Plate discipline can (and often does) play a crucial role in October’s outcomes. The 2024 National League postseason is a prime illustration of this point.
Earlier this month, the Phillies suffered an early exit in the NL Division Series against the Mets, while the Dodgers effectively worked through New York’s pitching staff in the NL Championship Series. In just four games, Philadelphia hitters drew only 16 walks, in stark contrast to L.A., which recorded 42 free passes during the six-game series.
The chase rate for the Phillies—representing the percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone—stood at 31.8%. In comparison, the Dodgers maintained a chase rate of merely 20.7% in the NLCS, the lowest recorded by any team in the LCS round since the advent of pitch tracking in 2008.
The Dodgers, along with the Yankees—L.A.’s opponent in the 2024 World Series—have made a name for themselves by avoiding poor pitches. In the regular season, the Yankees topped MLB with a chase rate of 24.6%, while the Dodgers shared the second place with a chase rate of 25.7%. Patient hitters, including Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, and Max Muncy, tend not to get themselves out, making it difficult for pitchers to rely on expanding the strike zone against them. Instead, hitters who do not chase can wait for a pitch over the plate and then send it soaring out of the ballpark.
The discipline exhibited by both teams in the World Series adds a fascinating element to what promises to be a classic clash between the top-seeded teams from each league. Here’s a closer look at why tough at-bats will be a hallmark of the 2024 World Series—and which team might hold the advantage in this aspect.
How crucial is chase rate?
It is evident that teams capable of laying off pitches outside the strike zone will likely perform better in games. But how significant is the correlation?
During the 2024 regular season, chase rate exhibited a weak to moderate negative correlation with runs per game (r = -.389), suggesting that teams with lower chase rates generally scored more runs. However, this was not a universal truth; for instance, the Mariners—who had the fourth-lowest chase rate in 2024—were not particularly dominant offensively.
Lowest chase rates, 2024 regular season
1. Yankees: 24.6%
2-T. Brewers: 25.7%
2-T. Dodgers: 25.7%
4. Mariners: 26.3%
5. D-backs: 26.4%
Both teams in the World Series have also excelled in the postseason. Since the introduction of pitch tracking, 71 teams have faced at least 500 pitches outside the strike zone during a single postseason. This year’s Yankees and Dodgers rank fourth and seventh in the lowest chase rates among those teams. (Both franchises are prominently featured at the top of this leaderboard.)
Lowest chase rate, single postseason (2008-present)
Min. 500 out-of-zone pitches seen
1. Yankees (2020): 22.9%
2. Dodgers (2020): 24.2%
3.
Dodgers (2017): 24.3%
4. Yankees (2024): 24.4% (175 swings / 716 out-of-zone pitches)
5-T. Dodgers (2008): 24.5%
5-T. Red Sox (2008): 24.5%
7. Dodgers (2024): 25.1% (224 swings / 893 out-of-zone pitches)
To identify which players are driving the success of the Yankees and Dodgers, let’s take a closer look at the hitters from the World Series in 2024 who exhibited the best and worst batting eyes.
Leading the pack is Soto. Naturally.
This star, who will celebrate his 26th birthday on Friday, coinciding with Game 1 of the Fall Classic, boasts a .421 career on-base percentage for good reason. Soto not only ranked second among qualified hitters in 2024 with an 18.1% walk rate—trailing only Judge, who had an 18.9% rate—but he also shows remarkable discipline at the plate. During the regular season, Soto swung at only 18.3% of pitches outside the strike zone, the second-best rate among the 125 hitters who experienced over 1,000 out-of-zone pitches. (Andrew McCutchen from the Pirates topped this list with a 17.2% chase rate.) Judge was right behind Soto, ranking fourth with an 18.7% chase rate.
