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Let’s begin with some encouraging news: there’s only room for improvement from here, right?
Last season, I undertook the challenge of selecting five teams that would surpass expectations, but let’s just say my selections fell short of that goal. The Memphis Grizzlies, Charlotte Hornets, Toronto Raptors, and Brooklyn Nets collectively finished with four of the seven worst records in the NBA. On the count of three: Yiiiikes. The sole exception that redeemed my efforts was the Houston Rockets.
The context: I implemented some modifications to my prediction model last year that I believed would enhance and streamline it. While I succeeded in simplifying it, I ultimately failed to make it more effective. True, the model became less complex, which is typically advantageous; however, it also became dumber and overlooked several crucial but subtle factors. Many of the teams I underestimated, for example, struggled with depth beyond their top seven players, and some of my playing time forecasts were overly simplistic, further drifting the model from reality.
Perhaps some of these misreads would have occurred regardless — the Grizzlies, in particular, seemed undervalued prior to being significantly impacted by injuries. Nevertheless, I have reinstated the methodology I utilized before the previous season, with a few minor adjustments. This time, armed with a year’s worth of experience, I’m ready to try again.
In light of that background, I will use the over-under win totals from BetMGM for the upcoming NBA season as a benchmark to gauge the median expectations for each team. Notably, these over-unders were consistent with other sportsbooks.
Below are the five teams I believe are most likely to outperform their expectations. My apologies in advance to these teams for potentially jinxing them.
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Among all the forecasts I have reviewed, betting on Cleveland to exceed its win total seems the most conspicuous choice available.“`html
Lon Tyson looked impressive in the summer league.
What reasons could lead me to be incorrect? A shift in coaching from J.B. Bickerstaff to Kenny Atkinson introduces a degree of uncertainty, and critics might argue that there isn’t substantial draft capital available for mid-season enhancements. Additionally, the luxury tax limit will also pose constraints.
If you wish to argue that this team could stumble again in the playoffs, I find that more plausible. The Cavs do not exactly radiate postseason potential. However, that’s not our current focus; we are discussing accumulating regular-season victories. Reaching 48 wins in the Eastern Conference appears to be a very achievable target for a team that has accomplished this in the last two seasons. In fact, one could convincingly argue that this could be the best Cavaliers team we’ve seen since LeBron James departed.
Last season, my only successful “under” bet was on the Suns, yet I believe the pendulum has swung too drastically in the opposite direction this time.
While it’s easy to harbor doubts about the Suns’ future, following their decision to part with every draft pick to invest in an aging team lacking a top-five league player, it’s considerably more challenging to be skeptical about the Suns’ present. Phoenix achieved 49 victories last season even though Bradley Beal managed only 53 games and the team lacked both a point guard and a solid bench. Though there are concerns regarding age with Kevin Durant at 36 and Beal at 31, many other factors point toward improvement for this team.
The performances of Durant and Devin Booker during the Olympics were promising signs that they can still perform at a high level, but the significant strides have been made with the remainder of the roster. Phoenix successfully addressed their major need for a point guard by acquiring Tyus Jones on a minimum contract and reinforced the position with Monte Morris. Additionally, they improved their backup center role by signing Mason Plumlee after Drew Eubanks underperformed last season, and now they will benefit from a full season with Royce O’Neale in the wing rotation. While it’s true that the lack of draft capital and the second apron of the collective bargaining agreement will render in-season acquisitions nearly impossible, the current roster appears quite solid.
GO DEEPER
How Tyus Jones can help boost the Suns’ hopes for contention
On the coaching front, while the former head coach Frank Vogel was effective, Mike Budenholzer has an outstanding history when it comes to increasing a team’s regular-season victories. In the playoffs… maybe not as much. Nevertheless, this is not our focus today. Even within a competitive Western Conference, which likely hosts a dozen playoff-capable teams, I believe the Suns can surpass 47 wins comfortably.
Setting an over-under becomes more difficult at extreme ends; a single significant injury (or, in the case of a struggling team, an unexpected success) can quickly draw you back towards mediocrity. Even for teams that appear strong on paper, numerous favorable circumstances must align for them to win two-thirds or more of their games.
