• Trevor Lawrence remains the No. 1 overall pick: Since drafting Lawrence, the Jaguars have not achieved the anticipated success, but much of that cannot be attributed to him.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown breaks into the top 10: The fourth-round selection has ranked as a top-five receiver based on PFF grading over the past two years.
• Gain an advantage with a PFF+ subscription: Enjoy complete access to all our in-season fantasy resources, which include weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer, and more. Sign up today!
Estimated reading time: 12 minutes
Now, three years post the 2021 NFL draft, we are presented with numerous highlights, surprises, and narratives that invite in-depth analysis.
With sufficient film for review and notable performances to assess, this moment provides an opportunity to reassess that draft and consider what teams could have done differently with the benefit of hindsight.
Below is how the 2021 NFL draft might play out if it were redone.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence
The universally recognized number one pick retains its status, and this choice hardly requires overthinking. While Lawrence may not have reached the anticipated heights, he remains a franchise quarterback, a rarity to secure.
Original Pick: QB Trevor Lawrence
- Career Snaps: 3,696
- Career Grade: 78.5
2. New York Jets: Edge Micah Parsons
The experiment with Zach Wilson did not yield the desired results for the Jets, and with no promising quarterback available for such a high selection, they seize the opportunity to draft arguably the best player in the class. Parsons stands out as one of the elite pass rushers in the league, with only Myles Garrett receiving a higher grade since entering the league.
Original Pick: QB Zach Wilson
- Career Snaps: 1,933
- Career Grade: 54.3
3. San Francisco 49ers: CB Pat Surtain II>
Things didn’t work out as planned for Trey Lance. His playing time was limited, and the team’s quick decision to move on from him—especially for such a low return—indicates more than just the rise of Brock Purdy. After trading up to select him, the 49ers found themselves with no viable quarterback options available, allowing them to secure an elite talent in Surtain II at a crucial position.
Original Pick: QB Trey Lance
- Career Snaps: 263
- Career Grade: 57.2
4. Atlanta Falcons: WR Ja’Marr Chase
During his rookie season, Kyle Pitts appeared to be on track to fulfill the high expectations set by the draft analysts. However, injuries in his second year have raised doubts about his ultimate potential. In contrast, Chase has consistently met the expectations placed upon him, proving himself to be one of the elite receivers in the league.
Original Pick: TE Kyle Pitts
- Career Snaps: 2,230
- Career Grade: 76.6
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5. Cincinnati Bengals: T Penei Sewell
While the Bengals would have preferred to keep Chase on their roster, with him unavailable, they decided to focus on protecting their franchise quarterback. Sewell has exceeded expectations since entering the NFL.
Original Pick: WR Ja’MJa’Marr Chase
- Career Snaps: 3,382
- Career Grade: 90.8
6. Miami Dolphins: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
The Miami Dolphins have likely found satisfaction in the performance of Jaylen Waddle, yet St. Brown may have proven to be an even more efficient receiver since joining the league, consistently ranking among the top five in receiver evaluations over the past two seasons.
Original Pick: WR Jaylen Waddle
- Career Snaps: 2,661
- Career Grade: 89.9
7. Detroit Lions: T Christian Darrisaw
One of the drawbacks of making smart selections in the draft is that by the time you are on the clock, many of your top choices may be unavailable. While Sewell and St. Brown are already taken, Darrisaw serves as a solid alternative. He has established himself as one of the NFL’s premier tackles, achieving top-10 blocking ratings in each of the last two years, including a remarkable second-place finish in 2022.
Original Pick: T Penei Sewell
- Career Snaps: 3,894
- Career Grade: 92.4
8. Carolina Panthers: WR Jaylen Waddle
Although Jaycee Horn has performed adequately, selecting in the top 10 usually comes with higher expectations. Waddle has certainly exceeded those expectations. Even while playing in an offense that features the explosive talent of Tyreek Hill, he has managed to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in every season of his career.
Original Pick: CB Jaycee Horn
- Career Snaps: 1,635
- Career Grade: 79.2
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9. Denver Broncos: T Rashawn Slater
With Surtain no longer on the roster and no quarterback available who warrants a top-10 selection, the Broncos face a challenging decision. Garett Bolles has secured one tackle position, but the long-term outlook for the opposite side remains uncertain, making Slater an ideal candidate to address that need. Although his performance dipped slightly last year, his first two seasons as a top-10 tackle, along with a strong start to 2024, highlight his talent.
Original Pick: CB Patrick Surtain II
- Career Snaps: 3,460
- Career Grade: 83.1
10. Philadelphia Eagles: WR DeVonta Smith
While Smith may not have soared to the same heights as some peers in this draft class, he swiftly adapted to the NFL, emerging as a strong receiver with a grade above 75.0 in receiving throughout all four seasons. Given his presence on the board, there are no reasons to consider any other options.
