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The NL West is becoming increasingly competitive, and Ken highlights a key factor in his thoughts on the NL Rookie of the Year. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge is experiencing attention akin to Barry Bonds, and we’ll be monitoring player trends. I’m Levi Weaver, alongside Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!
Standings Watch: NL West is now a race
If you had asked me to predict the most uncompetitive division back in March, I would have immediately named the NL West. The Dodgers invested over a billion dollars, and the Padres made a splash by acquiring Juan Soto. The Diamondbacks, fresh off a World Series run, finished 16 games behind L.A. last season. Could Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, and Eugenio Suárez really help them keep up? The Giants were solid yet unremarkable, and the Rockies were simply there.
However, the Padres and D-Backs both boast an 8-2 record over their last 10 games, sitting together at 66-53 and just 3 1/2 games behind the Dodgers. It’s a race, folks.
A major factor contributing to this situation is the Dodgers’ injury problems, which have been well-documented. Help is on the horizon — Clayton Kershaw and Mookie Betts (though back in right field) have returned. Max Muncy, Walker Buehler, and Tommy Edman will rejoin soon, but a lack of pitching depth continues to pose challenges. This year, at least 11 starting pitchers have been on the IL. River Ryan seemed to be an incredible find with a 1.33 ERA in his first four MLB starts, but he now has a UCL strain, meaning his season is finished.
On the other hand, despite yesterday’s setback, the Padres have been winning in thrilling ways. The Diamondbacks have performed impressively over the past week, managing a sweep against Cleveland and taking three out of four from Philadelphia.
Both teams are also facing their share of injuries. Luis Arraez of the Padres is playing through a torn ligament in his thumb. D-Backs starting pitcher Zac Gallen (cramps) and MVP candidate second baseman Ketel Marte (ankle) both exited early from Saturday’s game, though neither seems likely to head to the IL. Conversely, both first baseman Christian Walker and catcher Gabriel Moreno have recently landed on the IL.
Additionally, their success is making the NL wild-card race less compelling. They’re currently four games ahead of the Braves, who are hanging onto the final wild-card slot, while the suddenly-sinking Mets (a half-game back), Cardinals (1 1/2 games back), Giants (1 1/2 games back), and scrappy Cubs (3 games back) are all vying to squeeze in.
Ken’s Notebook: Nuances in the NL ROY Discussion
While it might seem premature to discuss awards, the competition for the National League Rookie of the Year is already looking exciting.
Two primary questions are likely to guide the conversation: Should an everyday player be favored over a pitcher? And how much weight should be given to players considered rookies, but who entered Major League Baseball as established international professionals?
With the season nearly three-fourths finished, the top NL candidates currently include Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes, Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, and Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill — though Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn, Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio, Cubs first baseman Michael Busch, and even Giants shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald also deserve recognition.
Imanaga, age 30, has spent eight seasons playing professionally in Japan but still qualifies as a rookie in MLB.
A first-year player in the Major League Baseball has joined the ranks of notable Japanese players who have received an AL or NL rookie award — specifically Hideo Nomo in 1995, Kazuhiro Sasaki in 2000, Ichiro Suzuki in 2001, and Shohei Ohtani in 2018. The challenges faced by these players in adapting to a different country, a new culture, and even a distinct style of baseball merit thorough consideration.
Therefore, the initial question is whether Imanaga (who has a 3.06 ERA over 123 1/3 innings) could be considered more deserving than Skenes (who holds a 2.25 ERA across 92 innings), especially if the Pirates decide to shut down Skenes before the season concludes. However, perhaps a more significant question is whether Imanaga or Skenes is more deserving compared to a position player like Merrill.
Before this season began, Merrill had participated in just 46 games above Class A and had never taken the field as a center fielder. Nonetheless, he secured a spot on the Padres’ Opening Day roster as their center fielder, and after a shaky start, he has become a cornerstone for a team on the rise.
With an impressive batting average of .291, 17 home runs, and an .806 OPS, Merrill stands out, particularly in a season where many young hitters have found the transition from the minors to the majors challenging. A recent spate of clutch home runs late in games has further bolstered Merrill’s case, potentially earning him some MVP votes.
According to Elias Sports and ESPN’s Sarah Langs, Merrill has tied the record for the second-most game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the eighth inning or later for a player aged 21 or younger since 1900, with five homers this season. The only player who surpasses him in this category at that age is Frank Robinson, who hit six in 1956.
