During each offseason, I compile a ranking of every traded first-round pick in the NBA, and with every passing year, that list expands. When we began this tradition in 2022, there were 47 picks to evaluate. Fast forward to 2023, and the number climbed to 56. Now, as we enter 2024, we’ve reached a total of 68 picks. Below is the breakdown of these picks:
- 24 unprotected picks owed outright.
- 22 protected picks owed outright.
- 16 unprotected picks owed via swap rights.
- Five protected picks owed via swap rights.
If there were concerns that the new collective bargaining agreement would discourage teams from trading their picks, we can lay those worries to rest. While navigating financials has become more challenging, once teams overcome that hurdle, they are likely to continue packaging their picks for disgruntled veterans. Currently, in the NBA, there are theoretically 210 first-round picks available. This figure includes every teams’ picks for the next seven years, as that is the maximum timeline for trading. Notably, for the first time in this endeavor, we’ve surpassed the 30% traded threshold; exactly 32.3% of these 210 picks have changed hands.
As always, it’s crucial to acknowledge that not all draft picks carry the same weight. At times, an owed first-round pick can net you a player like Jayson Tatum, while at other times it may result in a player like Romeo Langford. Today, our aim is to determine which picks are more likely to yield players akin to Tatum versus those that might lead to Langford. The following criteria guide our sorting process:
- Protections. This is the clearest distinction between a potentially valuable pick and a less significant one. An unprotected pick is almost invariably worth more.
- Point of origin. Is the pick sourced from a strong team or a weaker one? More importantly, what do we project for the team’s status when the pick is expected to convey? Is their roster young or aging? Prone to injuries or mostly healthy? How much faith do we place in the front office and ownership? The potential of a team’s future is the most critical aspect of a pick’s value. Almost any franchise would rather chance a low probability at a high pick than receive a guaranteed selection in the 20s. Moreover, with swap rights involved, the value disparity widens with each pick’s rank. The difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 picks is substantial, while the gap between the No. 20 and No. 21 picks is minimal.
- Year of conveyance. This criterion can be a bit trickier to assess. Generally speaking, most teams prefer to possess a valuable pick today rather than years down the line. This preference is tied to job security, as general managers are hesitant to retain picks they might not be around to utilize. However, picks that are about to convey offer a clearer picture. Future picks remain more uncertain. Consequently, if a pick comes from a strong“`html
For the sake of clarity, let me clarify a quick distinction: secondary swaps will not be ranked. A secondary swap occurs when a team provides swap rights in a year during which they are already obligated to provide swap rights. For instance, the Suns owe swap rights on their 2026 pick to the Wizards, but they have also granted the Magic the right to swap picks with them, depending on their respective positions post-Washington swap. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have the right to swap with the Suns afterwards. We won’t delve deeper into that intricacy. The 2026 Phoenix pick will be assessed independently.
Lastly, it’s important to note that this isn’t a direct forecast of how high each of these picks will ultimately be valued. That would frankly be impossible. We have no idea what the order of the 2031 draft will be, and to claim otherwise would be naive. Instead, we are evaluating the value of each outstanding pick today. Although we can’t predict the 2031 draft order precisely, we can analyze where a team stands currently and project what their long-term outlook might entail. Teams certainly consider this in trade discussions, as perception plays a significant role.
The core question we aim to answer here is: among these 68 owed picks, which would you prefer to have if you were managing another team? Which picks boast the best balance of upside to risk? Which picks could likely be traded for a significant return later, or potentially even repurchased at a premium from their original owner (we will discuss this idea further)? The responses to these queries may vary among teams. Some executives are more tolerant of risk than others. Taking all these factors into consideration, here are our rankings of the 68 first-round picks currently owed out through trades.
- Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap
The Timberwolves may experience a downturn in 2026, while the Jazz could improve their standing. Last season revealed a 25-win disparity between these two teams, so considering their roster compositions, it’s hard to envision Utah making up that difference in the next two years. This should result in an unrealized swap.
67. Washington Wizards, 2025
- Currently belongs to: New York Knicks
- Protections: 1-10 -> 1-8 -> Converts to second-round picks in 2026 and 2027
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
The Wizards recorded just 15 wins last season, and they appear weaker on paper now compared to April. They are deliberately trying not to convey this pick, and they are likely to succeed.
- Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
- Protections: 1-14 -> Converts to second-round picks in 2026 and 2027
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
The Hornets are slightly ahead in their rebuilding process compared to the Wizards, making it plausible that they could sneak into the Play-In Tournament and clinch a playoff position in a weak Eastern Conference. However, the odds are slim, and the Spurs have only one chance left to acquire this pick before it turns into second-round picks. This one likely won’t be conveyed.
65. Phoenix Suns, 2026
- Currently belongs to:“`html
The Cavaliers have the opportunity to swap their own pick here. If their pick is higher than that of the Timberwolves, they might be able to gain some value from this exchange. However, the downside is that Cleveland is expected to be competitive in 2026, potentially resulting in only a minor advantage, if the swap is even utilized.
- Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards
- Protections: 1-20 -> Converts to second-round pick in 2030
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
This pick has become one of the less genuine first-round selections traded in recent years. A single-use pick with a two-thirds likelihood of never being conveyed seven years after the trade? It certainly conveys a message that suggests “we simply wanted the press release to appear somewhat better.” Who knows what the Warriors’ status will be in 2030. If they perform poorly, the Wizards won’t receive the pick. If they excel? Congratulations on acquiring a low-potential asset.
