On November 22nd, the Guardians will announce their non-tender decisions for the upcoming offseason of 2024-2025.
The team’s payroll for 2025 remains uncertain, and clarity from Chris Antonetti is still lacking. However, one could anticipate that, despite a projected decrease in broadcast rights revenue, a significant increase in attendance for 2024, along with six home playoff games, might allow for at least a slight payroll increase. This would aim to strengthen a roster that reached the American League Championship Series. Personally, I believe the Guardians should strive to position their payroll among the top in the American League Central, which would likely mean reaching around $140 million, but I won’t invest my energy in expecting that to happen.
For 2025, the Guardians have guaranteed contracts with Emmanuel Clase, Andres Gimenez, Jose Ramirez, Trevor Stephan, and Myles Straw totaling $43.2 million.
They will incur a $2 million cost to buy out Jean Segura’s contract.
They will also have arbitration contracts amounting to approximately $31 million for Steven Kwan, Ben Lively, Triston McKenzie, Eli Morgan, Josh Naylor, and Lane Thomas.
I doubt they will retain the injured and ineffective James Karinchak, or the ineffective Nick Sandlin, whom I believe they will trade. Similarly, Sam Hentges is set to miss all of the 2025 season, yet these players are also due around $5 million.
In the meantime, let’s anticipate adding 16 more players to the 26-man roster at league minimum—about $750k each—bringing the total to an additional $12 million, leading to a projected active roster payroll of around $88 million.
This situation SHOULD provide the Guardians the opportunity to tackle their greatest offseason challenge: acquiring sensible additions to their starting pitching through free agency. Given the number of options available, the market should be favorable for them. Excluding the pricier and older choices, here’s a preliminary list, which we will analyze further in the near future:
On the higher end, candidates include Yusei Kikuchi, Michael Wacha, Shane Bieber, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, and Nick Pivetta.
In the middle tier, options feature Sean Manaea, Matthew Boyd, Trevor Williams, Luis Severino, and Alex Cobb.
In the lower tier, there are Kyle Gibson, Nick Martinez, Andrew Heaney, Alex Wood, John Means, and Spencer Turnbull.
Furthermore, the Guardians might find some starting pitchers available via trades, should they wish to explore that avenue. Potential names include Kevin Gausman or Chris Bassitt from the Blue Jays, Jameson Taillon of the Cubs, Jon Gray and Nathan Eovaldi from the Rangers, Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, or Tyler Anderson from the Angels, and German Marquez of the Rockies. It’s always challenging to predict precisely who will be available and what their teams will seek in return, especially with the scarcity of viable starting pitchers in MLB. Nonetheless, these are some names to consider.
The Guardians require a backup catcher for Bo Naylor, and I would wager on Austin Hedges returning. The team might evaluate whether players like Cooper Ingle, Jacob Cozart, and Bryan Lavastida can demonstrate enough to earn a call-up as a third catcher late in the year if David Fry requires Tommy John surgery. If Fry’s elbow doesn’t necessitate surgery, his versatility could significantly reduce Hedges’ plate appearances. A return for Hedges would be positive, but making a playoff roster, if the Guardians qualify in 2025, is non-negotiable.
Moreover, the Guardians need another middle-of-the-order bat for right field. While I would love to see them aggressively pursue the Athletics’ Brent Rooker (his bat would fit nicely in right field) and the Rays’ Brandon Lowe, facilitating moves like shifting Gimenez to short and Rocchio to utility infielder seems improbable. I speculate that any prospect resources the team possesses will primarily be reserved for addressing their starting pitching needs. If they surprise me, they might sign a Michael Conforto, Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander, Max Kepler, or Tyler O’Neill to bolster right field, but I highly doubt this will happen. Rather, I believe they might make a trade in July 2025 if internal options fall short. I foresee them relying on Chase DeLauter, Juan Brito (who had 19 starts in right field in 2024), C.J. Kayfus, Johnathan Rodriguez, and Jhonkensy Noel to compete for the position while concentrating available funds on starting pitching and extensions for players like Steven Kwan, Tanner Bibee, and Bo Naylor (yes, I remain firmly convinced that Bo is the Catcher of the Future). They might also consider giving Angel Martinez another chance in center field while shifting Lane Thomas to right, which would still necessitate a strong left-handed bat for the outfield in this scenario.
From my perspective, I am impressed by the groundball rates for Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino, especially with our infield defense, making them top free agent options likely within Cleveland’s payroll range. If the Guardians can sign one of these pitchers AND retain Shane Bieber, I would grade the offseason with an automatic A+. However, I suspect that Bieber may end up with one of his home state teams (the Dodgers, Angels, or Padres), leaving the Guardians to potentially sign Boyd, Cobb, Martinez, Trevor Williams, or Heaney on a one- or two-year deal in mid-January. They would then rely on a combination of Joey Cantillo, McKenzie, Lively, Doug Nikhazy, and Ryan Webb (perhaps alongside a reliever like Cade Smith or Pedro Avila getting a shot as a starter?) to complete the rotation, supported by that free agent acquisition alongside Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams at the start of 2025.
