In December 2020, with arenas empty of fans and team owners grappling with increasing lines of credit and loans, NBA commissioner Adam Silver mentioned that the league was re-evaluating the idea of expansion for the first time in nearly twenty years.
Over the last three years since he introduced this notion, a new industry has emerged, stirring considerable anticipation. Potential ownership groups have been discreetly gathering funds, and two different firms have unveiled plans for new arenas in Las Vegas. Additionally, LeBron James has publicly advocated for Silver to grant him a team. All of this is on standby, awaiting the league’s approval.
During the Finals in June, Silver fueled the discussion on expansion further. He indicated that following the successful completion of a new collective bargaining agreement with the players last year and a new national TV rights deal finalized in July, the topic of expansion would be on the agenda.
Last week, at the annual fall board of governors meeting in New York, Silver provided an update, stating that the league would address expansion “at some point this season,” though he noted it wouldn’t happen just yet.
So when will this occur? Where? Who will be involved? Why are they considering this? How will it unfold?
NBA Insiders Tim Bontemps, Kevin Pelton, and Brian Windhorst offer the latest insights from their discussions with sources within and around the NBA regarding the complexities surrounding this significant league-changing process.
Jump to: Seattle, Las Vegas or … Mexico City?
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Adam Silver on NBA expansion: We are not quite ready yet
NBA commissioner Adam Silver explains why he and the league’s board of governors are not yet prepared to engage in discussions concerning expansion.
When might the NBA welcome a new team or teams?
This is a dynamic and unpredictable situation. The last time the NBA announced expansion was in 2002, leading to the Charlotte Bobcats starting play in October 2004. However, this comparison isn’t entirely fair, as the league had no consideration for other cities at that time and was simply replacing a relocated team (the Hornets transitioned to New Orleans that year), which expedited the process.
Since Silver has not yet fully committed to expansion and the timeline for initiating the process remains ambiguous, both league insiders and individuals involved in potential bidding groups are aiming for the 2027-28 season. While starting as early as 2026-27 isn’t impossible, it seems increasingly less feasible.
While this may appear to be a lengthy wait, particularly for fans in cities longing for a team, the process encompasses multiple phases: determining the necessity of expansion, selecting cities, choosing ownership groups in what could be a broad bidding process, and allowing new teams to establish necessary infrastructure.
Why consider expansion now?
This is a question that the league’s governors have been informally mulling over for several years and are likely to discuss formally soon.
The crux of the expansion debate lies in its economic implications. The main concern is whether the benefits of introducing new teams, along with the risk of watering down collective revenue shares, particularly media rights, justify the potential short- and long-term gains.
As it stands, each NBA team holds a 3.3% stake in the league and shares revenue accordingly. While distributing revenue among 32 teams dilutes the sharing slightly, over decades, these percentage points could translate into substantial amounts.
Conversely, the expansion fee—the payment made by new ownership groups directly to current owners for the right to establish new teams—could provide existing teams with a significant short-term financial boost and expand the league’s footprint, potentially leading to beneficial long-term effects.
Is expansion a certainty?
Two major factors may have shifted momentum in favor of expansion. First, franchise valuations are currently on an upswing. The Minnesota Timberwolves were sold
in 2021, valuing at $1.5 billion (although that sale is still pending). Since then, three teams have changed hands for over $3 billion, including the Phoenix Suns, which sold for $4 billion in 2023.
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At present, the Boston Celtics are on the market, and reports suggest they might achieve the highest sale price ever for an NBA team, a record currently held by Mat Ishbia after acquiring the Suns. This could further reshape the market dynamics, contributing to the NBA’s more cautious approach towards expansion, as league sources indicate they wish to wait for that sale to finalize.
With these valuations, two new expansion teams could yield over $10 billion for the league, equating to each team receiving more than $300 million as the newcomers join the league. This prospect is highly appealing and far exceeds what Commissioner Silver might have anticipated when he revised his view on expansion back in 2020.
Depending on the timing of any potential bidding process and other factors such as the global economy, estimating $10 billion for the two teams might even be a conservative figure.
Additionally, since the NBA secured a new television deal over the summer worth $76 billion for the next 11 years, concerns about slightly diminishing shared income streams have been eased. However, this does not guarantee that expansion will occur. Some team owners remain skeptical about the long-term financial viability of expanding the league.
Would expansion fees affect the salary cap?
No. The expansion fees are paid directly to the current owners, which is part of why the notion of expansion is appealing to them.
Do the players have any input?
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The ultimate decision regarding expansion lies with the NBA’s board of governors, which would need to vote to permit the addition of two new members. While the National Basketball Players Association has influence over certain matters—such as possibly shortening the schedule—decisions about adding teams do not fall within their purview.
However, the prospect of creating an additional 30 jobs (or 36 with two-way contracts) is one that the union would likely support, according to sources.
