With NFL Week 6 now in the rearview mirror, I have a pretty solid grasp of the league’s top teams … the Chiefs, Ravens, Vikings, Texans, Lions, Bills, and possibly the Packers. There are also a few teams that are intriguing to watch, like the Falcons, Buccaneers, Commanders, and Bears. Beyond that, I feel I’ve seen enough to make some early conclusions. Let’s fast-forward to the anticipated Ravens-Lions Super Bowl.
(No one is actually reading this introduction, right? And these can’t be screenshotted, can they?)
While the hierarchy of NFL teams seems clearer than ever this season, significant changes are expected before playoffs arrive, especially among the numerous 3-3 teams. This week, my attention is on the Cowboys.
Every Tuesday, I’ll analyze the previous week’s NFL matchups, evaluating the implications of the biggest storylines and what lies ahead. We’ll explore the aftermath of “Monday Night Football,” dissect a couple of major trends, and spotlight key players and memorable moments. There will be film breakdowns, abundant statistics (including a dedicated section for them), and plenty of entertainment. Let’s dive in.
Jump to a section:
The Big Thing: Eulogy of the 2024 Cowboys
Mailbag: Answering questions from … you
Preseason lie detector test: Week 6 hindsight
Second Take: Colts can’t stick with Flacco
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 6 stats
‘Monday Night Football’ spin
The Big Thing: The Cowboys struggle to rise again
Each week, this column will begin with a broad focus on a significant game, player, or trend observed from the previous Sunday’s NFL action. What implications does it hold for the remainder of the season?
Back in 2021, the Dallas Cowboys finished with a 12-5 record, scoring a total of 530 points— a franchise record during Mike McCarthy’s second year as head coach. Quarterback Dak Prescott amassed 4,449 passing yards and a career-high 37 touchdown throws, while CeeDee Lamb topped the Cowboys’ receiving corps with 1,102 yards, achieving this in just his second season. Micah Parsons was named Defensive Rookie of the Year, and cornerback Trevon Diggs recorded 11 interceptions but surprisingly did not win Defensive Player of the Year. Zack Martin maintained his elite performance. The Cowboys were indeed a strong football team.
Despite their regular-season achievements, the Cowboys fell 23-17 to the 49ers in the wild-card playoff game.
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The following year, in 2022, the Cowboys mirrored their record with another 12-5 finish but encountered more drama along the way. Prescott missed several games (backup Cooper Rush stepped in and went 4-0) and led the league with 15 interceptions. However, Lamb solidified his status among the elite with 1,359 receiving yards, Parsons earned his second first-team All-Pro honor, and the Cowboys remained a formidable team.
They defeated the Buccaneers in the playoffs, marking their first road playoff victory since 1992, but again faced the 49ers in the divisional round, resulting in a 19-12 defeat. The season ended there.
In 2023, the Cowboys yet again
The team finished with a record of 12-5. Prescott managed to curb his interception tendencies, Lamb continued to shine, and cornerback DaRon Bland stepped up impressively. Yet, none of that seems to matter anymore. Let’s skip ahead to the conclusion of the tale. The Cowboys, having won the division, hosted the Packers and faced a heartbreaking defeat. They trailed 27-7 by halftime and ultimately lost 48-32. Despite three consecutive seasons with 12 wins in the regular season, they still have not reached a conference championship game.
At that moment, the game against Green Bay was both astonishing and somehow expected. Although the Packers barely qualified for the playoffs, the Cowboys had a history of postseason disappointments. However, it hardly felt like a sign of things to come. Yet here we find ourselves, six weeks into the regular season, and the Cowboys have once again stumbled in their own stadium. At halftime against the Lions, they were down 27-6, just three weeks after trailing the Ravens 21-6 and four weeks after being behind the Saints 35-16.
