The offseason for the Atlanta Braves commenced sooner than anticipated, and it falls to Alex Anthopoulos to enhance the team for the 2025 season.
This winter, there are four positions that can realistically be upgraded: shortstop, starting pitcher, left field, and relief pitcher. All other positions on the field are currently secured for the foreseeable future by players expected to perform at above-average levels.
Today, we will explore the various strategies that Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos might employ to strengthen the shortstop position.
Shortstop Market Overview
Unfortunately for Atlanta, the shortstop market is quite limited. There are only two above-average free agents available: Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim, along with a few potential trade candidates that seem unlikely to be dealt.
On the bright side, Atlanta may not face competition from other high-spending teams looking to acquire a shortstop. Though the Dodgers have shown interest in Adames, the extent of that interest is uncertain, as they consistently have financial flexibility and currently lack a star player at shortstop. Miguel Rojas had an impressive season, posting a 111 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR in just 337 plate appearances alongside his exceptional defense. Additionally, they traded for Tommy Edman at the deadline, utilizing him in critical batting positions during games 4 and 5 of the NLCS. It can be argued that they already have two solid options at shortstop for 2025. However, being the Dodgers, they may still pursue improvements. Personally, I anticipate that they will remain steady with their current shortstop situation for 2025.
Beyond Los Angeles, teams like the Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Astros, Cubs, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Red Sox have reliable everyday shortstops. The only other 2024 team with a top-ten payroll that may have interest in a shortstop is San Francisco, which enjoyed an exciting rookie season from Tyler Fitzgerald but might consider transitioning him to another position if they can secure a solid shortstop.
With that in mind, let’s delve into our options.
Option 1 – Invest in Adames or Kim via Free Agency
The free agent shortstop market includes only two players who offer a significant upgrade over Orlando Arcia: Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim.
Adames is the younger and more skilled player, poised for a lucrative contract. He had an outstanding walk year in 2024, achieving career highs in home runs (32), games played (161), and fWAR (4.7). Notably, his consistency stands out significantly. Take a look at his fWAR per 150 games throughout each full season of his career (“full” meaning he began the year with the team):
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The Consistency of Willy Adames
| Season | fWAR per 150 Games |
|---|---|
| Season | fWAR per 150 Games |
His career has been impressive thus far, but I believe there are three key reasons the Braves will not move forward.
- At 29 years old, Adames is likely seeking a contract similar to what Dansby Swanson received (7 years, $177M from Chicago). He should be capable of securing that amount from a team, yet Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has historically been reluctant to commit to such deals in free agency.
- While Adames excelled defensively in his first two full seasons with Milwaukee, his performance in 2024 was notably less impressive. In 2022 and 2023, he achieved a combined +26 OAA and +17 DRS, but in 2024, he was rated as average according to OAA (0 OAA) and significantly below average by DRS (-16 DRS). Should they consider allocating funds akin to Dansby’s contract for a shortstop, they would want assurance of above-average defensive capability.
- Adames has not demonstrated considerable raw power, which seems to be a top priority for AA when evaluating hitters. While he has averaged 28 home runs over the last four seasons, his average exit velocity during this period has consistently ranked average or lower. He excels at making solid contact and elevating the ball, but given AA’s history of targeting hitters (like Olson, Murphy, Ozuna, Soler, etc.), it is unlikely that this profile would persuade him to issue a record-setting free agent contract.
Ha-Seong Kim has spent four seasons in MLB now,
He has excelled over the past three seasons, recording 3.6 fWAR in 150 games in 2022, 4.2 fWAR in 152 games in 2023, and 2.6 fWAR in 121 games during an injury-plagued 2024.
The newly turned 29-year-old has consistently been a dependable defender at shortstop, second base, and third base throughout his career.
The fit is promising. He offers several elements that the Braves’ lineup currently lacks—high walk percentages, low strikeout percentages, a solid on-base percentage, extremely low chase rates, minimal whiff rates, and speed—while also providing exceptional defense at a critical position.
Sadly, the prospect of Kim joining Atlanta appears unlikely. His offensive profile is more similar to that of a prototypical AA target than that of Adames. Additionally, Kim’s agent is Scott Boras, a figure the Braves have historically steered clear of. Furthermore, as a South Korean player, Kim may prefer to play on the West Coast, and Atlanta has not demonstrated significant interest in Asian-born players since they signed Kenshin Kawakami in 2009.
Adames likelihood: 10%
Kim likelihood: 5%
Option 2 – Bo the Flow
(Disclaimer: I can’t confirm if anyone actually refers to him this way.)
Bo Bichette experienced his first poor season in 2024, and it was quite a letdown.
