man rotation without relying on piggybacks or special postseason strategies. This could serve as one of their most significant advantages, especially if they intend to make a deep playoff run and their rotation depth is put to the test. Conversely, the state of the bullpen presents a different challenge. In the latter half of the season, the Royals possess the fifth-worst bullpen ERA. Recently acquired Erceg has stepped up as a credible closer, yet the reliability and predictability of the middle innings and setup roles remain uncertain. While Schreiber has returned to health, James McArthur has recently joined Hunter Harvey on the disabled list. Hunter has begun to resume throwing but hasn’t pitched since August 4. Lorenzen, who has performed well in the rotation, may be an intriguing candidate for the bullpen—assuming he recovers from a hamstring injury.
The positives: An enhanced performance from a pennant-winning pitching staff
The negatives: The sole truly reliable starter is experiencing a down season
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Despite the recent setbacks with Ryne Nelson (shoulder) and Paul Sewald (neck) going on the injured list, our outlook on this pitching group remains positive. It’s a stronger unit compared to what we witnessed during last fall’s World Series. Gallen and Kelly will continue to be the starting pitchers for Games 1 and 2. Meanwhile, Pfaadt has encountered difficulties, thus opening opportunities for Rodríguez and Jordan Montgomery to earn more postseason innings if Nelson doesn’t return. The bullpen, whether Sewald is available or not — having lost his closer role earlier this summer — remains robust. Martínez delivers sinkers averaging an impressive 100.2 mph, while Puk boasts a 0.41 ERA along with a 42 percent strikeout rate since his trade in July. Entering the postseason, the D-Backs held the least favorable pitching staff ranking among playoff contenders but relied heavily on Ginkel, Thompson, Sewald, and Joe Mantiply. All four remain integral to manager Torey Lovullo’s postseason strategy, and the overall bullpen is in a better position now than it was last year. Arizona’s ERA stands at 4.66, placing them fourth worst in the league, only ahead of the Marlins, White Sox, and Rockies, yet their lineup has the capability to outscore any opponent.
The good: The No. 1 starter has been exceptional in the second half
The bad: The bullpen has struggled significantly, and rotation depth is concerning
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The bullpen for the Twins has struggled significantly during the latter half of the season. While Jax and Sands have performed adequately, Durán has not met expectations. Outside of these three pitchers, the bullpen is in disarray. Jorge Alcala has recently been sent down to Triple-A, and Louie Varland is struggling with an 8.57 ERA. Although Thielbar is included, if healthy, Kody Funderburk could take on the role of the primary left-handed reliever. There is a possibility that the Twins might enhance their postseason bullpen by utilizing Justin Topa (who has been sidelined for the entire year) and Chris Paddack (currently on the IL since mid-July), though neither player is guaranteed to have a substantial impact. López and Ober represent a reliable pair at the top of the rotation; López boasts a 2.01 ERA in the second half of the season. However, losing Joe Ryan has been a significant setback, forcing the team to depend on one of its rookies (either Woods Richardson or Festa) to fulfill the No. 3 starter position.
The good: Kodai Senga might infuse energy into the postseason rotation.
The bad: The pitching staff does not intimidate opposing hitters.
106
SP
3.38
0.563
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SP/RP
2.85
1.305
94
RP
2.64
1.102
93
RP
2.38
0.838
86
RP
3.25
1.319
117
CL
3.66
1.029
124
Credit is due to the Mets for reaching this point. However, it’s difficult to envision their pitching staff as the key to a deep postseason run. The uncertain element in the Mets’ playoff pitching strategy is Senga’s shoulder condition. If he is fit enough to take the mound, as anticipated, the Mets could utilize a strategy with him paired alongside José Quintana. If he isn’t, Peterson and Quintana will complete the playoff rotation. In high-pressure situations late in games, the Mets have various approaches to facilitate a setup for Díaz in the ninth inning. Maton and Garrett will definitely factor in, and there remains a debate between Buttó, Ryne Stanek, and Adam Ottavino for additional leverage situations. Although Stanek and Ottavino have struggled this season, both possess considerable postseason experience. Come October, Manager Carlos Mendoza will depend on the most reliable and effective pitcher available.
The positive: The best second-half ERA in MLB (and arguably the top starter)
The negative: Who exactly are these players? Can they maintain this level of performance?
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Through the combined efforts of openers, bulk relievers, and late-season call-ups, the Tigers have surprisingly positioned themselves in the playoff hunt. While they still face long odds, several players mentioned above, alongside some rookies you may not be familiar with — such as Ty Madden, Sean Guenther, Brenan Hanifee, and Keider Montero, who has achieved 15 consecutive scoreless innings — have contributed to the league’s best second-half ERA at 3.08. The pitching staff of the Tigers consists of numerous elements centered around a Cy Young contender in Skubal. While Olson performed admirably in the first half, he struggled in his initial start back from the injured list earlier this week. How manager A.J. Hinch will navigate the situation in October remains uncertain; however, he has been successfully managing the team’s operations over the past month. Perhaps he can sustain this success for a few more weeks.
