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Fantasy points can be accumulated without any actual NFL points being scored, yet there is generally a correlation between a team’s scoring and the performance of fantasy players. The success of a team hinges on the performance of its individual players every Sunday, and player performance is influenced by having suitable teammates, effective coaching, and the quality of the opponent.
Week 5 captured attention for its numerous high-scoring games, including the matchups of Baltimore vs. Cincinnati and Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville. Contrary to the belief that 2024 might be a low-scoring year, prior to Week 5, the average points per game (PPG) stood at 21.58, slightly down from 21.76 in 2023. Over the past decade, scoring per game has remained notably stable, peaking in 2020 at 23.34 PPG, a year characterized by record highs for passing touchdowns (871) and rushing touchdowns (535), each surpassing previous records by a significant margin.
In Week 5, the PPG excitement rose to 24.47, raising the season average to 22.05 PPG.
Breaking it down further, eight teams — Baltimore (41), Cincinnati (38), Indianapolis (34), Chicago (36), Atlanta (36), Jacksonville (37), Denver (34), and the NY Giants (29) — exceeded their 2024 season averages by more than 10 points during Week 5. Only two teams, Buffalo and New Orleans, managed to score 10 or more points under their season average in this week.
Considering the impact of matchups on this high-scoring week, only Indianapolis and Baltimore faced defenses that ranked in the top 10 for points allowed per game (against Cincinnati and Jacksonville, respectively). The Giants, Jaguars, and Falcons found themselves up against defenses that rank in the bottom third of the league in points allowed.
This situation indicates that while past performance can provide insights, predictions remain limited.
Looking ahead, we can leverage the concept of regression to some degree, but we can’t rely on it entirely. The league evolves from year to year. For instance, Washington has emerged as the highest-scoring team. While many anticipated Jayden Daniels would have a significant fantasy impact, few, if any, expected this offense to transform from one of the worst to the best. Conversely, New Orleans, a team we anticipated would be merely average, started the season incredibly strong with 92 points in their first two games but is now regressing. Injuries have hindered Miami and Philadelphia’s progress, both of which stand out as potential positive regression candidates once fully healthy.
Now, let’s examine this week’s fantasy superstars while determining which performances are sustainable (fact) and which may be mere coincidences (fluke).
Baltimore: Isaiah Likely, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Lamar Jackson
Jackson delivered a flawless performance, throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns, while rushing for 55 yards with no errors. He connected with nine different receivers, with Zay Flowers shining brightly (7 receptions for 111 yards), even without scoring a touchdown. Likely secured two short touchdown receptions, showcasing his strength, though his overall usage (three targets for an 8% target share and 13 yards) was underwhelming.
Mark Andrews is the player many hoped to spotlight here, but he has not met expectations. Although his 4 catches for 55 yards marked“`html
It’s evident that Chase Brown has been outperforming Zack Moss over the past two games. This situation will likely remain a committee approach unless Moss is sidelined due to his ankle injury. However, the preseason excitement surrounding Brown seems to have some validity. I would recommend waiting for a more favorable matchup, such as against Cleveland in Week 7 or Las Vegas in Week 9, to fully invest your trust in Brown (unless Moss is unavailable).
Atlanta: Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Darnell Mooney
Indeed, that was impressive.
Since this was a Thursday game, I won’t dwell on the previous excitement but will instead focus on what’s ahead. Next up for the Falcons is a game against Carolina, which should please both their fans and fantasy managers. This situation favors starting your players, including Bijan Robinson (with hopes to the football deities).
The encouraging news is that Tyler Allgeier isn’t significantly cutting into Robinson’s workload, which remains around half of the running back opportunities. I would bet that Cousins won’t achieve 500 passing yards again this season, especially with the Panthers being a team against whom you want to favor the running game (more hopes).
Chicago: Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, D’Andre Swift
I’ve been quite critical of both Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offensive start in 2024. Before this game, they were middle-of-the-pack in scoring but near the bottom in passing touchdowns (0.8 per game) and passing yardage (191 per game).
