In Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season, fans can look forward to a “Monday Night Football” doubleheader featuring two No. 1 NFL draft picks. The first matchup sees Baker Mayfield’s Buccaneers take on the Ravens at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+), followed by Kyler Murray’s Cardinals facing off against the Chargers at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN+).
Having scouted the draft since 1979, I have assessed a total of 46 No. 1 overall picks, ranging from Tom Cousineau to Caleb Williams. Some selections have been remarkable successes, while others have turned out to be significant disappointments, and a few are still solidifying their legacies. But how do they stack up against one another?
To compare each player’s contribution to the team that drafted him, I organized all No. 1 selections from 1979 onward into tiers. Players were categorized from elite to busts; while not strictly a ranking from 1 to 46, I positioned them appropriately within each tier. I made distinct classifications for the four individuals who never played for the teams that selected them, as well as the three most recent top picks, to ensure fairness in evaluation. I incorporated my initial assessments along with the performances observed once these athletes reached the NFL.
Let’s begin with the four standout No. 1 picks since I began my draft coverage.
Jump to a tier:
Elite picks | True stars | Solid starters
Up-and-down careers | Just OK
Disappointments | Asterisks | Too soon to tell
THE ELITE PICKS
The NFL landscape was significantly divided between Manning and Ryan Leaf from Washington State, both receiving identical grades of 9.7 from my analysis. However, I rated Manning as the top quarterback of that class, and it’s clear that the Colts made the right choice. He achieved a Super Bowl championship, five MVP awards, and a spot in the Hall of Fame. With an NFL-ready physique, an underrated arm, and exceptional poise against pass-rushers, he emerged as a phenomenal prospect. It’s not surprising that he ranks third in career passing yards (71,940) and touchdown passes (539) over his 17-season career. In my view, he stands as the best No. 1 pick since I began this assessment.
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
In 1985, I featured two players on the cover of my evaluations book: Smith and guard Bill Fralic. Smith was my clear top pick, earning a perfect grade of 9.9. In my evaluation, I described him as a “ferocious man-eater,” highlighting his competitive nature. With remarkable reach and explosiveness, he consistently disrupted plays all over the field.
A Hall of Famer and eight-time first-team All-Pro, Smith still holds the top spot among No. 1 picks.
in the NFL for career sacks (200).
Aikman, who received a score of 9.6 from me, showcased one of the fastest release times and most precise passing I had encountered in a quarterback prospect at that time. Although there were some underthrows visible on tape, his arm strength was above average. His mobility was another asset. The main drawback was his relative lack of experience.
I noted back then that Aikman was “capable of transforming a losing team into a playoff contender,” and that’s precisely what the Hall of Famer accomplished. The Dallas Cowboys improved from a 3-13 record in 1988 to achieving three Super Bowl victories in the following seven years.
While it’s uncommon for an offensive lineman to be selected first Pace was exceptional as a prospect (9.8 grade) and as an NFL player (seven Pro Bowl selections). His film showed an impressive number of pancake blocks; I recall one game where he had ten. Pace dominated each matchup, proving his durability over a 13-year career, 12 of which were spent in St. Louis. He entered the Hall of Fame in 2016.
THE TRUE STARS
Garrett burst onto the scene after his time at Texas A&M, clocking a 4.64 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, and his bend might be the most impressive I’ve witnessed. On tape, he appeared like a speed skater rounding a turn, almost grazing the ground. Garrett can defeat opponents through either speed or power, and this hasn’t changed over his eight NFL seasons. He consistently looked like a player who would achieve double-digit sacks, and he has delivered with 10 or more in each season since his rookie year, during which he accrued seven.
For those curious how we could rank the Garrett selection so highly amidst the 2017 class that featured Patrick Mahomes, we aren’t applying too much hindsight. The Browns made the correct decision based on the information available at the time, and Garrett has undeniably excelled for them.
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My friend Todd McShay and I often debated the 2009 quarterback class vigorously. I supported Stafford, while Todd favored Mark Sanchez. In this instance, I came out on top (even though he beat me in the Jimmy Clausen/Sam Bradford debate the following year).
I believed Stafford was destined to be a No. 1 pick before he even stepped onto Georgia’s campus. He presented a complete skill set as a prospect, featuring an exceptionally powerful arm. While he needed to depart Detroit to secure his Super Bowl title, he had several impressive seasons with the Lions prior to that 2021 trade, notably the 2011 season when he threw for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns.
