The offseason presents an excellent opportunity for teams seeking to bolster their rotation.
This year’s free agent market boasts a wealth of talented starting pitchers, further strengthened by the recent news that Japan’s top pitcher will be posted for international bids. However, how do these exceptional arms truly compare?
To determine this, MLB.com’s expert panel collaborated on a final 2024 Starting Pitcher Power Rankings dedicated exclusively to free agents. The results are in, showcasing each pitcher alongside their predicted 2024 team.
1. Corbin Burnes, Orioles
Burnes presents a compelling case. He boasts an impressive four consecutive All-Star selections and is almost guaranteed to achieve another top-10 Cy Young Award finish. The 30-year-old has consistently thrown over 190 innings with an ERA+ exceeding 125 for three straight seasons. On the other hand, his strikeout and whiff rates have dropped significantly from their peak levels in 2021-22. This past season, Burnes’ 23.1% K rate ranked only 29th among 58 qualified pitchers. While this could raise concerns for teams considering a long-term commitment, Burnes remains the top contender in this class due to his sustained effectiveness.
2. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines (NPB)
Why will Sasaki become the target of fierce competition from MLB teams once his posting begins? Imagine an incredibly talented pitcher like NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner Paul Skenes suddenly becoming available to every team. Sasaki, who turned 23 on November 3rd, is only seven months older than Skenes. Like the Pirates right-hander, Sasaki possesses elite power stuff that ranks among the best in baseball. Similar to Shohei Ohtani’s entry into MLB in 2017, Sasaki will be subject to international bonus pool limitations, meaning that any team signing him will commit to a relatively minimal financial investment initially.
There are inherent risks, especially concerning health and durability, but Sasaki’s potential is arguably the highest among all free agents this year, aside from Juan Soto.
3. Blake Snell, Giants
Snell’s first venture into free agency proved less than ideal. Despite winning his second Cy Young Award in 2023, the left-handed pitcher languished on the market until mid-March before ultimately signing a one-year deal with the Giants, with a player option for 2025. Snell is expected to fare better this time around after opting out of his contract. Although his late start during the previous season initially seemed to hinder him, Snell became virtually untouchable in the final three months, recording a 1.23 ERA and 1.77 FIP across 14 starts, including a no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds on August 2nd. Opponents hit a meager .123/.211/.171 off him during this period. While Snell will always face questions about his durability and elevated walk rates, at his peak, he’s one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers.
4. Max Fried, Braves
Here’s a statistic that might surprise you: Among the 67 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 innings over the past five seasons, Fried boasts the best ERA+ (151), significantly outperforming Burnes and Zack Wheeler (141). Of course, Fried sits 25th in innings and 34th in strikeout rate among this group, which perhaps explains his ranking outside the top three on this list. Fried hasn’t consistently blown hitters away with velocity or racked up strikeouts, but he excels at preventing runs.
1. Spencer Strider, BravesAfter spending his first two seasons in Atlanta mostly as a dominant late-inning reliever and opener, Strider made the full transition to a starting pitcher role in 2024. He thrived, finishing with an absurd 13.7 K/9 rate (second highest among starters) despite avoiding any hard contact whatsoever and keeping the ball grounded within the ballpark boundaries.
2. Gerrit Cole, Yankees
Cole consistently delivers impactful performances. The Yankees can rely on him to throw strikes and miss bats, often at an elite level. His ability to work deep into games makes him a valuable asset.
3. Max Fried, Braves
Fried is a proven champion and the epitome of consistency. He’s consistently delivered excellent results for his Atlanta fanbase, demonstrating remarkable control while keeping his numbers low across various pitching metrics. His effectiveness on the mound makes him a foundational piece for the Braves. He has even excelled in clutch moments, solidifying his reputation as a reliable pitcher who shines under pressure.
4. Corbin Burnes, Brewers
Burnes, has been dominant throughout his start in Milwaukee. He avoids hard contact expertly while maintaining a consistent presence of putting the ball in play and limiting damage. This consistency fuels his success on the mound and sets him apart as a top pitching talent.
5. Jack Flaherty, Dodgers
Like Fried, Flaherty hails from the prestigious Harvard-Westlake High School in Southern California. However, unlike Fried, Flaherty’s career has been marked by inconsistency. Even during the Dodgers’ successful 2024 championship run, he showcased both brilliance and struggles in starts. This pattern reflects his potential as a highly skilled pitcher who has faced challenges with injuries and variations in performance since entering Major League Baseball. The positive aspect for Flaherty (and any team considering him) is that he’s relatively young for a free agent (turning 29 in October). He’s also maintained good health over the past two seasons and exhibited effectiveness during the 2024 campaign. Although he presents some risk, Flaherty’s upside could generate considerable interest on the free-agent market.
6. Sean Manaea, Mets
In mid-June, it seemed improbable that Manaea would end up in this position. The 32-year-old left-hander, coming off underwhelming stints with the Padres and Giants, sported a 4.30 ERA through his first 12 starts with the Mets. However, Manaea experienced a remarkable turnaround. From there on, he tallied a 9-3 record with a 3.05 ERA and over a strikeout per inning across his final 20 outings. This impressive run included three solid postseason starts. Along the way, inspired by Chris Sale’s approach, Manaea lowered his release point, seeing positive results.
7. Shane Bieber, Guardians
Whichever team signs Bieber will be acquiring a proven talent who consistently displays dominance on the mound. While his velocity isn’t the highest among pitchers, Bieber excels at generating swings and misses with his off-speed pitches. His exceptional command and ability to limit walks make him a consistent threat to opposing batters.
The 29-year-old right-hander is diligently recovering from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in April. This uncertainty presents both a challenge and an opportunity for teams seeking to bolster their rotations with a star-caliber pitcher on a relatively short-term commitment. Prior to his injury, Bieber was among MLB’s elite starters from 2019 to 2022, culminating in the AL Cy Young Award in 2020. After a less impressive 2023 season, he displayed remarkable form early this past year before suffering a UCL tear. Should Bieber experience a strong recovery, he has the potential to re-emerge as a premier ace within the next couple of seasons.
Others receiving votes: Luis Severino, Tomoyuki Sugano, Nick Martinez, Nick Pivetta, Max Scherzer, Charlie Morton, Jose Quintana
Voters: David Adler, Chris Begley, Brett Blueweiss, Jason Catania, Scott Chiusano, Doug Gausepohl, Thomas Harrigan, Bryan Horowitz, Ricardo Montes de Oca, Brian Murphy, Arturo Pardavila, Manny Randhawa, David Venn, Zac Vierra, Tom Vourtsis, Andy Werle
