By Shayna Goldman, Sean Gentille and Dom Luszczyszyn
Last season, expectations were low for the Philadelphia Flyers, seen as a team likely to struggle amid a rebuilding phase. However, led by John Tortorella, the squad surprised many by achieving an impressive 87-point season.
Few anticipate a repeat of that performance from a Flyers team that exceeded expectations. Nonetheless, their previous success has set a higher standard for the upcoming 2024-25 season. While the Flyers may not be ready to compete at the highest level just yet, they certainly won’t be easy opponents.
The projection
Following last season’s surprise performance, the Flyers are expected to regress somewhat, with an 82-point projection for this year. This figure marks an eight-point improvement compared to the previous season’s forecasts, highlighting the team’s upward trajectory stemming from last season’s unexpected success.
While extending their 2023-24 performance is possible, a correction in their fortunes seems more likely. Projections indicate a 27 percent chance for the Flyers to reach 88 points or more, indicating a significant risk of underperformance.
Given their current developmental stage, this may actually be a positive outcome. Many fans worried that last year’s victories, while momentarily satisfying, could hinder the team’s long-term potential. For some, it seemed like a lost chance to secure a key player in the draft.
This year’s forecast may alleviate some of those concerns. The Flyers are projected to be poor enough to land in the bottom 10, with a possibility of falling even lower if luck doesn’t favor them this season.
The big question
Can Matvei Michkov provide the offensive boost the Flyers need to contend for the playoffs?
On some level, the answer is a definitive “yes.” The projections suggest the Flyers have a 19 percent chance of reaching the 90-point mark, which would likely place them in playoff contention. Moreover, they came surprisingly close to achieving that goal in the 2023-24 season, despite being among the NHL’s least productive offensive teams.
This isn’t an overstatement. Last season, the Flyers ranked 27th in total goals scored, possessing the least effective power play in the league. Travis Konecny topped the team with 68 points, tying for 58th in the league overall. Only seven teams had a leading scorer with a lower total; six of those teams were irrelevant in the playoff race, with the seventh, Washington, facing its own peculiar struggles.
Meanwhile, Owen Tippett emerged as a promising player, earning recognition from our Player Tiers evaluators by making it into Tier 5C after advocates highlighted his performance. Still, he managed only 53 points last season. When your second-most productive forward has such a modest output, it places the team at a
Concluding goaltending.
To suggest “Hey, it almost worked once” overlooks the improbability of a similar outcome recurring. Ultimately, this team is projected to receive significantly below-average contributions from its first-, second-, and third-line centers in relation to their responsibilities, with Sean Couturier and Scott Laughton posing specific challenges. If the objective is to reach the playoffs—which in many respects it shouldn’t be—substantial changes will need to take place.
Is Michkov’s presence sufficient? Long-term, all signs indeed point towards a positive direction. He ranks No. 2 on Scott Wheeler’s list of drafted prospects, being the only player aside from Bedard with MVP-level potential. While Philadelphia currently lacks game-changing talent on both the NHL roster and in the prospect pool, the standout player could be something special.
“Michkov’s brilliance stems mainly from his capacity to quickly make decisions and execute them with remarkable precision, whether it involves releasing a patterned shot (like his one-timer, standstill wrist shot, or curl-and-drag), demonstrating his astonishing skill, making a swift move into a pass, executing a sudden stop, or performing an attacking cut,” Wheeler remarked.
His overall gameplay appears to be in solid condition as well, as Philadelphia AHL coach Ian Laperriere noted in a conversation with The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz at the start of training camp. This bodes well for his inclusion in Tortorella’s lineup.
“Everyone saw the flashy plays, but upon reviewing the (Flyers rookie game), I noted the details he’s focusing on in the defensive zone,” Laperriere stated. “I’m certain he’s aware of the discussions around his defensive weaknesses or whatever, but he seems eager to prove he’s willing to do what it takes. To me, that’s a great sign.”
That sounds promising. However, he is still a 19-year-old with just 91 games of KHL experience. The projection of a 23-goal, 54-point pace speaks volumes about how impressive (and young) he was during those games. Could Michkov surpass those expectations? Absolutely—especially if he plays more than the anticipated 16 minutes per game.