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Burrow transformed from a fifth- or sixth-round selection into the consensus No. 1 overall pick after delivering an outstanding final season with LSU. This draft class also featured strong quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and even Jalen Hurts further down the line. However, Burrow stood out as the premier choice. Throughout his college career, he never delivered a subpar performance and was among the most competitive QB prospects I have ever assessed.
In just 58 career games, Burrow has already established himself at a high level. He boasts a completion rate of 68.3%, the highest since 2020, and led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in just his second season.
It’s rare to encounter prospects like Luck. Although some viewed Robert Griffin as the superior player, Luck was my top-rated QB prospect since John Elway (9.8). He entered the NFL with remarkable accuracy, an ideal physique, and excellent processing skills. The expectations surrounding him were immense, yet he possessed the character to manage that pressure. Despite retiring before the 2019 season and missing the entire 2017 season due to a shoulder injury, he showcased his franchise-altering abilities throughout his career, earning four Pro Bowl selections.
On my final Big Board for 2011, cornerback Patrick Peterson and edge rusher Von Miller were at the top, but Newton was the first pick after an impressive last college season at Auburn. He propelled the Tigers to a national championship, showcasing his arm strength and quick release. In my analysis, I pointed out that he needed to improve his pocket management and accuracy, but it was obvious that his potential could benefit an NFL team just as it benefitted Auburn.
By 2015, the dual-threat QB claimed the MVP award and led the Panthers to the Super Bowl.
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Much like Newton did at Auburn, Vick transformed a lackluster Virginia Tech team. Although I noted that he needed to enhance his touch on passing, his dominance was undeniable.
His dual-threat capabilities were phenomenal, and he stood out as the undisputed top prospect in his class (Drew Brees was selected in the second round that year).
During his six seasons in Atlanta, he achieved 71 touchdown passes and ran for 21 additional touchdowns, making it to three Pro Bowls. (Vick faced suspension throughout the 2007-08 seasons due to his involvement in a dogfighting operation but made a comeback with the Eagles in 2009.)
On the day of the 1993 draft, uncertainty lingered surrounding the No. 1 pick, with Bledsoe and Rick Mirer both in contention. The Patriots ultimately made the right choice; Bledsoe held the top spot on my Big Board, while Mirer was ranked 30th.
Bledsoe is a player I admire greatly. His field vision was remarkable, he threw with precision, and his arm strength was arguably the best since Elway’s. His natural athleticism was evident, and although he was somewhat eclipsed in New England by his successor, Bledsoe had several impressive seasons with the Patriots, leading them to their first playoff appearance in nearly ten years in his second season.
Sims only played five seasons in the NFL due to knee injuries, yet he averaged almost 120 scrimmage yards per game during that span. He was incredibly entertaining to watch, possessing all the traits that teams desired in running backs at that time. Sims narrowly surpassed Anthony Munoz in my final rankings for the 1980 class (9.7 grade) due to his explosiveness and agility showcased in Oklahoma’s wishbone offense. His fearlessness also stood out, as he often leapt over defenders to secure pivotal first downs.
Today, it’s rare for a running back to be selected in the top 10, let alone as the first overall pick. However, the Lions made a significant acquisition that year.
Although Carson Wentz had the stronger arm, Goff benefited from competing against better opponents during his evaluation and showcased impressive ball placement at Cal. Given sufficient time, he was capable of dissecting a defense. He ranked fifth on my Big Board, and I noted at the time: “Goff is the most talented passer in this draft class when considering all the necessary tools for success at the position.”
Goff didn’t remain with the Rams for long, as he was traded along with three draft picks to acquire Stafford in 2021. Nevertheless, we must remember that he led the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance in 2018 after throwing 32 touchdowns in the regular season.
I had running back Reggie Bush rated above Williams, and there was considerable debate leading up to the draft regarding whom the Texans should select. While I believed Houston required an offensive playmaker, the presence of Peyton Manning in that division made the acquisition of a defensive star a sensible choice. Williams ultimately validated the selection throughout his career.
At his peak, he was virtually unstoppable. In my evaluations, I compared him to Julius Peppers, and he recorded 14 sacks in his second professional season.