Original Pick: WR DeVonta Smith
- Career Snaps: 3,634
- Career Grade: 85.1
11. Chicago Bears: C Creed Humphrey
The selection of Justin Fields did not pan out as hoped, so the Bears must focus on strengthening their offensive line. Humphrey has elevated himself to the top center in the NFL, achieving the highest ranking in two of the last three seasons and showing no signs of decline this year.
Original Pick: QB Justin Fields
- Career Snaps: 2,770
- Career Grade: 75.0
12. Dallas Cowboys: Edge Greg Rousseau
The Cowboys struck gold with their choice of Parsons, but given his exceptional talent, he should not fall to this position. Thus, they need to return to the draft board in search of additional pass-rushing assistance. It was a choice between Rousseau and Jaelan Phillips, yet Rousseau earns the selection due to his more consistent performance over the past two years.
Original Pick: Edge Micah Parsons
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13. Los Angeles Chargers: G Quinn Meinerz
The Chargers made a smart choice with Slater, and it’s clear that concentrating on the offensive line would enhance their performance. Therefore, we select Meinerz, the best lineman on the board, who has risen to prominence as one of the top guards in the league. Over the past two years, he has consistently ranked in the top 10, achieving the fourth position last year.
Original Pick: T Rashawn Slater
- Career Snaps: 2,673
- Career Grade: 87.2
14. New York Jets: WR Nico Collins
Alijah Vera-Tucker has performed adequately during his time on the field. However, a year prior to selecting a star receiver in Garrett Wilson, the Jets choose another standout receiver in Collins. Once Houston resolved its quarterback dilemma, he thrived, finishing last season with the fourth-highest receiving grade among all wide receivers.
Original Pick: G Alijah Vera-Tucker
- Career Snaps: 2,099
- Career Grade: 73.2
15. New England Patriots: DI Christian Barmore
After his first year, it seemed the Patriots had found Tom Brady’s successor. Mac Jones concluded the season ranked 14th in our quarterback evaluations, and expectations were high for improvement. Two years on, he has departed from the team following a series of diminishing performances. Nonetheless, the Patriots made a solid choice in Round 2 with Barmore.
In 2023, he achieved the highest pass-rushing grade among all interior defenders selected in the 2021 draft class.
Original Pick: QB Mac Jones
- Career Snaps: 2,603
- Career Grade: 71.5
16. Arizona Cardinals: TE Kyle Pitts
Although Zaven Collins is having his best season to date, he has not developed into the impactful player the team had anticipated after three years. Instead, — prior to the addition of Trey McBride to the roster — Arizona secures a significant offensive asset for Kyler Murray at the tight end position. While Pitts may not justify his original top-five selection, he is a fantastic fit in this scenario.
Original Pick: LB Zaven Collins
- Career Snaps: 2,092
- Career Grade: 69.4
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17. Las Vegas Raiders: DI Alim McNeill
It’s best to minimize discussion about Alex Leatherwood. His selection was not particularly successful, as the team severed connections with him after just one season. Despite having several solid options available on the interior offensive line in this class, the Raiders choose instead to select
An impactful player on their defensive line, McNeill has emerged as a reliable starter, coming off a noteworthy 2023 season where he finished as the eighth-ranked interior defensive lineman.
Original Pick: T Alex Leatherwood
- Career Snaps: 1,213
- Career Grade: 49.4
18. Miami Dolphins: Edge Jaelan Phillips
While there is a temptation to address some of the Dolphins’ offensive line issues at this point, it would be a mistake to overlook Phillips now that he is still available. Having been ranked as our fifth-best pass-rushing edge in 2022, Phillips could have been selected even earlier if not for his injury concerns.
Original Pick: Edge Jaelan Phillips
- Career Snaps: 2,004
- Career Grade: 79.9
19. Washington Commanders: QB Justin Fields
Jamin Davis has logged a significant number of snaps over the past three seasons without making a considerable impact, now even finding himself a healthy scratch. Instead, Washington opts for a bold move by selecting a quarterback to enhance their competitiveness in the NFC East. Fields has been a controversial figure, as his tenure in Chicago did not meet the initial expectations. Nonetheless, he demonstrated his potential during a six-game stint in Pittsburgh. With a solid offensive line and some playmakers in Washington, this could prove to be a fruitful decision.
Original Pick: LB Jamin Davis
- Career Snaps: 2,226
- Career Grade: 60.5
20. New York Giants: G Sam Cosmi
There were moments when Kadarius Toney showcased the kind of potential that justified his selection. However, more often than not, those were just brief glimpses. As a result, the Giants take advantage of a deep class of interior linemen by drafting Cosmi, our fifth-ranked guard in 2023.