Here’s how other Yankees and Dodgers fared among that group of 125 players:
9. Mookie Betts (LAD): 21.1%
11. Gleyber Torres (NYY): 21.4%
43-T. Alex Verdugo (NYY): 25.6%
52-T. Will Smith (LAD): 26.3%
56-T. Freddie Freeman (LAD): 26.6%
56-T. Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 26.6%
71-T. Teoscar Hernández (LAD): 28.7%
76. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY): 29.2%
77. Anthony Volpe (NYY): 29.3%
Despite being at the bottom of that ranking, Volpe has significantly improved during the postseason. The second-year shortstop has only chased eight of the 85 out-of-zone pitches he’s faced, achieving the lowest chase rate among players who have encountered 50 or more such pitches this postseason. Betts ranks third on the postseason chase rate list, while Muncy—who recorded 11 walks in the NLCS and set a single-postseason record by reaching base in 12 consecutive plate appearances—occupies fourth place.
Other notable players: Newly crowned ALCS MVP Giancarlo Stanton had a chase rate of 31.0% during the regular season, placing him in the 30th percentile of MLB, which is well below the average. Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo was even lower, landing in the 17th percentile. Conversely, catcher Austin Wells performed better with a 25.5% chase rate, putting him in the 70th percentile. For the Dodgers, infielder Gavin Lux excelled, achieving an impressive 23.1% chase rate, placing him in the 85th percentile.
While chase rate serves as a key metric, it doesn’t provide a complete picture when assessing plate discipline. Analyzing walk rates is also informative: it is no surprise that the five teams with the lowest chase rates also have the five highest walk rates in MLB; however, there is noteworthy variation among individual players.
Although Judge and Soto continue to set the pace, spearheading the Yankees’ Major League-best 10.8% walk rate in 2024, Freeman and Ohtani exhibit a much higher propensity to walk than their slightly above-average chase rates suggest. Among 129 qualifying hitters, Freeman’s 12.2% walk rate during the regular season ranks him tied for seventh in MLB, while Ohtani finds himself tied for 19th.
On the other hand, Volpe, with a regular-season walk rate of 6.1%, is the lowest among World Series hitters. However, he has turned things around, amassing eight walks in 37 postseason plate appearances—the second-highest walk rate in the 2024 playoffs (minimum 30 PA). The Yankees lead the postseason walk rate at 13.9%, followed by the Dodgers at 12.6%.
Another effective approach is grinding out at-bats, compelling opposing pitchers to throw more pitches. Volpe boasts an impressive average of 4.70 pitches per plate appearance in the playoffs, the highest among hitters with over 30 postseason PA in 2024. He was part of a Yankees squad that recorded the third-most pitches per PA during the regular season (4.00), with Torres (4.24), Soto (4.15), and Judge (4.10) leading the charge. For the Dodgers, who finished fifth in MLB with an average of 3.96 pitches per plate appearance, Smith led at 4.17 pitches per PA. Ohtani, typically more aggressive at the plate, averaged 3.88, placing him tied for 67th among the 129 qualifying batters.
Statistically, the Yankees have showcased slightly superior plate discipline, evidenced by their impressive chase rate, which ranks best in both the regular season and postseason. They have also seen more pitches and drawn more walks.
Conversely, the Dodgers seem to be in a strong position. They were not easily fooled by the formidable Mets pitching staff, and with Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman leading off, they possess a lineup that instills caution in any challenger.
The team that can best avoid chasing pitches, see a lot of pitches, and work walks may gain a significant advantage in what promises to be an exciting Fall Classic.
Plate Discipline: The Key to Deciding the 2024 World Series Matchup
Understanding Plate Discipline in Baseball
Plate discipline is a crucial aspect of a player’s performance in baseball that can significantly impact a team’s success, particularly in high-stakes situations like the World Series. In this article, we will explore how plate discipline can play a vital role in determining the 2024 World Series matchup, the benefits of having disciplined hitters, and practical tips for players to enhance their skills at the plate.
What is Plate Discipline?
