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Recent evidence suggests that nearly any team has the capability to win it all if they can secure a postseason spot — notably, three of the four teams that reached the World Series in the last two years were Wild Card entrants. However, there are distinct benefits associated with winning a division.
The primary advantage is the bye awarded to the top two division champions in each league, allowing them to skip the potentially perilous Wild Card Series. This was highlighted once more on Wednesday and Thursday, when the American League West champion Astros faced a sweep by the Tigers, and the National League Central champion Brewers were ousted by the Mets in a three-game set.
This year, the teams receiving first-round byes in the playoffs include the Guardians, Yankees, Dodgers, and Phillies. The matchups for the Division Series are determined: the Tigers will meet the Guardians, the Royals — following their 2-1 victory that completed a sweep against the Orioles in the AL Wild Card Series — will challenge the Yankees, the Mets will take on the Phillies, and the Padres will compete against the Dodgers after defeating the Braves.
Each team that earned a first-round bye did so through impressive regular-season performances, yet they, like all teams, have their vulnerabilities. Below is an analysis of how each team can be challenged in the Division Series by an underdog aiming to make a surprising impact in the baseball world.
ALDS: Guardians (vs. Tigers)
How to beat them: Attack the starters — prevent Cleveland from using their bullpen with a lead
The Guardians possess the best bullpen in baseball. With a reliever ERA of 2.57, the lowest this season, and Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Tim Herrin all maintaining ERAs below 2.00, alongside Emmanuel Clase’s impressive 0.61 ERA anchoring the backend, games can swiftly become challenging if you’re trailing.
For the Tigers in the ALDS, the strategy must focus on scoring quickly and consistently against Cleveland’s starting pitchers. This task is not as daunting as it might seem against the Guardians’ bullpen — their starting rotation ended the season ranked 24th in MLB with a 4.40 ERA.
With ace Shane Bieber, a former Cy Young Award winner, sidelined due to Tommy John surgery, and both Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen being optioned to Triple-A after each posting ERAs exceeding 5.00, the starting rotation stands as the team’s greatest vulnerability. For the Tigers, seizing the opportunity early is crucial.
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The challenge facing the Royals’ pitching staff is quite clear, though not simple: prevent Judge and Soto from making an impact. Force the other hitters in the lineup to secure the crucial hit. Kansas City possesses the talent necessary to achieve this, especially within its starting rotation — Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo lead a group that ranked second in MLB with a 3.55 ERA.
NLDS: Dodgers (vs. Padres)
Strategy: Exploit a thin starting rotation
The Dodgers have qualified for the postseason for twelve consecutive years; however, they have secured just one World Series championship, which they claimed during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Throughout much of this period, they have been formidable both offensively and defensively. Despite boasting one of the most powerful lineups in baseball this year, spearheaded by NL MVP candidate Shohei Ohtani, their pitching staff tells a different story, particularly the starters.
This season, the depth of the starting rotation has been a concern, and as the playoffs begin, they find themselves without key offseason signing Tyler Glasnow, along with right-hander Gavin Stone and distinguished veteran Clayton Kershaw (at least for the Division Series).
At the same time, Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be making his playoff debut, while Jack Flaherty, who performed admirably for most of the year, has struggled recently (with a 6.43 ERA over his last three regular-season appearances). Walker Buehler has yet to regain his form from before his Tommy John surgery, ending the regular season with a 5.38 ERA across 16 starts.
Given the condition of their rotation, the Dodgers face a challenging path to the World Series victory, and the Padres can leverage L.A.’s obvious weakness by putting early pressure on the starting pitchers. San Diego has notably been successful against Yamamoto this season, having scored eight runs in six innings during two matchups against him.
NLDS: Phillies (vs. Mets)
Strategy: Force them to swing at breaking pitches
The Phillies boast an exceptional one-two punch at the front of their starting rotation with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, two pitchers who significantly contributed to Philadelphia’s World Series run in 2022. Behind them are Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez, both of whom enjoyed impressive seasons on the mound as well.
On the offensive side, the Phillies ranked fifth in MLB for runs scored, and with stars like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and T32.9% of pitches were thrown outside the strike zone by opposing pitchers, the highest percentage recorded by any team during the regular season. Consequently, Philadelphia ranked 16th with a .276 xwOBA. Additionally, considering that Philadelphia’s hitters recently posted a chase rate of 34.1%—the third-highest monthly chase rate for any team this season—it seems like an ideal moment to heavily employ breaking pitches that miss the strike zone.
Underdog Strategies: How to Topple Division Winners in the MLB Division Series
Understanding the Underdog Advantage
In Major League Baseball (MLB), the postseason brings intense competition, especially during the Division Series. While division winners often have the upper hand, smart bettors can find value in underdog strategies. Understanding how to leverage statistics, player performances, and situational advantages can turn the tide in favor of the underdog.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pitching Matchups: Analyze the starting pitchers for each game. Underdogs often have hidden advantages in their pitching rotation.
- Injuries: Keep track of player injuries which can significantly affect team performance.
- Recent Performance: Evaluate how teams have performed in the last few games leading up to the series.
- Home vs. Away Performance: Some teams play better at home, while others thrive in away games. This can be crucial during the playoffs.
Statistical Analysis for Underdog Betting
When it comes to betting on MLB underdogs, a statistical approach is essential. Here are some strategies to consider:
1. Historical Performance Against Division Winners
Review how underdog teams have fared against division winners historically. Look for patterns where certain underdogs have consistently performed well in the postseason.
2. Offensive and Defensive Metrics
| Team | Runs Scored | Runs Allowed | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog A | 750 | 650 | 0.540 |
| Division Winner B | 800 | 500 | 0.600 |
Analyze metrics such as runs scored, runs allowed, and overall win percentage for both the underdog and the division winner. These figures can provide insights into the potential outcome of the series.
3. Bullpen Strength
In the postseason, games can hinge on the performance of bullpens. An underdog with a strong bullpen can make a significant difference, especially in close games. Look for teams that have a reliable set of relief pitchers to back up their starters.
Psychological Factors in Playoff Series
The mental game plays a crucial role in the postseason. Understanding how pressure affects players and teams can inform your betting strategies.
- Pressure on Favorites: Division winners may feel the weight of expectations, which can lead to mistakes.
- Momentum Shifts: Winning a game can boost an underdog’s confidence, creating a snowball effect.
Case Studies of Successful Underdog Wins
Looking at past playoff series can provide practical insights into successful underdog strategies.
Example 1: 2019 Wild Card Team
In 2019, a wild card team upset a division champion by focusing on their pitching depth and utilizing a strong bullpen. Their consistent performance in the final weeks of the season caught the division winner off guard, resulting in a surprising series outcome.
Example 2: 2020 Underdog Victory
Another notable instance was in 2020 when an underdog team leveraged their speed on the base paths to generate runs against a heavily favored opponent. Their aggressive base running and strategic hitting proved to be the difference in the series.
Practical Tips for Betting on Underdogs
- Shop for the Best Lines: Different sportsbooks offer varying odds. Look for the best value when betting on underdogs.
- Follow Expert Analysis: Utilize insights from sports analysts who specialize in MLB betting.
- Stay Informed: Keep up with news regarding injuries, trades, and player performances.
- Manage Your Bankroll: Implement a solid bankroll management strategy to withstand the fluctuations of betting outcomes.
Conclusion: Making Your Bets Count
Using these strategies, you can enhance your chances of successfully betting on underdog teams in the MLB Division Series. By analyzing key metrics, understanding psychological factors, and learning from past case studies, you position yourself to take advantage of the unique dynamics of playoff baseball.
