As I pursue a career in predictions, it’s essential to evaluate my results. Earlier in the preseason, I wrote a series of ambitious predictions for each of the 32 teams in our season preview. These predictions encompassed expectations regarding team and player performances, awards, and potential trades.
However, in just five weeks, significant changes have occurred, revealing several insights. For instance, the national perspective on Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has shifted dramatically compared to our views at the season’s onset. Conversely, few anticipated that the Browns would find themselves with a 1-4 record.
This evolution means my predictions have also experienced various shifts. While some predictions remain on track, others seem unlikely to materialize, and many sit somewhere in between, with their chances fluctuating week by week. Let’s review each prediction’s current status and determine which are accurate, which still have a possibility, and which might should be discarded and replaced.
These predictions are categorized into three sections – on target, still a chance, and starting over – with teams listed alphabetically in each section. In the final category, I have provided entirely new bold predictions:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
On target
Original prediction: QB Kyler Murray will finish in the top 10 in QBR.
Why it’s on target: Murray is currently ranked sixth (66.4), which is about as promising as he or this prediction could have anticipated at this stage. He is excelling in coordinator Drew Petzing’s offense, contributing the third-highest expected points added (EPA) in the league while successfully throwing on the run. He has also produced the sixth-most EPA during play-action plays.
Original prediction: TE Kyle Pitts will fail to reach 700 receiving yards.
Why it’s on target: Pitts is close to the mark, projected for 656 yards. Yet, I would confidently wager against him once more. He ranks the lowest among tight ends and wide receivers“`html
Currently, he averages 57.5 receiving yards per game, putting him on pace for 920 yards, provided he doesn’t miss any more games. Shakir has recorded an impressive 2.9 yards per route run this season, which ranks him seventh among wide receivers who have run at least 15 routes per game.
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Original prediction: The Bengals will miss the playoffs.
Why it’s on target: With a record of 1-4, the Bengals now hold only a 33% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which is half of what their preseason expectations were. Interestingly, I might hold a more optimistic view on Cincinnati compared to the general sentiment. Their offense is performing exceptionally well, ranking third in EPA per play, while Joe Burrow sits second in QBR, potentially marking the best ranking of his career. Unfortunately, the defense has been a disappointment, ranking 30th in EPA allowed per play. However, in-season adjustments are generally easier for defenses than for offenses. Nevertheless, overcoming this rough start poses a significant challenge for any team.
Original prediction: CB Tyson Campbell will have a bounce-back season, mirroring his performance from 2022.
Why it’s on target: It’s fortunate that I selected a performance metric here. Unfortunately, Campbell sustained a hamstring injury in Week 1, making his season uncertain. He started strong, having allowed no receptions on the 29 coverage snaps he’s played, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Campbell is back to practicing and is expected to return to the field soon.
Original prediction: The Giants will rank among the top 20 in pass block win rate.
Why it’s on target: After five weeks, their offensive line currently ranks 19th with a 57.8% win rate. This is a possibility! Free agent Jon Runyan has proven to be beneficial in pass protection, with his pass block win rate of 95% ranking 13th among all guards.
Original prediction: OLB Nick Herbig will achieve at least seven sacks this season.
Why it’s on target: This prediction depends on his health. Herbig was having a solid performance against the Cowboys before leaving the game with a hamstring injury. He currently has 2.
The offensive line has been notably effective this season, featuring All-Pro tackle Trent Williams, rookie guard Dominick Puni, and center Jake Brendel, all of whom rank within the top 15 in their respective positions. However, the team’s run blocking has posed significant challenges, leading them to the bottom of the league with a run block win rate of just 66%. This struggle has resulted in a ranking of 21st in expected points added (EPA) per designed carry, even with standout performances from running back Jordan Mason, who boasts 159 rush yards over expectation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Original prediction: CB Riq Woolen is expected to be either a Pro Bowler or at least a second-team All-Pro.