In the last four home games, the Cowboys have a first-half point differential of minus-75, and unsurprisingly, they sit at 0-4. This season, their record stands at 3-3, with road victories coming by a mere total of 24 points. Conversely, their three home losses have resulted in a cumulative defeat of 66 points. Dallas finds itself among only two teams in the past decade to hold at least a .500 record after six games while maintaining a point differential as low as minus-42; the other is the 2023 Commanders (3-3, minus-43), who concluded the season at 4-13.
Currently, two distinct factors are influencing Dallas: the micro and macro perspectives. The micro view is alarmingly clear and troubling. The Cowboys are struggling against any offense that is coherent. The offseason departure of longtime defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has severely impacted the team’s defense. Quinn’s dedication to a deep pool of passionate pass rushers consistently positioned the Cowboys among the league leaders in pressure rates each season. After he accepted the head coaching position with the Commanders, depth rushers Dante Fowler Jr. and Dorance Armstrong followed him to Washington. Adding to their woes, injuries struck at inopportune moments, sidelining Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and rookie Marshawn Kneeland for the game against the Lions, although the Dallas pass rush was already declining to a merely average level even before these absences compounded their struggles.
1:19
Dan Orlovsky: Jerry Jones doesn’t have pulse of his Cowboys team
Dan Orlovsky criticizes Jerry Jones following the Cowboys’ shocking loss to the Lions.
As new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer adjusts this depth chart to fit his system, discrepancies have become evident. Diggs no longer resembles the ball-hawking star he was under Quinn. The undersized linebackers, DeMarvion Overshown and Damone Clark, were selected for Quinn’s defensive setup but lack the sturdiness needed to withstand the rigors of Zimmer’s scheme. Defensive tackles Mazi Smith and Osa Odighizuwa are facing challenges in the trenches. Not a single defender is currently outperforming how they played under Quinn, nor is there any unexpected contributor stepping up. The Cowboys’ defense is yielding 0.17 expected points added (EPA) per run. This figure not only ranks as the worst among the 2024 defenses but would also mark the lowest single-season performance since 2006.
The narrative surrounding the defense revolves around a schematic overhaul and misaligned personnel—a common theme in the NFL. The offense experiences a familiar storyline of simple talent decline.
The Cowboys’ offense in 2021, which scored 530 points, featured Prescott, Lamb, Martin, and Ezekiel Elliott. While all these players remain with the 2024 team, Elliott has significantly declined, becoming a symbol of the offense’s gradual deterioration. Everything surrounding Dallas’ stars—Prescott, Lamb, and Martin—has diminished over time. The offensive line has lost Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz. The once-strong pass-catching group, including Michael Gallup, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz, has been unmade by injuries and contract issues, leaving slots filled by Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson. Elliott, who was once agile and supported by the dynamic Tony Pollard, now finds himself in a situation where Pollard is thriving as the primary option.
in Tennessee, despite having faced difficulties in a similar position last season in Dallas.
Watching the Cowboys’ offense for just two series reveals the glaring absence of playmakers and options. Each successful non-Lamb target that moves the chains feels like a stroke of luck. Even following such a play, the opposing defense is eager to come out in man coverage, challenging Tolbert, Jalen Brooks, and KaVontae Turpin to keep proving themselves. Furthermore, Dallas unequivocally struggles to run the football. None of the running backs (Elliott, Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, or Hunter Luepke) possess any explosiveness. The team has recorded only four explosive rushes from its running backs so far; only two teams have fewer.
In the NFL, talent and team dynamics are not fixed. Players’ performance can fluctuate significantly from year to year. In this sport, characterized by its precision and physicality, where the regular season is brief and playoffs are one-and-done, the margins for error are razor-thin. When you possess a formidable roster—such as a quarterback throwing 37 touchdowns, a young receiver amassing 1,400 yards, an All-Pro pass rusher on a rookie deal, and a cornerback boasting an 11-interception peak season—you must capitalize on it immediately. Failing to do so means you might not get another chance, even if you maintain the same lineup the following season. As Dan Campbell, the opposing coach to the Cowboys on Sunday, reminded his Lions after their NFC Championship Game loss in January, “This may have been our only shot.”