- Currently belongs to: Orlando Magic
- Protections: 1-5 -> 1-5 -> 1-5 -> Obligation extinguishes if no pick is conveyed by 2027
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
Speaking of low-value assets, Nikola Jokic recently led his team to 48 wins in a season where Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. collectively played only nine games. As long as Jokic remains with Denver, any pick from them is fairly expected to land in the 20s. The protections diminish your prospects in case he suffers an injury.
- Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
- Protections: 1
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap
A swap scheduled for 2028 carries some uncertainty for most teams, yet Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will still be in their prime years by then. While the Spurs might move up a few spots with this pick, the probability is that Boston won’t be sending the Spurs a particularly valuable pick in 2028. The top-1 protection is merely an extra disappointment in this scenario.
- Currently belongs to: Philadelphia 76ers
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Philadelphia receives the least favorable of the following 2026 first-round picks: Thunder, Rockets, and Clippers
We are entering a series of “least favorable” picks. These selections typically hold limited value because it’s uncommon for three teams to be particularly poor simultaneously. Moreover, when such conditions occur, it’s even less likely that a team will trade one of their picks.
- Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Brooklyn receives the least favorable of the following 2026 first-round picks: Mavericks, Suns, and Rockets
As a general guideline, acquiring one of these ”least favorable” picks is preferable later rather than sooner. It generally has more practical value as a trade asset, especially for a role player during the trade deadline, compared to its standalone value as a draft pick.
58. Denver Nuggets, 2027
- Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
- Protections: 1-5 -> 1-5 -> 1-5 -> Converts to second-round pick“`html
Denver Nuggets, 2029
- Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
- Protections: 1-5 -> 1-5 -> Converts to second-round pick in 2030
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
This is the prime example of the protected Denver picks, as the extended time frame allows for greater variability. However, this will still be Jokic’s age-33 season.
Houston Rockets, 2025
- Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
- Protections: 1-10
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap
The Thunder are expected to perform so well that virtually any swap will hold considerable value for them. For instance, moving from No. 27 to No. 12 in a promising draft would be significant. Most likely, Houston will finish somewhere between the late lottery and the middle of the first round. Had the Rockets been in the East, this swap would have been considerably more advantageous for the Thunder, but given the competitive nature of the West, the likelihood of falling out of Play-In Tournament contention and protecting their pick is too great to place this swap any higher.
Phoenix Suns, 2025
- Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets or Houston Rockets
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Houston owes the Thunder swap rights on its own 2025 first-round pick but may also swap any pick with the Nets in exchange for Phoenix’s pick.
Houston is anticipated to be weaker than Phoenix this year… but will Oklahoma City also perform poorly? This trade represents a clever safeguard against Houston’s existing swap with the Thunder. While it would indeed be disappointing to drop from the lottery into the 20s, they could potentially recover some of their standing through Phoenix. The Suns must also consider sufficient downside risks that could lead Houston to execute this swap, especially if injuries impact the Rockets’ performance, irrespective of the Thunder’s situation.
- Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
- Protections: 1-10 -> 1-8 -> Obligation extinguishes
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
The Jazz frequently contemplate sending this pick to the Thunder but often choose to deconstruct the rotation at the trade deadline to safeguard it instead. By re-signing Lauri Markkanen, it appears they intend to follow a similar strategy this season. There is potential value in the Jazz being good enough to contend for picks No. 9 or No. 10 in 2026, but let’s be realistic; Danny Ainge is unlikely to maintain the “too good to tank” approach for much longer. Either the Jazz improve significantly, minimizing the pick’s worth, or they struggle, prompting them to take more aggressive measures to protect this selection.
Minnesota Timberwolves, 2025
- Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
We have arrived at the segment featuring “unprotected 2025 picks from very good teams.” Any one of these picks could potentially be valuable under the right circumstances (refer to last year’s Grizz
Garland is set for a rebound season.
- Currently belongs to: Atlanta Hawks
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped, or conditional? Atlanta receives the least favorable of the following 2027 first-round picks: Pelicans and Bucks.
We’re including a “least favorable” pick here because it presents a slightly more appealing option than the other picks we’ve discussed. Unlike those prior selections, this “least favorable” pick only hinges on the performance of two teams in the upcoming season. While both teams have potential for improvement, the Pelicans are largely reliant on the injury-prone Zion Williamson, and the Bucks are one of the NBA‘s oldest squads. Therefore, there is a legitimate chance that both teams could underperform this season.
- Currently belongs to: New Orleans Pelicans or Brooklyn Nets
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped, or conditional? The pick goes to the Pelicans if it falls between 1-4, and to the Nets if it lands between 5-30.
This pick was challenging to rank due to its unusual protection structure. Regardless of its destination, it will indeed be conveyed, but the specific team receiving it depends on where the pick lands. I contemplated ranking the pick twice — once considering the 1-4 protections and once for the 5-30 protections. This seemed a reasonable approach since Milwaukee’s 2025 first-round pick is effectively held by two different teams. Ultimately, I decided to rank the pick as it is, without divisions. Although the Bucks appear stronger than the Cavaliers, their age introduces a considerable amount of risk. We will discuss this matter in depth later.
47. Portland Trail Blazers, 2025
- Currently belongs to: Chicago Bulls
- Protections: 1-14 -> 1-14 -> 1-14 -> 1-14 -> Converts to second-round pick in 2028
- Owed, swapped, or conditional? Owed
This pick’s value hinges on Portland’s adherence to a conventional rebuilding strategy. The lottery protection significantly caps its potential, suggesting that the most likely outcome is a return to playoff contention as a low seed. Therefore, this pick might be forfeited due to four more years of poor performance from Portland or could end up being a guaranteed selection in the 15-20 range as soon as the Blazers regain competitiveness. While this isn’t an extraordinary asset, it’s certainly more favorable than holding a pick expected to land at No. 26.
