TORONTO — Following back-to-back losses — particularly disheartening ones — the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves facing a challenging season.
Here are some reflections!
1. The power play might be the Leafs’ most significant issue at the moment.
Since the start of the season, the unit has struggled, converting only 11 percent of its chances so far — that’s three goals out of 27 opportunities.
Although the top group has occasionally shown signs of life, they continue to miss crucial chances to help the Leafs regain momentum in games.
During Thursday’s matchup, the Leafs were trailing 1-0 when they received their first power play opportunity against the Blues. The first unit was plagued by turnovers, resulting in no scoring. Shortly after, the Blues capitalized on their power play. On their subsequent opportunity, the Leafs maintained possession but failed to get any shots through to the net.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson was quickly brought in to replace Morgan Rielly on that top unit this fall, and despite sporadic moments of effectiveness, it hasn’t been nearly sufficient.
The issues extend beyond just the results; the overall quality of play has worsened this season. The numbers from 2023-24 reflect a decline in power play performance during the second half of games.
| Per 60 mins | 2024-25 | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|
This demonstrates a decline in both quantity and quality.
After experiencing power-play failures during the postseason over the past several years, along with second-half slumps, I believed the Leafs should have begun the season with two star-studded units: one featuring Auston Matthews and William Nylander and the other centered around Mitch Marner and John Tavares.
Now, I think it’s time to revisit this idea. Not only could it invigorate a first unit that seems to have lost its edge, but it could also foster healthy competition between the two groups.
Perhaps a setup like this could work:
PPA: Matthews, Nylander, Ekman-Larsson, Max Domi, Matthew Knies
PPB: Marner, Tavares, Rielly, Nick Robertson, Bobby McMann
Although it’s early in the season, the pressure is mounting on first-year assistant Marc Savard to resolve this issue following the 5-1 defeat against St. Louis.
2. What stands out about the numerous rush chances and defensive lapses the Leafs have experienced in recent games is the involvement of the Matthews-led top line.
This unit, which includes Marner and Knies, was responsible for conceding three goals in Columbus and allowed two more against St. Louis. A particular moment that caught attention was a miscommunication between Matthews and Jake McCabe, which Craig Berube later described as “lazy hockey.”
The statistics for this line over the last two games are quite revealing:
- Goals: 0-5
- Shots: 7-13
- Expected goals: 28 percent
It’s important to note that the struggles aren’t limited to just the Matthews line, and it has caused significant concern.
the Leafs coach. “Some of them are mental mistakes, and some of them we need to be tougher; we must be more physical in preventing plays,” Berube stated after his initial game against his former team.
I do wonder if the remarkable goaltending from Anthony Stolarz was masking some deficiencies prior to the two-game slump.
3. Aside from Matthews, the centre situation appears quite unstable, with no clear solution to enhance the situation.
Domi has increasingly seemed stretched as the second-line center (which is not unexpected), and Tavares’ recent assignments and line partners have felt inadequate. Berube switched their positions in the third period on Thursday.
It seems the Leafs are facing a challenging situation with Tavares, grappling with two crucial questions that lack clear answers:
- How should he be utilized?
- Who should be paired with him?
For the first time in his career, Tavares has an offensive-zone faceoff percentage below 50 percent. He has primarily been used as a checking line center, participating in more defensive-zone faceoffs (23) than offensive-zone draws (19) during five-on-five play.
This does not appear to be the best way to utilize Tavares. This is not only due to his skill set and line partners but also because he is 34 years old and in his 16th NHL season.
However, adjustments began to take shape against St. Louis, with Tavares receiving more opportunities offensively while, for the third period at least, reclaiming his position as the second-line center. In fact, the Leafs scored their sole goal against the Blues following an offensive-zone draw that Tavares orchestrated.
The Leafs have outscored opponents 5-1 at five-on-five with Tavares on the ice, but the underlying metrics are not encouraging. Last season, the Leafs generated an average of 3.1 expected goals per 60 minutes with their then-captain on the ice. This season, that figure has dwindled to a mere 1.6.
It relates to deployment and line partners.
Tavares lost Nylander as a linemate after the season’s second game. Until a mid-game change on Thursday, his line partners consisted of various combinations of Robertson, Pontus Holmberg, Max Pacioretty, and Steven Lorentz. Like Tavares, Robertson and Pacioretty are shoot-first players, while Holmberg and Lorentz have limited offensive capabilities.
So, who is expected to deliver the puck to Tavares?
Yet, it’s unclear what Berube and his staff should do about this dilemma.
Reuniting Tavares with Nylander (or pairing Tavares with Marner) raises further questions regarding Domi and the third-line center position.
If Domi were to be moved down, for example, who would his partners be? And what would the role of that line be?
This uncertainty is part of why genuinely experimenting with Nylander at center made a great deal of sense and why abandoning that approach so soon was puzzling.
4. I wonder if the Leafs should consider separating Matthews and Marner in an effort to create (or at least attempt to create) three balanced lines with a reasonable chance to score and generate plays.
I’m just not convinced the necessary pieces are in place to make this work. This team currently lacks genuine top-nine forwards, especially with Calle Järnkrok sidelined and Pacioretty (who is already a question mark for that role at this stage of his career) injured.