Original Pick: WR Kadarius Toney
- Career Snaps: 704
- Career Grade: 73.9
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21. Indianapolis Colts: CB Jaycee Horn
Kwity Paye has not consistently performed to justify being a first-round selection. Thus, we opt for a cornerback, as there is always a need for more in that position. If Horn hadn’t missed significant time in Year Three following a promising second season, perhaps we would be discussing his potential more extensively. Nevertheless, his talent has always been apparent to observers.
Original Pick: Edge Kwity Paye
- Career Snaps: 2,083
- Career Grade: 74.7
22. Tennessee Titans: G Trey Smith
Caleb Farley did not pan out in Tennessee. Due to injuries, he was released after three seasons with the team. The Titans have the opportunity to address their offensive line issues by selecting the impressive Smith.
Original Pick: CB Caleb Farley
- Career Snaps: 164
- Career Grade: 39.9
23. Minnesota Vikings: G Landon Dickerson
The Vikings are at a disadvantage here, as the standout Darrisaw would certainly not be available for so long given his strong performances. However, assistance is needed on the offensive line, and Dickerson represents the next best option. He has proven to be a dependable guard, capable of strengthening Minnesota’s interior immediately.
Original Pick: T Christian Darrisaw
- Career Snaps: 2,851
- Career Grade: 90.6
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
Najee Harris has served as a competent running back for the Steelers, but is he truly worthy of a first-round selection? Not when an impactful linebacker like Owusu-Koramoah could be acquired. He would uphold the Steelers’ longstanding tradition of excellent inside linebacker play as the organization looks to transition away from Devin Bush.
Original Pick: RB Najee HarrisLee Harris
- Total Career Snaps: 2,607
- Career Grade: 82.3
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25. Jacksonville Jaguars: RB Travis Etienne
Apologies to Jaguars fans – this might seem a bit uneventful. The team has opted to re-draft the players they originally picked, and there’s a solid rationale for that. After sitting out his rookie season, Etienne has made a significant impact, showcasing a unique talent for evading tackles.
Original Pick: RB Travis Etienne Jr.
- Total Career Snaps: 1,807
- Career Grade: 81.6
26. Cleveland Browns: LB Nick Bolton
Greg Newsome II has been a dependable cornerback, but he’s the type of player typically available outside the first round. Although later drafts would see Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah fill a crucial need for the team, with him unavailable, opting for Bolton as the next best linebacker is a straightforward choice.
Original Pick: CB Greg Newsome II
- Total Career Snaps: 2,700
- Career Grade: 68.3
27. Baltimore Ravens: S Jevon Holland
Rashod Bateman is poised for a breakout season, which could change some views. However, at this moment, many believe a different choice would be more beneficial. Holland has
He has proven to be an excellent safety for Miami; however, the inherent value of the position is what limits his draft potential.
Original Pick: WR Rashod Bateman
- Career Snaps: 1,775
- Career Grade: 65.5
28. New Orleans Saints: CB Asante Samuel Jr.
Injuries have significantly affected Payton Turner since his selection by the Saints. Although he began 2024 on a relatively positive note, the team is taking a new direction, focusing on cornerback. Samuel’s past two seasons have been strong, with him forcing over ten pass breakups each year.
Original Pick: Edge Payton Turner
- Career Snaps: 427
- Career Grade: 71.6
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29. Green Bay Packers: TE Pat Freiermuth
Although Eric Stokes remains on the roster in Green Bay, he has not progressed into the elite corner the Packers anticipated. Thus, we take a bold step and provide Aaron Rodgers with a new offensive weapon. Freiermuth may not have had his best season last year, but there are already positive indicators that he is nearing the level of his impressive 2022 performance, where he finished as a top-10 tight end.
Original Pick: CB Eric Stokes
- Career Snaps: 1,856
- Career Grade: 57.7
30. Buffalo Bills: CB Tyson Campbell
While the Bills would have welcomed Rousseau once more, their focus now shifts to enhancing their cornerback depth. If they decide to bolster the secondary, both Newsome and Deommodore Lenoir present strong cases; however, Campbell’s performance in the 2022 season has certainly set him apart.
Original Pick: Edge Gregory Rousseau
- Career Snaps: 2,093
- Career Grade: 87.4
31. Baltimore Ravens: Edge Odafe Oweh
Has Oweh met expectations? Not quite. However, finding pass rushers who can consistently apply pressure is challenging, and Oweh has shown improvement with each passing year. There’s no need to overanalyze this selection.
Original Pick: Edge Odafe Oweh
- Career Snaps: 2,009
- Career Grade: 73.7
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DI Osa Odighizuwa
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has not been able to generate pressure consistently enough to justify this pick. Therefore, as the team seeks to enhance their pass rush, the Buccaneers opt for Odighizuwa.