(Top photo of Zack Wheeler: Nick Wosika / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Unpacking the Secrets of Success: What Good and Bad MLB Teams Share in Pitching Strategy
The Importance of Pitching in Major League Baseball
Pitching is often hailed as the backbone of a successful MLB team. A strong pitching strategy can differentiate a championship-caliber team from one that struggles to make the playoffs. Understanding what makes effective pitching strategies can provide insights into the shared traits of both successful and unsuccessful teams.
Key Elements of Effective Pitching Strategies
Several core elements contribute to a successful pitching strategy. Let’s explore these factors in detail:
1. Pitch Selection
- Diversity: Successful teams utilize a diverse pitching arsenal, effectively mixing fastballs, curveballs, sliders, and changeups to keep batters guessing.
- Data-Driven Decisions: Teams leveraging advanced analytics often achieve better outcomes, using statcast data to determine optimal pitch types against specific hitters.
2. Command and Control
- Location: Good pitchers place their pitches precisely in the strike zone, exploiting batters’ weaknesses.
- Walk Rates: Teams with low walk rates tend to perform better, as they limit free passes and keep runners off base.
3. Conditioning and Durability
- Injury Prevention: Successful teams invest in conditioning programs to minimize injuries and maximize the availability of their pitching staff.
- Pitch Counts: Monitoring and managing pitch counts is crucial to maintaining pitcher health over a long season.
Common Traits of Successful MLB Teams
Let’s take a closer look at the shared characteristics of successful MLB teams in terms of pitching strategy:
1. Strong Bullpen Depth
Good teams often have a well-stocked bullpen, allowing them to deploy fresh pitchers throughout the game. This depth can mean the difference between winning and losing in close games.
2. Effective Use of Starters
Successful teams typically have starting pitchers who can go deep into games, reducing the strain on the bullpen and often leading to fewer runs allowed.
3. High Strikeout Rates
Teams that generate high strikeout rates often outperform their competitors. Strikeouts reduce the chance of balls in play and subsequently limit scoring opportunities for the opposing team.
Identifying the Pitfalls of Poor MLB Teams
Understanding the downfalls of unsuccessful teams can be equally informative. Here are common traits of teams struggling with their pitching strategies:
1. Poor Pitching Mechanics
Many teams with bad pitching records suffer from poor mechanics, leading to both ineffective pitches and increased injury risks.
2. Overreliance on Starters
Teams that overextend their starting pitchers and neglect their bullpen often find themselves in trouble as the season progresses. This can lead to fatigue and diminished performance.
3. Lack of Adaptability
Teams that fail to adapt their strategies based on the opposing lineup or in-game situations often struggle. The inability to change pitch selection or approach can be detrimental.
Case Studies: Successful vs. Unsuccessful Teams
Let’s look at two notable case studies that exemplify the differences in pitching strategy between successful and unsuccessful MLB teams.
Case Study 1: Houston Astros
The Houston Astros have become a prominent example of success through innovative pitching strategies. Key factors include:
- Advanced Analytics: The Astros utilize comprehensive data analytics to inform pitch selection and defensive alignments.
- Player Development: They have invested heavily in developing young pitchers, emphasizing mechanics and pitch variety.
Case Study 2: Texas Rangers
In contrast, the Texas Rangers have faced challenges that stem from ineffective pitching strategies:
- Injury Issues: A history of injuries among key pitchers has hindered their performance and consistency.
- Inconsistent Bullpen: The Rangers have struggled to find reliable options in their bullpen, often leading to blown saves and late-game losses.
Benefits of a Robust Pitching Strategy
Implementing an effective pitching strategy can yield numerous benefits for an MLB team:
- Improved Win Percentage: Teams with strong pitching records often see a direct correlation with their overall win percentages.
- Longer Playoff Runs: A healthy and effective pitching staff increases the chances of deep playoff runs and championship titles.
- Fan Engagement: Fans are drawn to teams with exciting pitching performances, leading to higher attendance and greater community support.
Practical Tips for Building a Successful Pitching Strategy
Here are some practical strategies for teams aiming to improve their pitching performance:
- Invest in Technology: Utilize analytics and technology to assess player performance accurately and to refine pitch selection.
- Prioritize Health and Wellness: Develop comprehensive conditioning programs to keep pitchers healthy and reduce the risk of injury.
- Cultivate a Positive Culture: Foster an environment where pitchers feel motivated to share ideas and learn from one another.
First-Hand Experience: Insights from MLB Pitchers
Based on interviews with various pitchers, several insights have emerged regarding what they believe contributes to their success:
- Confidence: Many successful pitchers emphasize the importance of confidence in their abilities, which often leads to better performance on the mound.
- Communication: Effective communication with catchers and coaches is vital for adapting strategies in-game.
Table: Comparison of Successful and Unsuccessful MLB Teams
| Trait | Successful Teams | Unsuccessful Teams |
|---|---|---|
| Pitch Arsenal | Diverse and well-utilized | Predictable and limited |
| Bullpen Depth | Deep and reliable | Inconsistent and stretched |
| Strikeout Rate | High strikeouts | Low strikeouts |
| Injury Management | Proactive prevention | Reactive and unprepared |
Conclusion
Understanding the effective and ineffective pitching strategies in Major League Baseball sheds light on the complexities of the sport. By analyzing the traits and approaches of both successful and unsuccessful teams, aspiring players, coaches, and fans can gain valuable insights into the art of pitching.