It’s also worth mentioning that Matthews has netted only two five-on-five goals in the first eight games.
Auston Matthews has registered just two five-on-five goals in the first eight games. (John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)
Related: He is currently shooting at a rate of 7.7 percent, which would mark — by a significant margin — the lowest percentage of his career.
Interestingly, Matthews’ individual shot attempt rates are elevated, reflecting an increase in both the number and quality of chances that the Leafs are producing while he is on the ice.
Nonetheless, that line must deliver for the Leafs. This team has managed to score a goal or less in three separate games so far.
5. David Kämpf finds himself in a somewhat ineffective role based on his current deployment.
This season, he has dropped down the depth chart concerning the penalty kill and surprisingly, he no longer takes defensive-zone faceoffs. Kämpf has curiously registered the fewest defensive-zone faceoffs among Leaf regulars this season (12).
His usage in this area has decreased by half compared to last season.
This raises the question of how Kämpf, who carries a cap hit of $2.4 million, is expected to aid the Leafs.
—Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference
(Top photo of Mitch Marner: Chris Tanouye / Getty Images)
Toronto Maple Leafs Struggling on Power Play and Defensive Breakdown: Five Key Issues After Back-to-Back Losses
Introduction to Recent Struggles
The Toronto Maple Leafs have faced a challenging start to the season, particularly highlighted by their recent back-to-back losses. Fans and analysts alike are questioning the team’s performance, specifically regarding their power play efficiency and defensive strategies. In this article, we will delve into five key issues contributing to these struggles, providing insights and analysis to understand the situation better.
1. Ineffective Power Play Strategies
The Maple Leafs’ power play, which was once a significant strength, has seen a dramatic decline in effectiveness. Current statistics reveal that the team is converting at a rate far below league average.
- Low Conversion Rate: The Leafs have struggled to capitalize on man-advantage situations, converting only 15% of their power plays, placing them near the bottom of the league.
- Predictable Plays: Opposing teams have begun to anticipate the Leafs’ power play setups, making it easier to defend against them. The lack of movement and creativity in their plays has rendered them ineffective.
- Inconsistent Line Combinations: Frequent changes in player lineups during power plays have disrupted chemistry and understanding among players, leading to missed opportunities.
2. Defensive Breakdown and Poor Coverage
Defensively, the Leafs have exhibited significant breakdowns that have cost them crucial games. These lapses in coverage are alarming and have led to easy scoring opportunities for opponents.
- Sustained Pressure from Opponents: The Leafs have struggled to handle sustained offensive pressure, leading to defensive breakdowns and turnovers in high-risk areas.
- Poor Communication: There have been multiple instances of miscommunication among defensemen, resulting in players being left unmarked in dangerous areas.
- Failure to Clear the Zone: The inability to effectively clear the puck from their defensive zone has allowed opponents to maintain possession and create scoring chances.
3. Goaltending Concerns
Another critical issue that has been highlighted during this stretch of games is the performance of the goaltending duo. While goaltending can often mask defensive deficiencies, the opposite has occurred for the Leafs recently.
- Inconsistent Performances: Both goaltenders have shown inconsistencies, with several soft goals allowed during crucial moments of games.
- Overworked Goalies: Due to defensive lapses, goalies are facing more high-quality shots than usual, leading to fatigue and a decline in performance.
4. Lack of Offensive Depth
While the top line of the Maple Leafs boasts elite talent, the lack of scoring depth across the lineup has become increasingly evident. This scenario places undue pressure on the top players to produce consistently.
- Reliance on Star Players: The team relies heavily on a few key players for offensive production, which is unsustainable throughout a long season.
- Underperforming Secondary Scorers: Players who are expected to contribute regularly have not been meeting expectations, leading to a one-dimensional attack.
5. Coaching Decisions and Game Management
Coaching strategies and decisions have come under scrutiny as the Maple Leafs navigate through these rough patches. Effective game management is crucial for success, especially in tight games.
- Questionable Line Changes: Frequent and sometimes ill-timed line changes have disrupted player flow and rhythm during games.
- Late-Game Strategies: The approach to managing games, especially in the final minutes, has raised concerns. The team has allowed late goals due to conservative play.
Case Study: Recent Games
Analyzing the last two losses can provide a clearer picture of these issues in action. In both games, the Maple Leafs held leads but failed to close out matches due to a combination of power play inefficiencies and defensive lapses.
| Game | Power Play Efficiency | Goals Against | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | 0/4 | 4 | 3-4 Loss |
| Game 2 | 1/5 | 5 | 2-5 Loss |
Practical Tips for Improvement
To address these issues and turn the season around, several strategies could be implemented:
- Revamping the Power Play: The coaching staff should consider new formations and encourage creativity among players during power plays.
- Defensive Drills: More focused practice on defensive drills can help enhance communication and coverage among players.
- Goaltending Support: Providing targeted support and analysis for goaltenders can help them regain confidence and improve consistency.
- Engaging Secondary Scorers: Encouraging secondary scorers to step up and assume more responsibility in scoring could relieve pressure from top players.
Conclusion
The Maple Leafs face a critical juncture in their season as they address these pressing issues. By focusing on improving their power play, solidifying defensive play, and enhancing overall team chemistry, they can hope to reverse their fortunes and get back on the path to success.
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