- Currently belongs to: Toronto Raptors
- Protections: 1-4 -> 1-4 -> Converts to Utah’s second-round pick in 2027 and Dallas’ in 2028
- Owed, swapped, or conditional? Owed
Tyrese Haliburton averages missing about 14.5 games each season, and Indiana’s entire system is built around his unique capabilities. Much like the Portland pick, the upside here is quite restricted, but the Pacers recently sent the Raptors the 19th selection largely due to Haliburton’s injuries impacting their regular-season performance. While you aren’t likely to acquire a top-tier pick here, there’s a good chance you will end up with a decent“`html
- Actuellement détenu par : San Antonio Spurs
- Protections : Aucune
- En devoir, échangé ou conditionnel ? Échange
Le swap de Dallas en 2030 dépasse son homologue de 2028 uniquement en raison de deux années supplémentaires d’incertitude. Les Spurs devraient être suffisamment compétitifs pour utiliser ce swap, même s’il se situe à la fin du premier tour. Mais si Doncic est toujours à Dallas à ce moment-là, les Mavericks seront probablement très performants eux aussi.
42. Milwaukee Bucks, 2026
- Actuellement détenu par : New Orleans Pelicans
- Protections : Aucune
- En devoir, échangé ou conditionnel ? Échange
Nous allons bien entendu aborder les Bucks de manière plus approfondie au fur et à mesure que nous progressons dans le classement (ce qui, évidemment, sera beaucoup plus élevé). Pour l’instant, disons simplement qu’il y a un certain potentiel à parier contre l’âge des Milwaukee, mais Giannis Antetokounmpo devrait rester dans l’équipe à ce moment-là. Sa simple présence protège la franchise contre la plupart des pires scénarios pour les Bucks.
41. Cleveland Cavaliers, 2028
- Actuellement détenu par : Utah Jazz
- Protections : Aucune
- En devoir, échangé ou conditionnel ? Échange
Cleveland sera probablement encore compétitif en 2028, mais Donovan Mitchell a une option de joueur pour la saison 2027-28. Donc, s’il souhaite partir avant cela, il y aura beaucoup d’incertitude en jeu ici. D’une manière ou d’une autre, le Jazz aura une direction claire d’ici 2028.
40. Philadelphia 76ers, 2027
- Actuellement détenu par : Brooklyn Nets
- Protections : 1-8 -> 1-8 -> Convertit en choix de deuxième tour en 2028
- En devoir, échangé ou conditionnel ?
Ce choix ne pourra évidemment pas devenir un choix très haut en raison des protections, mais il reste un potentiel de valeur intéressant en pariant sur les 76ers de 2027, compte tenu de leur âge et des blessures. Ce sera la saison où Paul George aura 36 ans et Joel Embiid aura 32 ans. Tyrese Maxey protégera probablement les 76ers d’une place dans le bas du classement, ainsi il existe des scénarios plausibles où les Nets obtiennent ici un choix tardif de loterie.
- Actuellement détenu par : Atlanta Hawks
- Protections : 1-12 -> 1-10 -> Convertit en choix de deuxième tour en 2026 et 2027
- En devoir, échangé ou conditionnel ? En devoir
Ce choix a un peu de similitude avec celui protégé par loterie de Portland que nous avons vu plus tôt, mais il est un peu plus précieux pour plusieurs raisons. D’abord, les protections sont moins strictes. Ensuite, il est susceptible de se concrétiser plus tôt. Enfin, et c’est le“`html
- Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
- Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Portland will receive the most favorable and least favorable among the following 2029 first-round picks: Celtics, Bucks, and Blazers. Washington will receive the second-most favorable.
- Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City or Philadelphia
- Protections: 1-4 -> Converts to second-round pick in 2026
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Oklahoma City receives the two most favorable of the following 2026 first-round picks: Thunder, Clippers, and Rockets. Philadelphia receives the least favorable.
- Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
- Protections: 1-14 -> Unprotected
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
- Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
- Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap
- Presently owned by: Oklahoma City Thunder
- Protections: 1-5
- Owed, swapped or conditional? It’s a swap, but Oklahoma City may opt to send the Los Angeles franchise Denver’s 2027 pick or their own.
- Currently owned by: Houston Rockets or Brooklyn Nets
- Protections: None
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
- Currently owned by: San Antonio Spurs
- Protections: 1
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap
- Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap
- Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
- Protections: 1-4 -> Converts to second-round pick in 2027
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
- Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
- Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
- Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
- Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
- Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap
- Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
- Currently belongs to: Atlanta Hawks
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed
- Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap
- The Suns are emerging from a 49-win season, primarily built around a 31-year-old (Bradley Beal) and a 35-year-old (Kevin Durant), both of whom struggle with injuries. Their roster isn’t particularly youthful beyond this duo. Starting center Jusuf Nurkic is 30, and Royce O’Neale, at 31, is beginning a four-year contract. The most promising young talent may be first-round rookie Ryan Dunn, expected to excel defensively while being lackluster on offense.
- Beal possesses a no-trade clause, effectively locking them into three more years with him.
- Similar to the Timberwolves, their two-year second apron clock begins this season, necessitating a strategy to reduce expenses ahead of the 2026-27 season.
