Qualifying for the playoffs can significantly alter the perception of a baseball team, impacting virtually every aspect. Just look at the 2023 D-backs, for example; they transitioned from a squad with a negative run differential, viewed as unlikely contenders for the playoffs, to an energetic NL pennant winner. Once you secure a playoff spot, anything is possible.
This intensifies the competition for teams aiming to reach the postseason. Securing a spot opens a world of possibilities, but failing to do so raises critical concerns that must be addressed.
Today, we will rank teams that are in the race for the postseason but are not guaranteed a playoff berth, assessing the potential fallout they may face if they fall short. Which teams will have the most pressing questions if they find themselves idle this October?
We will exclude teams with no realistic chances of making the playoffs — such as the Pirates and all teams below them in the NL, as well as the Tigers and teams below them in the AL — along with any teams boasting playoff odds above 85% as of Tuesday, according to FanGraphs. This group includes the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, D-backs, Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Twins, and Astros. Ready? Let’s dive in.
1. Mariners
I apologize for reiterating this, but the Mariners had a 10-game lead in the AL West on June 18, which vanished by July 19. Seattle still maintained a division lead up until August 6, but now they’ve fallen back five games behind the Astros, which is their largest deficit this season. While we have included the Astros in our playoff predictions, the Mariners could still potentially overtake them for their first division title since 2001. The Wild Card remains a possibility as well. However, the expectation was that the Mariners would dominate this division by now, and their chances seem to be slipping away once more. How much longer can their fans endure this? When will a turnaround take place? If not this year, when?
2. Cardinals
Following their first last-place finish in over three decades, the Cardinals recognized the heightened expectations this year, prompting them to revamp their entire rotation during the offseason, notably by signing Sonny Gray. For a time, it seemed like their efforts might pay off: they were a Wild Card contender just a fortnight ago. However, the situation has deteriorated. Veterans like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt appear to be declining rapidly, and the young players they were relying on, such as Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman, have not progressed as anticipated. Team president John Mozeliak has been with the organization for over 30 years and has overseen the front office for nearly two decades. If the Cardinals miss the playoffs again — or even finish in last place — this franchise could undergo significant changes very soon, especially with only one year left on his contract and many unfamiliar empty seats at Busch Stadium. There is turbulence ahead.
3. Giants
This was anticipated to be the breakout year. With the 107-win season in 2021 increasingly looking like an anomaly, the Giants took bold steps during the offseason, acquiring Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, and Jung Hoo Lee. Unfortunately, these moves have not yielded the desired results. While some of these players have had solid seasons, the Giants continue to resemble what they essentially are: a .500 team.
that should maybe be a bit better than what we see now, although not that significantly. Patience among fans in San Francisco is waning, which is one of the key reasons why the Giants made numerous offseason changes. This impatience is only increasing.
4. Cubs
Similar to the Cardinals, the Cubs have been constructed to satisfy an increasingly discontented fanbase as they head into 2024. They hired Craig Counsell as manager, re-signed Cody Bellinger, and added Shota Imanaga. However, the Cubs have struggled to find their rhythm this year, much to the growing frustration of their supporters at Wrigley. One must question how much longer president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer can count on the fans’ patience. There is some promising young talent on the roster, alongside more prospects on the way. Nonetheless, when the organization traded away the stars from the 2016 championship team, Cubs fans were assured that better days were ahead. Those days are still awaited.
5. Red Sox
It might be hard to recall, but at the start of the season, the Red Sox were widely expected to finish last in the AL East. However, they have impressed since the season’s commencement, buoyed by some outstanding starting pitching and breakout performances from Tyler O’Neill, Connor Wong, Jarren Duran, and Wilyer Abreu, along with an MVP-caliber season from Rafael Devers. As a result, they’re firmly in the mix for the AL Wild Card. Typically, a seven-game over .500 record would place them in a better position. Unfortunately, the Royals have disrupted their plans, leaving them 3 1/2 games behind the final AL Wild Card spot as of Wednesday. Boston fans expect their team to make the playoffs annually, so a failure to reach that goal would be disappointing. However, there’s significant potential evident within the younger players. Currently, the only Red Sox regular over 30 is Masataka Yoshida, indicating that the team has been quietly cultivating something promising. Even if they miss the playoffs, they will likely remain competitive next year.
6. Reds
Fans of the Reds are understandably frustrated with the team’s performance. They have not lived up to their run differential, suffer from a tendency to lose close games, and exhibit a troubling habit of collapsing after successful stretches—such as being swept at home by the Royals this past weekend in three consecutive blowouts. Upon examining the rosters of NL Central teams, it certainly feels as though the Reds should be performing better. Yet, this team remains very young and has not yet mastered the art of winning, though the potential for future success is evident. Look at the young talent on this roster—it feels like they could be a favorite in the NL Central by 2025. If they’re in the same position next season, discontent from fans would be warranted. But for now, it appears the Reds are just one year away.
7. Mets
Should the Mets fail to overtake the struggling Braves and enter the playoffs, will fans reflect on the tumultuous 2023 season and recognize that ’24 will represent a significant improvement? Furthermore, the focus has been on ’25 and ’26 as target dates for the franchise’s success. On another note, this could be Pete Alonso’s final year with the team, and Francisco Lindor is enjoying an MVP-caliber season, making it essential to capitalize on that. Nevertheless, it has been enjoyable to witness the development of some young players. This Mets team has been an unexpectedly pleasant surprise—something that rarely occurs in Flushing. Perhaps they should seize the opportunity while there’s still positive momentum.
8. Braves
The Braves were considered one of the
The Braves were considered among the best teams in baseball as the year began, potentially even the best team in the league. In isolation, failing to make the playoffs would appear catastrophic. However, this season has certainly unfolded in a context full of challenges. The injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider significantly altered the landscape this year, and they were not the last setbacks the Braves faced. (Currently, Austin Riley is sidelined for 6-8 weeks.) The season has felt almost cursed right from the outset. Yet, this doesn’t rule out the possibility of the Braves reaching the playoffs — in fact, they are favored to do so – but if Atlanta falters as the season closes, few would fault them for viewing this troublesome year as a sort of mulligan.