Why it’s on target: Woolen has delivered impressive statistics. He has permitted only five receptions for 41 yards on 12 targets across 130 coverage snaps, as reported by NFL Next Gen Stats, while also securing an interception. His allowance of merely 0.3 yards per coverage snap ranks him third among outside corners, and he has incurred just one illegal contact penalty.
However, earning one of these accolades remains challenging, as consistently strong performance is required, and Woolen’s early-season stats may have been somewhat inflated due to the weaker offenses the Seahawks have faced. Nevertheless, he has met expectations so far this season, despite dealing with an ankle injury that will sideline him for Week 6.
Still a chance …
Original prediction: Keaton Mitchell should emerge as a top-10 fantasy RB in points per game upon returning from a torn ACL sustained late last season.
Why there’s still a chance: Coach John Harbaugh recently noted that Mitchell is “right on schedule” for his return this season. While his opportunity for playing time appears more competitive now, with Derrick Henry’s strong performance and Justice Hill thriving as a receiving back, the long season ahead still favors Mitchell’s inclusion as a speedy complement to Henry in the Baltimore offense.
Original prediction: QB Caleb Williams will likely have a sack rate of at least 10% through Week 6, even though the Bears are performing well in terms of pass block win rate.
Why there’s still a chance: As of Week 5, Williams has recorded an 8.6% sack rate, indicating that a poor performance against the Jaguars could push him closer to that threshold. Initially, I would have anticipated that the offensive line’s success would be the biggest hurdle for this prediction. However, after a couple of strong outings, the Bears now stand at 12th in pass block win rate,“`html
Revised prediction: Jerry Jeudy is expected to be a top 30 fantasy wide receiver.
Reasons for optimism: Initially drafted around WR50, Jeudy currently sits at WR45. This positioning indicates that achieving a top 30 finish is feasible, provided he remains healthy and the Browns’ offense enhances its passing effectiveness. However, with Deshaun Watson continuing to struggle as quarterback, this scenario appears unlikely.
Revised prediction: WR Courtland Sutton will achieve 1,000 receiving yards.
Reasons for optimism: A year ago, I modified my prediction regarding 49ers TE George Kittle’s chance to reach 1,000 receiving yards after he recorded only 138 in the first four weeks. Ultimately, Kittle made it happen. Sutton isn’t currently on pace for 1,000 yards, but his performance has surpassed Kittle’s at the same point, having accumulated 224 yards over five games, projecting him towards 762 yards. Having learned my lesson, I’m holding on to this prediction. If QB Bo Nix gains more confidence as the season unfolds, achieving this goal is still possible.
Revised prediction: G Kevin Zeitler will rank in the top five for pass block win rate among guards.
Reasons for optimism: Currently, Zeitler is positioned 22nd among guards with a 94% pass block win rate, but he has the potential to climb higher. In fact, had he converted just two of his pass block losses to wins, he would be tied for fifth place.
Revised prediction: MarShawn Lloyd will assume the primary running back role by season’s end.
Reasons for optimism: Lloyd’s prediction faced a rocky beginning. With only six carries before landing on injured reserve due to an ankle injury, Josh Jacobs has been impressive with 402 rushing yards in five games, averaging 0.7 rush yards over expectation per attempt. Additionally, Emanuel Wilson has proven to be a capable backup. Yet, since Lloyd has not had a chance to showcase his abilities, I won’t dismiss this prediction completely.
Revised prediction: CB Derek Stingley Jr. will earn a Pro Bowl selection.
Reasons for optimism: Stingley is performing well, exhibiting a slightly negative expected points added (EPA) allowed—indicating better than average performance—and allowing 1.4 yards per coverage snap, which is marginally worse than average, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Being a top-three draft pick in 2022 lends him notoriety;
It would certainly be surprising if they ended up with 12 losses.
Initial prediction: TE Colby Parkinson is expected to achieve over eight touchdowns.