NBA’s best offseason moves by team: Finalists crack top 10, but neither is No. 1
I’m not sure how high you’d have to set an over for the Thunder for me to get squeamish, but my answer is definitely “higher than this.” Unless Shai Gilgeous-Alexander slips on a banana peel, the Thunder have as plausible a pathway as any team to a 60-plus-win juggernaut.
The Thunder’s top eight players in minutes each were aged 25 or younger a season ago. They turned their biggest rotation liability (Josh Giddey) into ace defender Alex Caruso, and they upgraded their one glaring 2023-24 weakness (rebounding) by adding big man Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency. No longer will the best offensive play against this team be “miss a free throw.”
The 2024-25 Thunder would be pretty solid favorites to win a series against the 2023-24 Thunder. And remember, they might not be done: The Thunder have more ability than any other team to make in-season additions or upgrades, as they’re still sitting on a trove of draft picks, have multiple tradable contacts for salary matching and are miles from the CBA’s first apron. Add it all up, and I’m surprised Vegas didn’t set the bar a little higher.
Trae Young directs his teammates during a game last season against the Nets. (Dale Zanine / USA Today)
Am I being a homer? Possibly. The Hawks only won 36 games a season ago, and they traded away the second-best player by sending Dejounte Murray to New Orleans. Yes, they won the draft lottery, but they did it in the wrong year. Top pick Zaccharie Risacher may eventually pay big dividends, but for now, he’s a role player who will mostly play off the ball. There won’t be any Victor Wembanyama-esque takeovers happening here.
On the other hand, look at Atlanta’s incentives this season. Already owing their 2025 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs, the Hawks have no reason to tank, which already separates them from as many as six teams near the bottom of the East. Rising above that dross shouldn’t be challenging.
Even setting that part aside, when I see the Hawks, I see meh averageness, but I don’t see a bad enough team to lose 47 times in this conference. They upgraded their persistently leaky defense by adding Dyson Daniels and Risacher on the wings, might have a breakout second option in the criminally underrated Jalen Johnson and still have an elite offensive orchestrator in Trae Young and one of the league’s best sixth men in Bogdan Bogdanović.
They should be healthier too. Last season they lost Young for 27 games, Johnson for 25 and multiple secondary players for long stretches and still got to 36 wins. Between that and the upgrades on last year’s extremely shaky secondary depth (Larry Nance Jr., a healthy Kobe Bufkin and a full season of The Vít Krejčí Experience), Atlanta should be in better shape to weather the 82-game grind even if its injury luck doesn’t improve.
Additionally, the Hawks have some capability to do in-season roster upgrades with other team’s picks — one from the Sacramento Kings from the Kevin Huerter trade and two from the Murray trade. I’m not saying it should be Plan A, but it’s something to consider for a team with no tanking incentive when you’re evaluating whether it’ll lose 47 times.
Maybe that just means another trip to the Play-In, but for a team that has been as average as average gets the last three years, 35.5 wins isn’t that big a hurdle.
Do you know how bad you have to be to lose 58 games in the East?
Well, the Pistons do. (Rim shot.)
Seriously, the bar is now low enough in Detroit that even the Pistons should have little trouble skipping over it. While there is the depressing fact that the Pistons would not have cleared a 24.5-win over-under in any season since 2018-19 (I hear you, Detroit fans: “Hey, buddy, we pro-rated to 24.8 in the COVID year!”), new management under Trajan Langdon and a new coach in the previously mentioned Bickerstaff augurs more hopefully for the coming season.
Those two have a toe-high bar to clear to be considered upgrades in the wake of the disastrous Troy Weaver-Monty Williams tag team. In particular, some of the tragic spacing and baffling lineup decisions that plagued last season’s Pistons should go out the window with the coaching change, while the curious roster decisions of yore have been replaced by something more closely resembling an actual plan.
As with a few other teams I’ve mentioned, health should be a factor too. The Pistons low-key had enough injuries that only two players played more than 63 games last season. Usually that’s the one area in which a young, rebuilding team doesn’t have issues, but the 2023-24 Pistons were special.
