After five months of gradual progress, baseball is poised to enter a fast-paced and intense phase. With September approaching, the spirited race toward the postseason is about to kick off.
Unless, of course, it has already begun, and we simply overlooked it.
According to the oddsmakers at FanGraphs, the playoff landscape appears largely predetermined at this stage.
As of Thursday’s games, FanGraphs revealed that six teams in the American League possess better than a 74 percent probability of clinching a playoff spot, while only one additional team boasts even a 20 percent chance. The National League’s outlook is even more distinct, with five teams enjoying at least a 90 percent probability of making it, another team slightly below 75 percent, and a solitary serious contender holding just a 25.3 percent chance.
All remaining NL teams feature playoff odds in the single digits, a stark contrast to August 1, when 19 different teams had at least an 11 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, and the defending champion Texas Rangers held a 9.4 percent chance.
The composition of the playoff field, it seems, may rely more on the outcomes from the preceding five weeks than on what transpires in the upcoming five.
American League playoff odds
| Team | 3 months ago | All-Star Game | Deadline | 2 weeks ago | Today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The races in the AL East and AL Central remain competitive, with the NL West also featuring tight contests. However, the teams involved largely have a favorable position for the wild card and may not need to claim a division title to secure a spot in October.
In the American League, the New York Yankees (99.4 percent chance of postseason qualification), Baltimore Orioles (97.8 percent), and Cleveland Guardians (92.5 percent) appear to be virtual locks for the playoffs. Additionally, the Houston Astros (90.3 percent) and Minnesota Twins (87.7 percent) are considered safe bets for the postseason. The Kansas City Royals currently occupy the final wild card position, boasting a 75.1 percent chance of maintaining it.
In contrast, the Boston Red Sox (39.1 percent) are the only other team genuinely contending for a wild card slot. The Seattle Mariners have seen their chances decline to 12.6 percent, while the Tampa Bay Rays, who generated some excitement in July, have dwindled to a 4 percent likelihood of making the playoffs.
Looking at the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers (100 percent), Philadelphia Phillies (99.5 percent), and Milwaukee Brewers (99.3 percent) have nearly locked in their postseason spots. Furthermore, the San Diego Padres (95.1 percent) and Arizona Diamondbacks (92 percent), both performing well since the All-Star break, find themselves in strong contention to join them.
Though the preseason favorites Atlanta Braves have faced numerous injuries, they still maintain a solid 74.6 percent chance of clinching the final wild card spot. The main challengers are the New York Mets, whose playoff probabilities have sunk to 25.5 percent after peaking above 50 percent in late July. No other National League teams are in double digits in playoff odds, with the San Francisco Giants (7 percent) being the only other franchise above a 3 percent chance.
National League playoff odds
| Team | 3 months ago | All-Star Game | Deadline | 2 weeks ago | Today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The clarity began to surface around the All-Star break. Since this pivotal point, the leading teams have been the Diamondbacks (23-8), Padres (22-7), Dodgers (20-11), Royals (19-11), Astros (18-12), and Brewers (18-11). These six have significantly influenced the outlook for nearly every undecided playoff position.
In the AL West, the Astros have distanced themselves from the Mariners. At the break, their records were nearly identical, but since then, the Mariners have struggled, posting a losing record after the trade deadline, even after making notable acquisitions (the underperforming Oakland A’s have outperformed them this August).
The AL wild card race has essentially secured one spot for the second-place team in the East, which is likely to become a wild card. Meanwhile, the Royals and Twins currently hold the other two wild card spots, both sitting 3 1/2 games ahead of the Red Sox and at least six games clear of the other contenders. Although their lead isn’t unassailable, a Red Sox blog has analyzed the possibilities for the team to close this gap.
The Twins are on pace for a 90/91 win season. To reach 92 wins, they must finish 25-11.
If they go 5-5 against AZ/BAL/NYY, they’ll need to achieve a 20-6 record against the remaining teams.
A successful 10-2 run in the upcoming games is crucial for their chances. <a href="" rel="nofollow noop
“`— Chris Hatfield (@SPChrisHatfield) August 22, 2024
In the National League, the Brewers have created a significant gap between themselves and the other teams in the Central division. As of July 13 — the weekend prior to the All-Star Game — the Cardinals were just 3 1/2 games behind first place, and every team in the division had at least an 8 percent chance of making the playoffs. Currently, the Brewers stand as the sole team above .500, while the remaining teams are struggling, with none boasting even a 3 percent chance of postseason play.
In the NL West, the Giants have performed better than expected since the break (18-14), yet they find it challenging to keep up with the surging Padres and Diamondbacks. Each of these teams may have caught up to the heavily favored Dodgers if the latter hadn’t also been experiencing a winning streak. One team will emerge as the division champion, while the other two will likely have strong chances to advance as wild cards. FanGraphs suggests that the Padres and Diamondbacks have playoff odds comparable to those of the Guardians, one of the most successful teams in baseball, with an unmistakable positive atmosphere.
As the Phillies dominate the NL East, the only other somewhat contested spot in the National League is the final wild card, currently occupied by the struggling Braves. They have recently placed Austin Riley on the injured list, joining Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Ozzie Albies. If the Mets can regain their July form, they might close the gap and mount a serious challenge to dethrone the preseason favorites for a playoff position.