THE SOLID STARTERS
I had linebacker Wilber Marshall ranked higher than Fryar on my board, but both players received an identical 9.7 grade. Fryar was a deserving No. 1 pick that year. He brought strength, explosiveness, and versatility to the field. He concluded his NFL career with
With a total of 12,785 receiving yards and 84 touchdown catches, he maintained an average of 15 yards per catch throughout his 17-season career.
Key Insights for the 2025 NFL Draft
• Early mock drafts: Reid | Yates | Miller
• Kiper’s Big Board | Position rankings
• QB Hot Board | Hunter’s projection
• Projected order | Evaluations | More
The 2008 class lacked any standout players, which led to an offensive tackle being selected first overall. Initially, I believed quarterback Matt Ryan would be the choice. However, the Dolphins were enthusiastic about Chad Henne, opting to draft Jake Long with the first pick while hoping to secure Henne in the second round instead of choosing Ryan and then settling for a lesser talent at another position on Day 2. This turned out to be a mistake.
Long developed into an excellent professional. While I had thought he might be better suited as a right tackle coming out of Michigan, he made significant strides as a pass blocker in his senior year. Long ended up starting 99 games in the NFL and was selected to four Pro Bowls during his tenure with Miami.
If one were to design the ideal NFL pocket passer, it would resemble Carson Palmer. He possessed Aikman-like arm strength, underrated mobility, and physical prowess, with virtually no red flags in his evaluation. I noted in my report back then that Palmer excelled against a challenging schedule at USC, where the Trojans faced 11 bowl-caliber teams in his final season. He established himself as a reliable starter in the pros, even throwing 32 touchdown passes in his second year.
Johnson chose to return for another season despite receiving top-10 buzz in 1995, and I vividly recall our conversation at that time. He expressed his desire not just to be a top-10 pick but to be the very first overall selection. After finishing his final season at USC with over 1,200 yards, his dream came true.
In 1996, I awarded Johnson a grade of 9.7, and he graced the cover of my pre-draft book. His size, hands, and ability to create separation made him an immediate threat in the NFL. He achieved at least 800 receiving yards in 10 out of his 11 professional seasons.
Maryland made his mark later on. Although he went unrecognized during high school, he joined Miami weighing 325 pounds but played at a lighter 275 during his time with the Hurricanes. His infectious enthusiasm, strength, quick pursuit, and ability to locate the ball effectively solidified him as a promising prospect. Maryland would bulldoze through offensive lines with his powerful drives.
He contributed to Dallas’s success in three Super Bowls and was a formidable force in the defensive line for a full decade, including five seasons with the Cowboys.
I ranked Murray as the sixth player in the class, and he was the top quarterback according to my list. I saw significant potential for him under Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona. Although Kingsbury is no longer with the team, Murray continues to exhibit the dynamic traits that made him the first overall pick. He currently ranks eighth in QBR this season (65.9), showcasing his underrated skills.
His arm has contributed to a total of 102 touchdown passes and a 66.8% completion rate across six seasons. Known for his running ability, he boasts an average of 6.0 yards per rush throughout his career.
Murray stood out as the top quarterback in the 2019 draft class, and I recall suggesting at that time he ought to send a “thank you” to Russell Wilson. The two shared similarities as prospects, and Wilson’s success in the prior years eased concerns regarding Murray’s 5-foot-10 stature.
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Rogers possessed fullback-level strength at 220 pounds, combined with the speed and agility typical of a tailback. His tape showcased impressive vision, balance, and cutback ability. He effortlessly spun off tacklers and rarely appeared to be driven backward. All these traits culminated in a 9.7 grade. The Saints’ choice to select him first overall yielded immediate dividends, as Rogers led the NFL in rushing during his rookie year with 1,674 yards. Later in his career, he would secure a Super Bowl victory in Washington but ultimately retired after seven seasons due to injuries.
THE UPS AND DOWNS OF CAREERS
In my final 2021 Big Board, I noted, “He can be a superstar.” Lawrence was exceptional at Clemson. However, despite the $275 million contract, we have yet to witness that caliber of performance in the NFL. While I’m not ready to lose hope for him to become a premier quarterback, it is concerning that Lawrence ranks 22nd in QBR since entering the league (51.4). Improvement in Jacksonville’s supporting cast would certainly be beneficial.
