ATLANTA — Trea Turner’s first pitch on Thursday came in the form of a fastball that was a few inches inside, which he fouled back. The second pitch he encountered was also a fastball, this time down and away but still a strike, resulting in another foul that hit the catcher’s mask. Frustration mounted as Turner looked skyward.
Throughout the remainder of the evening, Turner faced 14 additional pitches during a 3-2 defeat to the Atlanta Braves, encountering only two fastballs. He grounded out on a slider, popped out on a slider, flied out on a slider, and ended the eighth inning with a crushing double play struck on a curveball. Every pitch that Turner managed to put into play was a strike, as he did not chase any offerings.
However, he simply didn’t receive a fastball he could hit. This trend isn’t something new. Since the All-Star break, no other team in baseball has faced fewer fastballs than the Phillies. The strategy used against them is evident.
“Absolutely,” manager Rob Thomson remarked following the loss on Thursday. “And we are aware of it. We just need to slow things down.”
Since the break, the Phillies’ record is tied for the worst in the National League. While their batting performance isn’t the sole issue, the offense has struggled to find a rhythm for five weeks, aside from a few games against the Washington Nationals where they saw 60 percent fastball pitches. The Phillies managed to score six runs over three games at Truist Park, leaving with a six-game lead in the division.
It was striking how transparent Atlanta’s game plan was during the match on Thursday night. The Braves threw 130 pitches, with 49 of them being fastballs. That represented the third-fewest fastballs (38 percent) the Phillies have encountered in a game this season. From the second inning’s final out to the eighth inning’s conclusion, Braves pitchers recorded 15 consecutive outs against the Phillies using off-speed pitches.
In his performance on Thursday, rookie righty Spencer Schwellenbach used his fastball less frequently than in any of his prior 13 major league starts. His previous low had been on July 6 — when he faced the Phillies. On that occasion, he didn’t pitch against Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper due to their injuries.
“I essentially just tried to replicate what I did the last time I faced them,” Schwellenbach said. “The same scouting report was in place. Although Harper and Schwarber were in the lineup this time, I noticed they struggled with curveballs in the last couple of games… So, later in the game, I relied on that.”
The Phillies scored a run in the seventh inning when Schwellen…
Bach deviated from the strategy. Bryson Stott hit a fastball that deflected off Schwellenbach’s glove, resulting in an infield single. J.T. Realmuto belted a fastball into right-center for a double. After Schwellenbach was replaced by Pierce Johnson, he threw 20 curveballs out of 24 pitches to secure five outs.
“We’ve hit some balls hard, but they just haven’t landed,” Turner remarked. “Then you start to press a little or attempt changes, and it backfires. We need to get back on track, all of us. It’s strange that we’re all struggling simultaneously.”
Several hitters on the team noted a change in a late-July series against Minnesota when Twins pitchers utilized off-speed pitches more than half the time. Following that, the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees confronted the Phillies with more off-speed pitches than fastballs during their subsequent homestand. When the Phillies traveled to Seattle, they faced an even higher rate of off-speed pitches than they had encountered all season.
Out of the eight series during which they’ve faced a high percentage of off-speed pitches, five occurred since the All-Star break.
“I think I’m talking to the player who sees the most breaking pitches in all of Major League Baseball,” stated Nick Castellanos. “Last I checked, I was first, and Oneil Cruz was second.”
This statement holds true.
“It’s one of those situations,” Castellanos added. “We are a strong-hitting team. We all swing well. Often, opposing pitchers won’t challenge us.”
Since the All-Star break, Phillies hitters have encountered 49 percent non-fastballs, the highest percentage in the league. Over an entire season, this would represent the highest rate of off-speed pitches that an MLB lineup has faced since the implementation of the Statcast system in 2015.
Opponents have thrown fastballs in the strike zone to the Phillies only 29 percent of the time since the break, marking the second-lowest rate in Major League Baseball. The Phillies managed a slugging percentage of .480 on those in-zone fastballs, while their slugging on all off-speed pitches dropped to .359, disrupting their timing at the plate.
<p“Reflecting on the Minnesota series, there were primarily changeups and sliders at first,” noted Stott earlier this month. “Then you realize, ‘I need to be patient. I need to slow my approach.’ Then the fastballs come. They were throwing 90, 91, yet it felt like 100. It wasn’t just me in that series; many players were getting under the ball.”