If historical patterns hold true, Merrill could be viewed as the current frontrunner for the NL award, albeit narrowly. Of the 77 past rookie winners, 40 have been position players, accounting for 52 percent. Excluding Ohtani, who was recognized both as a pitcher and a hitter, the last starting pitcher to take home the award was Michael Fulmer from the Tigers in 2016, with only six other starters achieving the same recognition this century.
Prepare for a spirited discussion ahead. The remaining seven weeks will define how intense this debate will become.
Free Passes: Judge Getting Bonds Treatment
Andy McCullough highlights an emerging trend in baseball regarding managers signaling intentional walks by holding up four fingers when Aaron Judge steps up to the plate. During the Yankees’ latest nine-game homestand, Judge was walked a remarkable 12 times — with six of those being intentional walks.
- As shown in Sunday’s victory, this tactic is not infallible.“`html
- Rangers manager Bruce Bochy, who was an early adopter of “the Barry Bonds treatment” during his tenure with the Padres, chose to intentionally walk Judge in the fifth inning. Giancarlo Stanton capitalized on this decision with a powerful home run, allowing Judge to trot around the bases for three additional runs.
- In the seventh inning—following Juan Soto’s second home run of the game—Bochy let Andrew Chafin take the mound against Judge. This strategy also yielded no success. Judge’s 299th career home run marked the eighth run in an eventual 8-7 victory.
Leading the league with 42 home runs (projected at approximately 57), it’s no shock that teams have started employing this tactic. What is somewhat surprising is that they didn’t begin this approach sooner. Judge has received 12 intentional walks this season, sharing the league lead with Houston’s Yordan Álvarez. If the trend observed this week (six intentional walks in nine games) had been established on Opening Day, he would have accumulated 79—heading towards an astonishing 108 intentional walks for the season.
The record for the most intentional walks in a single season? That goes to Bonds, who was intentionally walked 68 times in 2002. This figure pales in comparison to the outrageous total of 120 in 2004. To put it into perspective, that year he had 617 plate appearances and 373 at-bats, yet still managed to hit 45 home runs—truly impressive.
Thumbs Up/Thumbs Down: Recent Performance Review
While ten games represent a small fraction of a 162-game season, this period provides insight into who is currently performing well right now. Let’s take a closer look at the recent trends.
Note: Unless specified otherwise, assume the White Sox remain in the thumbs down category. Since we’ve previously discussed the Padres and D-Backs, let’s diversify our observations.
Trending Up
👍 Houston Astros (62-55, 7-3 in last 10): After a three-game losing streak, they bounced back and swept the Red Sox over the weekend. Yordan Álvarez appears ready for the postseason, and Houston’s tie with …
👍 Seattle Mariners (63-56, 6-4): They recently completed a sweep of the Mets, maintaining a share of first place. With Julio Rodríguez back from the IL, they’re engaged in a fierce battle but are gaining momentum.
👍 Chicago Cubs (59-60, 7-3): Are we really sure they’re out of contention? Among the four teams ahead of them vying for a playoff spot, only the Giants (61-59, 7-3) have achieved a winning record in their last ten games.
Trending Down
👎 Cleveland Guardians (69-49, 3-7): Although they have secured two consecutive wins, this follows a seven-game losing streak. They had the chance to bury the Twins but did not capitalize. Nonetheless, they maintain a 3.5-game lead in the division.👎 Texas Rangers (55-63, 3-7): Once sitting 2.5 games back on July 25, they have since suffered five straight series defeats. Now, they find themselves 7.5 games behind, struggling for starting pitching, and almost out of contention.
👎 New York Mets (61-57, 4-6): We could have easily placed the Braves (61-56, 3-7) in this category as well, but we’ve already covered them. The Mets are just a half-game out of a playoff spot but squandered opportunities to secure one this week.
Handshakes and High Fives
The significant Guardians/Twins series we mentioned on Friday ended in a 2-2 split. Minnesota is now focused on maintaining a half-game lead over the visiting Royals.
An interesting note from Andrew Baggarly, who visited the Giants clubhouse to scout potential Olympians for the future.
Christian Moore, an Angels first-round draft pick, has been exceptionally hot lately. Furthermore, the Angels…
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Is Moore the next player to be called up, following a history of teams promoting prospects sooner than expected?
Since the age of 14, Rod Carew has called the United States his home. At 78 years old, he has finally achieved American citizenship.
Last year, Camilo Doval was an All-Star, but he currently finds himself in the minor leagues.
Most-clicked item in Friday’s newsletter: Jon Greenberg’s analysis of potential candidates to take over as manager of the White Sox following Pedro Grifol’s departure.
Most-read MLB article on the website yesterday: The initial installment of our Missing Bats series from June, where Andy McCullough delved into the rise of baseball’s fixation on strikeouts.