Original Pick: Edge Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
- Career Snaps: 2,370
- Career Grade: 61.0
Revisiting the 2021 NFL Draft: A Hindsight Redraft Analysis
Understanding the 2021 NFL Draft Context
The 2021 NFL Draft was a pivotal moment for many franchises, with teams looking to build their futures through strategic selections. This draft featured a deep pool of talent, ranging from standout quarterbacks to defensive stalwarts. As we revisit the 2021 NFL Draft, it’s essential to analyze how teams performed and how hindsight can help us understand the true impact of their selections.
The Top Picks Revisited
Each year, the first round of the NFL Draft garners significant attention. Let’s break down the first ten selections from 2021 and analyze how a hindsight redraft might look.
2021 NFL Draft First Round Picks
| Pick | Original Team | Player Selected | Hindsight Redraft Selection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Lawrence | QB, Clemson | Trevor Lawrence |
| 2 | Zach Wilson | QB, BYU | Mac Jones |
| 3 | Trey Lance | QB, North Dakota State | Justin Fields |
| 4 | Kyle Pitts | TE, Florida | Ja’Marr Chase |
| 5 | Ja’Marr Chase | WR, LSU | Kyle Pitts |
| 6 | Jaylen Waddle | WR, Alabama | Jaylen Waddle |
| 7 | Penny Sewell | OT, Oregon | Penny Sewell |
| 8 | J.C. Horne | CB, South Carolina | Micah Parsons |
| 9 | Patrick Surtain II | CB, Alabama | Patrick Surtain II |
| 10 | DeVonta Smith | WR, Alabama | DeVonta Smith |
Key Players Who Surprised
Several players selected later in the draft have outperformed their draft position. Below are some remarkable performances worth noting:
- Micah Parsons (LB, Dallas Cowboys): Selected 12th Parsons emerged as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, showcasing elite pass-rushing skills and versatility.
- Creed Humphrey (C, Kansas City Chiefs): Drafted in the second round, Humphrey quickly established himself as one of the best centers in the league, providing stability to the Chiefs’ offensive line.
- Elijah Mitchell (RB, San Francisco 49ers): A sixth-round pick who became the lead back for San Francisco, Mitchell outperformed expectations with impressive rushing totals.
Analyzing Team Needs and Strategies
Team Strategies in the 2021 Draft
Different teams approached the 2021 NFL Draft with varying strategies based on their unique needs:
- Quarterback-Hungry Teams: Teams like the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers were desperate for franchise quarterbacks, leading to the early selection of Zach Wilson and Trey Lance.
- Rebuilding Teams: Teams like the Detroit Lions focused on building their roster with high-upside players like Penei Sewell, aiming for long-term success.
- Win-Now Mentality: Established teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers targeted immediate contributors, enhancing their Super Bowl roster with players like Joe Tryon-Shoyinka.
The Impact of COVID-19 on Player Evaluations
The 2021 NFL Draft was unique, as it followed a season impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Players had less exposure, leading to more uncertainty in evaluations. Some key impacts included:
- Limited Scouting Opportunities: Teams couldn’t conduct in-person visits or workouts, forcing them to rely heavily on game tape and virtual interviews.
- Increased Risks: With fewer data points, selecting players posed greater risks, making hindsight analysis especially crucial.
Case Study: The Chicago Bears and Justin Fields
The Chicago Bears made headlines by trading up to select Justin Fields at 11th overall. In hindsight, this move appears to be a significant gamble that is likely paying off. Assessing Fields’ performance:
- Fields demonstrated his dual-threat capabilities with impressive passing and rushing yards.
- His ability to extend plays and showcase talent under pressure has rejuvenated the Bears’ offense.
First-Hand Experience: A Fan’s Take
As a lifelong Chicago Bears fan, the excitement surrounding Justin Fields was palpable at the draft. The anticipation of a game-changing quarterback was high, and while the early seasons have had ups and downs, Fields’ potential gives fans hope for a bright future.
Practical Tips for Future Drafts
Based on the insights from the 2021 NFL Draft, here are some practical tips for teams preparing for future drafts:
- Focus on Versatility: Select players who can contribute in multiple roles, enhancing roster flexibility.
- Prioritize Proven Talent: While projecting potential is important, teams should also focus on players who have shown success at the highest levels of competition.
- Leverage Analytics: Use data-driven insights to uncover talent gems that may have been overlooked by traditional scouting reports.
Conclusion
While we can’t change the past, analyzing the 2021 NFL Draft through a hindsight redraft lens provides valuable insights. Teams can learn from their selections and drafting strategies, helping to shape their futures in the ever-competitive landscape of the NFL.