Reasons for remaining optimism: With Parkinson currently at zero touchdowns, this prediction might seem far-fetched. However, it was based on the notion that he would see significant playtime, which has indeed been the case. He has participated in 87% of the Rams’ offensive snaps, so there is still a possibility—albeit slim.
Initial prediction: Sam Darnold is projected to finish the season outside the top 20 in QBR.
Reasons for remaining optimism: Despite the Vikings’ impressive undefeated start to the season, Darnold currently sits at 14th place (58.7 QBR). While he has exceeded my expectations in terms of productivity, it’s conceivable that this bold forecast might not hold. However, at 14th place through the first five weeks, he is not yet completely safe from dropping below 21st by season’s end, particularly given his track record.
0:41
Review of Sam Darnold’s fantasy performance in Week 5
Take a closer look at some of Sam Darnold’s fantasy stats during his matchup against the Jets.
Initial prediction: Drake Maye is expected to rank among the top 14 fantasy QBs in points per game played.
Reasons for remaining optimism: Can we reframe this to “points per start” so that his one relief appearance doesn’t negatively impact him? This prediction remains uncertain since we have only witnessed Maye attempt eight passes thus far. However, we will soon have more clarity, as Maye is set to start this Sunday against the Texans.
Initial prediction: The Buccaneers are anticipated to secure six or fewer wins.
Reasons for remaining optimism: While this prediction might be dismissed, stranger things have occurred. My confidence in this forecast has diminished after the Buccaneers started the season with a 3-2 record—could have even been 4-1 if
The pace to achieve 75 can be accelerated by a single long breakaway run. This scenario remains a possibility.
Start Fresh
Initial prediction: Bryce Young will rank among the top 18 in QBR.
Reason for revision: Young struggled significantly in his initial two starts this season, managing a QBR of only 9 before being benched, placing him last in the league.
Revised bold prediction: The Panthers are likely to trade OLB Jadeveon Clowney prior to the deadline. Clowney has recorded just one sack, yet maintains a solid 21% pass rush win rate, consistent with his career averages. At 31 years old and playing for a team not in playoff contention, he holds little value for the Panthers. It would benefit them to trade him to a team that might need his services for victories during this season (and possibly for 2025, as he has an additional year remaining on his contract).
Initial prediction: OLB Micah Parsons will surpass the single-season sack record of 22.5.
Reason for revision: This season, Parsons has only managed one sack, missed Week 5 due to an ankle injury, and has a 19% pass rush win rate, ranking 19th out of 50 qualifiers at his position. It appears unlikely that this will happen, particularly in 2024.
Revised bold prediction: WR KaVontae Turpin is expected to conclude the season with a minimum of 500 receiving yards. Although Turpin has limited playtime — having run only 45 routes — he impressively averages 2.3 yards per route. With Brandin Cooks (knee) on injured reserve and seemingly in decline — as indicated by his 37 open score in our Receiver Scores — Turpin has a chance to make a meaningful impact.
Stay Updated on the NFL All Season
• Full schedule » | Standings »
• Depth charts for every team »
• Transactions » | Injuries »
• Football Power Index »
• Projections for the playoff picture »
Additional NFL coverage »
Initial prediction: DEs Kwity Paye and Laiatu Latu will combine for over“`html
Original prediction: The Chiefs will have the top offensive performance in football based on EPA per play.
Why we’re throwing it out: They haven’t performed well enough up to this point, sitting in ninth place through Week 5. I don’t expect them to rise to first place, particularly given the injuries to wide receivers Hollywood Brown (shoulder) and Rashee Rice (knee).
New bold prediction: Cornerback Jaylen Watson will earn Pro Bowl alternate status. While Trent McDuffie has stepped up significantly to compensate for the absence of L’Jarius Sneed, Watson has also performed admirably, allowing just 1.1 yards per coverage snap (which is above average) and posting a minus-9 EPA when targeted, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Original prediction: The Chargers will be among the top 20 teams in designed passing plays.