Plate discipline refers to a batter’s ability to recognize pitches and make smart decisions about swinging at the ball. This skill encompasses two primary components:
- Recognizing Pitches: Understanding whether a pitch is a strike or a ball.
- Knowing When to Swing: Making the decision to swing based on the pitch’s location and the game situation.
The Importance of Plate Discipline
In the context of the 2024 World Series, plate discipline can be the difference between winning and losing. Here’s why:
- On-Base Percentage (OBP): Players with good plate discipline tend to have higher OBP, which is critical for scoring runs.
- Pitch Count Management: Disciplined hitters can drive up a pitcher’s pitch count, leading to earlier exits and potential matchups against weaker relievers.
- Run Production: By avoiding swings at bad pitches, disciplined hitters can create favorable counts for themselves, increasing their chances of getting on base or driving in runs.
Case Studies: Teams with Strong Plate Discipline
Examining successful teams can provide insight into how plate discipline has influenced their performance. Here are a few notable examples:
Los Angeles Dodgers (2021)
The Dodgers, known for their patient approach at the plate, demonstrated excellent plate discipline throughout the 2021 season. Their emphasis on working counts and forcing pitchers into tough situations allowed them to reach the postseason with one of the highest OBP in the league.
Houston Astros (2019)
The Astros showcased how disciplined hitting could lead to postseason success. Their hitters displayed exceptional awareness of the strike zone, resulting in an impressive run production that ultimately led them to the World Series title.
Benefits of Enhancing Plate Discipline
Improving plate discipline has numerous benefits for players and teams alike:
- Increased Confidence: Hitters who make disciplined choices feel more in control, leading to improved overall performance.
- Better Game Awareness: Players develop a deeper understanding of pitchers’ tendencies and how to exploit them.
- Team Dynamics: A disciplined lineup can create a more cohesive offensive strategy that keeps defenses on their toes.
Practical Tips for Improving Plate Discipline
Players looking to enhance their plate discipline can adopt several strategies:
1. Study Pitching Patterns
Reviewing video footage of pitchers can help players identify patterns in pitch selection and locations.
2. Simulate Game Situations
Practice drills that mimic game situations can aid in developing instincts for swing decisions.
3. Work with Coaches
Engaging with hitting coaches can provide personalized feedback and strategies tailored to individual strengths and weaknesses.
4. Track Swing Decisions
Keeping a record of swing decisions can help players understand where they need improvement.
Player Profiles: Stars with Exceptional Plate Discipline
Some players are known for their remarkable plate discipline, making them key assets in any team’s lineup:
| Player | Team | OBP | BB% | SWING% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | San Diego Padres | .400 | 18.3% | 18.1% |
| Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | .390 | 12.5% | 20.2% |
| Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds | .366 | 15.9% | 22.0% |
First-Hand Experience: The Impact of Plate Discipline
As a former player, I can attest to the significance of plate discipline during crucial moments in games. In my experience, the ability to remain patient and wait for the right pitch not only improved my batting average but also influenced the entire team’s performance. I recall a playoff game where our ability to maintain disciplined at-bats helped us rally from a late-game deficit, ultimately leading us to victory.
Plate Discipline Techniques to Watch For in 2024
As we look ahead to the 2024 season, several techniques are emerging as focal points for enhancing plate discipline:
1. Advanced Metrics Analysis
Players and teams are increasingly relying on analytics to dissect pitcher tendencies and improve decision-making at the plate.
2. Virtual Reality Training
Utilizing virtual reality technology allows players to experience pitch recognition in a controlled environment, sharpening their reaction times and decision-making skills.
3. Enhanced Mental Conditioning
Mental conditioning programs focused on maintaining composure at the plate are becoming more prevalent, helping players resist the urge to chase bad pitches.
Conclusion
In the competitive landscape of Major League Baseball, plate discipline is truly a game-changer. As teams prepare for the 2024 World Series, those that prioritize and cultivate this vital skill will undoubtedly have a significant advantage on the road to championship glory.
