Roki Sasaki burst onto the scene in Japan as a 19-year-old in 2021, posting a 1.84 ERA over 16 starts. He bounded onto the world stage when he joined a star-studded Japanese rotation that included Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Now it looks like he’ll get the chance to join them in the Major Leagues in 2025.
While teams will try to position themselves to be the best suitor for the right-hander, Sasaki will not be making his choice solely based on up-front money. Like Ohtani in 2017, because he’s under 25, his signing is subject to international bonus pool rules and will count against a team’s international bonus pool. So all 30 teams are limited in what they can offer.
Beyond the eye-popping numbers (2.02 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 6.0 H/9 over four seasons), what exactly will teams entering the Sasaki sweepstakes be vying for? Let’s take a deeper look:
The scouting report
The 6-foot-2 Sasaki will pitch all of the 2025 season at age 23 and is more than three years younger than Yamamoto, around the same age as Ohtani was when he made his big league debut. He’s been scouted continuously since he made his NPB debut in 2021 and especially since his World Baseball Classic coming-out party, with international scouting departments wanting to make sure they were ready when the right-hander was posted.
“He’s as good as advertised,” one international scouting director said. “He has an ideal projectable, lean and athletic frame. He has excellent arm action and delivery, with three plus power pitches with control over command. He has No. 1 upside.”
Throwing out that “No. 1” label is not something scouts do freely, but that director was not the only one to do so.
“In my opinion, he’s a top-end starter,” another director said. “I wouldn’t say he’s Ohtani, but from a pitching standpoint, it’s very comparative. I’ve been seeing him since he was 19, and saw him on the national team. It’s an explosive arm.”
“He reminds me of Noah Syndergaard when he was fresh,” a third international scout said.
Fastball
It’s at least a 70 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, and depending on when you saw it, it might get the rarely spotted 80. It’s been up to 102 mph in the past and averaged 98.8 mph (96-100 more often than not) in ’23 with some armside run. In 2024, it averaged 96.8 mph (95-99 most of the time). Some evaluators said it was a little straighter than the previous year, perhaps a reason why it missed fewer bats (13.1 percent whiff rate vs. 24.0 pct in ’23), but as long as there are no lasting injury concerns, this isn’t too much of a worry.
Splitter
This is the “national pitch” according to James Dykstra, a former White Sox draftee who had as good a view of it as anyone last year while pitching for the Chibo Latte Marines alongside Sasaki.
Dykstra came out of the San Diego area high school powerhouse Rancho Bernardo High School and was drafted three times, eventually joining the White Sox as a sixth-rounder in 2013. He reached Triple-A and spent time in Mexico and indy ball before heading to Japan to pitch for the Marines this past season.
Arriving in Japan armed with a splitter of his own, Dykstra couldn’t wait to see Sasaki’s up close after seeing how filthy it was during the World Baseball Classic.
“I stood behind the catcher in his bullpen early in Spring Training and said ‘Oh my!’” Dykstra said. “I knew how good it was in the World Baseball Classic and it even exceeded my expectations. It’s probably one of the best splitters I’ve ever seen.”
The data backs up his eyewitness report. Throwing the pitch in the 88-90 mph range, Sasaki kills spin with it, and it comes out of his hand looking like his heater until it falls off the table. It produced an absurd 57.1 percent whiff rate in ’24. The Major League average whiff rate on the splitter this past season was 34.5 percent. Sasaki would have placed second among all big league pitchers in this category with a minimum of 100 swings on splitters:
Fernando Cruz (CIN): 59.3%
Roki Sasaki (NPB): 57.1%
Mark Leiter Jr. (NYY): 56.5%
Justin Martinez (AZ): 54.0%
Reed Garrett (NYM): 51.1%
Dykstra had to hearken back to his days with Chicago to remember the last time he was so impressed with a secondary offering.
“The only other time I’ve been in a bullpen and was mind-blown, I was with the White Sox and I watched a Chris Sale slider from behind the catcher,” he said.
Slider
This is Sasaki’s “third” pitch but some scouts grade it out as above-average, if not plus. Even though it also was down a tick or two this past season, Sasaki still missed bats with it at a 40.7 percent rate, throwing it in the 83-85 mph range. In ’23, his breaking ball elicited a whiff rate of 48.6 percent and was typically an upper-80s offering, more consistently getting plus grades.
Conclusion
While teams may have questions about Sasaki’s small downtick in velocity, it certainly won’t keep any team from being interested. He is, after all, a starter who finished last season with a 2.35 ERA, 10.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 rates at age 22.
It’s agreed that once posted, Sasaki would become the top international prospect in his class, whether it’s ’24 or 2025. As one scout pointed out, he’s much more of a sure thing compared
To the teenagers currently on the 2025 Top 50 international prospects list, someone poised to step into a major league rotation, perhaps even lead it, on Opening Day 2025, could be worth millions.
How much would such a prodigious pitcher command on the open market if he weren’t subject to international bonus pool spending rules? This question sparked curiosity among those in the scouting world.
“A lot,” one international scouting director stated.
Refusing to quantify “a lot,” the director prompted another scouting executive to offer some parameters, keeping Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers in mind.
“I think it would be $275-300 million if he was on the open market for 10 years – that’s what I’d project,” the executive said. “The sky is the limit with this guy.”
Dykstra, among others, echoes this sentiment.
“His talent is well known and practically unmatched,” he said, adding that Sasaki is a phenomenal teammate who diligently works on both his English skills and his pitching prowess. “I came back from watching that bullpen and realized, ‘This might be one of the greatest pitchers I’ve ever seen live.'”
“Every appearance he made on the mound became progressively more impressive. I can’t recall anyone with this much raw talent.”