Nonetheless, recent trends looked promising leading up to Williams’ impressive Week 5 performance. This was his third consecutive game without a turnover, and his two passing touchdowns to Moore represented his fifth successful connection over the last three games. While both his efficiency and accuracy have seen improvement, it is also important to mention that his two strongest outings occurred against weaker defenses in Indianapolis and Carolina.
Moore was evidently Williams’ preferred target, and the increase in aerial success has enabled Swift to deliver two consecutive fantasy-winning performances. Although I anticipate more growth-related challenges for the Bears, another favorable matchup against Jacksonville in Week 6 could alleviate some of the difficulties. I’m fully backing Chicago this weekend.
Indianapolis: Joe Flacco, Alec Pierce
Refer to the previous note; while I’m not overly enthusiastic about Flacco, the Jaguars’ lackluster defense can greatly benefit a quarterback. This season, no team has surrendered more fantasy points to quarterbacks or wide receivers. They are also rated fourth-worst against running backs. Pierce significantly profited from Flacco’s strong arm, catching all three of his targets for 134 yards and a touchdown, but Josh Downs (12) and Michael Pittman Jr. (8) were the receivers Flacco seemed to target most frequently.
Pierce has certainly established some credibility for big plays this season; however, I generally prefer to rely on opportunities, particularly in PPR or half-PPR formats. Their next opponent is Tennessee, a team giving up an average number of points but performing below the league average in defensive points allowed to quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers (32nd in the league). I plan
He threw for two touchdowns, indicating promising signs. Thomas significantly outperformed everyone else in target share with eight receptions, catching five passes for 122 yards and a touchdown.
Bigsby emerged as the biggest surprise of the day, carrying the ball 13 times compared to Travis Etienne Jr.’s six, and achieved an impressive average of 7.8 yards per carry while scoring two touchdowns. He’s definitely a player to keep an eye on. While I believe in his potential, I don’t think Jacksonville is finished with Etienne; this performance might just motivate him for next week’s matchup against Chicago. That game is scheduled to take place in London, and I’m predicting that the Bears will control the time of possession and exploit the weaknesses of the Jaguars’ defense.
If I can choose someone like Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, or Derek Carr (if he’s healthy) instead of Lawrence, I would definitely make that switch.
Denver: Bo Nix, Javonte Williams
Denver surpassed its season average in Week 5 by 18.5 points, nearly doubling it. However, Nix is the sole player worth highlighting here. He was responsible for three touchdowns, including a rushing touchdown from the goal line, and passed for just over 200 yards. Maintaining a mistake-free game was crucial for the Broncos’ success, marking the third game this season without Nix throwing any interceptions.
A divisional matchup against L.A. is next, and the Chargers have surprisingly proven to be the stingiest defense in the league this season, allowing only 12.5 points per game (against the Raiders, Panthers, Steelers, and Chiefs). Nix completed passes to 11 different players, including three tight ends and a fullback. Javonte Williams recorded 5 catches for 50 yards and added 61 rushing yards, earning him the title of most valuable skill player, though it wasn’t a performance that would win any matchups. Proceed with caution when considering any Denver skill players for your fantasy lineups in Week 6.
NY Giants: Daniel Jones, Darius Slayton, Tyrone Tracy, Jr.
Jones has quietly delivered three fantasy-starter-worthy performances this season during Weeks 2, 3, and 5. These games were against his easiest matchups, but Week 5 was particularly notable due to the absence of Malik Nabers, who could probably make me look somewhat competent at throwing the football. This marked Jones’ third game this year with over 200 yards passing, two touchdowns, and no errors.
I find it hard to fully trust him after last year’s disappointments, but he is capable of delivering some fantasy-relevant games.
While I believe Slayton’s performance of 8 receptions for 122 yards and one touchdown on 11 targets is unlikely to be repeated, he’s known to fantasy managers for his inconsistent appearances. I’ll chalk it up to being a fluke. The more intriguing development is Tracy, who ran the ball 18 times for 129 yards.
This level of efficiency and usage provided the Giants with the chance to secure a victory this week. With Devin Singletary out due to a groin injury, which could be a multi-week issue, ensure that Tracy is not available in your league as the Giants prepare to face the Bengals next week. Although this game presents a more favorable passing matchup than a running one, the Bengals are currently ranked second in points allowed.