- There’s little reason to have faith in the team’s management. Mat Ishbia has demonstrated a complete lack of restraint since acquiring the franchise, which is beneficial for immediate title aspirations but detrimental for long-term vision. General Manager James Jones has openly expressed his disinterest in nurturing and developing players. Isiah Thomas, known as one of the worst general managers in NBA history, serves as an unofficial advisor to Ishbia. While Mike Budenholzer was an excellent coaching hire, Frank Vogel only lasted a year. The Suns may end up with one coach for the next decade—or possibly four.
- Currently belongs to: Portland Trail Blazers
- Protections: N/A
- Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap
- Khris Middleton is now 33 and hasn’t completed a healthy season
- Recently, Cleveland Browns owner Jimmy Haslam acquired Marc Lasry’s stake in the Bucks. Haslam is regarded as one of the NFL‘s least effective owners, while the Bucks operate under an ownership structure where governance of the team rotates every five years. Haslam will oversee the team from 2028 to 2033.
- Milwaukee isn’t perceived as a high-profile market. While the Clippers might navigate their roster challenges by freeing up cap space in Los Angeles, it’s significantly more difficult to envision the Bucks achieving the same.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo has been quite clear about his readiness to leave if the team fails to seriously contend for championships. “Ultimately, being a winner is the primary objective,” he expressed in a 2023 interview with The New York Times. “Winning a championship is the foremost goal. I don’t want to spend 20 years with the same team without securing another title.” So far, the Bucks have managed to hold on to Antetokounmpo by making significant trades, first acquiring Jrue Holiday and then Damian Lillard. Currently, there are no assets remaining to facilitate further moves. Antetokounmpo can become a free agent in the summer of 2027, making the summer of 2026 a crucial decision point. Any draft picks obtained thereafter must be viewed with the possibility that Antetokounmpo could be playing for another team. If the Bucks manage to secure another championship or come close before then, he might conclude his career in Milwaukee. However, he has indicated that he will not remain with underperforming teams during his prime years. The Bucks must be in a position to win both now and in the future if they wish to secure his commitment to another contract extension. If they falter, their draft picks will become exceedingly valuable.
Consequently, the Bucks find themselves under scrutiny for potential disarray, which places the Blazers—who control their draft picks from 2028 to 2030—in a favorable situation. The least favorable of these top-10 picks is the swap option, being less advantageous in timing compared to other available swaps that we will discuss next.
8. Phoenix Suns, 2030
- Currently owned by: Washington Wizards
- Protections: N/A
- Type: Owed, swapped, or conditional?
The 2030 Phoenix Suns swap has slightly more value than the 2028 swap, primarily due to Devin Booker. He is under contract with no player option for the 2027-28 season, yet he will need to re-sign to remain with the team by 2030.
7. Milwaukee Bucks, 2030
- Currently owned by: Portland Trail Blazers
- Protections: N/A
- Type: Swapped
The 2030 draft pick from the Bucks is more appealing than its 2028 counterpart because it allows for greater flexibility regarding Giannis’s tenure. He might remain longer than anticipated, or even for the entirety of his career, but by 2030, he is likely to be entering a phase of decline. Should the Bucks perform poorly in 2028, it’s likely they will continue to struggle in 2030 due to a lack of“`html
Good chance it’s a significantly higher.
5. Phoenix Suns, 2027
- Currently belongs to: Houston Rockets
- Protections: N/A
- Type: Owed
An important factor to note regarding 2027 for Phoenix is that Kevin Durant’s contract will end after the 2025-26 season. He may either remain with the team in his age-37 season or depart. Regardless, if Phoenix opts against making substantial roster changes, this marks a clear point of decline. The current lineup, under Budenholzer’s leadership, possesses opportunities for winning many regular-season games over the next year or two. However, by the summer of 2026, the roster may either have deteriorated in terms of regular-season performance or its playoff vulnerabilities will have unequivocally been revealed.
4. Milwaukee Bucks, 2027
- Currently belongs to: New Orleans Pelicans
- Protections: N/A
- Type: Owed
As previously discussed, the summer of 2026 serves as the unofficial pivot point for Antetokounmpo. By that time, we will know whether he intends to stay. Should he move, this is likely when it would occur. If a trade happens, the return package will probably be centered around draft picks that won’t manifest benefits in time for the 2027 draft. Both Middleton and Lopez will be entering free agency by this stage, leading to a scenario where the 2027 Bucks could be led by a 36-year-old Lillard and… who knows what else.
3. Los Angeles Clippers, 2028
- Currently belongs to: Philadelphia 76ers
- Protections: N/A
- Type: Owed
This is the most favorable of the owed Clippers picks. It is the first selection to occur after the termination of Leonard’s current contract. Zubac is the only player currently secured for the 2027-28 season. This provides ample cap space for a Los Angeles team to maneuver. Historically, the star-laden 2027 free-agent class could have served as a crucial opportunity for this team. But until we witness a revival of free agency as a method for star relocation, assuming it will return is premature. Doncic is the top player expected to be available in 2027 free agency, but should he decide to leave, recent trends indicate that it would likely occur via trade rather than free agency. The new CBA’s salary restrictions during trades might encourage certain stars to collaborate through free agency, but it remains too soon in this cycle to make any definitive assumptions. For now, the Clippers appear to lack significant prospects for the 2027-28 season. This situation could change, yet considering the numerous picks they’ve already utilized, overcoming these challenges will be demanding.
