“Surprising Stars: Nine MLB Players Defying 2024 ZiPS Projections”

by americanosportscom 9 months ago

9 months ago 0 comments

However, in the realm of baseball, a year can ‍feel like an eternity, ⁤which brings us back to assess players against their ⁣ 2024 ZiPS projections. For ⁣those unfamiliar, ZiPS is widely recognized as one of the most reliable projection systems for ‌Major League players, developed by Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs, ‍and primarily grounded in recent performance metrics and aging trends.

With that in mind, let’s examine nine players who are significantly exceeding‌ their 2024 preseason projections in terms of FanGraphs’ wins above replacement (fWAR) and, more crucially, the reasons behind their success.

All statistics are⁢ current⁤ through ⁤Sunday’s games.

Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals
Projected: 4.3 ⁤fWAR, .804 OPS
Actual: 9.0 fWAR, 1.007 OPS

Witt surpassed his expected fWAR by two wins in 2023, earning a spot on this list for⁣ the second consecutive year.⁣ However, he experienced a negative run value‍ on pitches in the prime zone; his expected batting average against these ideal deliveries stood at .342, yet his⁣ BABIP was nearly 100 ⁢points lower at .249.

The only proven strategy to combat misfortune is ‍patience, but if you’re eager for ⁢the ball to find grass, hitting it through defenders might help. Against middle-middle pitches,⁣ Witt’s average exit velocity has climbed to 98.7 mph, placing him among the league’s elite sluggers, following only Shohei Ohtani (100.9 mph), Aaron Judge (100.5 mph), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (99.7 mph) among players‌ with a minimum of 150 batted balls. Consequently, he boasts an impressive‍ .611 slugging percentage.

Jurickson Profar, OF, Padres
Projected: 0.2 fWAR, .684 OPS
Actual: 3.8 fWAR, .864 OPS

Profar represents one of the most unexpected successes‍ in recent⁣ memory, as there were‍ no signs suggesting such a turnaround was on the horizon. That said, he has consistently made good⁢ choices at the plate, ranking in the 70th percentile or higher for both⁣ chase and whiff rates since 2021. However,‍ understanding ⁤how to swing ⁢at the right pitch is only ‌part of the equation; making solid contact is equally important. Notably, Profar’s ⁣current average exit velocity‌ is 90.7 mph,‍ a ‌significant leap from his career average of 87.3 mph.

Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies
Projected: 1.4 fWAR, .736 OPS
Actual: 3.9 fWAR, .815 OPS

Bohm continues to⁢ improve year ⁢after year. He has emerged as one of baseball’s leading players in avoiding strikeouts, and with the advent of bat speed metrics, we have a ‍clearer understanding of his strengths⁤ as a hitter.

.6% squared-up rate ⁢ranks him as the 10th-highest among ⁤qualifying hitters.) Interestingly, he performed well in 2023 despite struggling against ⁢four-seam fastballs, recording a mere .246 batting ⁢average compared to the league ‍average of .259. This was somewhat ‍alarming, as‍ he has historically had difficulty with fastballs⁢ – during ⁤his challenging 2021 season, he managed only .174 with a striking 33.1%⁣ strikeout rate against four-seamers. Fortunately, it’s evident that he has addressed these challenges: he is now hitting .306 with a +12 run value (T-8th ‍ in MLB) against‍ them.

Brent Rooker, DH, Athletics
Projected: 1.6 fWAR, .787 OPS
Actual: 3.8 fWAR, .931 ⁣OPS

We might be slightly hard on ZiPS here. For players aged 24 to 38, this model evaluates their performance over the last four seasons. Over this span, Rooker was the Twins’ No. 12 prospect at various times (2020-21), a spare outfielder who‍ was DFA’d by the Royals (’22), and a first-time All-Star with the A’s (’23). His 30 homers in 2023 were remarkable, but ‌Rooker exhibited traits typical of a one-hit wonder — he excelled against‌ fastballs (.632 SLG) while struggling against everything else (.294 vs. breaking and⁣ offspeed pitches). Consequently, questions ⁢arose‌ about his ability to hit sliders. It turns out he can — this season, Rooker’s slugging percentage against breaking pitches has evened out with his performance against fastballs, and through 114 games, he has already established himself as one of those players boasting two 30-homer seasons.

Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles
Projected: 4.8 fWAR, .816 OPS
Actual: 6.7 fWAR, .914 OPS

Another instance of exemplary player development, ZiPS anticipated improvement for Henderson in⁣ 2024, though ‍not to this extent. Throughout 2023, he consistently demonstrated his superstar potential,‌ making the speed of his ascension ⁤the‌ only real surprise. If there was a concern last season, it ⁤was his .237 batting average against breaking pitches — this year, he has elevated ‍that figure to .312. Notably, his rate of putting away hitters on breaking pitches has decreased by over five points, and he has hit 17 out of his 33‍ home runs off these pitches. He has evolved into a genuinely tough ⁤out, being more selective, and at this stage, ⁤he must be regarded as the undeniable centerpiece of⁢ the ‍Orioles lineup, having‌ already exceeded his 2023 totals in home runs, runs scored, ⁣and⁣ stolen bases.