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This brings us to our broader perspective, which still revolves around attrition—though of a distinct nature. The Cowboys have experienced a profound and unique pain stemming from a blend of regular-season success and postseason failures in recent years. Their consistent winning in the regular season heightens expectations, making the fall in the postseason even more devastating. Time and again, the McCarthy-era Cowboys have scaled the heights only to descend back down.
Now, this team appears unable to rise from the canvas. It lacks the vigor to scale that mountain once more, especially given the departures of numerous players and coaches. Those who remain are now a year older, more battered, and increasingly disillusioned. Whatever sharp edge the Cowboys once boasted as contenders has become blunt.
Take a look at the quarterback. Prescott was a frontrunner in the MVP race for the entirety of last season. Currently? He appears to be his old self for five or six plays, maybe seven—then suddenly becomes erratic and reckless. This inconsistency is particularly alarming in the red zone, where he ranks last in success rate among 31 quarterbacks this season and is third from the bottom in EPA per dropback. Before reaching the 20-yard line, he stands at 18th in both metrics. Although that is far from exhilarating, it is at least somewhat average.
While I’m not entirely certain why Prescott’s performance has regressed compared to last season, I believe he can rediscover his rhythm. I also can’t explain why Lamb has recorded only two games with double-digit targets this season, considering he ended last season with seven consecutive games of such caliber, yet I remain hopeful he can regain that dominance as well. What I do not believe is that correcting these issues will bring about anything new for Dallas. Perhaps the Cowboys will secure a few more wins in the regular season, but they have already done that, and it has ceased to be intriguing. It hasn’t been captivating for some time now.
This team seems to be floundering, and you can sense it teetering on the brink. The Cowboys were poised to compete in 2021, 2022, and possibly still in 2023, but they have struggled to capitalize effectively. We can replay discussions about postseason Prescott and McCarthy’s game management ad nauseam, but those belong to a different eulogy. This is a farewell for the 2024 Cowboys, the camel with one straw too many on its fractured back. They have regressed slightly across the board.
It’s not necessarily anyone’s fault. Jerry Jones could have made better draft choices. McCarthy
There should have been better development of players. Prescott and the other key players need to elevate their performance. However, it’s not entirely anyone’s fault, as time inevitably moves on, somewhat hastened by those painful playoff defeats. This scenario is typical for contending teams; they contend for a time … and then their efforts gradually decline.
9:15
Stephen A. discusses the issues plaguing the Cowboys.
Stephen A. Smith, Dan Orlovsky, and Shannon Sharpe analyze the Lions’ significant victory over the Cowboys.
Perhaps Dallas will address its running game during the bye week, and maybe some adjustments on the offensive line will be beneficial. Tolbert has shown potential as a secondary pass catcher, while Dowdle has proven himself as a versatile back with receiving skills. The return of Bland, Parsons, and Lawrence to the defense, combined with additional familiarity with the new Zimmer defense, might eventually restore this unit to its former strength. We will quickly see if these changes yield different results: the challenging 49ers, who have been a thorn in the side of the McCarthy era in Dallas, will face the Cowboys in Week 8. A victory over the 49ers, a team that the Cowboys have not defeated since 2020, could potentially rejuvenate this season in an instant.
Yet, even if everything aligns perfectly for Dallas, what defines this team? The same roster includes familiar stars and coaches, now with slightly diminished support. Each player is a year older and perhaps a bit more frustrated. The Lions will be waiting for Dallas in the postseason, along with the Packers and, inevitably, the Niners. Why should there be any expectation of a different outcome for Dallas this season?
From y’all
The most rewarding aspect of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Connect with me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or via email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime — especially on Mondays — to pose a question that could be answered here.
From Tyler: “I feel like safeties are increasingly showing their ability to influence games at a level that isn’t currently reflected in their market value. Players like Brian Branch, Xavier McKinney, Jessie Bates III, and Antoine Winfield Jr. are standout performers who make significant impacts. Do you think the position will rise in value again, or are they forever relegated to the lower tier alongside running backs on the positional value ladder?”