Navigating Week 5 Fantasy Football: High Scorers, Matchup Insights, and Player Performance Trends
Current Landscape of Fantasy Football
As we dive into Week 5 of the fantasy football season, teams are starting to shape their identities, and fantasy managers can benefit from analyzing trends in player performance as well as matchups. This week offers exciting opportunities for maximizing your lineup with players on hot streaks and favorable matchups.
High Scorers to Watch
Identifying high scorers is crucial for success in fantasy football. Here are some top players to consider for your lineup this week:
- Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City Chiefs) - Mahomes continues to be a top choice, consistently putting up big numbers. His ability to extend plays makes him a threat against any defense.
- Tyreek Hill (WR, Miami Dolphins) - Hill’s speed and playmaking ability have him amongst the league’s top receivers. Look for him to exploit mismatches in coverage.
- Austin Ekeler (RB, Los Angeles Chargers) – With his dual-threat capability, Ekeler is a reliable option for both rushing yards and receptions, making him a valuable asset in PPR formats.
Key Matchup Insights
Understanding matchups is essential for optimizing your lineup. Here are some critical matchups to keep an eye on in Week 5:
Quarterback Matchups
| Quarterback | Opponent | Matchup Strength |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | Washington Commanders | Favorable |
| Justin Fields (CHI) | Minnesota Vikings | Average |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | San Francisco 49ers | Challenging |
Running Back Matchups
With injuries and byes affecting rosters, certain running backs have favorable matchups this week:
| Running Back | Opponent | Matchup Strength |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | New Orleans Saints | Favorable |
| Travis Etienne (JAX) | Buffalo Bills | Average |
| Joe Mixon (CIN) | Arizona Cardinals | Favorable |
Player Performance Trends
Monitoring player performance trends can reveal who to start and who to bench. Here are some trends to consider:
Rising Stars
- Jordan Addison (WR, Minnesota Vikings) – Addison has emerged as a reliable target, especially as defenses focus on slowing down Justin Jefferson.
- Rasul Douglas (CB, Green Bay Packers) – His performance has been on the rise as he secures interceptions and deflects passes, impacting opposing quarterbacks.
Slumping Players
- Cam Akers (RB, Minnesota Vikings) – Akers has struggled to find his footing, making him a risky start against stronger defenses.
- Mike Evans (WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – After a hot start, Evans has seen a dip in targets, causing concern for fantasy managers.
Benefits of Analyzing Matchups
By analyzing matchups, fantasy managers can make informed decisions that maximize their scoring potential:
- Identifying Exploitable Defenses: Targeting players who will face weaker defenses can lead to higher point totals.
- Injury Updates: Keeping up with injury reports allows you to pivot to suitable substitutes.
- Player Form: Recognizing which players are trending upward can lead to a competitive edge.
Practical Tips for Week 5
Here are some practical tips to enhance your fantasy football strategy this week:
- Check Injury Reports: Always verify the health status of your players before the game to avoid last-minute surprises.
- Utilize Flex Positions Wisely: Consider players with high ceilings for your flex spot, especially from high-scoring matchups.
- Monitor Weather Conditions: Bad weather can affect the passing game; adjust your lineup accordingly.
Case Studies: Weekly Performance Analysis
Reviewing previous weeks can provide insights into player consistency and potential:
- Week 4 Performance: Players like A.J. Brown showcased their ability to dominate, hinting at further big weeks ahead.
- Matchup Disappointments: Players like David Montgomery underperformed significantly against tough run defenses, emphasizing the need to analyze opponents.
First-Hand Experience
Many fantasy managers share their experiences on forums, which can be invaluable. Engaging with communities like r/FantasyFootball allows for discussion on strategies and insights from seasoned players. Here, you can find advice on lineup decisions and injury updates, helping you navigate your roster more effectively.
Final Thoughts on Week 5
As you finalize your lineup for Week 5, consider all the information at your disposal—from high scorers to matchup insights. This week can be pivotal in your fantasy football journey, and making informed decisions will help you maximize your chances of success.