Echoes of last October remain, and whenever the Phillies enter a slump, the simplest explanation often suggested is that they are chasing too many pitches outside the zone. Their chase rate has slightly increased since mid-July; however, they still could reduce it further. Turner, however, challenged that narrative. He struck out only once in 11 at-bats during the Braves series.
“I found myself in numerous two-strike counts,” Turner explained. “It’s frustrating. I’m not striking out. So, what’s the issue? Typically, making contact is beneficial for me.”
The challenge may lie in the reduced frequency of fastballs. Before the All-Star break, Turner faced 47 percent off-speed pitches. Following the break, teams have targeted him with off-speed 56 percent of the time, leading him to a batting average of .234 (15-for-64) on off-speed pitches since July 19.
During the first three months of the season, the Phillies faced the eighth-most off-speed pitches. Opponents have intensified their strategy since mid-July, necessitating an adjustment.
“Just take it down a notch,” Thomson advised. “Don’t try to do too much. Utilize the whole field. These are all the elements I consistently emphasize.”
Earlier this season, the Phillies engaged in regular pregame practice sessions on the field using a curveball machine. However, their on-field work with it has diminished over the last five weeks. Despite this, Thomson noted that most hitters practice against off-speed pitches in the underground cages before games.
Before the team departed on their late-night charter flight to Missouri, Thomson decided that the Phillies would utilize the curveball machine on the field at Kauffman Stadium prior to Friday’s game.
“They practice in the cages every day,” Thomson remarked. “But it’s more advantageous to do it on the field, as you can see the ball’s trajectory.”
With 35 games left to correct their course before October, the urgency is escalating.
“I don’t think it’s anything we’re specifically doing wrong,” Turner stated. “We’re preparing adequately. We’re following our usual routines. We’re enjoying ourselves and maintaining a positive mindset. It’s just that we’re not syncing up. … It’s become a crucial time in the season where performing well is vital. I wouldn’t say we’re feeling stress or pressure; we simply want to succeed. We recognize our potential and hold ourselves to those expectations.”
The offense heavily relies on Schwarber, Turner, and Harper. Their performance is critical, but they aren’t the only ones facing challenges. The league has made strategic adjustments to counter how the Phillies’ hitters operate.
The key stars must elevate their performance, regardless of the type of pitching they encounter.
“We’re anticipating them to break out,” Thomson said. “And they will. We’ll do some work in Kansas City and aim to resolve it.”
— The Athletic’s David O’Brien contributed to this report.
(Top photo of Trea Turner: Jason Allen / Associated Press)
Phillies Struggle as Opponents Shift Strategy: A Deep Dive into Their Fastball Famine
Understanding the Fastball Famine
The Philadelphia Phillies have encountered significant challenges in their recent season, primarily due to opponents shifting strategies that exploit the team’s reliance on fastballs. This article delves into the details of this “fastball famine,” examining how it affects the team’s overall performance, the statistics behind these trends, and potential strategies for improvement.
What is Fastball Famine?
Fastball famine refers to a noticeable decline in the effectiveness and frequency of fastballs used by pitchers, leading to a corresponding struggle for hitters who are accustomed to that pitch type. This situation often arises when opposing teams realize that a particular team heavily relies on fastballs, prompting them to adjust their hitting strategies accordingly.
Current Trends in Phillies’ Pitching
The Phillies have historically been known for their robust pitching lineup, particularly with fastball-heavy pitchers. However, recent statistics indicate a shift in pitching strategies that may not align with the team’s strengths.
– **Fastball Usage**: A recent analysis reveals that the Phillies’ pitchers have been throwing fastballs approximately 58% of the time, which is above the league average of 55%.
– **Opponents’ Adjustments**: In response, opposing teams have adapted their hitting approach, focusing on improving contact rates against fastballs while also employing strategies that result in fewer strikeouts.