2. Phoenix Suns, 2029
- Currently belongs to: Houston Rockets or Brooklyn Nets
- Protections: N/A
- Type: Owed
1. Milwaukee Bucks, 2029
- Currently belongs to: Portland Trail Blazers or Washington Wizards
- Protections: N/A
- Type: Owed
We are grouping the top two positions together to address a straightforward question: why have I persistently rated the Milwaukee picks higher than the Phoenix picks? The“`html
Both for salary and roster size considerations, there are feasible options involving Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, and draft assets. The crucial point here is that Durant remains valuable enough to command a substantial trade package. The Suns could reorganize their roster around Devin Booker and continue to be competitive in the future.
Finding a similar path for the Bucks is considerably more challenging. Could they potentially trade Lillard to the Heat? Perhaps, but it’s important to recall that Miami didn’t offer Portland an adequate package to warrant serious negotiations last year, and Lillard’s market value has diminished significantly since then. A deal involving Tyler Herro and a few draft picks wouldn’t be sufficient to salvage the Bucks’ situation. This offseason, Milwaukee explored trades involving Lopez. Had a favorable offer existed, they would have pursued it. Middleton has had an average of around 30 missed games per season since the team clinched the title in 2021. Although he can still contribute to almost any contender, he poses too much risk to fetch a strong trade return.
This iteration of the Bucks might compete for another two or three years, but this season could potentially be the last. It may already be over. Regardless of when this team’s journey concludes, it is coming to an end. There are no quick fixes unless they find a star in the second round of the draft or take a substantial gamble on a high-risk premium talent. Their roster is aging, they lack draft picks, and they are financially burdened. The only genuine hope the Bucks have to avoid disaster by the end of the decade relies on Antetokounmpo’s loyalty. Is that feasible? Of course, as he has yet to leave, and all indications suggest he values Milwaukee. However, he has made it clear that he doesn’t want to play for a team that cannot win, and the Bucks are likely to become that type of team in the not-so-distant future. Therefore, either he changes his perspective, or the Bucks’ picks will transform into some of the most valuable outstanding draft assets in the NBA.
Another aspect worth mentioning regarding the Bucks’ picks is their linkage to those originating from Boston (ranked No. 32 on this list) and Portland (ranked No. 34 on this list). As discussed in those sections, the Wizards acquire the second-most favorable of those three picks, while the Blazers receive the best and the worst. This condition could be viewed as diminishing the overall value of the Bucks’ pick. If the Bucks perform poorly in 2029, Portland is assured a high pick. Yet, if the Bucks struggle in 2029 and either the Blazers or Celtics falter as well, Portland might end up sending a very good pick to Washington, even while retaining a stronger one. This scenario does carry substantial value. Nonetheless, it’s a value I opted to take into account when ranking Portland’s 2029 pick. Regardless, the Portland Trail Blazers will secure an excellent pick if the 2029 Bucks perform poorly. Washington might also stand to gain, but when assessing the true worth of the owed picks, Milwaukee’s 2029 pick is, in isolation, the most advantageous available.
Final Note
We intentionally excluded two picks from the list because, though they were traded, they were traded back to their original team. These picks belong to the 2025 and 2026 Brooklyn Nets. Nevertheless, they warrant discussion as they reflect several crucial philosophical changes within the league.
To regain those selections, the Nets effectively traded four picks: No. 53, No. 26, No. 5, and No. 2 on
“We had no clear route to victory and needed to trade our top player while we still had the chance.” Reports indicate that Bridges not only sought a trade but specifically requested to join the Knicks. This implies that his presence would have created tension had the Nets retained him. Frankly, even if that tension didn’t occur, it would have been irresponsible for the Nets to pass on this trade given their situation. They managed to convert a non-All-Star into five unprotected draft picks from the Knicks. This wasn’t just a trade offer; it was an escape plan. The Nets were at a standstill, while the Knicks presented an opportunity for redemption. I find it hard to believe they would have refused that offer, regardless of the status of the Houston trade.
This perspective led me to assign a poor grade to the Rockets for the trade. Under those circumstances, I would have positioned these two Nets picks at the forefront of this assessment (though in hindsight, my evaluation of the Rockets may be slightly more lenient). It appears that the Nets are likely to rank among the bottom four or five teams in the NBA over the coming two seasons. Acquiring those unprotected picks could yield a significant advantage, akin to the Brown-and-Tatum dynamic. I acknowledge that my views clash with the prevailing narratives. Additionally, it’s important to note that I am sharing this list in September, when our insight into team dynamics is significantly clearer than it was in June when this information emerged.
The Rockets might have hesitated in response to Brooklyn’s warning about retaining Bridges, and they certainly appreciated the notion of transforming two draft picks into four. However, another key reason behind their decision to execute this trade was their interest in acquiring either Kevin Durant or Devin Booker in the near future. By securing Phoenix’s draft picks, the Rockets position themselves advantageously if those players become available. Essentially, the Rockets hold the keys to Phoenix’s ability to pursue a losing strategy, allowing them to leverage those picks back to the Suns. Eventually, the Suns will come to terms with their lack of a direct path to championship success. When that moment occurs, the Rockets could inform them that their only viable reconstruction option would involve parting with one or both of their star players.
In a sense, the Rockets executed a similar strategy against the Nets. Brooklyn required its draft picks to begin their rebuilding process, and the Rockets provided those picks in exchange for selections they viewed as superior. Nevertheless, as more picks across the league are controlled by different teams than their original owners, it raises the question of whether other franchises will aspire to replicate the Rockets’ approach. For instance, if one aims to trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo, would they first negotiate with Portland to acquire Milwaukee’s picks in that endeavor? Could the Bucks leverage the potential of attempting to remain competitive to diminish the value of their future picks in negotiations, similar to the tactics employed by the Nets?
