Will Connor McDavid’s streak of seasons without a Hart Trophy extend to another year? Can Cale Makar return to his Norris-winning form? Is there anyone who can truly challenge Auston Matthews in the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy?
The 2024-25 NHL season is just around the corner, which means it’s time for The Athletic to gather predictions from its writers. Soon, we’ll share team predictions, including the Stanley Cup champion and the complete playoff picture. For now, we kick off with individual award forecasts.
To analyze the polling results, provide context, and offer insight, we’ve enlisted NHL senior writers James Mirtle and Sean Gentille, analytics expert Shayna Goldman, and betting analyst Jesse Granger.
GO DEEPER
NHL season previews 2024-25: Projecting each team from worst to first
Hart Trophy
Awarded to the player deemed most valuable to his team, as voted by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA).
Goldman: It’s news to no one that many of us are forecasting Connor McDavid as the league’s most valuable player. The way he propelled himself into a narrow competition last year following a sluggish start is remarkable, and now he has even more motivation to elevate his game after last season’s Stanley Cup defeat.
Gentille: Each year, I make an effort to select someone else. Year after year, I fail. Voters took a break last season, but I’m not convinced that will happen this time.
Granger: While McDavid is the obvious choice, I appreciate the reasoning behind the few who selected Jack Hughes. If the Devils live up to my expectations, Hughes should be part of the discussion. He has consistently approached the 100-point pace over the last two seasons. If he can hit the century mark and New Jersey returns as a contender, his odds of winning at 11-1 are quite appealing.
Rocket Richard Trophy
Awarded to the leading goal scorer at the conclusion of the regular season.
Mirtle: Matthews has averaged 60 goals per 82 games over the past five seasons. David Pastrnak, who finished second, trails by a full 10 goals. Selecting anyone other than the Leafs captain at this point feels like a contrarian stance.
Granger: I acknowledge that choosing Pastrnak was a contrarian move, yet I see a clear avenue for him to pursue the Rocket Richard if the Bruins’ power play improves. Last season, Boston was middle of the pack in this aspect, and Pastrnak managed only 12 goals on the power play. If he can approach the 18 he netted the previous year (or the“`html
Gentille: It seems many people are saying, “Hughes won his Norris, so it’s time to move on.” I understand this sentiment—I cast my vote for Makar as well—but it still feels somewhat strange.
Granger: Makar stands as the finest defenseman worldwide, and voters have had a couple of years to reset. He is the clear frontrunner, with oddsmakers also in agreement, as his odds sit at plus-250 to secure the award.
Selke Trophy
Awarded to the forward who exhibits the highest skill level in defensive play. The PHWA is responsible for the voting.
Mirtle: Can we consider Aleksander Barkov the new Patrice Bergeron? I’m inclined to agree. I opted for Matthews, but realistically, he won’t attract enough votes unless he begins to contribute to penalty kills. Given Toronto’s depth at center, this may indeed be feasible.
Goldman: Among all NHL awards, the voting for the Selke might be the least innovative. However, it’s likely that Barkov will again hold the upper hand—he has firmly established himself as the premier two-way player in the league. The competition for second place should prove interesting.
Gentille: Following the 2022-23 season, I believed Nico Hischier was closing the gap on Barkov, positioning himself as the expected Selke candidate post-Bergeron. However, last season saw him regress significantly.
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In my view, the standout candidate is undoubtedly Juuse Saros. He has already posted Vezina-worthy seasons, such as in 2022-23 when he saved an impressive 45.49 goals above expected, ranking third in the last 17 years, although he narrowly lost to Linus Ullmark. Saros is exceptional, and with the additional scoring support now in front of him, he could finally accumulate the victories necessary to vie for this prestigious award.
Goldman: Should Igor Shesterkin continue where he left off last season, he will be a force to be reckoned with. After a slow start, he surged up the ranks from February onward, reminding everyone why he is considered one of the best in the world. I believe he would face stiffer competition if Ilya Sorokin were entering the season fully healthy.
Gentille: I apologize to Jake Oettinger, but I refuse to repeat past mistakes. I’m all for making new ones.
Jack Adams Award
This award is given to the coach recognized for having made the most significant contribution to his team’s success, as voted on by the NHL Broadcasters’ Association.
| Coach | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
Mirtle: The Devils are poised for a significant rebound, thanks to substantial enhancements in both goalkeeping and defense. This seems justified, especially following the criticism directed at Sheldon Keefe over the past few years for failings that were largely not his doing.
Goldman: Honestly, I’m a bit surprised there isn’t more buzz surrounding Kris Knoblauch. Typically, coaches with elite rosters face scrutiny — which might explain why Jared Bednar has not secured this award. Andrew Brunette is also a strong candidate. However, the new coach effect can be substantial, making Keefe a reliable choice.
Gentille: Indeed, Knoblauch is likely to receive similar treatment as Mike Sullivan when it comes to the Jack Adams
Granger: Although it’s just preseason, Celebrini has already showcased remarkable talent on the ice alongside NHL players. I’m convinced … provided he stays healthy.