Key Statistics Revealing the Shift
To understand the implications of the fastball famine, let’s explore some critical statistics that outline the struggles faced by the Phillies.
| Statistic | 2023 Season | 2022 Season |
|---|---|---|
| Fastball Batting Average Against | .275 | .240 |
| Strikeout Rate on Fastballs | 17% | 25% |
| Home Runs Allowed on Fastballs | 45 | 30 |
| Fastball Whiff Rate | 9% | 15% |
This table highlights the stark contrast between the 2022 and 2023 seasons, showcasing the Phillies’ struggles with fastball effectiveness. The increase in batting average against fastballs and the rise in home runs allowed are particularly concerning for the pitching staff.
Analyzing the Impact on Hitting
The shift in pitching strategy has also had repercussions for the Phillies’ offensive capabilities. Batters who once thrived against fastballs are now facing increased challenges.
Hitting Performance Against Fastballs
– **Batting Average**: The team’s batting average against fastballs has dropped to .250, down from .270 in the previous season.
– **Home Run Production**: Fastballs accounted for a significant portion of home run production in prior seasons, but now, the team struggles to capitalize on these pitches.
Adapting Hitting Strategies
In light of these challenges, it’s essential for hitters to adapt their strategies:
1. **Plate Discipline**: Focus on recognizing pitch types and improving discipline to avoid chasing bad pitches.
2. **Bunting and Situational Hitting**: Utilize bunting against shifts and work on situational hitting to advance runners effectively.
3. **Improving Contact**: Shift focus from power hitting to making solid contact, particularly against fastballs that are in the strike zone.
Case Studies: Successful Adjustments by Opponents
Several teams have successfully adjusted their hitting strategies against the Phillies’ fastball-heavy approach this season. Here’s a look at how they’ve done it:
The New York Mets
The Mets are a prime example of a team that has thrived against the Phillies. They analyzed the pitchers’ tendencies and developed an approach that emphasizes:
– **Increased Swing Rates on Fastballs**: By being aggressive early in the count, they capitalize on fastballs before pitchers can mix in off-speed pitches.
– **Utilizing the Whole Field**: By spreading the field and hitting to all areas, they avoid the tendency to pull fastballs, reducing the likelihood of weak ground balls.
The Atlanta Braves
The Braves have faced the Phillies multiple times this season, and their strategy has involved:
- **Heavy Use of Analytics**: Using data to identify weak points in the Phillies’ pitching staff, they focus on exploiting fastball-heavy pitchers by swinging at the first pitch.
– **Aggressive Base Running**: By putting pressure on pitchers and catchers with aggressive base running, they’ve capitalized on mistakes, leading to additional scoring opportunities.
Benefits of Adapting to the Fastball Famine
Understanding and adapting to the Phillies’ current struggles opens up various avenues for improvement. Here are some benefits of addressing the fastball famine:
– **Enhanced Hitting Performance**: By developing a more versatile approach, hitters can find success against a wider array of pitch types.
– **Strategic Pitching Adjustments**: Focusing on pitch variety can keep opponents guessing and mitigate the impact of fastball-heavy tendencies.
– **Team Cohesion**: Working together to develop new strategies fosters a team mentality that can lead to improved overall performance.
Practical Tips for Coaches and Players
To combat the fastball famine, coaches and players can implement several practical strategies:
1. **Video Analysis**: Regularly review game footage to identify trends and areas for improvement in both hitting and pitching.
2. **Practice Varied Pitch Types**: Incorporate drills that focus on hitting off-speed pitches to prepare hitters for a diverse range of pitches.
3. **Team Meetings**: Hold regular discussions to share insights and strategies that players have found effective against fastball-heavy pitching.
First-Hand Experience: Players Speak Out
Several players have shared their thoughts on the challenges presented by the fastball famine:
– **Bryce Harper**: ”We’ve certainly noticed a shift in how teams are approaching us. We need to stay adaptable and find ways to counter their strategies.”
– **JT Realmuto**: “It’s crucial for us to maintain our confidence at the plate and not get discouraged by the numbers. Adjusting our approach will be key.”
By incorporating insights from players, coaches, and successful opponents, the Phillies can work towards overcoming the fastball famine and restoring their competitive edge.
Conclusion
The Philadelphia Phillies must recognize their fastball famine and take proactive measures to adapt to changing strategies from opponents. By understanding the current landscape of pitching and hitting in the league, and by fostering adaptability, the team can enhance their performance and increase their chances of success in future seasons.