Great question, Tyler. I’ve been advocating for the importance of the safety position for several years, and it reached a peak during the 2022 draft. Kyle Hamilton was the top player available and was selected at No. 14, which felt like an enormous oversight.
The challenge with the value of safeties lies in the limited depth of the position. Over the last decade, the top tier has become quite competitive, especially as some elite safeties have hit the open market in recent seasons—Bates, McKinney, and Marcus Williams—boosting the overall market value of the position. As you noted, these top players undoubtedly contribute significantly to their defenses.
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doesn’t significantly influence their defenses in a proportional manner. Instead, they tend to be quite interchangeable. Currently, some of the reliable, middle-tier safeties in the league include Grant Delpit, Reed Blankenship, Amani Hooker, Jalen Thompson, Brandon Jones, and Juan Thornhill. While they are all decent players, how much would a betting line fluctuate if any of them were sidelined for a week? How drastically would a defensive strategy alter without their presence?
Smart organizations actively seek out top-tier safeties when available. In recent years, the Ravens, Chiefs, Packers, Steelers, and Patriots have either drafted or signed elite talent in this position. However, for teams that miss out on the top tier, it’s unwise to overpay for mid-tier safeties. (Just consult any Seahawks fan since the Legion of Boom era ended.)
From Steve: “One aspect of the Bucs that I rarely see discussed is the success Jason Licht has had over the decade or so he has been leading the team. I think he has quietly become one of the best GMs in football during this time; am I off base?”
Not at all. No other general manager has matched Licht’s recent draft-and-develop success over the last five years. Here’s a staggering statistic: 21 different Buccaneers players participated on defense during the game against the Saints last Sunday. Out of them, 17 were drafted by Licht over the last decade, while two of the remaining four were selected prior to his tenure in Tampa Bay. Only Greg Gaines with 21 snaps and C.J. Brewer with nine snaps were acquired from outside the Buccaneers organization.
Keep in mind that this achievement is not dependent on high draft picks. Significant contributions this season have come from Tykee Smith, Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving, Yaya Diaby, SirVocea Dennis, Rachaad White, Cade Otton, and Zyon McCollum. All of these players were chosen in Rounds 3-5 during the past three drafts.
It’s essential to remember that general managers can experience both hot and cold streaks. Nevertheless, the Buccaneers were expected to face a lengthy recovery following the all-in phase with Tom Brady, yet they have effectively navigated this period thanks to Licht’s exceptional drafting. Kudos to him.
1:37
Why Baker Mayfield has earned set-and-forget status in fantasy
Field Yates and Daniel Dopp discuss how Baker Mayfield’s performances have made him a reliable set-and-forget option in fantasy lineups.
From Eric: “DRAKE MAYE??!!!???!?!?!??”
Okay, okay, I’ll get to that. Patience, please. (That young man did seem impressive, didn’t he?)
Preseason lie detector
I’ve been reflecting on some misleading narratives I encountered this summer. While teams can express whatever they wish during training camp, the film reveals the truth. My lie detector was activated this week regarding some prevalent preseason statements.
Preseason Refrain Lie Detector: Drake Maye Needed to Sit
Before the 2024 draft, I was very enthusiastic about Maye, and on Sunday against the Texans, he showcased all the qualities that drew me to him. He exhibited accuracy both while on the move and throwing downfield. Despite facing pressure, he remained composed and made plays even from subpar pockets. When things got tough, his scrambling ability shone through. The Patriots struggled with numerous turnovers, constantly shuffled their offensive linemen, and never had a real chance against Houston—but ultimately, none of that overshadowed how impressive Maye looked.
Though Maye was an intriguing prospect, many justifiably expressed concerns about him playing behind this Patriots offensive line, which started the season poorly and has continued to decline due to injuries. You never want to set your rookie quarterback up for failure by placing him behind ineffective pass protection, hindering his development due to constant hits. Additionally, there is always talk about the value of ‘sitting and learning’ for young quarterbacks, which led many to believe Maye should spend the year on the bench in New England, waiting for a more favorable situation.