Gentille: The buzz around Matvei Michkov may be becoming excessive, yet he remains my selection. It’s quite feasible to picture him scoring 20-25 goals while maintaining a favorable relationship with John Tortorella.
MATVEI MICHKOV OT WINNER 🤯
The young player has tallied six points over three preseason games! pic.twitter.com/v1Mia4y7yH
— NHL (@NHL) September 29, 2024
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photos: Rob Curtis / Icon Sportswire; Patrick Smith, Rich Graessle / Getty Images)
NHL 2024-25 Season Predictions: Hart, Norris, and Rocket Richard Trophy Contenders
Understanding the Trophies
The NHL awards several prestigious trophies each season, with the Hart, Norris, and Rocket Richard being among the most sought after. Each trophy has its own criteria and significance:
- Hart Memorial Trophy: Awarded to the most valuable player (MVP) in the NHL as voted by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association.
- Norris Trophy: Given annually to the defenseman who demonstrates the greatest all-round ability in the position.
- Rocket Richard Trophy: Awarded to the NHL’s top goal scorer during the regular season.
Hart Trophy Contenders
As we approach the 2024-25 NHL season, several players are emerging as strong contenders for the Hart Trophy. Here are some key names to watch:
1. Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)
McDavid continues to dominate the NHL with his unparalleled skill and speed. Coming off another impressive season, he consistently ranks at the top of scoring lists and is known for his game-changing abilities.
2. Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Matthews showcased his goal-scoring prowess last season, leading his team with impressive numbers. His ability to perform under pressure makes him a perennial Hart candidate.
3. Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche)
MacKinnon’s combination of speed, strength, and offensive intelligence has made him a standout player. As the Avalanche aim for a deep playoff run, MacKinnon’s performance will be crucial.
4. Igor Shesterkin (New York Rangers)
The 2022 Hart Trophy winner has established himself as one of the best goaltenders in the league. His ability to steal games will keep him in the Hart conversation, especially if the Rangers perform well.
Norris Trophy Contenders
The Norris Trophy recognizes defensive excellence. This season, several defensemen are in the mix:
1. Cale Makar (Colorado Avalanche)
Makar is known for his exceptional skating and offensive contributions from the blue line. His ability to control the game makes him a favorite for the Norris Trophy.
2. Adam Fox (New York Rangers)
Fox continues to impress with his smart play and ability to contribute to both ends of the ice. His consistency in performances places him among the top contenders.
3. Roman Josi (Nashville Predators)
As a former Norris winner, Josi’s experience and leadership on the ice make him a perennial threat for the award. His offensive output combined with strong defensive play keeps him in contention.
4. Miro Heiskanen (Dallas Stars)
Heiskanen has emerged as a key player for the Stars, showcasing his two-way capabilities. His ability to log significant minutes and contribute offensively makes him a Norris contender.
Rocket Richard Trophy Contenders
The Rocket Richard Trophy is awarded to the player who scores the most goals in the regular season. Here are the top contenders for the upcoming season:
1. Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals)
The legendary forward continues to defy age with his scoring ability. Ovechkin remains a threat to lead the league in goals as he chases history.
2. Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton Oilers)
Draisaitl, playing alongside McDavid, has proven he can score at will. His combination of skill and opportunity makes him a favorite for the Rocket Richard Trophy.
3. Kirill Kaprizov (Minnesota Wild)
Kaprizov’s explosive style and natural goal-scoring ability have made him a rising star. He is expected to continue his ascent as one of the top scorers in the league.
4. David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins)
Pastrnak has consistently been among the league’s elite goal scorers. His knack for finding the net makes him a strong candidate for the Rocket Richard Trophy.
Trends and Insights for the 2024-25 Season
As we look forward to the upcoming season, several trends and insights can help fans and analysts predict which players may excel:
- Injury Management: Keeping key players healthy is crucial. Teams that can effectively manage their stars’ ice time often see better overall performance.
- Emerging Young Stars: Many teams are leaning on younger players to make immediate impacts. Watching rookies and second-year players can yield surprising results.
- Power Play Efficiency: Teams that excel on the power play often have players who are strong contenders for scoring titles and MVP awards.
Case Studies of Previous Winners
| Trophy | Winner | Team | Goals (or Pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hart | Connor McDavid | Edmonton Oilers | 120 Pts |
| Norris | Cale Makar | Colorado Avalanche | 60 Pts |
| Rocket Richard | Alex Ovechkin | Washington Capitals | 50 Goals |
Tips for Betting on Trophy Winners
For those interested in betting on NHL awards, consider these practical tips:
- Follow Player Form: Pay attention to players’ performance trends leading up to the season. Consistency can be indicative of future success.
- Monitor Team Success: Players on successful teams often garner more recognition, which can influence award voting.
- Injury Reports: Stay updated on injury news, as the absence of key players can drastically alter trophy contendership.
Engage with the Community
Discussing predictions and insights with fellow fans can enhance your understanding of the game. Consider joining forums or following social media accounts dedicated to NHL analysis for the latest discussions and updates.
