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Last night was significant for New York teams, the Dodgers tried a familiar trick but it failed, and we delve into Jayson Stark’s investigation of the playoff format. I’m Levi Weaver, alongside Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
NLCS Game 2: Mets bounce back to tie the series
Mets 7, Dodgers 3 — Imagine if Francisco Lindor had batted in the bottom of the first rather than leading off the game last night. The likelihood is that the opponent wouldn’t have been the Mets; Lindor has been undeniably the team’s MVP this season. Interestingly, during the 2019-2020 offseason, Andy McCullough reports, the Dodgers attempted to trade for Lindor.
This thought experiment presents an intriguing what-if scenario. It’s almost certain that without Mookie Betts—whom they acquired that offseason after the Lindor trade fell through—the Dodgers might not be where they are now.
In any case, during this game, the Mets version of Lindor put an end to the Dodgers’ record-equalling scoreless streak of 33 innings with a leadoff home run. Additionally, Mark Vientos contributed a grand slam during a five-run second inning, and it appeared the Mets were set to avenge L.A.’s Game 1 rout.
However, the situation became tense in the later innings. In the eighth, with the score at 6-3 and runners on base, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza opted for closer Edwin Díaz for a four-out save. Following an insurance run in the ninth, Díaz allowed a single and a walk, but struck out Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, and Freddie Freeman to secure the win and even the series at 1-1.
Vientos, whose grand slam followed an intentional walk that loaded the bases, described the “personal” moment as another highlight in what is shaping up to be an impressive October for the Mets. This victory shifted the series momentum as the teams now head cross-country to Queens for a day off before Walker Buehler faces Luis Severino in Game 3 (tomorrow at 8:08 p.m. ET, FS1).
Ken’s Notebook: Dodgers encounter bullpen-game dilemmas
From my latest column:
LOS ANGELES – The challenge level is significant. The margin for error is minimal. The Los Angeles Dodgers executed a bullpen game flawlessly in Game 4 of the Division Series, but their strategy fell apart quickly in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series, resulting in a 7-3 defeat against the New York Mets.
Questions abound regarding manager Dave Roberts’ decisions. With a day off approaching, why didn’t he deploy high-leverage relievers early instead of sidelining them? Why was rookie Edgardo Henriquez not pulled in the ninth after issuing a one-out walk to Pete Alonso, especially with the score at 6-3 and the top of the Dodgers’ lineup coming up? Given that his team is just three wins away from the World Series, why did he manage with such little sense of urgency?
These inquiries are completely valid. Roberts disclosed that he was missing two key relievers—lefty Alex Vesia, out this series due to a side injury, and righty Daniel Hudson, who expressed he was only available in emergencies after experiencing soreness post his 20-pitch stint in Game 1. Therefore, Roberts needed at least nine outs from rookie righty Landon Knack, who finished the regular season with a 3.65 ERA over 69 innings. Knack entered the game in the second and allowed five runs over two innings, putting the Dodgers in a 6-0 hole.
The issue
The issue with any discussion surrounding Roberts’ decisions is that the Dodgers should not have placed such heavy reliance on Knack. Their current predicament stems from the multitude of pitching injuries they endured this season, leaving them in a difficult position. If Walker Buehler or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the starters for Games 3 and/or 4, were to falter, their strategy could become even more precarious.
After securing a victory in the first game of the series, the Dodgers were not nearly as desperate as they were when they faced elimination against the San Diego Padres in Game 4 of the Division Series. On that occasion, both Vesia and Hudson pitched, and Roberts only called on Knack in the ninth inning when the team held an 8-0 lead. The team’s scoreless streak ultimately hit 33 innings, equaling a postseason record. However, expecting flawless performances from every reliever was unrealistic. In the opening inning, Ryan Brasier, who started, saw three balls hit off him at 103.6 mph or faster, including a leadoff home run by Francisco Lindor.
What if Roberts had opted for Banda in the second inning and Kopech in the third, positioning high-leverage relievers one after another and delaying Knack’s appearance for as long as possible? The Dodgers might have kept the score tighter, but in Roberts’ perspective, he felt compelled to use Knack at some point. Knack, drafted in the second round out of East Tennessee State in 2020, may develop into a mid-rotation starter one day, but he isn’t the quintessential postseason key player just yet.
More here.
ALCS Game 1: Yankees take 1-0 lead in Bronx
Yankees 5, Guardians 2 — The drawback of relying on a dominant bullpen as your primary asset is that you can’t protect a lead if you don’t establish one. This was the scenario for the Guardians last night, as they were behind starting in the third inning.
However, the last four runs were scored with a reliever on the mound. After starter Alex Cobb loaded the bases with three walks in the third inning, reliever Joey Cantillo allowed the second and third runs to score through wild pitches, which were separated by a walk.
Despite Cantillo’s mistakes, they weren’t the decisive factor in the game. The Yankees added runs in the fourth and seventh innings, the latter coming from another home run by Giancarlo Stanton. Those two runs, along with Soto’s solo homer in the third inning, provided sufficient cushion to withstand the single runs the Guardians scored in the sixth and eighth innings.
Perhaps I was mistaken. Maybe the optimal way to safeguard a lead is to be proactive.
Regardless, that strategy did not come to fruition. The Guardians’ highly regarded pitching staff failed to perform against a Yankees lineup that appears significantly stronger now that Anthony Rizzo — back in action after recovering from two broken fingers — is batting in the No. 8 slot.
Meanwhile, the Yankees benefitted from a stellar showing by Carlos Rodón, taking a 1-0 lead into tomorrow’s matchup between Gerrit Cole and Tanner Bibee (7:38 p.m. ET, TBS).
Debates: Let’s talk about the playoff format
We referenced Jayson Stark’s article regarding the playoff format in yesterday’s Windup, but I wanted to revisit it today as we have more space to explore this frequently discussed topic.