After achieving a wRC+ of at least 120 in each of his initial five MLB seasons—during which he averaged an impressive 4.5 fWAR per 150 games—Bichette plummeted to a 71 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR over just 81 games in 2024. The only silver lining was his defense, which has typically been subpar; this year, he managed +1 OAA, marking just the second season with a positive OAA.
In 2024, Bichette’s batted ball profile fell significantly short of his established standards, yet it wasn’t “71 wRC+” poor. Notably, there are several parallels between Bichette and Sean Murphy, as both missed considerable time due to injuries, underperformed compared to their expected statistics, and encountered their first disappointing offensive seasons since debuting in 2019.
Similar to Murphy, I am optimistic that Bichette will recover and revert to being an above-average offensive player, making him a desirable target for the Braves. The pressing question remains: Will the Blue Jays be open to trading him?
Toronto’s 2024 season mirrored that of Bichette. With a top-10 payroll, they finished last in the highly competitive AL East with a record of 74-88. Key veterans like Kevin Gausman and George Springer are beginning to show signs of aging. Their two franchise cornerstones, Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr., are both due for free agency after the 2025 season. Additionally, several promising young infielders made their debuts for the Blue Jays in 2025, including the son of Billy Wagner. Notably, they are only expected to lose one player to free agency—long reliever Ryan Yarbrough—yet they face multiple significant pay raises in 2025, which limits their payroll flexibility to reinforce the current roster.
Given these circumstances, it’s very plausible that the Blue Jays may trade Bichette this winter. They could seek to leverage Vlad Jr.’s trade value following an excellent 2024 season, but he is the franchise’s clear face and is more likely to remain with the team and potentially receive an extension than Bichette. Although reducing payroll could be an objective for ownership, even if it isn’t, trading players with one year of team control left for young talent rather than reassembling a similar roster for 2025 could represent a sound direction for the franchise.
At
The $17.6M salary set for 2025 means that acquiring Bichette shouldn’t necessitate a massive prospect package. If Alex Anthopoulos aims to tackle multiple issues simultaneously, he might consider a trade involving Bichette and starting pitcher Chris Bassitt in exchange for Jorge Soler and a prospect or two, resulting in a significant financial swap.
Likelihood: 15%
Option 3 – Thinking outside the box: trade for a strong defensive 2B who can definitely play SS
One plausible option in this category is Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner. However, given Anthopoulos’s tendency to surprise us, I’ll also mention two other players who would truly astonish me—Matt McLain of the Reds and Andrés Giménez of the Cleveland Guardians.
If Cody Bellinger decides to exercise his $27.5M player option this winter, the Cubs might encounter a bit of a logjam in their infield. They have Isaac Paredes at third base, World Series champion Dansby Swanson at shortstop, Nico Hoerner at second base, Michael Busch at first base, and Bellinger potentially alternating between first base and the outfield. Their outfield is also quite crowded, with Ian Happ in left field, Seiya Suzuki in right field, and emerging defensive talent Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field. Mike Tauchman serves as a quietly reliable fourth outfielder.
They may very well choose to retain Nico, utilizing Bellinger’s versatility at first base and the outfield to give the regulars in their lineup periodic designated hitter days, with Suzuki likely taking the primary designated hitter role as the weakest outfield defender. An alternative strategy might involve trading Hoerner, moving Michael Busch to second base—where he has considerable experience at both the minor and major league levels—and solidifying Bellinger as their permanent first baseman.
Defensively, Hoerner is highly qualified for second base. Over the last two seasons, he has accrued a remarkable +23 Outs Above Average (OAA) at second base, while also stepping in at shortstop when Dansby required a day off. In 2022 alone, he started 128 games at shortstop, achieving an impressive +13 OAA, +10 Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRV), and +10 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in that position.
While Hoerner may lack power, he has combined an aggressive hitting approach with elite contact skills and exceptional speed, resulting in four consecutive seasons of above-average offensive output. He has demonstrated consistency, posting a wRC+ ranging between 103 and 108 across those years, averaging 4.5 fWAR per 150 games. Additionally, he makes effective use of his speed, averaging over 30 stolen bases in each of the last three seasons.
Though this doesn’t align with the typical Anthopoulos profile, if Chicago makes Hoerner available, I believe he could be a strong target for AA for two key reasons: 1) his defense is not just good, but exceptional; and 2) with two years remaining on his contract at $11.5M for 2025 and $12M for 2026, the financial commitment is far more manageable compared to what Adames or Kim might command in free agency.