Which cities might receive teams?
For quite some time, Seattle and Las Vegas have been viewed as the leading candidates. Nevertheless, it should not be assumed that the NBA will choose them for certain.
Why Seattle?
Seattle has been the largest market without an NBA team since the Sonics relocated to Oklahoma City in 2008 and has grown more appealing from a professional sports perspective due to a technology boom driven by Amazon, the league’s latest broadcasting partner.
Historically, the significant hurdle for the NBA’s return to Seattle was the absence of a suitable replacement for KeyArena, which was considered outdated by
The league experienced a transition following the Seattle SuperSonics’ relocation. This changed in 2021 with the opening of the revamped Climate Pledge Arena, which became the home to the NHL’s expansion team Kraken and the WNBA’s Storm.
Even though it has been over 16 years since the Sonics departed, their legacy remains strong. Fans who grew up cheering for the Sonics, particularly those who were captivated by the dynamic duo of Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp during the 1996 NBA Finals, are now passing their enthusiasm on to the next generation. A newly formed fan-led organization, Seattle NBA Fans, will hold an event next week to highlight the city’s capability of supporting the Sonics 2.0.
LeBron James has shown an interest in establishing an NBA franchise in Las Vegas. Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images
Why Las Vegas?
Over the past generation, Las Vegas has unofficially become the NBA’s 31st city. The annual summer league in Las Vegas has evolved over the last decade into the NBA’s equivalent of Comic-Con, attracting hundreds of thousands of fans each July. Furthermore, Vegas has been designated as the annual venue for the championship rounds of the league’s newly established Emirates Cup (previously known as the “in-season tournament”).
The city has also experienced a remarkable surge in sports popularity recently, with the arrival of the Raiders from Oakland, the Aces relocating from San Antonio, and the Golden Knights entering the NHL as an expansion team. Additionally, if John Fisher succeeds, the Athletics are expected to come from Oakland as well. Consequently, Las Vegas emerges as a natural contender for a potential second team alongside Seattle.
Are there other cities that could try to get a team?
According to numerous league and team sources we’ve consulted, Seattle and Las Vegas appear to be the most logical choices for the addition of new expansion teams. However, the process may not be entirely straightforward and could involve unexpected developments.
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If another city were to enter the conversation, Mexico City would likely be the frontrunner. As the most populated city in North America, Mexico City has consistently hosted regular-season NBA games since 1992, boasting the highest total of 33 games outside the United States and Canada. It is also home to the G League’s Capitanes and could offer the league a new international city and access to Latin and South American markets. Nevertheless, significant logistical challenges must be overcome for an NBA team to operate there full-time.
Vancouver and Montreal have previously been suggested as candidates, along with Kansas City and Louisville, both of which already possess NBA-caliber arenas. Other cities like San Jose and Austin are also potential homes for teams, but face local competition – San Jose with the Golden State Warriors and Austin with the San Antonio Spurs, who already host regular-season games there.
Who are potential owners in Seattle?
The ownership group of the Kraken, led by Samantha Holloway and her father, founding owner David Bonderman, is preparing to submit a bid. This group has strong connections to the NBA; Bonderman has been part of the Celtics’ ownership group since their 2002 sale. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and the sons of former Sonics owner Barry Ackerley are also included in the Kraken’s ownership structure.
In a letter to Kraken season-ticket holders issued in May, Holloway announced that the organization is in the process of forming “a parent brand that will umbrella the Kraken brand and prepare for other significant opportunities.” The Kraken are expected to formally announce this parent company soon.
along the lines of Vulcan Sports, which owns the NBA’s Portland Trail Blazers and the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks, a prospective ownership group is emerging. Furthermore, longtime NBA executive and Seattle native Rick Welts has been brought on as an advisor, according to sources. Welts, who recently served as president of the Golden State Warriors, embarked on his Hall of Fame career as a ballboy with the Sonics.
Chris Hansen, who led a failed bid to acquire the Sacramento Kings in 2013 with intentions to relocate them to Seattle, is not anticipated to spearhead an expansion team bid, as per sources. Hansen has consistently emphasized that the return of the Sonics is his primary objective and remains willing to support any successful bidder from Seattle.
The Seattle Supersonics boasted a vibrant NBA legacy and a dedicated fan base before relocating to Oklahoma City in 2008. Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images
Will a Seattle team be the SuperSonics? Will they preserve the franchise’s history prior to 2008?
In brief: yes and yes.
The agreement between the Thunder’s ownership and the city of Seattle, which resolved a lawsuit concerning the team’s arena lease and enabled their move to Oklahoma City, specified that the name SuperSonics, including all related logos, colors, and trademarks, would be conferred to the owner of a new NBA team, once approved to play at a renovated KeyArena, at no cost.