This game countered some of those concerns. Although Maye faced a lot of pressure—over 40% of his dropbacks—he managed to handle most of it quite well. He endured significant hits and spent moments on the ground that were quite nerve-wracking, but here’s the reality: The big-bodied, strong-armed, playmaking quarterback is going to absorb some hits no matter when he steps onto the field. If injury is a worry, you may miss the chance to see Maye in action.
Here’s a great example of Maye’s capabilities behind a struggling offensive line. Observe how he looks for a quick out from the tight end, then realizes the cornerback is too close and takes the risks of the throw. Having faced constant losses from his left tackle throughout the game, Maye understands the urgency to escape, not merely to scramble, but to create opportunities. His eyes and momentum pull defenders toward the sideline, opening up space for Hunter Henry to receive a pass near the numbers. It was calm, controlled, and resulted in an explosive gain.
The off-script playmaking Drake Maye provides will be a welcomed boost to the offense. Nice job by Henry working open as Maye leaves the pocket with everything covered. pic.twitter.com/QMUAzHDoE3
— Brian Hines (@iambrianhines) October 14, 2024
Maye finished the game with 20 completions on 33 attempts for 243 yards, along with three touchdown passes and two interceptions. He has the talent to contribute positively to the Patriots’ winning efforts, especially with upcoming games against the Jaguars, Jets, and Titans. I believe they’ll secure one of those victories with Maye’s explosive play potential leading the way. However, I anticipate some challenging moments as well, as there’s little support in the offense for him.
Yet, Maye reflects the prospect he was heralded as coming out of North Carolina, much like how Caleb Williams is proving himself in Chicago and Jayden Daniels is in Washington. Sometimes, rookie quarterbacks don’t need to sit when they possess immense talent. They can take their lumps on the field and progressively improve week after week.
It remains essential for the Patriots to enhance their receiving corps and bolster the offensive line. However, Maye’s season shouldn’t have been spent on the sidelines. I believe he will significantly benefit from active playtime.
Verdict: LIE DETECTED
Preseason Refrain Lie Detector: The Eagles’ Offense Is “95% New”
We probably didn’t need to wait for the season to prove this one inaccurate. The Eagles claimed to be entirely reimagined this year, but…
Under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore this summer, the Eagles aimed to revamp their offense. They planned to incorporate more pre-snap motion, increase plays executed from under center, and deliver more throws from Jalen Hurts targeting the middle of the field. That overly simplistic, college-style offense, which struggled against blitzes, has been discarded.
On Sunday, the Eagles secured a 20-16 victory over the Browns; however, many fans were left feeling unsatisfied due to the team’s lackluster performance. A.J. Brown, returning from injury, was the focal point of scrutiny within the newly structured offense. Below are all the routes that he was targeted on during the Cleveland matchup.
– 6 catches
– 116 yards
– 1 TD
– Game-sealing receptionA.J. Brown was absolutely dominant today. A true game-changer. pic.twitter.com/WmdH5vhNak
— Brenden Deeg (@BrendenDeeg_) October 13, 2024
There’s nothing inherently wrong with utilizing Brown within that specific route tree. Historically, his strengths have included the go ball, the slant, and the deep in-breaker. Against a predominantly man-heavy coverage from the Browns, focusing on go routes and slants is a straightforward and reasonable strategy. However, one wonders… where are those deep in-breakers?
These are the middle-of-the-field targets we expected to see reintegrated into this offense, yet they have been largely absent. Only 7% of Hurts’ pass attempts this season have targeted the middle of the field between 10 and 20 yards downfield, the so-called intermediate area. Only four quarterbacks in the league have a lower percentage of passes aimed at that intermediate range, and this 7% aligns closely with Hurts’ averages from prior seasons.