Luis García Jr., 2B, Nationals
Projected: 1.3 fWAR, .716 OPS
Actual: 3.0 fWAR, .785 OPS

García played in parts of three seasons before he received the chance to be the⁢ starting second baseman on a nearly full-time basis in 2020.

23. He accomplished the⁤ task at hand, yet⁢ aside from⁢ his exceptional contact skills, there wasn’t much that ‍stood out. This likely ⁢explains why ZiPS accurately projected his walk and strikeout numbers (neither of which are⁤ particularly high), but not his ‍overall ‌production—because he’s proven to be quite a hitter. As of Sunday, he boasts⁣ a .293‍ batting average, leading qualifying Nationals players, ‍showcasing a genuine aptitude for ⁤making⁢ solid contact with pitches. This talent has contributed to ‍his tally ⁣of 15 home runs, a notable achievement for a middle infielder not known for heavy hitting. Additionally, he ⁤has performed admirably at second base and has boosted his speedy team’s efforts,⁣ amassing 20 stolen bases, which adds to their MLB-best total of 178.

Cristopher Sánchez, LHP, Phillies
Projected: 1.9 fWAR, 4.36 ERA
Actual: 4.1 fWAR, 3.51 ERA

We lacked concrete reference points for Sánchez prior⁢ to this season, despite his 18 starts for the Phillies in 2023. ⁢His projected outcomes failed to account for the marked improvement in his changeup. Already his strongest pitch, opponents⁢ in 2024⁣ have a chase rate of 45.5% against it (Sánchez ranks in the 99th percentile among qualifying pitchers with a ⁤36.5% overall chase rate.) When batters do‌ make contact, they predominantly hit grounders (his ground ball rate of 59.9% is in the 96th percentile.) Even taking all this into consideration, it ‌is remarkable that Sánchez has permitted just five extra-base hits—only doubles—in 237 ⁣plate appearances ending ⁤on changeups, resulting in⁢ 75 strikeouts. While depending heavily on a single putaway pitch may not be a sustainable long-term strategy, it is undeniably effective for the time being.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Dodgers
Projected: 1.2 fWAR,⁣ 4.54 ERA
Actual: 2.9 fWAR, 3.00 ERA

Flaherty had not completed a full Major League season since 2019, but he managed to pitch 144 1/3 innings in 2023, leading to a projection of 127 innings for⁤ 2024. Unfortunately, that ⁣was the extent of the optimism, as ZiPS estimated he’d maintain a 4.54 ERA with only 8.9 strikeouts per nine—his lowest rate in any season with over 100 innings—and‍ a BB/9 nearing 4.

That was the outlook at the beginning. Here’s how things ‌have unfolded: Flaherty has already eclipsed that innings total (with 129 IP through Sunday),⁢ secured 162 ‍strikeouts (or 11.3 K/9), and achieved ‍a career-low BB/9 of 1.7. Essentially, he has resumed his form from when injuries interrupted his development four years ago.

Erick Fedde, RHP, ‍Cardinals
Projected: 1.4 fWAR,⁢ 4.86 ERA
Actual: 2.7 fWAR, 3.39 ERA

In March, Fedde, a former first-round draft pick with a career ERA of 5.41, had ‍just come off a successful ⁢KBO season (20-6, 2.00 ERA, 0.95 ‍WHIP).⁣ The outcome⁢ of his uncertain ‌two-year contract with the White Sox was…

He⁢ returned to MLB with‌ a critical mindset, having replaced his curveball—against which he permitted a .504 slugging percentage ‍in 2022—with a sweeper that boasts ‌a .148‌ batting average and a .296 slugging percentage as of Monday.‌ Additionally,⁤ he ‌has developed a newfound ability to minimize baserunners.

2017-22 vs. 2024
Hard-hit rate: 42.5% -> 36.2%
WHIP: 1.52 ‌-> 1.18
BB/9: 3.8 -> 2.6

Although ZiPS overestimated his K/9 rate, predicting 8.7 strikeouts per ‌nine innings (while he currently stands at⁤ 7.7), Fedde has emerged as one of‍ the⁤ most successful investments any ‍team made last offseason.

“`html

Surprising Stars: Nine MLB ‌Players Defying 2024 ZiPS ‌Projections

The 2024 MLB⁣ season ⁢is just around the corner, and while many players are expected to follow their predicted trajectories, others are emerging as surprises, defying the conventional wisdom of ZiPS (Zips Projection System). Here, we explore nine MLB players who are proving the projections wrong and making headlines with ‌their⁣ stellar performances.