What has become unmistakably evident in this era of traded picks is that none are as valuable as your original selections. The Nets-Rockets-Suns saga illustrates the innovative ways this value can be utilized strategically, and this will shape the actual worth of many of these picks in the future.
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Ranking the Value of Every Traded NBA First-Round Pick Entering 2024: A Comprehensive Breakdown
Understanding the Value of NBA First-Round Picks
As the 2024 NBA season approaches, the importance of first-round picks in trades has never been more pronounced. This article will delve into the value of every traded first-round pick, highlighting their implications on team strategies, future assets, and overall league dynamics.
Why Do First-Round Picks Matter?
- Talent Acquisition: First-round picks are often used to acquire elite talent, essential for building championship-caliber rosters.
- Asset Flexibility: Picks provide teams with flexibility in trades, allowing them to acquire established players or additional picks.
- Rebuilding Strategies: Teams in a rebuild phase rely heavily on first-round picks to draft young prospects who can grow with the franchise.
Traded First-Round Picks: A Breakdown
Team Traded Pick Original Owner Value Ranking Los Angeles Lakers 2024 1st Round New Orleans Pelicans 1 Miami Heat 2025 1st Round Philadelphia 76ers 2 Boston Celtics 2026 1st Round Brooklyn Nets 3 Golden State Warriors 2024 1st Round Detroit Pistons 4 Chicago Bulls 2027 1st Round San Antonio Spurs 5 Factors Influencing Pick Value
Assessing the value of traded first-round picks involves various factors, including team performance, player potential, and market dynamics. Here are some critical elements influencing the value:
1. Team Performance
Teams with high win totals tend to have less valuable picks, as their position in the draft board decreases. Conversely, teams struggling to win games often possess higher-value picks.
2. Draft Class Strength
The depth and talent of the draft class play a significant role. A strong class can elevate the value of all first-round picks, while a weaker class diminishes their allure.
3. Player Development Potential
Scouts and analysts often evaluate the potential of incoming prospects. The higher the perceived ceiling of the draft class, the more valuable the picks become.
4. Trade Demand
As teams look to consolidate their rosters or build for the future, the demand for picks can fluctuate. This demand can elevate the perceived value of picks significantly.
Case Studies: Notable Trades Involving First-Round Picks
Los Angeles Lakers and the Pelicans
The Lakers’ acquisition of the 2024 first-round pick from the Pelicans stands out. With Bronny James in the draft, this pick is viewed as incredibly valuable, not just for the potential talent but for the Lakers’ branding and fan engagement.
Miami Heat and the 76ers
Another significant trade was between the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers, where the Heat acquired the 2025 first-round pick. This trade is crucial as it enhances the Heat’s chances at securing top prospects in a highly competitive Eastern Conference.
Benefits of Understanding Pick Values
Being aware of the value of traded first-round picks can offer fans, analysts, and teams several advantages:
- Informed Fan Engagement: Fans can engage more deeply with their teams’ strategies and decisions, understanding why certain moves are made.
- Enhanced Strategic Planning: Teams can create better long-term strategies by understanding how to leverage their picks effectively.
- Improved Trade Negotiation: Knowledge of pick values can empower teams during trade negotiations, allowing them to make smarter deals.
Practical Tips for Evaluating Pick Value
If you’re looking to assess the value of traded first-round picks, here are some practical tips:
- Follow Draft Projections: Keep up with upcoming drafts and player projections to understand which teams may be more motivated to trade picks.
- Analyze Team Strategies: Look at each team’s current roster and future goals to gauge how they might utilize their picks.
- Watch for Rumors: Trade rumors during the season can indicate which picks may be available and their potential value.
First-Hand Experiences from Analysts
Many analysts have shared insights on their experiences with evaluating pick values:
“The unpredictability of the draft makes valuing picks both exciting and challenging. You never know which player will become a superstar or a bust.” – NBA Analyst
Conclusion
the value of traded NBA first-round picks is a complex and dynamic aspect of the league. By understanding the factors influencing this value and keeping abreast of trends, fans and teams alike can engage more meaningfully with the game. Whether you’re a fan, analyst, or team executive, recognizing these nuances will enhance your appreciation and strategic outlook on the NBA draft landscape.
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At this stage, three of the four Villanova Knicks remain under contract, and the fourth player, Mikal Bridges, is anticipated to sign an extension in the future. New York is still in a solid position currently, but considering the Knicks have surrendered numerous high draft picks before, there’s always a risk they could mishandle this situation while the Nets could benefit significantly.
35. Minnesota Timberwolves, 2027
When ranking the 2025 picks, the New York choice took precedence over Minnesota’s. We have now reversed their positions for 2027 due to the two-year second apron window discussed in other articles. Essentially, this is the year that Minnesota needs to start reducing payroll, rendering the Timberwolves less appealing compared to the Knicks at this moment.