There was no doubt Clowney was the top prospect. His explosive bursts toward quarterbacks and running backs in the backfield resembled a cannon shot. In the professional arena, Clowney has proven to be an effective edge rusher, though injuries have hindered his career. He has yet to surpass ten sacks in a season, although 2023 marks his fourth year achieving at least nine. His 22.9% pass rush win rate ranks ninth in the NFL this season.
I supported Josh Allen in the 2018 draft, and the selection of Mayfield at No. 1 certainly took me by surprise. Many expected either Allen or Sam Darnold to be the choice until the last 24 hours before the draft, when rumors suggested Cleveland preferred Mayfield. I had him ranked as my fourth passer in the class and 12th but his skill set indeed aligned well with the Browns’ needs. His toughness was clear, and he had the capability to make every necessary throw.
For a time, he appeared to be the franchise quarterback for the Browns, but injuries and inconsistent performances led to a split. Currently, Mayfield is impressively performing in Tampa Bay.
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THE JUST-OK PICKS
Smith’s performance against Aaron Rodgers was tight, despite Rodgers dropping to No. 24. Weeks before the draft, many analysts still believed Rodgers would be the top selection. He even graced the cover of my scouting report book. However, this was a minor distinction; Smith was ranked sixth while Rodgers secured the seventh spot. Under Urban Meyer at Utah, Smith displayed impressive dual-threat capabilities, complemented by an average arm and exceptional accuracy. Once in San Francisco, he faced numerous offensive coordinators and ultimately was traded as the franchise shifted to Colin Kaepernick.
No one desired the No. 1 pick in 2013. I graded no prospect above 9.4. Geno Smith ranked as my top QB (24th overall), and he was selected in the second round. EJ Manuel was chosen before him, even though he wasn’t in my top 100! Regarding the top pick, it boiled down to either Eric Fisher or tackle Luke Joeckel. Ultimately, the Chiefs had to choose someone. Fisher, standing at 6-foot-7, showcased consistency in his game and dominated during that year’s Senior Bowl. He subsequently started 128 games over nine seasons and was a two-time Pro Bowl selection.
Winston showed early promise in his career, amassing over 4,000 passing yards in his first two seasons. His ability to escape tackles and make strong throws led me to believe he could develop into a capable NFL quarterback. Yet, he failed to advance in Tampa Bay, culminating in the notorious season where he threw 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. He currently serves as the backup for the Browns.
Testaverde enjoyed a lengthy and respectable career, but he struggled to find his footing with the Buccaneers. (Note that we are only considering value based on the drafted team, so his time with the Jets is not accounted for here.) Coming out of Miami, he was large, precise, and instinctive, which is why I rated him with a grade of 9.7. Throughout 21 seasons, he never truly uplifted an NFL roster, yet he proved to be more than capable behind center.
George received my lowest grade of 8.5 for a No. 1 pick. He was placed at No. 81 overall on the Big Board. In retrospect, that might have been too low, as I rated several quarterbacks higher. George possessed a strong arm with a sidearm delivery, exhibiting a playstyle that varied in quality. He maintained a starting position in the NFL for a decade, representing five teams, but remained in Indianapolis for only four years.
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Bradford’s performance never really impressed me. On my draft board, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh was my top choice, while I preferred Jimmy Clausen over Bradford among quarterbacks. Although Clausen turned out to be a bust, Bradford also failed to shine. At Oklahoma, he exhibited decent instincts and accuracy when he had protection, but he faltered under pressure and struggled to take command in the pocket.
Bradford was awarded Offensive Rookie of the Year during his time in St. Louis, yet injuries soon hindered the progress of his career.
THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
Wilkinson, dubbed “Big Daddy,” fell short of expectations in the NFL. He was known for his powerful presence that could disrupt opposing offenses, earning a top prospect status on my board with a grade of 9.8. While he possessed burst, power, and agility, his performance did not reflect the impact typically associated with a top pick. Nevertheless, he proved to be a solid starter for over a decade, amassing 54.5 sacks during his 195-game career.
While Julius Peppers narrowly ranked higher on my board, there was little debate regarding the quarterback hierarchy; Carr placed above Joey Harrington. I often wondered about the opportunities Houston provided Carr. Lacking surrounding talent, he endured 76 sacks as a rookie, making recovery difficult. My pre-draft assessment raised concerns about his low delivery, but his agility and experienced outlook were impressive.