This agreement outlined the shared ownership terms of the Sonics’ history, covering aspects like the team’s championship trophy from 1979 and retired jerseys. Formally, the NBA merges the histories of both teams, recognizing Payton as Oklahoma City’s all-time games played leader, for instance.
However, the Thunder do not display any SuperSonics banners in Oklahoma City, and their media guide omits any Seattle statistics, listing Russell Westbrook as the team’s all-time leader in assists instead of Payton.
Sources indicate that should a team return to Seattle, the Thunder would relinquish the Seattle history back to the SuperSonics, similar to how the NBA’s Charlotte Hornets reclaimed their history from the New Orleans Pelicans when Charlotte transitioned from the Bobcats to the Hornets in 2014.
Who are the prospective owners in Las Vegas?
One name stands out prominently: LeBron James.
For nearly a decade, James has openly expressed his ambition to join Michael Jordan as a legendary player turned team owner and to become a true shareholder in the NBA. His off-court investment strategies, including acquiring equity in teams like the Boston Celtics, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Liverpool FC ownership group Fenway Sports, have been made with this goal in mind.
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James has also cultivated relationships with wealthy sports investors like John Henry and Gerry Cardinale, who could become partners in a bid for an expansion team. He visited Saudi Arabia last year, meeting with Badr bin Abdullah Al Saud, a royal family member and the kingdom’s culture minister. In recent times, the Saudi government has begun investing in Western sports, and in 2022, the NBA permitted sovereign wealth funds to acquire up to 20% stakes in teams.
Whether appearing in exhibition games in Las Vegas, earning MVP honors at the inaugural NBA Cup in the city, or playing with Team USA, James has repeatedly conveyed his desire to own an expansion team there.
The NBA currently enforces a rule prohibiting active players from holding ownership stakes in a team, a stipulation that surfaced in 2001 when Jordan returned from retirement and was required to divest his share of the Washington Wizards. League sources have suggested that since the expansion process has not yet commenced, specific discussions regarding the governing rules, including this one, have yet to take place.
Nonetheless, if the next expansion franchises are slated to begin play in the 2027-28 season, this aligns well with the conclusion of James’ current contract.
Current contract with the Lakers, scheduled to last until the 2026-27 season.
Are there other potential owners in the mix in Las Vegas?
According to sources, former Milwaukee Bucks owner Marc Lasry is assembling a group to bid on a possible expansion team in Las Vegas, which includes WNBA icon Candace Parker, among others. Additionally, various groups are also investigating opportunities in both Las Vegas and Seattle. However, until the NBA initiates the process and clarifies the franchise pricing, no official announcements regarding interest are expected.
If two teams are added in the West, what will happen to the conferences?
If the two new franchises are granted to Seattle and Las Vegas, both would join the Western Conference. This scenario would create an imbalance, with 15 teams in the Eastern Conference and 17 in the West, prompting the need to shift one team from the West to the East for balance.
The decision is likely to fall among three teams: the Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, and Memphis Grizzlies. Geographically, the Pelicans and Grizzlies are the easternmost teams in the Western Conference, although they are short flights from several opponents in the West (including each other, all three Texas teams, and the Thunder).
In contrast, Minnesota is located further west but is more geographically isolated. The Timberwolves’ closest Western Conference rival by air miles is the Denver Nuggets (680 miles away). Comparatively, Minnesota has five eastern cities (Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit, and Cleveland) that are shorter trips, plus a sixth (Toronto) that is the same distance.
Determining which team will move east may be a lengthy debate, yet the geographical facts suggest Minnesota is the most logical candidate.
What impact could expansion have on the NBA playoff format? What about the NBA Cup?
In terms of the playoffs, increasing the number of teams to 32 should not alter the existing format. Each conference would likely gain an additional team, and the current playoff rules would remain applicable post-expansion. A total of ten teams would qualify for the postseason—six directly and four through the play-in tournament. Furthermore, six teams instead of the current five would head directly to the lottery.
Moreover, expanding to 32 teams could bring positive changes for the Emirates Cup. At present, the league divides the tournament’s group stage into six groups of five, which prevents all teams from playing on the final day of group play due to the uneven number of teams in each group.
A pool of 32 teams would enable the NBA to adopt a format similar to the 32-team World Cup: eight groups of four teams, where each team plays the others once (or twice, depending on the desired length of the group stage). In this structure, 16 teams could advance to the knockout stage, taking the top two teams from each group, or alternatively, each group winner could progress, mirroring the existing quarterfinal-semifinal-final format.
Coming Wednesday: An explanation of the expansion draft process, along with the Hoop Collective’s mock expansion draft.
NBA Expansion on the Horizon: What to Expect and When to Expect It
The NBA landscape is evolving, with discussions surrounding expansion becoming increasingly prevalent. As the league looks to grow, fans and analysts alike are buzzing with excitement about potential new franchises. In this article, we will explore the current state of NBA expansion, what to expect in the coming years, and the implications for teams and fans. Read on to find out all you need to know about the NBA’s expansion prospects.