Why we’re throwing it out: The earlier speculation about a run-heavy approach under Coach Jim Harbaugh and Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman has proven accurate, as the Chargers currently rank last in the NFL in designed pass rate at 50%.
New bold prediction: Offensive tackle Joe Alt will fall below average in his pass block win rate starting from Week 6. Although this prediction might not seem particularly bold, considering his current uncertain status and his ranking of 56th out of 70 tackles in this category, given his reputation as a top-five draft pick, it would surprise many to see him struggle. I often refer to historical data for rookie offensive linemen, noting that most, even first-round picks, tend to be below average in their first year—even though they may improve later on.
Original prediction: The Dolphins will make it to the AFC Championship Game.
Why we’re throwing it out: With quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) out of action, the Football Power Index (FPI) ranks the Dolphins as the worst team in the league. Should Tagovailoa return in the next month, they will likely find themselves playing catch-up in the standings. Even when he played in two games, the offense recorded a negative EPA per play.
New bold prediction: Outside linebacker Chop Robinson will secure at least five sacks. Although he has yet to record any sacks, he is expected to receive more playing time following Jaelan Phillips’ season-ending knee injury. Robinson boasts an 18% pass rush win rate at the edge position, which is slightly above average for a starter.
Original prediction: Defensive end Chase Young will accumulate seven sacks before the trade deadline and will be traded again.
Why we’re throwing it out: While it’s not entirely out of the question, with Young currently at 1.5inline”>
0:55
Clay: Olave, Shaheed not guaranteed starters without Carr
Daniel Dopp and Mike Clay analyze the situation in New Orleans concerning Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, discussing the impact of Derek Carr’s absence.
Initial prediction: Both WR Garrett Wilson and CB Sauce Gardner are set to be first-team All-Pros.
Reason for reconsideration: This was a lofty expectation from the start, and I’m re-evaluating it regarding Wilson just five games into the season. While I firmly believe in his abilities, as long as QB Aaron Rodgers and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett persist with back-shoulder throws and a traditional offensive strategy, I doubt Wilson will accumulate the necessary yardage. The Receiver Scores reflect this decline, with a score of 33, placing him 78th in the league.
New bold prediction: Mike Williams will end the season with at least six touchdowns. The Jets have gradually reintegrated Williams, who currently has no touchdowns. However, they are running numerous fades and go routes that require a receiver to sprint straight down the field and likely make contested catches. This is precisely where Williams excels, so it could be beneficial for him.
Initial prediction: DT Jalen Carter will achieve over 10 sacks.
Reason for reconsideration: As of Week 5, Carter has no sacks and only an 11% pass rush win rate. I maintain optimism for his future, but his current form won’t lead to double-digit sack totals.
New bold prediction: Jalen Hurts will rank among the top seven in QBR from Week 6 onwards. Currently sitting at 13th (59.3 QBR), he has been facing career-high interception and sack rates while executing shorter passes than usual. He misses WR A.J. Brown, who is unavailable due to a hamstring injury. Once Brown is back and Hurts has more time to connect with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, I expect Hurts to improve his efficiency.
Initial prediction: The Commanders will trade DT Jonathan Allen before the deadline.
Reason for reconsideration: With a 4-1 record, they have the opportunity to compete now. It’s unlikely they will trade away key contributors as the deadline approaches.
New bold prediction: They will execute multiple trades before the deadline to enhance their defense and/or acquire starting talent at wide receiver (perhaps Davante Adams?). I would have been surprised to make this prediction earlier in the season, but there’s no time to lose: they have a strong quarterback, the rest of the division is struggling, and the NFC appears relatively weak. It’s time to act.
Revisiting NFL Predictions: Assessing the Accuracy After Five Weeks of Action
Understanding NFL Predictions: A Brief Overview
As we delve into the NFL season, predictions have become a focal point for fans and analysts alike. The NFL’s unpredictability makes accurate forecasting a challenging endeavor. After five weeks of intense action, it’s crucial to assess the accuracy of these predictions and understand how teams have performed against expectations.