Despite five quarterbacks being selected within the top 11, I ranked two running backs higher: Ricky Williams and Edgerrin James. Couch showcased an incredible performance at Kentucky in a run-and-shoot offense under Hal Mumme, throwing for 8,159 yards and 73 touchdowns over two seasons as a starter. However, injuries derailed his NFL prospects, and he faced challenges making throws that weren’t part of his college experience. His professional career lasted five seasons, ending with a negative touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Sims excelled at pressuring quarterbacks, deflecting passes, stopping the run, and tackling ball carriers. I assigned him a grade of 9.8, and he was widely regarded as the consensus No. 1 pick. Unfortunately, these abilities did not carry over into his NFL career, culminating in just 17 sacks by the end of 1990.
Although I had LaVar Arrington, his Nittany Lions teammate, rated higher, the choice of Cleveland to draft Brown surprised me. While the physical attributes (6-foot-4, 270 pounds, and speed) were evident, I felt he required further development.
The performance was inconsistent. Over six seasons, Brown achieved 19 sacks, failing to align with his physical attributes.
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Bruce turned out to be quite the disappointment. Watching his tape from Auburn reveals his capacity to disrupt an offense’s rhythm. This contributed to my initial 9.5 grade for him. However, in retrospect, his tendency to vanish during crucial phases of games should have served as a warning sign. Although he had the build for an NFL pass rusher, he accumulated just 32 sacks in 151 career games.
This is my worst assessment to date. Emtman was a colossal bust, and I graded him a 9.9! To be fair, many I consulted believed he stood alone in his class, and comparisons to Reggie White circulated. In college, Emtman was nearly impossible to block, showcasing incredible quickness and strength. His college highlights impressed me, as well as the Colts, who selected both the first and second picks that year, focusing on defense (Quentin Coryatt).
Two important points to consider regarding the Emtman selection are:
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Injuries played a significant role in his lack of success. He struggled with knee and back problems from his rookie season onward. Consequently, despite finishing with only five sacks in 18 games across three seasons in Indianapolis (and eight total in six NFL seasons), one can’t help but ponder what might have been.
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Indianapolis didn’t miss out on a star by choosing Emtman. Receiver Jimmy Smith and defensive back Troy Vincent emerged as significant players in the NFL, along with a few others who enjoyed solid careers. However, the 1992 draft class yielded no Hall of Famers.
Carter, another top pick affected by injuries, managed only 319 carries over seven seasons. At Penn State, he was infrequently stopped for a loss, aided by his compact build and skillful hands as a receiver. I assigned him a grade of 9.6, and it’s likely we may not see another running back selected first overall for some time.
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A significant disappointment. Russell was placed fourth on my final assessment board (just behind receiver Calvin Johnson, tackle Joe Thomas, and running back Adrian Peterson), and he ranked as the top quarterback, narrowly surpassing Brady Quinn with a 9.5 grade. At his pro day, everyone recognized his physical capabilities — he could throw 80 yards in the air and perhaps 60 from his knees. Nevertheless, arm strength can be somewhat overrated. Russell had a lengthy and deliberate throwing motion, which might work in college, but he never adjusted to speed it up in the professional league.
In truth, we all neglected the flaws because his potential seemed astonishing. Though there were more reliable prospects in the class, the positional value of quarterbacks and his overall upside propelled him to the No. 1 spot. Russell played for three seasons, achieving a completion rate of 52.1%, with 18 touchdown passes and 23 interceptions.
THE ASTERISKS WHO NEVER PLAYED FOR THEIR TEAM
Manning’s time with the Chargers was brief. It was widely known that he was not interested in playing for San Diego, and within an hour, Giants GM Ernie Accorsi facilitated a trade for him. If we evaluate the player purely based on his accomplishments, regardless of the team, Manning would undoubtedly rank alongside his brother at the highest level. However, we are assessing the pick itself, focusing on the team that made it.
This draft class was strong, with receiver Larry Fitzgerald ranked No. 1 by me, and defensive back Sean Taylor right behind him. Manning was positioned third, while Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers also made the top 10. I admired how Manning elevated the Ole Miss team and noted his exceptional passing skills on tape.
Despite the fact that the Chargers never witnessed Manning play for them, they did secure Rivers as part of the deal. This elevates the Manning pick to the top of the “never-played-for-us” category – at the very least, they acquired a solid starting quarterback. Over his career, Rivers tossed 55 more touchdowns than Manning, but he doesn’t possess the two Super Bowl rings that Eli claims.