As for plays under center, they have comprised only 4% of Hurts’ dropbacks this season, marking an increase of less than 1% from his previous seasons. The sole aspect we have seen delivered from the promised changes is pre-snap motion, which the Eagles are now employing on 47% of Hurts’ dropbacks this season—a significant rise from past offenses. Yet, this motion doesn’t alter Brown’s route tree, nor, more crucially, the routes Hurts is inclined to throw. Consequently, the motion has become mere decorative embellishment on the same outdated concepts.
This is not Moore’s offense by any stretch; it’s essentially Hurts’ offense. It’s a spread, gun offense with a complex running game that actively involves the quarterback. It relies on isolation routes and fundamental half-field concepts that exploit wide formations and the run threat via run-pass options. In essence, it’s the same college offense the Eagles have utilized for Hurts for several years.
This offense remains 95% consistent with previous iterations and will inevitably encounter the same issues as before—especially if pass protection falters, particularly as the Eagles grapple with ongoing offensive line injuries.
Verdict: LIE DETECTED
Preseason refrain lie detector: Bo Nix is the most accurate QB in this rookie class even when you remove the short/behind-the-line-of-scrimmage stuff
This claim was made by Denver coach Sean Payton after selecting Nix—asserting that his rookie quarterback was not just the most accurate passer in college football due to frequent short throws, but also effective deep passer. However, here we are six weeks into the NFL season, and Nix has proven to be the least effective downfield passer among rookies.
Rookie QBs throwing 10-plus yards downfield
Yet, the Broncos’ offense is operating as though it has a quarterback it truly does not possess. Denver is throwing
Nix utilizes a considerable number of screens, accounting for 13% of his dropbacks, ranking as the seventh-highest in the league. However, when these screens are excluded from the analysis, Nix’s average time to throw becomes one of the longest in football. Only Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold, who operate within under-center and play-action-heavy systems, have a lower number of quick game dropbacks.
While there are opportunities for Nix to make quick throws or timely checkdowns, he often arrives too late to make the play. Consequently, he tends to hold on to the ball and goes into “creation mode,” missing open receivers and generating substantial pressure (with 78 pressured dropbacks, the fourth most this season). This style of play is seldom acceptable, but it might be tolerable if it resulted in significant downfield passes. Combining screens with the running game, flooding the field with routes, and trying to hit big plays—both structured and improvised—are successful strategies employed by teams like the Bills and Ravens. Unfortunately, they execute these strategies far more effectively than the Broncos, largely due to having quarterbacks capable of sustaining such an approach. The Broncos, however, do not have that capability.
Nix’s accuracy has not met the NFL standard necessary to maintain a traditional dropback passing game. He struggles to recognize routes quickly and hit them consistently. There is certainly potential for improvement in this area, and based on his college performance, I anticipate he will enhance his skills. In the meantime, the offense needs to support him. The running and screen games must become more productive after contact, and the frequency of downfield attempts should decrease in favor of increased checkdowns, which should also yield more yards after the catch. At this point, Nix is not prepared to run a Sean Payton offense.
Verdict: LIE DETECTED
Second Take: No, the Colts shouldn’t stick with Joe Flacco
ESPN’s “First Take” is recognized for providing immediate reactions. In contrast, “Second Take” is a space for letting the situation settle before offering a potentially contrarian perspective.
Watching late-career Joe Flacco is a highlight for me each week. The Colts quarterback plays as if he has nothing to lose (spoiler alert: he truly doesn’t). If there’s even a slight opening for a downfield throw, he takes it. When he’s not attempting long shots, he makes the straightforward plays and lets his talented teammates shine. In essence, he demonstrates the qualities of a capable veteran backup. If paired with an effective playcaller like Kevin Stefanski or Shane Steichen and a few reliable pass catchers, the result could be impressive.
This scenario is common; a veteran quarterback often stabilizes an offense that is more unpredictable with a younger player in charge. We’ve seen this countless times in recent years, with examples such as Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing Tua Tagovailoa, Taylor Heinicke stepping in for Desmond Ridder, and Andy Dalton playing for Bryce Young. This is precisely why these players are labeled as veterans and why they command a salary—they are stabilizing influences.
