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Andre Snellings, ESPN
Almost exactly a year ago today, I penned an article that sparked some debate – suggesting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might already be worthy of MVP contention. Backed by historical analysis of scoring guards, I argued that indicators pointed towards SGA being MVP material, even if it might take a season or two for him to actually win.
How things have changed.
Gilgeous-Alexander finished second in last year’s MVP race, narrowly edged out by Nikola Jokic’s stellar performance which secured his third MVP award in four seasons. Currently, the MVP race appears to be a dead heat between these two. According to ESPN BET, Jokic is favored to win at +230, with SGA closely trailing at +275.
Should these two be the only contenders for this season’s MVP award? Can SGA finally break through and claim his first?
Can SGA — or anyone — Catch the Joker?
Jokic is playing at a video game level right now. He leads the NBA in both rebounds per game (13.7 RPG) and assists per game (11.7 APG), ranking fourth in scoring at 29.7 PPG. Averaging a 30/14/12 triple-double, he’s on track to become the first player in NBA history to achieve this coveted triple crown. Only Wilt Chamberlain, in 1968, has ever led the league in total points, assists, and rebounds. No one has ever achieved all three, *on a per-game basis*. If Jokic accomplishes this feat, and the Nuggets secure a winning record, I believe he’d clinch his fourth MVP purely on the sheer impact he’s having.
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It’s difficult to imagine Jokic maintaining this pace throughout the season, and even a slight dip could create an opportunity for Gilgeous-Alexander. While SGA’s scoring is slightly down from the past two seasons at 27.8 PPG, he remains efficient, shooting 50% from the field and nearly 90% from the line. Additionally, he’s on track for career bests in both assists (6.5 APG) and rebounds (5.5 RPG).
Statistically, SGA simply can’t match Jokic’s average 30-point triple-double. Moreover, Jokic is setting an absurd pace in impact statistics, sporting a +12.3 on/off court +/- per 100 possessions on a Nuggets team with a +2.9 net differential for the season. The Nuggets have been an astounding 37.4 points better per 100 possessions with Jokic on the court compared to off the court this season, and they’re only a game behind the Thunder in the loss column.
If the season ended today, Jokic would undeniably be the MVP. However, there are still five months left in this marathon race, providing ample time for SGA to catch up.
With Chet Holmgren sidelined due to injury for the season, SGA will shoulder a heavier offensive load for the Thunder, potentially bolstering his MVP credentials. After all, Holmgren’s impressive start strongly suggested he could lead Oklahoma City alongside SGA towards contention. If he steps up in this new dynamic and elevates the team, both his statistical output and narrative standing within the MVP conversation would undoubtedly improve.
Which other players have a shot at MVP?
At present, ten players merit consideration for the MVP award. Behind Jokic and SGA, Jayson Tatum (+550), Luka Doncic (+750), and Anthony Edwards (+1000) possess the shortest odds. Anthony Davis (+1800), Giannis Antetokounmpo (+3300), Donovan Mitchell (+5000), Jalen Brunson (+5000), and Stephen Curry (+5000) constitute the remaining contenders.
Two of these latter players are particularly intriguing this season: Mitchell and Curry. Both command their respective franchises, leading the undefeated Cavaliers and the Western Conference-leading Warriors (tied with the Suns and Thunder). Neither team was anticipated to be top contenders this year, so if either or both maintain their current trajectory, it would undoubtedly propel their captains into serious MVP contention. This, of course, would significantly improve their long shot odds currently hovering around 50-to-1.
Stephen Curry has led the Warriors to one of the best records in the NBA. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Tatum grappled with a similar “best player on the best team” argument last season. However, with Jaylen Brown as a formidable supporting cast member and the Celtics boasting favored status this year, Tatum’s MVP candidacy diminishes unless Boston achieves an improbable 70-win surge akin to the 2015-16 Warriors or the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls—both culminating in MVP titles for Curry and Michael Jordan respectively. Those feats seem distant now, considering Boston has already endured three losses in their first twelve games, currently trailing Mitchell’s Cavaliers by three games.
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Due to Tatum’s inability to match Jokic’s statistical prowess and lacking the underdog narrative that often fuels MVP narratives, his victory seems unlikely without a 70-win campaign. Furthermore, betting on him at this point holds little value given his current position.
With reigning MVP Joel Embiid sidelined by injury and publicly stating his reluctance to participate in games primarily for statistical gains to compete for postseason accolades, Doncic and Antetokounmpo have historically demonstrated the statistical capacity rivaling Jokic’s. However, both the Mavericks and Bucks currently flounder below .500. To realistically contend with Jokic, they would require a confluence of statistical dominance and significantly greater team success than their Denver counterparts.
Edwards and Brunson share similarities with Mitchell and Curry in terms of potential MVP contention. Neither player is likely to attain Jokic’s statistical dominance; instead, both rely heavily on exceptional and unexpected team performance. Both the Timberwolves and Knicks have promising starts as contenders within their respective conferences but currently hover around .500, trailing their conference leaders by several games.
Anthony Davis presents a unique case as the final contender. He is building an early MVP argument that encapsulates the strengths of other non-Jokic contenders. Given that the Lakers were not anticipated to contend this season and traditionally belong to LeBron James’ domain, Davis leading the charge while spearheading a strong Lakers campaign could propel him into MVP discourse. He currently outpaces Jokic’s scoring pace at 31.2 PPG, registers double-digit performances regularly, and belongs in the elite class of defensive players.
A Davis candidacy centered on achieving a 30-point double-double average with Defensive Player of the Year caliber defense leading the league’s prestigious franchise amidst unforeseen expectations—that narrative certainly holds potential should it persist into spring. However, Davis’ Achilles heel has always been his susceptibility to injury, and he is currently sidelined due to foot and eye issues. Maintaining his form throughout the season would be crucial for him to remain a viable MVP contender.
2023-24 NBA MVP Odds: Is Jokic Still the Favorite?
The 2023-24 NBA season is upon us, and with it comes the burning question: who will claim the coveted MVP award? While Nikola Jokic enters the year as a frontrunner, other contenders are emerging.
Jokic’s Case Remains Strong
After another dominant season where he led the Denver Nuggets to their first championship, Jokic appears poised for another MVP run. He demonstrated remarkable consistency, averaging a triple-double and guiding his team through tough competition. His efficiency and impact on both ends of the court make him a legitimate contender once again. Even at +230 odds, Jokic presents significant value.
Gilgeous-Alexander: The Underdog Story
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is quickly rising through the ranks, showcasing his immense talent and scoring prowess with the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, for him to seriously challenge Jokic’s dominance, he would need to carry a heavier load and lead his team to success while Chet Holmgren recovers from injury.
Davis: A Tale of Talent and Uncertainty
Anthony Davis has consistently displayed immense potential when healthy, making him an intriguing candidate at +1800 odds. However, durability concerns and the Lakers’ overall trajectory this season keep him as a question mark.
Longshot Contenders: Mitchell and Curry
For longshot plays, look no further than Donovan Mitchell and Steph Curry at a compelling 50-1. Both lead unexpectedly strong contenders with the ability to surprise the league and put up MVP-caliber performances throughout the year.
Bottom Line
While Jokic currently possesses the strongest case for MVP, other talented players like Gilgeous-Alexander, Davis, Mitchell, and Curry offer intriguing value at their respective odds. The race for the prestigious award is wide open, promising an exciting and unpredictable season.