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2. Tom Cousineau, LB, Buffalo Bills (1979)
Cousineau chose the CFL when Buffalo drafted him, and upon his return to the NFL a few years later, the Bills traded him to the Browns for three draft selections, including a first-round pick that led to Jim Kelly’s arrival in Buffalo. Thus, not completely a wasted pick. In the 1979 draft — my first year evaluating players — I rated Cousineau as the third-best prospect. He was a tackling powerhouse at Ohio State, and he enjoyed a few effective seasons in Cleveland, highlighted by a four-interception year in 1983.
The best prospect I’ve ever encountered (9.9 grade) and arguably the worst trade in NFL history. Elway was unwilling to play for the Colts, and he had his potential…
Using his baseball career as leverage, Baltimore selected him anyway. They then handed him over to Denver, a decision that significantly influenced the team’s relocation.
Elway had it all. In my final scouting assessment of him in 1983, I noted, ”He has no noticeable weaknesses and is the ideal quarterback. … Undoubtedly, Elway is a surefire All-Pro NFL quarterback with the potential to secure a spot in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.” He was inducted in 2004 following two Super Bowl victories, an MVP award, nine Pro Bowl selections, and achieving 300 touchdown passes. He was the highlight of an exceptional 1983 quarterback draft class that also included Jim Kelly and Dan Marino.
The major difference between the Buccaneers’ selection of Jackson and the other players mentioned here is that Tampa Bay received absolutely nothing in return. No trade; nothing at all. It represents the ultimate wasted draft choice.
At the time, it was uncertain whether he would sign his contract or pursue a career in baseball. Nevertheless, he was the obvious choice. I awarded Jackson a grade of 9.9. He was a franchise-caliber running back boasting tremendous size, speed, and strength. No other contender approached his talent that year. A line from my pre-draft scouting report states: “[Jackson] is a superior prospect compared to Eric Dickerson and could easily set new NFL records previously held by Walter Payton.”
However, none of that holds any weight for Tampa Bay, as Jackson chose to play professional baseball instead. He was later selected in the seventh round by the Raiders in 1987. Although injuries curtailed his NFL career to just four seasons, he displayed remarkable talent, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
THE TOO-SOON-TO-TELL GUYS
Let’s be realistic; we can’t measure Williams against everyone else after just six career games. There’s no doubt that his potential is sky-high, and the Bears made an obvious choice in April (though I believed Justin Fields could succeed with time). I observed Caleb during high school and was thoroughly impressed with how he consistently knew where his receivers were and could accurately deliver the ball to them. In my final report from April, I stated: “Williams is an outstanding playmaker, and his tape is filled with impressive throws … His improvisational abilities are remarkable.” Comparisons to Patrick Mahomes were credible. He was indeed a special prospect.
Early feedback has been positive. His rookie season began slowly, but he threw four touchdown passes in Week 6, bringing Chicago’s record to 4-2.
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I was genuinely surprised that Jacksonville opted for Walker over Aidan Hutchinson. The rumors began circulating during draft week, but I would have unequivocally chosen Hutchinson instead. Walker ranked ninth on my list—his game was still developing. Nonetheless, he is currently showing improvement. After achieving 10 sacks in 2023, he already has five through the first six games this season. Walker is also developing a counter move and demonstrating versatility in his play. Although I would still select Hutchinson, Walker has established himself as a solid player for the J.
ags.
It would be quite challenging to include Young on this list if we were to create an authentic ranking from 1 to 46. His poor performance is undeniable. However, during Year 2, he was yanked from games too quickly, and the Panthers consistently failed to provide him with adequate offensive support. At just 23 years old, the future remains uncertain for him. Is it possible he could reclaim a starting role in Carolina? Might he be traded and get a fresh start elsewhere? Is he finished? While his stats show a struggle — 11 career touchdown passes against 13 interceptions, and a completion rate of less than 60% — it’s premature to make any conclusive assessments about him or this draft choice. This holds true even considering the impressive performance of C.J. Stroud, who was selected second overall last year and is doing well in Houston.
