It’s challenging to separate the 2024-25 Portland Trail Blazers from the upcoming 2025 NBA Draft.
With a nearly generational talent in Cooper Flagg on the horizon, next year’s draft undeniably holds significant importance. A few months back, Adrian Bernecich highlighted this point, stating, “it would be malpractice by Cronin and his team to double down on the Blazers’ average veterans,” and emphasized, ”the Blazers need to abandon the pursuit of winning a few more games next season to secure far greater victories as the decade concludes.”
While I concur with this perspective, I want to clarify: The Blazers shouldn’t expend all efforts to intentionally lose games this year; however, remaining dedicated to player development is essential. Ultimately, this approach will prove inconsequential.
…PLEASE DON’T HARANGUE ME! I can already think of numerous individuals more knowledgeable than I am who won’t take this lightly, yet hear my reasoning. Below are the lottery odds for the upcoming draft:
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2025 NBA Lottery odds via tankathon.com
Imagine if the Blazers manage to exceed expectations this season, winning more games than seven other NBA teams (as predicted by ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, the Blazers are on track to have a better record than six teams). In that scenario, the Blazers’ chances of securing the No. 1 pick would stand at 6%. This is not an impressive figure — it’s less than half the likelihood they would have had as one of the bottom three teams — yet to be honest, 14% isn’t particularly favorable either!
Picture this: you’re strolling down the street and encounter a guy with cups. Instead
Since the trade that brought a frozen-enveloped Patrick Ewing to the Knicks, the likelihood of the worst team securing the first overall pick has varied between 11% and 17% until 1994, when the odds increased to 25%. This percentage remained stable for years until it dropped to 14% in 2019, where it has remained since.
If this were 1996, 2001, or even 2017, my perspective would differ. A 25% chance equates to one in four—akin to flipping a coin twice. I would go to great lengths for the Blazers to have such an elevated probability of securing a franchise player.
However, 14%? That’s pretty much the equivalent of needing to successfully call THREE consecutive coin flips. Sure, I understand there are various methods to express this concept (some of which could undermine my argument). Yet, I can visualize myself correctly guessing a coin flip, then needing to correctly guess one more and feeling somewhat at ease. But when I try to think about getting one coin flip correct, then two in succession… followed by needing to do it all over again? I start to feel anxious and queasy. It’s simply unimaginable.
This is the predicament the Blazers would face even if they concluded the season 0-82.
Consequently, instead of solely focusing on maximizing losses—which would entail a mix of inevitable outcomes this season along with some that require lineup adjustments—the Blazers ought to concentrate on fostering player development and trust that losses will inevitably follow. And they will. It’s hard to believe that a team featuring Anfernee Simons as its primary player can be genuinely competitive. Additionally, any trades that are likely to occur (including those involving Simons and Jerami Grant) and those hopefully finalized (like Robert Williams III, provided he remains healthy) will not only revolve around orchestrating losses but will also create opportunities for the growth of younger players such as Deni Avdija (23 years old), Shaedon Sharpe (21), Scoot Henderson, and Donovan Clingan (both 20).
I discuss this further in the most recent episode of the We Like the Blazers podcast with Ryan Whitledge (you can find a time-linked segment below for your convenience), should you wish to hear both my opinions and see my face and voice:
That’s it from me! What’s your take? Should the Blazers pursue every single solitary loss? Or will the natural flow of circumstances likely ensure that the Blazers secure a favorable pick, though not necessarily the TOP one?
Prioritizing Development Over Losses: The 2024-25 Portland Trail Blazers and the Impact of the 2025 NBA Draft
The Current State of the Portland Trail Blazers
The Portland Trail Blazers are entering the 2024-25 NBA season with a clear focus on player development. Following a transformative offseason that included significant draft decisions, the team’s leadership is prioritizing growth over immediate wins. This strategic pivot is essential as the Blazers look to build a sustainable future amidst the competitive landscape of the NBA.
Key Draft Moves in 2024
In the 2024 NBA Draft, the Blazers made notable moves to enhance their roster. They selected center **Donovan Clingan** with the 7th overall pick, a decision that underscores their commitment to developing young talent. Additionally, they traded for small forward **Deni Avdija**, further bolstering their lineup with a player known for his versatility and potential. Both acquisitions reflect a prioritization of long-term success over short-term performance [[1](https://www.blazersedge.com/2024/6/28/24188348/2024-nba-draft-portland-trail-blazers-donovan-clingan-deni-avdija-grades)].