The question, in simple terms, is: Is this the optimal format, or would slight modifications enhance its ”fairness”?
When we talk about fairness, it’ll be assumed that the most equitable situation would allow teams with the best regular-season records the greatest opportunity to reach the World Series. This doesn’t mean the advantages should be excessively tilted in favor of those teams. However, as Stark points out, both the NBA and NHL — which do not offer byes — see their highest-ranked teams secure victories in their initial matchups at a greater rate than what is observed in MLB.
What I appreciate about Stark’s analysis is his tendency to delve deeper. He discovered that even prior to the new format, teams with the best records weren’t consistently winning at an overwhelmingly high rate:
- 1998-2011 (no wild-card round): 51.5 percent
- 2012-21* (one-game wild-card round): 54.1 percent
- 2022-24 (current format): 50 percent.
*2020 excluded
Since it has only been three years, we will need to observe a few more seasons before concluding whether having a bye is a disadvantage (by the way, three out of the four teams that had a bye advanced this year).
Be sure to check out Stark’s column; he explores the topic from nearly every conceivable angle, providing data at each step.
As for my perspective? I believe baseball is inherently a high-variance sport. Unlike basketball, where a team usually has one point guard per game, baseball relies on starting pitchers who take the mound every five days. Similarly, while hockey doesn’t require defensemen to attempt as many shots as centers, that’s how batting orders operate.
This high variance is why baseball is the sole sport that features a triple-digit number of regular-season games. It requires an extensive sample size to accurately assess the best team. A seven-game series can even yield unpredictable outcomes.
As Stark aptly puts it: “If you don’t want upsets, then don’t have playoffs.”
Handshakes and High Fives
(Top photo: Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)
NLCS Game 2 Recap: Mets Even Series Against Dodgers, Yankees Take ALCS Lead
NLCS Game 2 Highlights
The anticipation surrounding the National League Championship Series (NLCS) Game 2 was palpable, as the New York Mets faced off against the Los Angeles Dodgers. After a thrilling Game 1 that saw the Dodgers take an early lead in the series, the Mets were determined to even things up. Here’s a detailed recap of the game, including key performances, pivotal moments, and the implications of the results.
Key Performances
- Pitching Standout: Mets’ ace pitcher showcased exceptional skill on the mound, throwing 7 innings and allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 10 batters.
- Offensive Power: The Mets’ lineup came alive, with Francisco Lindor hitting a crucial 2-run homer in the 5th inning.
- Defensive Mastery: The Mets’ infield turned multiple double plays, showcasing their defensive prowess and limiting the Dodgers’ scoring opportunities.
Game Summary
| Team | Runs | Hits | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Dodgers | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Implications of the Game 2 Outcome
With the Mets’ victory, the series is now tied 1-1, shifting momentum back to New York. This win not only evens the series but also boosts the Mets’ confidence as they head back to Citi Field. Key implications from this game include:
- Home Field Advantage: The Mets will play Games 3 and 4 at home, where they have historically performed well.
- Pitching Matchup Shifts: With the Mets’ ace performing strongly, the Dodgers need to reassess their strategy for the upcoming games.
- Fan Engagement: The Mets’ faithful fans are energized, creating a daunting atmosphere for the Dodgers in the next games.
ALCS Game 2: Yankees Take Series Lead
Simultaneously, the American League Championship Series (ALCS) featured the New York Yankees against the Houston Astros. The Yankees managed to capitalize on home-field advantage, taking a commanding lead in the series. Here are the key highlights from Game 2 of the ALCS.
Yankees’ Dominance
- Power Hitting: The Yankees blasted 3 home runs in the game, with Aaron Judge hitting a pivotal solo shot in the 8th inning to extend the lead.
- Strong Pitching: The Yankees’ starting pitcher dominated the Astros, allowing only 2 runs over 6 innings.
- Defensive Plays: The Yankees made several critical defensive plays that prevented the Astros from gaining any momentum.
Game Summary
| Team | Runs | Hits | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Astros | 4 | 9 | 1 |
Takeaways from the ALCS Game 2
The Yankees’ victory has significant implications for the series:
- Series Lead: With a 2-0 lead, the Yankees put pressure on the Astros as they prepare to head to Houston for Game 3.
- Offensive Momentum: The Yankees are riding high on offensive momentum, and if they can maintain this energy, they could be on their way to the World Series.
- Injury Concerns: The Astros need to address any lingering injury concerns that may affect their performance moving forward.
Fan Reactions and Social Media Buzz
Both games sparked lively discussions on social media, with fans expressing their excitement and opinions on player performances. Here’s a glimpse of what fans are saying:
- The Mets’ victory tweet garnered thousands of retweets and comments, with fans praising Lindor’s clutch performance.
- Yankees fans are buzzing about Aaron Judge’s home run, calling it a game-changer and rallying around their team’s potential success.
Looking Ahead: What’s Next?
Upcoming Games
As the NLCS and ALCS progress, here’s what to expect:
- NLCS Game 3: Mets vs. Dodgers – Scheduled for October 15 at Citi Field.
- ALCS Game 3: Yankees vs. Astros – Scheduled for October 16 at Minute Maid Park.
Strategic Adjustments
Both teams will need to make strategic adjustments based on their Game 2 performances:
- Dodgers: Need to address their batting order and find ways to counter the Mets’ pitching strategy.
- Astros: Must focus on tightening their defense to avoid costly errors and capitalizing on scoring opportunities.
Conclusion
The NLCS and ALCS are shaping up to be thrilling showcases of talent, strategy, and resilience. With the Mets evening the series and the Yankees taking a commanding lead, baseball fans can expect intense competition in the days ahead. Keep an eye on both series as they unfold!