Key Metrics for Evaluation
When evaluating NFL predictions, several metrics should be considered:
- Win-Loss Records: The simplest indicator of a team’s performance.
- Point Differentials: The difference between points scored and points allowed.
- Player Statistics: Individual performances that contribute to team success.
- Injury Reports: Key injuries can significantly impact a team’s performance.
- Expert Predictions vs. Actual Outcomes: Comparing pre-season predictions with current standings.
Week-by-Week Performance Analysis
| Week | Top Predictions | Actual Outcomes | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs over Texans | Chiefs 31, Texans 17 | Predicted outcome aligned with expectations. |
| 2 | Packers vs. Lions (Lions Win) | Lions 23, Packers 20 | Lions performed better than predicted. |
| 3 | Buccaneers vs. Falcons (Buccaneers Win) | Falcons 24, Buccaneers 15 | Upset alert! Falcons exceeded expectations. |
| 4 | Ravens vs. Browns (Ravens Win) | Ravens 20, Browns 10 | Ravens confirmed dominance. |
| 5 | 49ers vs. Cowboys (49ers Win) | 49ers 42, Cowboys 10 | Predicted outcome significantly underestimated 49ers. |
Analyzing Team Performances
Surprising Performances
- Detroit Lions: Predicted to struggle, the Lions have shown resilience with key wins, particularly against division rivals.
- Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have surprised many with their aggressive offensive strategy, securing notable upsets.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Despite mixed predictions, the Steelers have demonstrated a strong defense that has kept them competitive.
Disappointments in Predictions
- Dallas Cowboys: Initially viewed as contenders, their performances have raised questions about their consistency.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Struggling to meet early season expectations, their offense has been less effective than predicted.
- New England Patriots: Considered a playoff team, their struggles have led to a reassessment of their capabilities.
Player Performances vs. Predictions
Player statistics are pivotal in analyzing team performance. Here’s a snapshot of standout players who have either met or exceeded expectations:
| Player | Team | Predicted Stats | Actual Stats | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 3500 Yards, 30 TDs | 1500 Yards, 15 TDs | On pace to meet expectations. |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 3800 Yards, 25 TDs | 1700 Yards, 18 TDs | Exceeding expectations in early games. |
| Tom Brady | Buccaneers | 4300 Yards, 40 TDs | 1400 Yards, 10 TDs | Underwhelming for expectations. |
Expert Predictions vs. Reality
According to recent analyses, many expert predictions have fallen short or exceeded expectations. For instance, SportsLine’s advanced model utilized over 10,000 simulations to assess Week 6 matchups, highlighting shifting dynamics in the league [[1](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-odds-vegas-lines-picks-spreads-game-predictions-model-backs-falcons-commanders-in-week-6-2024/)].
Expert Picks vs. Actual Outcomes
| Expert Pick | Predicted Winner | Actual Winner | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Chiefs | Chiefs | Correct |
| Week 2 | Packers | Lions | Incorrect |
| Week 3 | Buccaneers | Falcons | Incorrect |
| Week 4 | Ravens | Ravens | Correct |
| Week 5 | 49ers | 49ers | Correct |
Benefits of Analyzing Predictions
Assessing NFL predictions provides numerous benefits for fans and bettors alike:
- Enhanced Understanding: Gaining insights into team strategies and player performances.
- Informed Betting Decisions: Better analysis leads to more strategic betting.
- Fan Engagement: Analyzing predictions fosters deeper discussions among fans.
Conclusion
revisiting NFL predictions after five weeks reveals both successes and surprises. The dynamics of the league continue to evolve, making it imperative for fans and analysts to stay informed and adaptable. As we look forward to the remainder of the season, the lessons learned during these weeks will shape future predictions and enhance the overall experience of following the NFL.
