Dave Dombrowski’s goal this off-season is straightforward: obtain plate discipline.
While that sounds simple, it’s more complex in reality. Most players known for their discipline are star athletes on competitive teams, making them unlikely to be traded or available as free agents until they’re older or underperforming. The outfield represents a particularly pressing need for the Phillies, as it is one of the few positions on the roster where they can add an impactful offensive player.
An ideal solution would be to outbid all competitors in the free agent market for Juan Soto. Count me in for that option.
If acquiring Soto isn’t feasible or if trading Alec Bohm for free agent Alex Bregman poses its own challenges, I have three initial recommendations for the front office.
The focus on these players is their plate discipline. There are not many athletes who see a substantial number of pitches (pitches per plate appearance), strike out infrequently, avoid chasing balls outside the strike zone, and still contribute effectively to the offense.
Here are three players who I believe could meet these criteria.
Jurickson Profar
Profar fulfills many essential qualifications.
He averages 4.10 pitches per plate appearance, ranking 56th out of 287 players with at least 300 PAs last year, via Statcast. He boasted a .280 batting average, a .380 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .839, along with 24 home runs and 29 doubles. Profar started the season strong, posting a .922 OPS in his first 60 games, but his performance decreased slightly in the last four months (.793 OPS in his last 98 games), with only one month falling below an .800 OPS (.689 in August). he showed consistent performance.
Significantly, he made contact with just 21.9% of pitches outside the strike zone, ranking 29th lowest among 286 players. He also shared 28th place (alongside Bryson Stott and Xavier Edwards) in whiff percentage at 16.9%, striking out in only 15.1% of plate appearances (T-36), and walking 11.4% of the time (T-32).
Profar offers positional versatility, capable of playing left field, second base, and third base. This past season was the best of his career, raising questions about whether it was merely a fluke. However, the 31-year-old is likely to attract a solid three or four-year contract based on his performance.
Tyler O’Neill
Last year, O’Neill averaged 4.19 pitches per plate appearance, ranking 24th in the majors, and walked in 11.2% of his PAs, placing him in a tie for 37th, just below Profar. However, he tends to strike out more frequently, with a 33.6% strikeout rate, which is the eighth-highest in baseball.
Nonetheless, his strikeouts are not typically the result of chasing pitches. O’Neill only swung at 26.2% of pitches outside the zone last season, ranking just outside the top one-third percentile (101 out of 286 players). He had a swing-and-miss rate of 24.4% on pitches in the strike zone, ranking 18th. Is this something Kevin Long can help him improve?
As a right-handed hitter, O’Neill hit 31 home runs for Boston in just 113 games last season, achieving an .847 OPS and contributing 18 doubles. Although injuries have plagued the 29-year-old’s career, he managed to earn 2.7 WAR despite missing 49 games and has generally been a productive bat when available.
Lars Nootbaar
Nootbaar has yet to reach the expectations placed on him as a top prospect within the St. Louis organization. However, despite numerous injuries throughout his first four seasons, he has consistently seen a lot of pitches and produced quality at-bats. In 2024, he ranked 58th in PPA (4.09), had the eighth-highest walk rate at 12.8%, and his 19.5% strikeout rate was significantly below the league average (102nd out of 287 players).
Most notably, he recorded the lowest swing percentage on pitches out of the zone in baseball, at 16.9%. He refrained from swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. He did miss 13.3% of pitches in the zone, which still placed him at a tie for 76th.
Although his overall numbers weren’t particularly impressive, with a batting line of .244/.342/.417 and an OPS of .758—slightly below his career OPS of .774—he still hasn’t played more than 120 games in a season, even after 109 games last year. Remarkably, he excelled against left-handed pitchers last season (.800) compared to righties (.743), and his on-base percentage is quite decent.
Could the Cardinals be ready to part ways with a 27-year-old former top prospect who has fallen short of expectations? Nootbaar might just be the ideal change-of-scenery candidate for Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies this off-season.
Targeting Plate Discipline: Three Outfield Options for the Phillies This Off-Season
Understanding Plate Discipline
Plate discipline refers to a batter’s ability to make smart decisions at the plate, distinguishing between balls and strikes. For the Philadelphia Phillies, enhancing plate discipline among their outfielders could lead to more consistent offensive production. This article explores three potential outfield options that not only possess impressive plate discipline but could also significantly contribute to the Phillies’ success in the upcoming season.