Just as it’s expected that a veteran backup will bring consistency to an offense, it’s equally predictable that someone will argue that this backup should permanently assume the starting role.
No.
I am firmly convinced that the majority of analysts do not truly observe Anthony Richardson’s performance. Instead, they rely solely on box scores and highlight reels, digesting only the final statistics alongside notable plays, both good and bad. Before Richardson was injured against the Steelers, which led to Flacco’s insertion into the game, he executed a remarkable tight-window throw to Michael Pittman Jr., demonstrating his accuracy and velocity against a closing zone defender.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width
Anthony Richardson’s initial dropback against the Steelers
what could have been… pic.twitter.com/g4BOYGfaIo
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) September 30, 2024
Are you considering benching this player? Would you replace a top-five pick, who has played for less than half a season as a professional in the NFL, with Joe Flacco? Flacco, now 39, had some solid moments last season while stepping in for Deshaun Watson in Cleveland. Moreover, we’ve witnessed Steichen’s ability to coach with such fluency that he made Gardner Minshew not just viable in 2023, but appealing enough for the Raiders to offer him a starter-lite contract this year.
Whether Richardson will develop into a great player remains uncertain. For every remarkable play, there are also some preventable blunders stemming from youth and inexperience. Even if he addresses these inconsistencies, staying healthy will be essential; his injury history is indeed a concern. What is clear, however, is that Richardson has shown enough promising play to warrant the entire Colts organization focusing on his development at this time.
This isn’t a situation similar to Young/Dalton, where the young quarterback has performed so poorly that he hinders the offense. Nor is it akin to Howell/Brissett, where a mid-round pick is merely given a chance to seize the role. This also isn’t a Tagovailoa/Fitzpatrick scenario, where there is evident division regarding the potential of the young QB. Pay attention to how the Colts discuss Richardson; they genuinely believe they might have the next Josh Allen in their midst.
Indeed, Steichen excels at crafting schemes for seasoned quarterbacks. Yes, Flacco is adept at giving Alec Pierce chances to make contested catches. Nevertheless, the future of the Colts lies with Richardson, and as long as they can keep him in good health, their prospects shine brighter than ever.
I’m looking forward to returning to this space in precisely five weeks when Jarrett Stidham propels the Broncos’ offense to perform in ways that Bo Nix never could.
Next Ben Stats
NFL Next Gen Stats provide unique and intriguing insights sourced from tracking chips and vast databases. Next Ben Stats, however, are usually figures I’ve invented. Both are featured below.
56.8%: This denotes Caleb Williams’ success rate for dropbacks over the last three weeks of play, which is the highest among all quarterbacks in the league.
Let’s be clear: Williams and the Bears have faced the Panthers, Rams, and Jaguars—three of the most underwhelming defenses in the NFL during this period. They managed to catch two of those games at home as well. Such schedules happen occasionally, and it’s essential to capitalize on them. The Bears have done just that, with each week showing incremental improvement in their operation, both in the huddle and at the line of scrimmage.
<img alt="" class="imageLoaded" src="https://a.espncdn.com/photo/2023/0104/
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I lack an exact metric for this, so I’ll just create one (after all, it is Next Ben Stats). Currently, Williams is leading the league in the total number of plays called, adjusted, or changed at the line of scrimmage. He has complete command of the offense.
Williams has improved his field vision, identifying trustworthy receivers, and understanding the limits of what plays he can execute. Since his debut, not only has his success rate increased, but so has the average separation of his targeted receivers. He is making the right decisions and steering clear of risky plays. This is how it appears when a rookie starts to find his rhythm.
Challenges will arise at some point. However, not next week during the Bears’ bye, nor in the following week when he faces the Commanders’ defense. That matchup will feature the first and second overall picks facing off. Be sure to note the date.
11: This is the number of times Lions backup offensive lineman Dan Skipper reported as eligible on Sunday against the Cowboys.