This pick is one of the most intriguing outstanding selections in the NBA. We have analyzed “least favorable” picks earlier, but this is the only situation concerning a “second-most favorable” pick, which offers a greater upside. This means that only two out of the three teams involved need to underperform, and there remains a five-year window for trading based on team reputation. As discussed later, one of the 2029 picks involved is rated very highly, adding significant value. Hypothetically, if the 2029 Bucks pick, which we will examine later, ends up at No. 4 the Wizards could find themselves in a position where they either receive a top-four pick or the more favorable option of two picks that might also be as high as No. 5. Obviously, that represents a very enticing asset. However, we are still five years away from clarity. Without a clearer picture of Milwaukee’s future trajectory, we can’t definitively place a ceiling on this pick’s value. For now, the potential is slightly constrained because it cannot be the most favorable out of the three, and achieving a high pick necessitates that two of these teams perform poorly. One of the teams in question is the reigning champion, while another is among the youngest in the current NBA landscape and is expected to peak toward the decade’s end. Even if one doubts the Bucks (as I will elaborate later), this uncertainty still prevents this pick from ranking higher… for now. Nonetheless, should one of these teams falter in the coming year or two, the situation could markedly improve this pick’s standing in future rankings.
*A previous version of this list incorrectly placed this pick at No. 58 due to misunderstandings regarding the conditions attached.
33. Houston Rockets, 2026
Any lightly protected pick from the
Opting for two additional years of uncertainty over slightly weaker teams is a calculated risk. We briefly discussed this selection two positions earlier concerning the 2029 Blazers pick, and Boston’s current strong performance diminishes the value of that selection. If we assume that Tatum and Brown remain with the team and continue to excel, then Boston’s pick is likely to fall toward the end of the first round. Consequently, Washington may find itself with the least favorable pick between Milwaukee and Portland. By retaining the most advantageous pick of that trio, Portland stands to gain the most if the Tatum-Brown partnership has been dissolved by then. Therefore, in isolation, this pick surpasses Portland’s, even if one would typically anticipate the Celtics performing better than the Blazers by 2029.
Ranking this pick proves to be quite challenging. One could argue it should be positioned 15 spots lower due to the lottery protection and Miami’s management acumen. However, the Heat has struggled as a Play-In team for two consecutive years and has lost significant depth to free agency. Most betting markets place them around seventh or eighth in the Eastern Conference. It is not out of the question for them to miss the playoffs, which would render this pick unprotected in 2026, a significant consideration given Jimmy Butler’s intentions for a major contract in the 2025 free agency. Even if the Heat do make the postseason, their recent first-round picks were No. 15 and No. 18, indicating a solid selection if their recent performances persist. This scenario resembles the 2025 Kings pick but comes with greater potential.
30. Cleveland Cavaliers, 2027
The Cavaliers possess a younger roster compared to other teams we have analyzed for 2027; however, there is considerable uncertainty here. Donovan Mitchell’s recent contract extension does not guarantee his long-term presence, as he has a player option for the 2027-28 season. This year will essentially serve as his contract year. If Cleveland fails to make notable progress towards championship contention by that time, the rumors surrounding Mitchell are likely to resurface. This speculation doesn’t even consider any moves Cleveland may need to make to keep him satisfied. If the Cavaliers disappoint again in the playoffs, retaining both Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen becomes improbable. Evan Mobley seems to be the only core player likely safe for the 2026-27 season. They will acquire assets for any players they trade, but this uncertainty can diminish the pick’s value in the future market.
If the Hawks eventually trade Trae Young, their unprotected picks would significantly rise in value. Nevertheless, in a bottom-heavy Eastern Conference, Young serves as an essential floor-raiser, helping to maintain Atlanta’s position within Play-In contention. This intrinsic value matters, but since it’s a swap—given the Spurs’ patient approach to building their roster around Wembanyama—it is unlikely they will be drafting low enough by 2026 for this exchange to catapult them up by 10 or 15 picks. A slight upward move holds significance, especially if it takes place in the top half of the first round. However, assuming Young remains healthy, this“`html
know what they’re doing while the Bulls are lacking direction.
This season marks Kawhi Leonard’s age-35 year. The Clippers currently have only three players under guaranteed contracts for the 2026-27 season: Leonard, Derrick Jones Jr., and Ivica Zubac. Although they could utilize cap space in the summer of 2026 to reconfigure the team, substantial player movements via free agency are increasingly rare. The Clippers lack both draft picks and young players to trade, and presently, the trade value of their veterans remains uncertain. That top-five protection plays a crucial role here, yet it certainly appears that the Thunder could transform a very late 2027 pick into a relatively valuable asset through this exchange.
26. Dallas Mavericks, 2029
When I ranked these picks a year ago, this selection was placed at No. 3. So what has changed? Quite a bit. A year ago, there was genuine concern that 2024 might be Luka Doncic’s last season in Dallas. Since then, they have successfully drafted a lottery prospect (Dereck Lively), acquired two ideal supporting players (P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford), and have managed to keep the Kyrie Irving situation relatively calm over the past year. The franchise transitioned from the lottery to the Finals. While there’s reasonable doubt about the future—Irving may not perform at his peak in 2029, and Doncic’s contract status is in flux—the Mavericks have an optimistic outlook for the next five years. This pick still possesses potential, but it no longer holds the same allure it once did a year ago.
25. Minnesota Timberwolves, 2030
I elaborated on this swap in more detail here and here, but to summarize its significance: it revolves around the inherent uncertainty associated with it. This pick is situated after Anthony Edwards’ ninth season, during which he is not even under contract. If all goes according to plan for Minnesota, the Timberwolves are likely to contend for championships in the interim. However, several questions arise: What if Rob Dillingham fails to develop? What if they can’t make necessary adjustments due to the high salaries of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert? What if the upcoming seasons end in disappointments? This phase in a young superstar’s career typically determines their future directions. Should Edwards choose to leave Minnesota, the value of this swap could skyrocket. If, at any point before then, the league perceives that Edwards might depart, the trade value will be significant.