Yet, even that might not resolve the underlying issues for Philadelphia. A team-wide PDO upswing, significant improvements from players like Tippett and Frost, and a bit of misfortune for several key Eastern Conference rivals would be necessary. Is it impossible? No. Is it unlikely? Definitely. Meanwhile, Flyers fans can still cheer for Michkov to excel and hope the lottery favors them.
The wild card
How promising is Ivan Fedotov?
Goaltending is the most complex position to assess and anticipate. There’s always a degree of volatility involved, and that uncertainty grows when the samples are as limited as Fedotov’s. Since he joined the Flyers last spring, he has only played in three NHL games, and two of those were not even for a complete 60 minutes.
Fedotov represents more than just those three appearances—he brings with him KHL and international experience that have shaped his development thus far—but uncertainty still lingers. Those brief outings provided insufficient information to determine how well Fedotov’s skills will adapt to the pace and talent of NHL play.
Additionally, his initial three games weren’t exactly highlights. In his first start, he conceded four goals on 30 shots. In his subsequent appearance, he allowed another four goals in less than 30 minutes. he surrendered about five more goals than would be expected based on“`html
than they were last season.
The strengths
Philadelphia’s largest strengths are currently making the team less competitive in the short term. The management is dedicated to rebuilding the Flyers and demonstrated their readiness to make difficult choices last year, even as the team remained in playoff contention.
The likely outcome in the short term is extended time outside the playoff race come spring. However, by concentrating on the overall direction of the rebuilding process, the Flyers position themselves for a stronger future.
Last season, the Flyers strayed from their anticipated trajectory for much of the year until management decided to sell at the trade deadline, which resulted in a drop in the standings. Much of their success stemmed from their defense, which is still anticipated to be a strong point this year.
Head Coach Tortorella and assistant Brad Shaw have fostered a sense of structure and identity in Philadelphia, enabling the team to surpass expectations. This begins with a proactive defensive approach at the blue line to minimize scoring opportunities during transitions. Philadelphia concluded the season ranking in the top 10 for expected goal suppression both at even strength and during penalty kills.
Some changes made before the trade deadline, including the departure of Sean Walker, negatively impacted the Flyers’ defensive performance. Nevertheless, the current lineup is projected to secure the 15th position in the league with a plus-8 Defensive Rating, reflecting strengths both on the defensive line and among forwards. Nick Seeler has established himself as a reliable presence in the top four, prompting management to extend his contract rather than trade him at the deadline. On the top defensive pairing, Travis Sanheim can be relied upon to retrieve pucks and facilitate breakouts during challenging moments. His ability to transition the puck into the offensive zone effectively was a significant highlight of his performance last year, aiding forwards in need of assistance during transitions.
A surprising positive component on defense is Rasmus Ristolainen, who has thrived under the structure, coaching, and reduced role provided by the Flyers. He appears much more suited for the third defensive pairing.
The Flyers’ blue line receives substantial support from their forwards. Although Sean Couturier’s offensive contributions may not have been as prolific as in previous years, he excelled defensively, reducing Philadelphia’s expected goals against by about 0.17 per 60 minutes compared to his teammates.
Tyson Forester’s rookie season was a highlight for the Flyers. Not only did he discover his scoring touch later in the season, but he consistently performed well defensively. Playing alongside Couturier likely contributed to this, as he boasts a team-leading plus-five Defensive Rating heading into this season. The first line of Couturier, Forester, and Konecny proved to be quite formidable, allowing only 1.82 expected goals against per 60 minutes during their time on the ice together last year. While they may lack the offensive flair of other elite lines in the league, they controlled play, with nearly 60 percent of the share of expected goals.
The Flyers’ fourth line is also reliable defensively,“`html
Among the true top talents in the league, he significantly affects the Flyers’ success through his passing, dependable scoring, and development in two-way play. His offensive contributions are more remarkable than they might appear, especially given the supporting talent surrounding him, particularly on the power play.
Tippett’s progress has provided a substantial boost to the second line, complementing Konecny well. He has advanced in his transition game, playmaking, and generating scoring opportunities, effectively translating these improvements across all game situations. Morgan Frost displays promise in forechecking, and the Flyers now need to rely on Michkov to inject further energy into that second line.
Weaknesses
The Flyers’ forward group holds a minus-17 Offensive Rating, ranking as the sixth-worst in the league. Only Konecny, Tippett, and Michkov are the three players who contribute positively to this statistic.
The shortcomings in the top line are quite pronounced. While that trio was able to generate scoring opportunities at five-on-five last year, it’s concerning that not a single member of this combination meets expectations based on their respective roles—largely due to their offensive production capabilities. For the elite players, controlling the game is insufficient; tangible results are essential. Although the trio’s goal rate of 52 percent was acceptable, it fell below expectations by eight percent, mainly due to a deficiency in effective finishing.
On the second line, uncertainty surrounds both Michkov and Frost to some degree. It remains unclear whether the team envisions Frost as part of their future plan. Despite some improvements in his performance during the latter half of the season, he has yet to fully find his rhythm.
Last year, Scott Laughton struggled to be a positive offensive force and did little to enhance the team’s defensive capabilities, either. While management aims to take a long-term view with their rebuild, the decision to keep Laughton instead of selling high could prove detrimental if he fails to bring more two-way stability to the third line.
The Flyers experienced a glimpse of what a third line featuring Joel Farabee, Scott Laughton, and Bobby Brink could accomplish in approximately 90 minutes of five-on-five play last season. During this stretch, the line performed effectively, outscoring opponents 5-3. However, upon closer inspection, their performance was far from dominant, surrendering about 60 percent of the expected goals share during their ice time. This line doesn’t necessarily need to transform into a defensive powerhouse like the fourth line to find success; Brink must progress in his development, and Farabee needs to deliver improved offensive output. Otherwise, they risk becoming a liability for the Flyers.
The glaring absence of game-breaking offensive talent contributed to a dismal power play last year. Philadelphia not only ranked among the lowest in generating opportunities on the advantage but also struggled even more with their shooting efficiency. Even if their shooting percentage trends closer to the league average, the fundamental lack of talent makes it improbable that the primary power play unit will meet even modest scoring expectations.
While Philadelphia may have exceeded scoring expectations last year, it is possible that this success is merely a reflection of the current group’s limitations, leaving them far below the offensive ceilings of some of the league’s elite teams. Although there is potential for growth through player development and the emergence of younger talent, the team needs to maintain realistic expectations regarding the level of progress achievable this season.
Compounding the issue is the absence of an elite offensive defenseman to compensate for the front-line deficiencies.
Only two defensemen—Cam York and Travis Sanheim—currently post a positive Offensive Rating,
The Flyers will require their defensive strengths to propel them this season for two primary reasons: they are short on offense and have uncertainties in net.
Ersson ascended to the role of No. 1 goalie in a challenging scenario, but it was clear that he was not adequately prepared for this level of responsibility. As the race for the playoffs intensified in the spring, Ersson began to show signs of fatigue due to his heavy workload. Although he displayed improvement during certain stretches, he ultimately finished with a save percentage of 0.890, allowing more goals than anticipated.
With the addition of a solid backup goaltender and a full offseason for Ersson to condition himself for increased minutes, there’s hope that he won’t experience a slump as the spring approaches. However, depending on two inexperienced goaltenders to sustain the team throughout an 82-game season is a significant challenge — especially if the defense falters at any point.
The best case
The Flyers could enjoy an unexpected season that defies projections — positively or negatively. A 13-point improvement, akin to last season’s surprising performance, could either propel them into the playoffs with 95 points or place them among the worst teams with only 69 points. Reaching either of these outcomes would be a considerable achievement.
The worst case
Alternatively, the Flyers could end up with another lackluster season, finishing with 87 points and missing the playoffs, as well as the upper tier of the draft. This prospect of lingering in league purgatory seems unavoidable.
The bottom line
The onset of the Michkov era promises excitement, and there should be no doubt regarding Tortorella’s capacity to elevate mediocre teams to exceed expectations. However, their deficiency in reliable goal-scorers and established goaltending appears to set them on a course towards the draft lottery.
References
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.
(Photo of Matvei Michkov: Eric Hartline / Imagn Images)
Philadelphia Flyers 2024-25 Season Preview: Can the Michkov Era Spark a Playoff Push?
Overview of the Flyers’ Recent Performance
The Philadelphia Flyers have had a tumultuous few seasons, struggling to find their footing in the competitive NHL landscape. The 2023-24 season marked a pivotal point for the franchise, as they aimed to rebuild and rejuvenate their roster. With the addition of talented young players, particularly Matvei Michkov, the Flyers are looking to turn the tide and make a serious playoff push in the upcoming 2024-25 season.
Matvei Michkov: A New Hope for the Flyers
Drafted 7th overall in the 2023 NHL Draft, Matvei Michkov has quickly become the centerpiece of the Flyers’ rebuilding efforts. At just 19 years old, Michkov brings a wealth of talent, demonstrating impressive skills during his tenure in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) where he recorded 41 points (19 goals, 22 assists) in 48 games [[1](https://www.nhl.com/news/philadelphia-flyers-2024-25-season-preview)].
Strengths and Skills
- Scoring Ability: Michkov’s natural goal-scoring talent will be crucial for the Flyers, especially in tight games.
- Playmaking Skills: His vision on the ice allows him to create opportunities for his teammates, enhancing overall team performance.
- Ice Awareness: Michkov’s ability to read plays and anticipate movements can significantly impact game outcomes.
Projected Impact on Team Dynamics
With his arrival, Michkov is likely to take on a prominent role in the lineup. This could lead to:
- Increased Offensive Production: The Flyers’ offense, which has struggled in recent years, could see a boost with Michkov’s contributions.
- Enhanced Special Teams: His skill set makes him a valuable asset on both the power play and penalty kill units.
- Mentorship Opportunities: Playing alongside veterans could accelerate his development and offer leadership to younger teammates.
Key Players to Watch This Season
While Michkov is a standout, several key players will also be pivotal in the Flyers’ pursuit of a playoff spot.
Offensive Cornerstones
| Player | Position | 2023-24 Points |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Konecny | RW | 61 |
| Kevin Hayes | C | 55 |
| Joel Farabee | LW | 52 |
Defensive Anchors
- Ivan Provorov: As a top defenseman, Provorov’s ability to log major minutes will be crucial for maintaining defensive integrity.
- Travis Sanheim: His offensive instincts from the blue line can provide support during rushes and power plays.
Coaching Strategy and Team Philosophy
The Flyers’ coaching staff, led by their head coach, will play an integral role in harnessing the team’s potential. The focus will likely be on:
- Developing Young Talent: Emphasizing player development, particularly for Michkov and other young prospects.
- Defensive Structure: Improving the overall defensive game to complement the offensive firepower.
- Balanced Lineup: Ensuring a mix of youth and experience to maintain competitiveness throughout the season.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
- Young Talent: The influx of young players like Michkov positions the team for long-term success.
- Offensive Firepower: With several players capable of scoring, the Flyers can pose a threat to opposing defenses.
- Fan Support: Philadelphia fans are known for their unwavering loyalty, providing the team with a strong home-ice advantage.
Weaknesses
- Lack of Experience: A young roster may struggle in high-pressure situations.
- Inconsistency: Previous seasons have shown a lack of consistency in performance, particularly in crucial games.
- Defensive Depth: The need for stronger defensive pairings to support goaltending efforts is evident.
Potential Season Outcomes
As the Flyers embark on the 2024-25 season, several scenarios could unfold:
- Playoff Contenders: If Michkov and the young core can gel with veteran players, the Flyers may find themselves competing for a playoff spot.
- Rebuilding Year: Should injuries or performance issues arise, this season may serve as another rebuilding phase.
- Trade Opportunities: Depending on the season’s progression, the Flyers might look to bolster their lineup through trades.
Fan Engagement and Community Impact
The Flyers’ organization understands that community support is pivotal. They plan to enhance fan engagement through:
- Interactive Events: Hosting fan festivals and meet-and-greet opportunities with players.
- Social Media Campaigns: Engaging with fans through interactive content and updates on team progress.
Benefits of Following the Flyers
For fans, following the Flyers during this transitional period offers several benefits:
- Witnessing Growth: Fans will have the chance to see young stars develop and mature over the season.
- Community Spirit: Joining in on the excitement surrounding the team’s rebuild can foster a strong community bond.
Conclusion
As the Philadelphia Flyers prepare for the 2024-25 season, all eyes will be on Matvei Michkov and the ensemble of young talent joining him. With a blend of skill, strategy, and community support, the Flyers hope to spark a playoff push and reignite the passion of their fanbase.
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