I cannot confirm whether this is a record for eligible offensive linemen snaps, but I am inclined to claim it is very close. Skipper previously attempted to report as eligible on what would have been a game-winning play for the Lions in Dallas last season, only for the officials to mishandle the situation, leading to a regrettable loss for Detroit.
Don’t fret if this slipped your mind, as the Lions certainly haven’t forgotten. Detroit took great pleasure in reminding both Dallas and the referees of last season’s misfortune. Skipper was utilized as a tight end on the game’s opening play (a 5-yard run) and was present for the kneel down before halftime, which was both overly generous and quite humorous. He and tackle Taylor Decker were also eligible during a second-quarter touchdown run, which is noteworthy since Decker was meant to be the eligible receiver on the failed two-point conversion attempt last season.
Referring back to that unsuccessful two-point conversion, the Lions attempted to revisit that moment against the Cowboys! They designed a play targeting Decker similar to the one that was invalidated by officials last season. (This time, Skipper accurately reported as an eligible receiver and lined up accordingly.) It’s hardly surprising that the Cowboys were somewhat attuned to the strategy by this point, and linebacker Damone Clark was among the best-prepared defenders I’ve seen for an offensive lineman’s red zone route.
.@Lions are trolling 😅 no one’s forgotten what happened with Taylor Decker against the Cowboys last season…
📺: #DETvsDAL on FOX
📱: pic.twitter.com/7DoNtSxJHE— NFL (@NFL) <a href="https
Pettiness can be enjoyable; merciless pettiness while leading by four touchdowns is even more delightful. Following the unsuccessful Decker target, the Lions attempted a different play to score a touchdown with an offensive lineman using a hook-and-ladder pass to right tackle Penei Sewell (which, rightly so, was nullified due to a procedural penalty, much to the visible frustration of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson). That was a genuine trick play! The Lions utilized it in their 37-9 victory against Dallas just for the fun of it. I genuinely admire their dedication and hope to emulate it.
3.9: This is the average yards per dropback for Deshaun Watson this season. Among 815 quarterbacking seasons since 2000, this ranks him 814th.
Only Akili Smith in 2000 recorded fewer passing yards per dropback (3.6) than Watson does now, and Smith is widely regarded as one of the biggest busts in NFL draft history. Not surprisingly, Smith from 2000 is also the sole quarterback to have produced touchdowns and first downs at a lesser rate than Watson in 2024. We haven’t encountered a starting quarterback who has performed this poorly in 23 years, and if Watson indeed continues as the Browns’ starter this season (a reality I am increasingly resigned to), we may witness one of the worst seasons in modern football history.
I have nothing positive to say about Watson’s performance. It has been subpar ever since he arrived in Cleveland, and each contract concession made by the Browns for Watson seems worse than the last. No clever schemes or personnel changes will rectify the fact that Watson currently shows no commitment to playing football at a standard level.
Mentioning 2000 Smith is crucial for another reason: to recall the 2003 drafting of Carson Palmer. Smith was so ineffective that he lost his job after the 2000 season, and after the Bengals dabbled with free-agent quarterbacks for a year or two, they successfully drafted Palmer, igniting a decade of offensive prowess and solid team performance. The NFL landscape can change rapidly. A franchise can experience the worst quarterback performance in league history, and three years later, find themselves with their franchise quarterback.
Releasing Watson completely would incur a staggering $172.7 million in dead money against the salary cap. This amount is more than double the $85 million in dead cap resulting from the Broncos’ release of Russell Wilson, which, at the time, was more than double the previous record. Such a financial hit appears devastating for a franchise, particularly as we remain uncertain about the potential replacement. However, if the Browns manage to secure a first-round quarterback in the 2025 draft, the significance of that $172.7 million could diminish swiftly. Until then, we face yet another week of witnessing what can only be described as historically poor football.
0: This is the level of interest defenses show in tackling Derrick Henry during the fourth quarter. This intriguing statistic was highlighted by Tej Seth of SumerSports earlier this week. Observe how Henry’s rushing success rate fluctuates throughout the quarters. As the game progresses, his performance improves.
Derrick Henry by quarter this season