Concerns regarding his size were anticipated. He stands at 5-foot-10 and weighs 204 pounds; however, this isn’t reflective of his playing weight. Historically, smaller quarterbacks have had difficulty succeeding consistently. We appreciated his instincts, composure, and distribution skills leading up to last year’s draft, for which I ranked him No. 2 overall. The final verdict is still pending, but Young’s career has certainly had a difficult beginning.
Ranking the No. 1 NFL Draft Picks: Mel Kiper Jr.’s Comprehensive Evaluation from 1979 to 2024
The NFL Draft is a pivotal event in professional football, where teams select the best college talent to bolster their rosters. Over the years, Mel Kiper Jr. has emerged as a leading analyst, providing insights and evaluations of these young athletes. This article will explore Kiper’s rankings of No. 1 NFL Draft picks from 1979 to 2024, offering a comprehensive look at how these players have fared in their careers.
Understanding Mel Kiper Jr.’s Evaluation Criteria
Mel Kiper Jr. utilizes a variety of criteria to evaluate draft prospects, ensuring that his rankings are both thorough and insightful. Key evaluation factors include:
- Player Statistics: Performance metrics during college play.
- Physical Attributes: Height, weight, strength, and athleticism.
- Position Needs: The specific needs of NFL teams regarding various positions.
- Potential for Development: Projected growth and adaptability to the NFL style of play.
- Game Intelligence: Understanding of plays, strategies, and decision-making skills.
Top No. 1 NFL Draft Picks (1979-2024)
| Year | Player | Position | College | Current Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1979 | Joe Greene | DL | Texas A&M | Hall of Famer |
| 1983 | John Elway | QB | Stanford | Hall of Famer |
| 1998 | Payton Manning | QB | Tennessee | Hall of Famer |
| 2004 | Alex Smith | QB | Utah | Retired |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | QB | Oklahoma | Active |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams | QB | USC | Projected No. 1 Pick |
Noteworthy Case Studies of No. 1 Picks
John Elway: A Game Changer
Selected first overall by the Baltimore Colts in 1983, John Elway’s career is a testament to Kiper’s evaluation skills. Known for his arm strength and mobility, Elway became one of the NFL’s most exciting quarterbacks. He led the Denver Broncos to five Super Bowl appearances and secured two titles, solidifying his legacy as a Hall of Famer.
Payton Manning: The Mastermind
Drafted first overall by the Indianapolis Colts in 1998, Payton Manning was heralded for his intelligence and precision. His ability to read defenses and adjust plays at the line of scrimmage set him apart. With two Super Bowl victories and an array of passing records, Manning is often considered one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.
Baker Mayfield: A Mixed Bag
Selected by the Cleveland Browns in 2018, Baker Mayfield’s career has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows. Kiper praised his competitive nature and leadership skills but raised concerns about consistency. Mayfield’s journey through various teams illustrates the unpredictable nature of the NFL Draft.
Benefits of Understanding Draft Picks
Analyzing the performance of No. 1 NFL Draft picks provides several benefits:
- Informed Fan Engagement: Understanding player trajectories helps fans engage more meaningfully with their teams.
- Fantasy Football Insights: Knowing which players may outperform expectations can be crucial for fantasy football success.
- Team Strategy Awareness: Fans can better appreciate the strategic decisions made by their favorite teams during the draft.
Practical Tips for Following the NFL Draft
To stay informed and make the most of the NFL Draft experience, consider these practical tips:
- Follow Analysts: Engage with analysts like Mel Kiper Jr. through social media and broadcasts for expert insights.
- Watch College Football: Familiarize yourself with college players and their performances leading up to the draft.
- Join Draft Discussions: Participate in online forums and social media groups to share opinions and analyses.
First-Hand Experiences: Fans’ Perspectives
Many NFL fans have unique stories about their experiences during draft day:
- Excitement: “I remember the thrill of watching the draft in 2004 when my team selected Eli Manning!”
- Disappointment: “When the Browns chose Baker Mayfield, I was excited—until I realized he wasn’t consistent.”
Conclusion
Mel Kiper Jr.’s evaluations have helped shape the perception of many No. 1 NFL Draft picks from 1979 to 2024. By examining their careers and understanding the drafting process, fans can engage more deeply with their favorite teams and players. The insights provided by Kiper offer valuable perspectives that resonate throughout the league.
This article is structured to provide a comprehensive overview of Mel Kiper Jr.’s evaluations of the No. 1 NFL Draft picks, enriched with relevant details and SEO practices for enhanced visibility.