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| Until Saturday (Top photo of Merrill: Sam Navarro / USA Today)
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NL West Showdown: The Rise of the Padres and D-Backs Amidst Injury Woes, Plus Rookie of the Year Contenders Heat Up
The Current Landscape of the NL West
The National League West (NL West) has become a battleground in the 2023 MLB season. With the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks emerging as serious contenders, fans are witnessing an exciting race that’s intensified by injury challenges. This article delves into the rise of these teams, the impact of injuries, and highlights the Rookie of the Year contenders making headlines.
San Diego Padres: Overcoming Adversity
The San Diego Padres, once seen as underperformers, have shown significant improvement this season. Despite facing injury setbacks, they have managed to find their groove. Key players like Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have stepped up their game, contributing to a powerful lineup.
Injury Impact on Performance
- Injuries to Key Players: The Padres have dealt with injuries to crucial players, including starting pitcher Yu Darvish, which forced the team to adapt quickly and rely on their depth.
- Next-Man-Up Mentality: Players like Joe Musgrove and rookie sensation Jackson Merrill have filled the void, showcasing the team’s resilience.
Strengths of the Padres
Despite the injuries, the Padres possess several strengths:
- Offensive Firepower: Led by stars like Machado and Tatis Jr., the team has one of the top offenses in the league.
- Deep Bullpen: The bullpen, featuring Josh Hader, has held its ground, often providing crucial late-game support.
- Excellent Defense: The Padres rank high in defensive metrics, continuously making plays that save runs.
Arizona Diamondbacks: A Surprising Contender
The Arizona Diamondbacks have surprised many this season with their competitive play. Their combination of young talent and seasoned veterans has positioned them as a legitimate threat within the NL West.
Key Players on the Rise
- Corbin Carroll: The 2023 Rookie of the Year front-runner, Carroll has electrified fans with his speed and power.
- Ketel Marte: As a veteran presence, Marte’s consistent hitting has anchored the offense.
The Role of Coaching in Development
Manager Torey Lovullo has played a pivotal role in the Diamondbacks’ success. His focus on player development and strategic in-game decisions has yielded positive results:
“The key is instilling confidence in our young players and allowing them to thrive,” said Lovullo during a recent press conference.
Injury Woes: Challenges and Adaptations
Both the Padres and Diamondbacks have faced substantial injury woes throughout the season. Here’s how each team has responded:
Padres Injury Report
Player Position Status Yu Darvish SP On IL Manny Machado 3B Day-to-Day Fernando Tatis Jr. OF Probable Diamondbacks Injury Report
Player Position Status Zac Gallen SP On IL Christian Walker 1B Day-to-Day Carson Kelly C Probable Rookie of the Year Contenders Heating Up
As the MLB season progresses, the Rookie of the Year race is heating up, with several standout performances catching the attention of fans and analysts alike.
Top Contenders for Rookie of the Year
- Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks): With a batting average hovering around .295 and 20 home runs, Carroll has become a fan favorite.
- Jackson Merrill (Padres): The young infielder is showing remarkable promise, with strong defensive skills and a steady bat.
- Gunnar Henderson (Orioles): Though not an NL West player, Henderson is consistently mentioned in discussions due to his stellar rookie campaign.
Statistical Breakdown of Contenders
Player Team Batting Average Home Runs Corbin Carroll Diamondbacks .295 20 Jackson Merrill Padres .280 15 Gunnar Henderson Orioles .270 25 Benefits of Following the NL West Showdown
For fans and analysts, closely following the NL West showdown provides numerous benefits:
- Exciting Matchups: Each game between these competitors is crucial, making every pitch matter.
- Player Development Insights: Observing how teams handle injuries and develop rookies offers insights into successful franchise strategies.
- Future Predictions: Understanding current performance trends can help in predicting future successes or failures.
Practical Tips for Fans
As the NL West race heats up, here are some practical tips for fans:
- Stay Informed: Follow team news and injury reports to understand how rosters are shifting.
- Engage on Social Media: Participate in discussions and follow players for behind-the-scenes content.
- Attend Games: Experience the excitement live; the atmosphere at NL West games is electric!
First-Hand Experience: Fan Reactions
Fans have expressed their excitement over the current season:
“Watching the Padres and D-Backs battle it out has been thrilling. The intensity and skill on display are unmatched,” a passionate Padres fan shared.
As the season continues, the NL West showdown promises to deliver unforgettable moments, intense rivalries, and a spotlight on emerging talent. Keep your eyes on the Padres and D-Backs as they navigate injuries and strive for postseason glory!
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