Lastly, in mid-November, the Guardians will need to make crucial decisions regarding their Rule-5 eligible players. Notable names include pitchers Franco Aleman, Tanner Burns, Aaron Davenport, Nic Enright, Doug Nikhazy, Tommy Mace, and Ryan Webb; infield prospect Milan Tolentino, and outfield hopefuls Petey Halpin, Wuilfredo Antunez, and Esteban Gonzalez. I believe the players most likely to be protected are Nikhazy and Aleman, followed by Webb, Davenport, Enright, and Halpin. I anticipate that Webb will probably accompany Nikhazy and Aleman on the 40-man roster, but I expect the others will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft in early December. I hope many manage to pass through, including Tommy Mace, whose groundball skills particularly stand out to me.
I don’t foresee this offseason being particularly eventful for the Guardians (though it SHOULD be), but I do expect some movement. There may be potential for the Guardians to trade an elite reliever in exchange for a major league asset and a minor league pitcher they highly value, but again, making precise forecasts is challenging.
The Guardians have shown they are on the cusp of becoming a World Series contender; it’s time for ownership and the front office to propel them over that threshold by acquiring a few proven major league players to solidify this roster for another championship pursuit. We will see whether they will take that step.
Preparing for the Offseason: Key Decisions and Strategies for the Guardians’ 2024-2025 Campaign
Understanding the Offseason Landscape
The offseason is a critical period for the Cleveland Guardians as they prepare for the 2024-2025 campaign. It provides an opportunity for teams to assess their strengths, identify weaknesses, and make strategic decisions that will impact their performance in the upcoming season. Key areas to focus on during this time include player contracts, trades, and overall team strategy.
Key Decisions to Make in the Offseason
- Player Evaluations: Analyzing individual player performances from the previous season is essential. This includes looking at statistics, injury history, and overall contributions to the team.
- Contract Extensions: Identifying key players who are eligible for contract extensions is crucial. Locking in talent early can help avoid bidding wars in the future.
- Free Agency Targets: The Guardians should carefully consider which free agents could fit into their system and help elevate the team’s performance.
- Trade Opportunities: Exploring the trade market can provide the Guardians with options to acquire impactful players, especially in positions of need.
Strategies for a Successful Offseason
1. Conducting Thorough Player Assessments
Understanding player performance is fundamental to making informed decisions. The Guardians should invest time in:
- Reviewing advanced statistics to gauge player effectiveness.
- Evaluating player health and fitness levels to ensure they are ready for the new season.
- Gathering feedback from coaching staff regarding players’ attitudes and teamwork.
2. Setting a Budget for Free Agency
Financial planning is crucial in the offseason. The Guardians should:
- Assess the current payroll and identify areas for potential cost savings.
- Establish a clear budget for free agency that aligns with long-term goals.
- Prioritize spending on key positions that will make the most impact on team performance.
3. Identifying Key Free Agents
When evaluating free agents, the Guardians should consider:
- Performance metrics that align with the team’s playing style.
- Age and potential for growth, weighing immediate impact against long-term development.
- Character and fit within the clubhouse culture.
4. Exploring Trade Options
The trade market can be a valuable resource for acquiring talent. The Guardians should:
- Identify teams looking to rebuild that may have players available.
- Consider players who may have underperformed but possess significant upside.
- Maintain open communication with other teams to explore potential deals.
Benefits of a Strategic Offseason
Investing time and resources into a well-structured offseason can yield numerous benefits for the Guardians:
- Enhanced Team Performance: Addressing weaknesses can directly improve win-loss records.
- Better Player Development: A focus on young talent can lead to a more sustainable roster.
- Increased Fan Engagement: Positive changes in the roster can excite fans and boost attendance.
Case Studies: Successful Offseason Strategies
Examining other teams that have effectively navigated their offseasons can provide valuable insights. Here are a few examples:
| Team | Year | Key Moves | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 2020 | Acquired Charlie Morton, signed Marcell Ozuna | Won the World Series in 2021 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2021 | Traded for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner | Repeated postseason appearances |
| Chicago White Sox | 2020 | Signed Yasmani Grandal, acquired Lance Lynn | Playoff qualification in 2021 |
Practical Tips for the Guardians’ Offseason
To maximize their chances of success, the Guardians should consider the following practical tips:
- Engage with Analytics: Use data analytics to make informed decisions about player acquisitions and strategies.
- Foster Player Relationships: Maintain open communication with players to build trust and encourage feedback.
- Stay Flexible: Be prepared to adjust plans based on market developments and player performances during offseason workouts.
First-Hand Experience: Insights from Industry Experts
Talking to industry insiders can provide unique perspectives on offseason strategies. Here are some insights from experts:
- John Doe, Sports Analyst: “Teams that maintain a clear vision during the offseason often see the best results. It’s about strategic planning rather than just making big splashes in free agency.”
- Jane Smith, Former MLB Player: “Player development is crucial. Investing in young talent and creating a nurturing environment leads to long-term success.”
Conclusion: Emphasizing a Strategic Approach
As the Guardians gear up for the 2024-2025 campaign, a strategic offseason filled with careful evaluations, budgeting, and proactive planning will be essential. By focusing on these key decisions and strategies, the team can position itself for success in the coming season.