Now the bad news: There still isn’t elite talent here. The front office, however, has assembled a more credible roster, with legit shooters around Cade Cunningham and centers who will actually be playing center. Even amid last season’s disaster, the numbers say the team was quasi-respectable (OK, “run-of-the-mill bad” as opposed to “historically bad”) as long as Los Tanque Comandantes Killian Hayes and James Wiseman weren’t on the floor.
look at this conference. With the Nets and Washington Wizards in full-on tank mode and teams such as the Hornets, Bulls and Raptors not exactly poised to take the league by storm, wins should be there for the taking. Plan the parade route, Detroit: This is the year the 25-win barrier goes down.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Getty; photos of Kevin Durant, Darius Garland and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: David Sherman, Adam Glanzman, Cooper Neill / NBAE via Getty Images)
NBA Teams Poised to Exceed Expectations: A New Look at Over-Under Predictions for the Upcoming Season
Understanding Over-Under Win Totals
In the NBA, sports betting enthusiasts often look to over-under win totals as a way to gauge team performance expectations for the upcoming season. For example, if oddsmakers set the Charlotte Hornets at 35.5 wins, bettors can wager whether the team will finish with more or fewer wins than this total [[1](https://www.covers.com/nba/win-totals-odds)]. These predictions are based on a variety of factors, including player acquisitions, injuries, and historical performance.
Key Factors Influencing Over-Under Predictions
- Player Transactions: Trades and free agency signings can dramatically shift a team’s potential.
- Injury Reports: The health of star players is crucial; a key injury can lower expectations.
- Coaching Changes: New philosophies can either uplift a team or lead to uncertainty.
- Statistical Analysis: Previous seasons’ data provides insight into a team’s likely performance.
Teams Likely to Exceed Expectations in the 2024-25 NBA Season
1. Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons are a young team with emerging talent that could surprise many if they harness their potential. With the addition of key players in the draft and during free agency, their over-under win total is set modestly, making them a candidate for exceeding expectations.
2. New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans are another team that could outperform their projected win total. With Zion Williamson healthy and back on the court, the Pelicans have the potential to become a competitive force in the Western Conference. Their current over-under line reflects skepticism about their consistency, but if they can stay healthy, they could surpass it.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder have a bright future with a young core led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The growth of their younger players and the development of chemistry could lead to more wins than predicted. Analysts believe that their over-under might be low considering their trajectory.
Analyzing the 2024-25 Over-Under Win Totals
| Team | Projected Wins | Key Players | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 27.5 | Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey | Young talent adapting to the league |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 39.5 | Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram | Healthy roster could push for playoff contention |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 34.5 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey | Emerging star power and team chemistry |
Benefits of Following Over-Under Predictions
- Informed Betting: Understanding over-under lines helps sports bettors make more educated wagers.
- Team Analysis: Fans gain insights into their favorite teams’ strengths and weaknesses.
- Engagement: Keeping track of these totals increases interest in games throughout the season.
Tips for Betting on NBA Over-Under Totals
- Research Team Performance: Look at historical data and player statistics to gauge expectations.
- Monitor Injuries: Staying updated on player health can significantly impact a team’s performance.
- Follow Trends: Some teams perform better in certain matchups; understanding this can provide an edge.
- Stay Informed: Regularly check news updates, injury reports, and expert analyses.
Case Study: The Rise of the Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings had a remarkable season last year, far exceeding their win totals. Analysts initially underestimated the team’s growth, but with the emergence of young talent like De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, they proved the skeptics wrong. Their success serves as a valuable lesson for this season; teams like the Kings can inspire bettors to consider the potential for surprises.
First-Hand Experiences: Bettor Insights
Many seasoned bettors emphasize the importance of evaluating team chemistry and individual player performances before placing bets on over-under totals. As one bettor noted, “Following up on player workouts in the offseason gave me an edge in predicting the Kings’ success last year.” Such insights can make a substantial difference in betting strategies.
Conclusion
With the 2024-25 NBA season on the horizon, the excitement surrounding over-under predictions is palpable. Teams like the Detroit Pistons, New Orleans Pelicans, and Oklahoma City Thunder have the potential to exceed expectations based on their rosters and recent developments. By staying informed and analyzing the factors that influence these predictions, fans and bettors alike can enhance their experience of the season.