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The potential here is substantial, particularly given the depth of the Western Conference. Even if both Leonard and James Harden remain mostly healthy, this roster lacks the caliber necessary for contention without Paul George. Should either of them sustain an injury—especially considering Leonard’s history of injuries—the potential increases significantly. With the amount of defensive talent present, it’s reasonable to expect that the Clippers may find themselves in the lower half of the lottery, although this still represents a notable improvement over where Oklahoma City may end up.
This pick exemplifies a classic “high risk, high reward” scenario. Betting against the Lakers is generally sound advice. By that time, LeBron James will likely be retired, and Anthony Davis is both aging and frequently injured. There’s no clear strategy from this front office. However, the situation allows for a singular outcome: you either secure the pick in 2027 or lose it altogether. This year is primed for “Lakers rebuilding,” but even if they don’t actively choose to struggle, there are ample reasons to believe they might falter regardless. Concerns have surfaced that the Lakers could be poor enough to secure a top-four position, leaving you empty-handed. Between 2015 and 2017, they owed a top-four protected pick from the Steve Nash trade, which was the second overall pick for three consecutive years. Once the pick became unprotected in 2018, it fell to No. 10, resulting in the Orlando Magic receiving nothing from the Lakers as the seven-year window had passed. Certainly, take a chance on the Lakers being bad, but the prospect of them actually relinquishing a protected pick is historically more precarious.
21. Cleveland Cavaliers, 2029
The uncertainties surrounding Cleveland for 2029 remain very much in effect, but for the first time, an unprotected Cavaliers pick is surpassed by those belonging to the Knicks and Timberwolves in the same year, owing to their youth. It is slightly more probable that the Knicks and Timberwolves will either age or implode by 2029 compared to the Cavaliers. Cleveland boasts a number of talented young players, making it difficult to envision a significant drop to the bottom tier of the standings by decade’s end.
20. New York Knicks, 2029
During the 21st century, the Knicks have traded away a No. 2 pick (LaMarcus Aldridge), a No. 8 pick (Joakim Noah), a No. 9 pick (Gordon Hayward), a No. 12 pick (Dario Saric), and a No. 7 pick (Jamal Murray). While the Knicks are undoubtedly a more astute organization now, past trends suggest that betting against James Dolan tends to yield favorable results. This point in New York’s projected“`html
By this time, it is nearly certain that the Leonard/Harden era will have ended. However, due to the numerous first-round picks owed to other teams, the Clippers will face significant challenges in constructing a new roster to take its place. The attraction of Los Angeles combined with the top-three protections limits the potential value, making it highly unlikely that the Clippers will be competitive in 2029 without an extraordinarily unexpected trade or free agent acquisition.
17. Minnesota Timberwolves, 2031
This pick from the Timberwolves ranks as the most valuable of those owed for all the reasons discussed earlier. Its value mirrors that of the 2030 swap, but it stands as an unprotected outright pick.
16. New York Knicks, 2031
The Knicks barely surpass the Timberwolves in the race for the 2031 pick, primarily due to the age factor. It is somewhat easier to envision the Timberwolves succeeding with their current players by 2031; Brunson will be 35 at that time.
15. Sacramento Kings, 2031
A gentle reminder: the Kings have been lottery participants in 18 of the last 19 NBA Drafts. They consistently top any list of teams you would want to bet against over an extended timeframe. It is uncertain where the Kings will stand in 2031. By then, De’Aaron Fox will be 33, and Domantas Sabonis will be 35. They could potentially be nearing the end of their careers or have already moved on. It’s also possible that they could have transitioned sufficiently to create a new core. Nevertheless, Sacramento’s history suggests a strategy of acquiring as many of their picks as possible. The fact that the Spurs have Wembanyama while the Kings do not further supports my belief that they will utilize this swap.
14. Atlanta Hawks, 2025
All the limitations previously discussed regarding the 2026 Hawks swap apply here. However, there is a major distinction between obtaining the No. 11 pick and swapping for it. This pick will likely land in the lottery, and reliable lottery picks, regardless of their limited potential, are exceedingly valuable.
13. Los Angeles Lakers, 2025
Although the Lakers are superior to the Hawks, they possess significantly greater draft potential. Situated in the Western Conference, they are aging with a rookie head coach, and are nearing the second apron, making roster enhancements via trade complicated. While Atlanta’s median outcome may be superior, the Lakers offer more potential for a dramatic decline.
It’s at this juncture that the value of the Clippers’ picks becomes significantly apparent. Both Leonard and Harden have aged by another year, yet the Clippers find themselves lacking the time, assets, or financial flexibility needed for substantial changes. Teams languishing at the bottom of the Western Conference are likely to improve, while franchises like the Lakers and Warriors possess avenues for enhancing their rosters. Unfortunately, the Clippers do not share this advantage. The most probable outcome here is securing a low lottery pick, though the potential upper limit is substantially higher.
10. Phoenix Suns, 2028
You likely understand why the Suns hold a prominent position on this list; however, for those who remain overly optimistic about Phoenix’s prospects, here’s the breakdown:
Given the current positioning of Phoenix’s picks, their presence at the top of this list is hardly shocking. What may be surprising, however, is the team they are vying against for these prime selections.
9. Milwaukee Bucks, 2028
Now, let’s talk about the Milwaukee Bucks. They stand among two teams boasting four picks in the top 10, though Phoenix overshadowed them at last year’s selections. So, what makes Milwaukee’s future picks so compelling? Here’s an overview:
