NEW YORK — Everything felt somewhat reminiscent, as if we had witnessed it before …
There they were, the where’d-they-come-from wild-card team, celebrating and embracing on the infield while fireworks went off and 44,000 fans strained their voices to the limit …
Meanwhile, across the field, in an alternate reality, the renowned players from the latest, vanquished 95-win team sat immobile in their dugout, grappling with the conclusion of their World Series aspirations …
Indeed, we’ve seen this before. And again, it unfolded last Wednesday at Citi Field, as the Mets sent the formidable Phillies off to the driving range, rather than to the NLCS.
Let’s all acknowledge that it requires quite a mental leap to view a $346 million team like the Mets as underdogs. But for the moment, let’s roll with that perspective, shall we?
Why engage with this notion? Because this marks the third consecutive October, since MLB implemented the new playoff structure, where a No. 6 seed—by definition the last team entering the field in each league—has advanced to the League Championship Series, defeating both a No. 2 seed and a No. 3 seed in earlier rounds. Furthermore, if the Mets conquer the Dodgers next, it would represent three straight years featuring a No. 6 seed in the World Series.
So, does Major League Baseball find this acceptable? Now that we possess three years of postseason series for analysis, can we confidently assert that this format operates optimally? Let’s delve into this by exploring What We’ve Learned About This Playoff Format following the Division Series and Wild Card Series.
How many ‘upsets’ have we observed?
It’s year three of baseball’s 12-team playoff format. The system was theoretically instituted to reward the best teams with a brief respite while making the journey as challenging as possible for the lowest-ranked teams. But has it played out that way?
Are these byes resulting in goodbyes for the top seeds? Are all those road games detrimental to the lowest seeds? Here’s the evidence. You can make the call.
Upstarts Department — We’ll begin with the 5-6 seeds, the last two teams to enter the tournament in each league, thus also the teams that have
to compete solely in road games during the Wild Card Series. This was intended to be a significant hurdle. However, let’s explore how detrimental this situation has proven to be (or not):
No. 6 seeds — In the past three years, these teams have secured victories in 10 series, including three this year (as of now). As we previously highlighted, if the Mets triumph in the NLCS, it will mark the third consecutive year a No. 6 seed reaches the World Series. (The 2022 Phillies and 2023 Diamondbacks accomplished this feat first.)
Keep in mind that prior to 2022, these teams would typically be eliminated from playoff contention by this stage. Nevertheless, they have emerged as formidable challengers since MLB opened the playoff gates for them.
No. 5 seeds — Teams in this category have the second-worst records among all participants in each league. Despite this, they have claimed seven series victories in the past three years, including the Royals knocking out the Orioles this season.
One of these No. 5 seeds — the 2023 Rangers — even clinched the World Series title. Additionally, the 2022 Padres reached the NLCS, stunning the 100-win Mets and Dodgers along the way.
Let’s break down the numbers — Collectively, those 5- and 6-seeded teams have participated in 27 series across the last three postseasons. They have triumphed in 17 of those! Is that figure impressive? Absolutely!
In fact, it surpasses the record of the titans — the teams that enjoyed five days of rest before beginning their playoff runs.
No. 1 seeds — These teams have averaged an impressive 103 wins. However, prior to this year, only one No. 1 seed had managed to win a series. That was the 2022 Astros, who gained momentum and ultimately secured the World Series title. This year, at least, the Yankees and Dodgers joined them by advancing to the LCS, although the Dodgers faced a more challenging path than the San Diego Freeway.
No. 2 seeds — No. 2 seeds have an average of 96 wins. Thus far, they have not produced any World Series contenders and have won only three series in three years. One of those victories came from the Guardians over the weekend. It’s remarkable how a single unexpected swing by Lane Thomas off Tarik Skubal can significantly enhance the overall record of these teams.
Now, let’s crunch the numbers once more — The top two seeds have collectively contested 17 series since this format was introduced. They’ve emerged victorious in nine of those — but four victories belong solely to the 2022-23 Astros. In contrast, the Braves, Dodgers, and Phillies have combined for a disappointing 0-4 as 1-2 seeds — until the Dodgers managed to score against the Padres last week.
However, if we assess the performance of these teams in the Division Series, the matches they played directly after their bye week, the 1-2 seeds have won six out of 12 series. If this seems surprisingly subpar for the leading teams in the sport, remember just how bleak the situation appeared a few days prior.
Those elite teams had secured only three victories out of nine series from 2022 until the Phillies’ loss to the Mets. Then, just three days later, the Yankees, Dodgers, and Guardians flipped the narrative by winning three consecutive series, as expected.
Because it’s …
Baseball!
Is the best-of-three Wild Card Series fairer than a single game?
From 2012 to 2021 (excluding the 2020 pandemic postseason), the sole path for a wild-card team to advance was to survive a single elimination Wild Card Game. The good news? It created incredible drama. The downside? Everything else about that game.
Therefore, three Octobers ago, in response to popular demand, baseball abolished that game — replacing it with a best-of-three Wild Card Series, with all games hosted by the higher seed. A brilliant decision. But …
What you’d expect — Playing all games away from home — and having a less favorable record than the opponent — seems like a significant disadvantage, right?
What is actually occurring — Incorrect! After 12 of these
Over the last three years of the Wild Card Series, higher seeds have recorded a 4-8 record, and this year they managed only 1-3, with the Padres being the sole team to navigate the obstacles and advance to a Division Series.
What does this tell us? The best-of-three format is still quite unconventional for baseball, proving to be a significant challenge for higher seeds, similar to the win-or-your-beautiful-season-is-over-in-three-hours Wild Card Game. In fact, it’s even been less favorable!
Record of higher seeds in the wild-card round
2012-21* (one game) — 8-10
2022-24 (best-of-three) — 4-8
(*2020 not included)
Is the bye an advantage or a burden?
The mixed results of teams coming off a bye have already been examined: they currently hold a 6-6 record across 12 Division Series. It could certainly be worse. If not for the Yankees, Dodgers, and Guardians last week, it would be worse. However, it still raises questions when we consider who is participating in these series.
Average regular-season wins for teams with a bye — 99
Average regular-season wins for their opponents — 89
Despite these impressive records and the advantages conferred by MLB, the teams enjoying a bye have only managed to win half of these series. We contacted the Phillies and Mets to share their insights on this curious phenomenon. They both attributed it to one common factor: momentum .
Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto: “In ’22, we were riding that wave (as the No. 6 seed). We represented that team. We were the Mets. We were the team that got hot at the right moment, embraced our talent, and played freely. That’s what they did to us in this series.”
Mets reliever Ryne Stanek: “I believe it has a lot to do with the team that’s on a roll. You fight for your life every day. And then,
“Once you reach the playoffs, you’re essentially fighting for your survival. It feels completely normal at that point. You realize we’ve been battling for this for three weeks; we fought hard to get here. So why would our approach change now that we’re in the playoffs? That’s the mentality needed to secure a win.”
But is this merely a narrative we attribute to series like these, or is it a tangible phenomenon? The Royals and Tigers were heralded as The Hot Team this October … until they weren’t. The Phillies maintained that title in each of the last two Octobers … until they lost as well. Thus, it’s wise to approach post-event narratives with caution.
Nonetheless, can we discern a pattern from what we’ve observed? An executive from a team that missed the playoffs, yet has competed in them during his time in the front office, believes there might indeed be a trend.
As he put it, the teams we’ve seen upset in the Division Series “have consistently shown strong performance over 162 games. Yet, we are matching them against teams that have already celebrated success. They’ve already popped champagne. … That momentum is genuine. The Mets had that (Pete) Alonso homer in Milwaukee before the Phillies even threw a pitch in the playoffs. That builds real momentum.”
Yet, is he perhaps placing too much emphasis on the weight of momentum in baseball? Does momentum, regardless of the accompanying physical and mental fatigue, truly outweigh the benefits the top two seeds gain from having five days off? I’m uncertain. To clarify, I asked the presidents of baseball operations for both teams.
Dave Dombrowski (Phillies): “First and foremost, I’m not implying that’s why the Phillies lost. However, that’s a significant amount of time to be off. … Personally, if you could guarantee a victory in a best-of-three series while keeping players healthy, I would opt for that. It’s my belief that our game is suited for continuous play.”
David Stearns (Mets): “I don’t have the answer. Our preference is definitely to win the division—take those five days off, rest our bullpen, and position ourselves well for the series. While I’m aware of the trends in the industry and the last couple of years, I can’t provide an explanation. What I do know is that we are performing very well at the moment.”
If he doesn’t have the answer, then perhaps no definitive answer exists. However, that raises another pertinent question that this sport has wrestled with before…
Should the Division Series be Best-of-Seven?
During the 2021 labor negotiations, the MLB Players Association proposed this very change: to replace the best-of-five format for the Division Series with a best-of-seven. The league declined, primarily to avoid extending a postseason schedule that is already creeping into November.
This rationale is understandable. No one wants to watch Game 7 of the World Series on Thanksgiving, right after the Cowboys’ game. But let’s set that aside for now. Let’s focus on the baseball implications.
How you might expect it to function — Logically, a best-of-seven format should favor the superior and deeper teams. If this proved accurate, we would be more likely to see the strongest teams progress to the League Championship Series, wouldn’t we?
How it’s actually transpiring — Well, at least in other sports! In the NBA, according to STATS Perform, the top two seeds in each conference win their first series (a best-of-seven) about 90 percent of the time. In NHL, the top two seeds triumph in their first series (also a best-of-seven) nearly 60 percent of the time. Note that there are no byes in those leagues.
However, in baseball, the top two seeds are succeeding in their first series (a best-of-five) only 50 percent of the time under this format. Even when examining earlier structures in the wild-card era, winning percentages did not align with those observed in other sports.
From 2012-21 (one
-game wild-card format) — The leading two seeds in each league (who consequently had just two additional days off) emerged victorious in their initial series 54.1 percent of the time (excluding 2020).
From 1998-2011 (no wild-card round) — During the period when only one wild-card team participated and division winners received no extra rest days, the performance of the top seeds did not significantly improve. We start with 1998, marking the first season in which division winners were ranked based on their records. Even under that system, the top two seeds succeeded in winning their opening series only 51.5 percent of the time.
Now, returning to the initial question: In baseball, do the “best” teams win a best-of-seven series more frequently than in a best-of-five series? Our colleagues at STATS conducted an analysis:
Teams with a superior regular-season record in postseason series (all time)
| SERIES | WINS | LOSSES | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|
(Source: STATS Perform)
So does the best-of-seven format provide an advantage to those teams? Not really! The “best” team wins a best-of-seven series 55 percent of the time compared to a 54 percent win rate in a best-of-five series. This indicates hardly any difference at all. Let’s approach this from a different angle.
Consider the situation observed in this year’s Division Series, where the higher seeds divided their first two home games, effectively relinquishing their home-field edge. Do teams in this scenario have a better chance of winning a best-of-seven series as opposed to a best-of-five? Barely!
I focused on the period from 2012-24, during which baseball implemented multiple wild cards within each league.
Record of higher seeds splitting first two games at home, 2012-24*
| SERIES | WINS | LOSSES | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|
(*Not including 2020)
Once again, regardless of which scenario is considered, there has consistently been little difference in the performance of the “best” teams in a best-of-seven series compared to a best-of-five. It still appears more equitable. In the context of baseball, larger sample sizes generally reflect the sport more accurately than smaller ones. However, where is the evidence suggesting that switching to a best-of-seven format would significantly alter outcomes, if at all?
What other options could MLB explore?
The Tigers eliminated Houston in the wild-card round and advanced to take on the Guardians. If MLB reseeded after every round, Detroit would have faced the Yankees. (Tim Warner / Getty Images)
In the first 65 postseasons during the World Series era (1903-68), teams with the best regular-season records reached the World Series every single time. Was that true perfection? Or was it simply what occurs when there are no playoffs, only a regular season followed by a championship series?
Regardless of how one interprets it, one thing is certain: The likelihood of reverting from 12 playoff teams back to just two is as slim as the chance of the 2024 White Sox clinching the World Series.
That is, nonexistent.
So, what additional strategies could baseball consider? Here are some suggestions that have been mentioned — some of which have already come up in labor discussions:
Reseed after every round — In the NFL playoffs, when an upset occurs, the league reseeds prior to the next round. What if baseball adopted this approach after the Mets defeated Milwaukee in the initial round?
In this situation, the Mets, as the lowest remaining seed, would have faced the Dodgers rather than the Phillies, while the Padres would have played the Phillies as the next lowest seed. It’s uncertain which teams would benefit or be disadvantaged by this change. Nevertheless, it offers another avenue to enhance the fairness of the playoffs for the top teams.
Reseeding has been proposed in labor discussions before. However, I’ve yet to hear a compelling argument for why it hasn’t been implemented. It’s worth noting that the NBA and NHL do not engage in reseeding, if that is of any significance.
Allow wild card teams to play an extra game — In South Korea, the KBO playoffs begin with a Wild
The Card Series presents a unique format not commonly found in America. In this setup, the two wild-card teams engage in a “best-of-three” series, with the higher seed beginning with a 1-0 advantage in games. Consequently, for the lower seed to advance, they must secure two wins, while the higher seed requires just one win.
Three years ago, the MLB players’ union suggested this change. One motivation behind it was to provide top seeds with a clear advantage in every series. Another goal was to reduce the number of days off that top seeds enjoy during their bye week. However, the league declined the proposal once again.
Why did they refuse? A source within Major League Baseball familiar with the discussions revealed that the league surveyed fans on that proposal, among others. The majority of fans polled were decidedly opposed to the idea. This leads me to believe they might also dislike the next suggestion. …
Transform the Division Series into a best-of-seven format, but …the lower seed still faces the same disadvantage. In essence, this would become a best-of-seven series with a KBO-style twist. The higher seed would also commence this series with a 1-0 lead.
If this rule had been applied during the Mets-Phillies series, for instance, the Phillies would have needed three victories to progress, while the Mets would have to win four. Understand?
The result might have remained unchanged. Nonetheless, it would have offered an additional advantage to the team that achieved 95 wins during the season, which is six more than the Mets. Moreover, under this configuration, a theoretical “best-of-seven” series could be played over a similar timeframe as the current best-of-five series.
An American League scout presented this concept to me during the last round. To my knowledge, it has never been formally debated. I suspect it may never see the light of day, partly because MLB has consistently shown little interest in mirroring the KBO.
KBO has a dramatic bye structure: their playoff format is #5 vs. #4, then the winner faces #3, and so on until the #1 seed, which effectively enjoys a two-week bye between the end of the regular season and the start of the postseason. Since 2001, the #1 seed has claimed the Korean Series title 20 out of 23 times.
— Tangotiger 🍁 (@tangotiger) October 9, 2024
So what’s the “solution?” Perhaps there isn’t one. Yet, an even more significant question arises: Do we really need a solution?
Have you ever taken the time to watch a baseball game? If you’ve made it this far, chances are you have. And if you have, I bet you’ve noticed one crucial aspect:
Upsets occur!
Furthermore, they didn’t just start happening two weeks ago or in some past October. Just ask Bob Feller about the 1954 Giants. Consult Ted Williams regarding the 1946 Red Sox. Speak to the spirits of Tinkers, Evers, and Chance, along with the rest of the 1906 Cubs.
If you wish to avoid upsets, then perhaps playoffs should be eliminated. Understand? And if you aren’t satisfied with how these playoffs turned out, the solution is simple: play better. Pitch better. Prepare better.
The current postseason structure theoretically shouldn’t favor underdogs as much as it has. However, theory doesn’t throw any pitches—not this October, nor any October. This sport should continually strive for the most equitable version of this tournament. But regardless of that version, upsets … will … happen … because …
Baseball!
(Top photo of Francisco Lindor and Bryson Stott: Rob Tringali / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
October Surprises: Analyzing the Impact of MLB’s New Playoff Format on Upsets and Performance
Understanding MLB’s New Playoff Format
The Major League Baseball (MLB) postseason has undergone a significant transformation in recent years, aiming to enhance fan engagement and maintain competitive balance. The new playoff format, implemented in 2022, expanded the number of postseason teams from 10 to 12, introducing two additional Wild Card spots. This system offers an exciting opportunity for lower-seeded teams to upset higher-seeded teams, leading to what fans term “October surprises.”
The Structure of the New Playoff Format
Under the current MLB playoff format, here’s how things work:
- Division Winners: The three division winners from each league automatically qualify for the postseason.
- Wild Card Teams: Three additional teams from each league, based on their regular-season records, qualify as Wild Cards.
- First Round: The two teams with the best records receive a bye, while the remaining teams play in a best-of-three Wild Card series.
- Division Series, Championship Series, and World Series: The playoffs then progress into best-of-five and best-of-seven series, culminating in the World Series.
How the New Format Affects Upsets
The expansion of the playoff field drastically alters the landscape of postseason baseball. Here’s how the format potentially leads to more upsets:
- Increased Access: With more teams eligible for the playoffs, lower-seeded teams have a greater chance of qualifying, increasing the likelihood of upsets.
- Short Series Dynamics: The Wild Card series is a best-of-three format, allowing for unexpected outcomes due to the small sample size.
- Momentum Shifts: A team that enters the playoffs on a hot streak can capitalize on its momentum, regardless of its lower seed.
Historical Context of Upsets in MLB
Historically, MLB playoffs have seen numerous shocking outcomes. Notable examples include:
| Year | Underdog Team | Opponent | Series Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Yankees | Won World Series |
| 2003 | Florida Marlins | New York Yankees | Won World Series |
| 2021 | Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | Won World Series |
Analyzing Performance Metrics
With the new format encouraging more upsets, it’s essential to analyze performance metrics that can influence a team’s chances of surprising higher-seeded opponents. Key areas to consider include:
Pitching Performance
Pitching depth can be a deciding factor in short playoff series. Teams with strong bullpens and ace starters can outlast opponents even if they have a lower regular-season record.
Offensive Consistency
Consistent offensive production throughout the season translates to playoff success. Teams that can score runs in clutch situations often perform well against higher seeds.
Defensive Efficiency
Defensive play can make or break a playoff series. Teams with superior defensive metrics tend to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities, crucial in high-stakes games.
Case Study: Recent October Surprises
To illustrate how the new playoff format influences upsets, let’s explore a few recent case studies:
2022: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies qualified as a Wild Card team and managed to upset the higher-seeded St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card round. Their success was largely attributed to:
- A powerful lineup featuring players like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
- Dominant pitching performances, particularly from their bullpen.
2023: Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers entered the playoffs with a Wild Card spot and went on to defeat the Baltimore Orioles in a surprising upset. Factors contributing to their success included:
- The emergence of young talent and key player performances during critical moments.
- A well-strategized rotation that gave them an edge in pitching matchups.
Benefits of the New Format for Teams and Fans
The revamped playoff system not only impacts playoff dynamics but also offers benefits to teams and fans alike:
- More Engaging Playoffs: The increased number of teams creates more games and excitement for fans.
- Greater Opportunities for Teams: Teams that may have had disappointing regular seasons can still compete for the championship.
- Increased Revenue: More playoff games can lead to higher ticket sales and greater television viewership.
Practical Tips for Fans
If you’re a baseball fan looking to maximize your enjoyment of the postseason, consider these tips:
- Stay Updated: Follow team news, injuries, and performance stats as they can significantly impact outcomes.
- Watch for Trends: Analyze teams’ performance leading into playoffs; a team on a winning streak can be a strong contender.
- Engage with the Community: Join fan forums and social media discussions to share insights and predictions with others.
First-Hand Experience: Watching the Upsets
As a passionate baseball fan, the thrill of watching an underdog triumph is unmatched. The unpredictability of the playoff format keeps viewers on the edge of their seats. Witnessing teams like the Phillies and Rangers defy the odds reaffirms the belief that anything can happen in October.
Sharing experiences with fellow fans and engaging in discussions about strategies and potential matchups creates a sense of community and enriches the overall viewing experience.
Conclusion: Embracing the October Surprises
As we delve deeper into this era of MLB playoffs, the new format promises to deliver more October surprises, showcasing the unpredictability and excitement that makes baseball so captivating. Understanding the dynamics of upsets, performance metrics, and team strategies can enhance our appreciation of postseason baseball and make us more informed fans.