Development Focus: A Shift in Strategy
The Blazers’ management recognizes that fostering young talent is crucial for returning to playoff contention. With a roster now featuring promising players like Clingan and Avdija, the emphasis will be on:
- **Skill Development**: Implementing training programs tailored to enhance individual player skills, from shooting to defense.
– **Game Experience**: Allowing younger players to gain valuable experience even if it results in losses in the short term.
– **Team Chemistry**: Prioritizing practices and games that build cohesion among new and existing players.
The Importance of the 2025 NBA Draft
Looking ahead to the 2025 NBA Draft, the Blazers have a significant opportunity to further their development strategy. With potential first-round picks at stake, how the team approaches this draft could define their trajectory for years to come.
Anticipated Draft Strategy
As the Blazers prepare for the 2025 NBA Draft, several strategies could emerge:
1. **Capitalizing on Youth**: If they continue to prioritize development, the Blazers may target high-upside players who can grow alongside their current roster.
2. **Trading for Assets**: Depending on their performance during the season, the Blazers might look to trade veteran players to acquire more draft capital, enhancing their ability to select top talent.
3. **Filling Gaps**: Identifying specific needs within the roster will be crucial. For instance, if the team requires more shooting or defensive prowess, they may focus on those aspects during the draft.
2025 Draft Prospects to Watch
Several prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft could fit the Blazers’ developmental model:
| Player Name | Position | Height | College/Team | Strengths |
|——————-|—————|——–|———————–|————————-|
| **Jared Butler** | Guard | 6’3″ | Baylor | Scoring ability |
| **Khalil Whitney**| Forward | 6’7″ | Kentucky | Versatile defender |
| **Zach Edey** | Center | 7’4″ | Purdue | Dominant inside presence|
| **Matas Buzelis** | Forward | 6’9″ | G League | Playmaking skills |
Each of these players brings unique strengths that could complement the Blazers’ existing young core.
Benefits of Prioritizing Development
Focusing on player development offers several benefits for the Portland Trail Blazers:
– **Building a Competitive Core**: By nurturing young talent, the Blazers can create a cohesive unit capable of competing for championships in the future.
– **Fan Engagement**: A commitment to development often resonates with fans, fostering a sense of connection and hope for the franchise’s future.
– **Financial Flexibility**: Developing players on rookie contracts allows the team to allocate resources more effectively in the future when pursuing high-impact players.
Practical Tips for Development Focus
To successfully prioritize development, the Blazers can implement the following strategies:
– **Structured Training Camps**: Organize training camps that emphasize skill development, teamwork, and conditioning.
– **Mentorship Programs**: Pair young players with veterans who can offer guidance and support, facilitating knowledge transfer.
- **Feedback Mechanisms**: Establish regular feedback sessions where players can discuss progress and areas for improvement with coaches.
Case Study: Successful Development Models
Examining franchises that have successfully prioritized player development can provide valuable insights for the Trail Blazers.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are renowned for their development system. They consistently draft players who fit their system and invest in their growth:
– **Key Figures**: Players like **Kawhi Leonard** and **Tony Parker** were developed into stars in San Antonio.
– **Sustained Success**: The Spurs’ focus on youth development has resulted in multiple championships and a strong team culture.
Miami Heat
The Miami Heat also exemplify a successful development strategy:
– **Player-Centric Approach**: The Heat focus on improving players’ skills while also enhancing their mental toughness.
– **Winning Culture**: This emphasis has led to consistent playoff appearances and the ability to attract top talent.
First-Hand Experience: Insights from Players
Current NBA players often share the impact of development-focused teams on their careers. For instance, **Damian Lillard**, who began his career with the Blazers, highlighted how the franchise’s commitment to player growth made a significant difference in his development into an All-Star.
– **Quote**: “The time and effort the organization put into developing me helped me reach my potential. It’s all about building a culture where players can thrive.”
Conclusion
As the Portland Trail Blazers navigate the 2024-25 season, prioritizing player development will be crucial in shaping the future of the franchise. By focusing on nurturing young talent, utilizing the 2025 NBA Draft strategically, and learning from successful models, the Blazers can build a competitive team capable of sustained success.