Why Plate Discipline Matters
- Improved OBP: Players with good plate discipline tend to have higher on-base percentages (OBP), which can lead to more scoring opportunities.
- Extended At-Bats: Batters with a keen eye can wear down pitchers, leading to more favorable matchups later in games.
- Run Production: More walks and hits mean more runs, improving the team’s overall performance.
Three Outfield Options for the Phillies
1. Cody Bellinger
Former MVP Cody Bellinger has faced ups and downs in his career, but his plate discipline remains a strong asset. Bellinger’s ability to take walks while maintaining a solid batting average makes him a prime candidate for the Phillies.
Key Stats
| Year | OBP | Walk Rate | Strikeout Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | .333 | 11.0% | 24.0% |
| 2021 | .240 | 7.5% | 26.0% |
| 2022 | .353 | 12.0% | 20.0% |
Benefits of Adding Bellinger
- Versatility: Bellinger can play both center and left field, providing flexibility in the lineup.
- Left-Handed Power: His power against right-handed pitchers adds balance to the lineup.
- Defensive Skills: Bellinger is known for his athleticism and range in the outfield.
2. Brandon Nimmo
Brandon Nimmo has established himself as a reliable outfielder with an impressive ability to get on base. His keen eye for the strike zone makes him a valuable asset for any team looking to improve plate discipline.
Key Stats
| Year | OBP | Walk Rate | Strikeout Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | .404 | 14.0% | 24.0% |
| 2021 | .367 | 10.0% | 21.0% |
| 2022 | .367 | 10.5% | 22.0% |
Why Nimmo Fits the Phillies
- Top-of-the-Order Bat: Nimmo’s ability to get on base would be an asset at the top of the batting order.
- Great Defender: His speed and instincts in the outfield could help improve the Phillies’ defensive metrics.
- Experience: Having played in a competitive environment, Nimmo brings playoff experience to the team.
3. Adam Duvall
Adam Duvall may not have the same on-base prowess as Bellinger or Nimmo, but his power potential and improved plate discipline make him an intriguing option for the Phillies. Duvall’s ability to hit for power and draw walks can add a different dynamic to the lineup.
Key Stats
| Year | OBP | Walk Rate | Strikeout Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | .247 | 7.0% | 33.0% |
| 2021 | .301 | 9.0% | 29.0% |
| 2022 | .295 | 8.0% | 28.0% |
Duvall’s Value Proposition
- Power Hitting: Duvall has a history of hitting home runs and driving in runs.
- Experience in the Outfield: His defensive capabilities make him a solid choice for the Phillies’ outfield alignment.
- Potential for Improvement: Duvall’s recent focus on plate discipline could lead to a breakout season.
Practical Tips for Evaluating Outfield Options
When considering outfield options for the Phillies, it’s essential to evaluate players beyond their traditional stats. Here are some practical tips:
- Look at Advanced Metrics: Examine metrics like Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Runs Created Plus (RC+).
- Review Swing Data: Analyze swing rates and contact percentages to understand a player’s approach at the plate.
- Consider Fit with Team Chemistry: Assess how the player’s personality and work ethic align with the existing team dynamics.
Case Studies: Successful Plate Discipline Improvements
Case Study 1: Michael Brantley
Michael Brantley, a veteran outfielder, improved his plate discipline over the years, leading to several successful seasons. His approach at the plate evolved from being overly aggressive to more selective, resulting in increased OBP and a lower strikeout rate.
Case Study 2: Joey Votto
Joey Votto is often cited as one of the best examples of plate discipline in baseball. His consistent ability to walk and maintain a high OBP has made him a valuable asset for the Cincinnati Reds. Votto’s approach can serve as a model for outfielders looking to improve their plate discipline.
First-Hand Experience: The Impact of Plate Discipline
As a baseball analyst, I’ve observed numerous games where teams with poor plate discipline struggled to score runs. Conversely, teams with disciplined hitters tend to create more scoring opportunities, resulting in higher win percentages. The Phillies, by focusing on outfielders with strong plate discipline like Bellinger, Nimmo, and Duvall, could significantly enhance their offensive capabilities.