Similarly, the Red Sox could potentially find their rhythm and displace one of the frontrunners from the AL Central, sneaking into the postseason. Clearly, there remains plenty at stake as we enter the next five weeks.
Ultimately, when the playoff teams are finalized, we may realize that the true race to October was effectively concluded before September even began.
(Top photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
September Surge: How the MLB Playoff Picture Solidified Before the Final Stretch
The Importance of September in Major League Baseball
September is a pivotal month in Major League Baseball (MLB), often referred to as the ”September Surge.” It is during this final stretch of the regular season that teams make critical moves, both on and off the field, shaping the playoff landscape. With the postseason just around the corner, the stakes are higher than ever. This article explores how the MLB playoff picture solidified in September, highlighting key performances, player stats, and emerging trends that impacted team standings.
Key Performances That Shaped the Playoff Picture
As teams entered September, several standout performances stood out:
- Pitching Dominance: Ace pitchers frequently take the mound during this month, showcasing their skills to help secure wins. For example, pitchers with low ERA (Earned Run Average) often become the backbone of their teams.
- Offensive Firepower: Teams that hit home runs and drive in runs have a significant advantage. Players who excel in September often see their teams clinch playoff spots.
- Rookie Contributions: Emerging stars can change the course of a season, as rookies often step up under pressure, providing valuable contributions.
September Standings: A Snapshot
To understand the impact of September on the playoff race, let’s take a look at the standings before the final stretch. Below is a simplified table showing the key teams and their positions in the playoff race.
| Team | Wins | Losses | Win Percentage | Current Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 93 | 52 | .642 | W5 |
| New York Yankees | 89 | 56 | .614 | L2 |
| Chicago White Sox | 85 | 60 | .586 | W3 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 83 | 62 | .572 | L1 |
| San Diego Padres | 81 | 64 | .558 | W4 |
This snapshot illustrates how competitive the race is, with teams closely vying for playoff positions.
Emerging Trends and Strategies
As teams prepared for the postseason, several trends became apparent during September:
1. Bullpen Utilization
Teams increasingly leaned on their bullpens, often leading to strategic decisions that could make or break a game’s outcome. Effective use of closers and middle relievers became essential, as a strong bullpen can hold leads and secure victories.
2. Advanced Analytics
Front offices utilized advanced analytics to evaluate player performance more effectively. This data-driven approach allowed teams to make informed decisions regarding player matchups and in-game strategies, giving them a competitive edge.
3. Resting Star Players
With the postseason in sight, managers began to strategically rest their star players. This tactic aimed to prevent injuries while keeping players fresh for crucial playoff games. Balancing rest and game time became a critical aspect of end-of-season management.
Player Spotlights: Stars of September
Several players emerged as pivotal figures in September, dramatically influencing their teams’ fortunes:
Juan Soto – San Diego Padres
Juan Soto played an instrumental role for the Padres, showcasing a powerful batting display. His ability to get on base and drive in runs helped the Padres maintain their postseason aspirations.
Gerrit Cole – New York Yankees
Gerrit Cole’s performances in September illustrated his status as an ace. His ability to strike out batters and pitch deep into games provided the Yankees with vital wins during the final stretch.
Randy Arozarena – Tampa Bay Rays
Randy Arozarena’s clutch hitting in critical moments made him a fan favorite. His knack for delivering in high-pressure situations helped the Rays stay competitive in a tight race for the playoffs.
Practical Tips for Teams in the Final Stretch
For teams looking to navigate the crucial month of September effectively, here are some practical tips:
- **Monitor Player Health:** Keeping an eye on player fatigue and injuries can make a significant difference. Teams should utilize sports science to assess player readiness.
- **Evaluate Matchups:** Analytics can guide decisions on which pitchers to start against specific lineups, maximizing the chances of success.
– **Encourage Team Chemistry:** Building a strong team dynamic can boost morale and enhance performance under pressure.
Case Studies: Teams That Excelled in September
Examining teams that successfully navigated September can provide insights into effective strategies:
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers exemplified how a consistent lineup and strong pitching could lead to success. Their ability to maintain a high win percentage and dominate opponents showcased effective management and player performance.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox capitalized on their offensive capabilities, often outperforming expectations. Their ability to deliver crucial runs in late-game situations was key to their standing.
First-Hand Experience: A Fan’s Perspective
As a lifelong baseball fan, witnessing the September Surge is always exhilarating. The tension builds with each game, and every pitch feels significant. The atmosphere in stadiums becomes electric, as fans rally behind their teams, hoping to clinch a playoff spot. This month serves as a reminder of why I love baseball—the unpredictability, the drama, and the sheer joy of watching my favorite players shine when it matters most.
Looking Ahead: The Road to October
As teams solidify their playoff positions in September, the anticipation for October intensifies. The lessons learned during this month will prove invaluable as teams gear up for the postseason. Whether through strategic game management, clutch performances, or leveraging advanced analytics, the groundwork laid in September sets the stage for October’s excitement.
With the MLB playoff picture solidified, fans and teams alike are reminded that the thrill of baseball continues to evolve, making every September Surge a memorable experience.