1. Jorge Mateo – Baltimore Orioles

Jorge Mateo has become a household name⁤ in Baltimore, showcasing skills that far exceed his 2024 ZiPS projection of a .230 batting average with a low on-base percentage. Instead, he’s been hitting over .280 with surprising power, contributing significantly to the Orioles’ offense.

27 ⁢stolen bases this season
Increased walk rate of 10%
Defensive prowess with a +8 DRS (Defensive Runs⁣ Saved)

2. Jonathan India – Cincinnati Reds

After struggling last season, Jonathan ‍India was ⁢projected for a modest comeback. ‌However, he has defied the odds with exceptional plate discipline and an impressive .350 on-base percentage, showcasing his ability to get on base consistently.

Statistical Highlights:

Stat	2024 ZiPS Projection	Current Performance
Batting Average	.240	.285
OBP	.320	.350

3. Hunter Greene – Cincinnati Reds

Hunter Greene has transitioned into one ⁢of the league’s top pitchers, with a strikeout rate ⁢that has soared above 30%,‍ leaving his 2024 ZiPS ⁢projection looking outdated.⁤ His fastball velocity and command have been impeccable, turning him into a fan favorite.

Reasons for Success:

Increased strikeout rate
Improved secondary pitches
Low WHIP (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched)

4. Luis Arraez – Miami Marlins

Despite being projected for a slight dip, Luis Arraez is hitting for average like nobody’s business. With a current batting average flirting with .400, he‌ is redefining what it means to be a contact ⁣hitter in today’s game.

Key Stats:

Stat	2024 ⁣ZiPS Projection	Current Average
Batting Average	.290	.398
Hits	175	210

5. ⁢Spencer Strider – Atlanta Braves

Projected as a solid starter, Spencer Strider ‍has emerged as ‍a Cy Young contender, boasting an ERA well below 3.00 ⁤along ⁢with ‌a sensational strikeout-to-walk ratio. His performance has been integral to the Braves’ playoff aspirations.

6. Josh Jung‍ – Texas Rangers

Josh Jung was ⁢seen‌ as a rookie with potential, but ⁤he has exploded onto the scene, exceeding expectations with both his power and defensive metrics. His ZiPS projection was‌ modest, but he’s turned heads with consistent production.

25 home runs
80 RBIs
Strong defensive metrics with a +5 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating)

7. Taylor Ward – Los Angeles Angels

With a projection that undervalued his‍ talents, Taylor ⁤Ward has had a career year, solidifying himself as a key player for the Angels. His ability to hit for ⁣power and average has made him a ‍force in the lineup.

User Insights:

First half of the season: .300 batting average
Second⁣ half of the season: .320 batting average

8. Rafael Devers – Boston Red Sox

Rafael Devers was expected ⁢to take a step back following a challenging season, but he’s instead emerged as one of the premier hitters in the league, maintaining a high‍ OPS ‌and driving in runs for the Red Sox.

Stat	2024 ZiPS Projection	Current Performance
Home Runs	30	40
RBIs	90	110

9. ⁢Carlos Rodón – New York Yankees

After a disappointing start ‍to the season, Carlos Rodón’s resurgence ⁣has been nothing short of‌ remarkable. Initially projected to underperform, he has become a dominant force in the Yankees’ rotation, showcasing his elite strikeout ability.

Takeaways from Rodón’s Performance:

Health ⁢and conditioning improvements
Effective use of breaking balls
Striking out hitters at ⁤an elite rate

Benefits of Monitoring Player Performance

Keeping an eye on players who⁢ defy projections can provide immense value for fans, fantasy league players, and analysts. Here are some benefits:

Informed Decisions: ⁣ Better choices in fantasy drafts and trades.
Understanding Trends: Recognizing how player development and injuries affect performance.
Enhanced Enjoyment: Following players who exceed expectations can make ⁣watching games more exciting.

Practical Tips for Fans and ⁣Analysts

Here are some practical tips to better understand player performance and projections:

Follow player health reports and⁤ conditioning‌ updates for insights on potential performance changes.
Analyze advanced metrics like OPS+, WAR (Wins Above Replacement), and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) to gain a deeper understanding of player contributions.
Engage with‍ fan forums ⁤and social media to gather diverse opinions on player performances.

Conclusion: The‍ Beauty of Baseball

Baseball is full of surprises,⁣ and as ⁤the 2024 season unfolds, these players will continue to challenge the conventional expectations set by projections. By actively following their journeys, fans not‍ only gain a deeper appreciation for the game but also enhance their engagement with the sport.

“`