Current State of NBA Expansion
Over the past few years, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has hinted at the possibility of expansion. The league currently consists of 30 teams, and with the growing popularity of basketball, many believe that the NBA is ripe for new franchises. Cities such as Seattle and Las Vegas have frequently been mentioned as potential locations for new teams. Let’s delve deeper into the current state of NBA expansion.
Key Factors Driving Expansion
- Market Demand: The demand for basketball is higher than ever, with viewership increasing in various demographics.
- Successful Global Events: Events like the NBA Global Games have shown the league’s potential to expand its audience.
- Franchise Value: NBA teams have seen significant increases in valuation, making expansion a lucrative venture.
Potential Locations for Expansion Teams
Several cities have emerged as frontrunners for NBA expansion teams. Let’s take a closer look at the most talked-about locations:
1. Seattle
Seattle is often considered the most likely candidate for an NBA expansion team. The city previously hosted the Seattle SuperSonics, who relocated to Oklahoma City in 2008. The strong basketball culture and a passionate fanbase make Seattle a prime location for a new franchise.
2. Las Vegas
Las Vegas has quickly become a hotspot for sports, with the NHL’s Golden Knights and the NFL’s Raiders calling the city home. The NBA has also hosted summer league games in Las Vegas, underscoring the city’s appeal. The potential for a new franchise would further enhance its status as a sports destination.
3. Mexico City
With a population of over 20 million, Mexico City represents a massive market for basketball. The NBA has already held regular-season games in the city, which indicates the league’s willingness to explore international expansion.
4. Other Considerations
Other cities like Louisville, Nashville, and Charlotte are also being considered for potential expansion due to their growing interest in basketball and existing infrastructure for sports teams.
What to Expect in the Expansion Process
As the NBA considers expansion, there are several key steps and considerations involved in the process:
1. Assessment of Market Viability
The NBA will conduct thorough research to assess the economic viability of potential markets. Factors such as population size, demographics, and existing sports franchises will play a significant role in their decision-making process.
2. Franchise Fee Structure
The NBA’s expansion franchise fees are expected to be substantial, potentially ranging from $2 billion to $3 billion based on recent trends in franchise valuations. This financial commitment is crucial for the league to maintain its competitive balance.
3. Team Structure and Distribution of Talent
The league will need to consider how to evenly distribute talent among existing teams and expansion teams. This may involve a new expansion draft where existing teams can protect certain players while allowing newcomers to build their rosters.
Benefits of NBA Expansion
Expanding the NBA offers numerous benefits that extend beyond just introducing new teams:
- Increased Revenue: New franchises mean more merchandise sales, ticket sales, and broadcasting rights, boosting the league’s overall revenue.
- Broader Fan Engagement: The inclusion of new markets allows the NBA to tap into diverse fanbases and foster a greater love for basketball.
- Enhanced Competition: More teams could lead to increased competition, making the league more exciting for players and fans alike.
Practical Tips for Fans and Aspirants
If you’re a fan or aspiring player interested in the future of the NBA, here are some practical tips to stay engaged:
1. Follow NBA News
Stay updated with credible sports news outlets and the NBA’s official website for announcements regarding expansion plans.
2. Engage with Local Basketball Communities
Join local basketball clubs or community events to connect with other enthusiasts and stay active in the sport.
3. Attend NBA Events
Participate in NBA Summer League games or pre-season events to experience the excitement of basketball firsthand.
Case Studies: Successful Sports Expansion
To understand the potential success of NBA expansion, let’s take a look at some successful expansions in other sports:
NHL Expansion in Las Vegas
| Year | Team | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Vegas Golden Knights | Inaugural season: Made it to the Stanley Cup Finals. |
MLS Expansion Success
| Year | Team | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Portland Timbers | Instant fan support, sold out games. |
| 2019 | Inter Miami CF | Strong market engagement and star players. |
First-Hand Experience: Voices from the Fans
Fans are central to the NBA’s success, and their voices reflect the excitement surrounding potential expansion. Here are some sentiments expressed by basketball enthusiasts:
- “Having a team in Seattle would bring back the basketball culture that was lost with the SuperSonics’ departure.”
- “Las Vegas is the perfect place for an NBA team; the atmosphere would be electric!”
- “I’d love to see more international games in Mexico City; it would expand the game’s reach.”
Conclusion
With the NBA potentially on the brink of expansion, fans and analysts are eagerly watching to see how the landscape of professional basketball will evolve. The factors driving this expansion, potential cities for new teams, and the benefits that come with it paint a promising picture for the future of the NBA. Whether you’re a die-hard fan, an aspiring player, or just a casual observer, the excitement surrounding NBA expansion is palpable and worth following closely.