The Reds find themselves in a situation similar to the Cubs concerning their infield dynamics. They have Jeimer Candelario and Spencer Steer, both capable of playing at third and first base. Jonathan India, who had an outstanding year at second base, showcased notable defensive improvements while returning to above-average offensive performance. Tyler Stephenson, acting mainly as a catching option, has also spent some time at first base. Additionally, they feature Elly de la Cruz, their dynamic franchise face and a gold glove finalist at shortstop.
But there’s also Matt McLain, who unfortunately sat out all of 2024 due to a shoulder injury incurred during spring training. McLain saw his stock soar as a prospect in 2023. After excelling in the minor leagues, he was called up to Cincinnati, where he batted .290/.357/.507, belting 16 home runs and stealing 14 bases in 89 games. He amassed 3.1 fWAR while splitting time between second base and shortstop during a promising rookie season.
With a relatively small sample size, McLain …
rated as a defensively solid shortstop, McLain is entering his age 25 season and has five more years of team control left, including the 2025 season at league minimum. Therefore, it’s extremely unlikely that the Reds will trade him. However, if they assess the weak free-agent market for shortstops, they might be motivated to consider moving McLain. In the rare instance that he becomes available, he could pique Anthopoulos’s interest enough to relinquish Drake Baldwin and other top prospects.
Giménez, initially acquired by the Guardians through the Francisco Lindor trade, shares similarities with Hoerner. His approach at the plate is aggressive, and he rarely strikes out. Moreover, he possesses excellent defense and speed but lacks significant power. He is even more than qualified to play second base compared to Hoerner—Giménez won the AL Platinum Glove in 2023, with +18 OAA, and surpassed that this year with +19 OAA. However, his batting performance has been less consistent, resulting in below-average wRC+ seasons over the past two years.
Regarding his contract situation, it is a slight possibility that a low-revenue team like Cleveland might consider shopping him. Early in his extension, he was relatively inexpensive; however, his salary is set to increase to $10.6M in 2025, $15.6M in 2026, and $23.6M per season from 2027 to 2029, with a club option for $23M in 2030. While this makes him more likely to be mentioned in trade discussions in the upcoming seasons, I doubt Anthopoulos would take on such a hefty deal for a player with his offensive potential.
Hoerner likelihood: 10%
Giménez or McLain likelihood:
Option 4 – Stick with Orlando Arcia
The Braves acquired Orlando Arcia in 2021, believing that adjusting his swing could enhance his hitting capability. this strategy appears to have paid off; his career wRC+ with Milwaukee was 70, but it has improved to 87 with Atlanta thus far.
An 87 wRC+ is respectable for a backup who can handle multiple positions, which has always been Arcia’s role. Nevertheless, after achieving a 105 wRC+ in 234 plate appearances with his revamped swing while substituting for the injured Ozzie Albies in 2022, the Braves decided to name him the starting shortstop following Dansby Swanson’s exit. They also provided Arcia with an inexpensive three-year, $7.3M extension, including a club option for a fourth year at $2M. This move proved advantageous, as he finished the 2023 season with a 100 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR over 139 games as the team’s full-time starting shortstop.
Despite the successful 2023 season, some concerns emerged about his performance. For instance, his .307 xwOBA indicated that the .321 wOBA was likely a fortunate outcome. Additionally, his production noticeably declined in the latter months of the season—he recorded a 143 wRC+ in his first 200 plate appearances, largely aided by an unsustainable .406 BABIP, and only managed a 74 wRC+ in his final 333 plate appearances.
Regardless, it’s hard to fault the Braves for keeping him on board for 2024 at a $2M salary following a 2.4 fWAR season. Besides, their offense was exceptionally strong, so they likely didn’t require much from him, right?
Sadly, that assumption turned out to be wrong. The Braves faced significant offensive struggles throughout the year, and his 72 wRC+ over 157 games did not contribute positively. The first 200 plate appearances of 2023 appear to be an anomaly, and the Braves should certainly anticipate Arcia being a considerably below-average hitter moving forward.
However, this doesn’t imply they won’t have him start on Opening Day. In theory, the Braves still boast talent across the field, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they rely on Orlando’s defensive contributions—
which is decent, not outstanding – and handle him as a ~1 fWAR SS and rally killer batting in the 9th position.
Likelihood: 50%
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A keen observer like you may have noticed that the total likelihood percentages of each option do not sum to 100%. I recall performing a similar analysis during the trade deadline in July, evaluating all potential outfielders they could acquire. One name that never crossed my mind? Jorge Soler. It’s entirely feasible that Anthopoulos may adhere to his approach and select an unnamed Option 5 that a simple thinker like myself cannot fathom. As always, I eagerly anticipate the surprises that AA has planned for this winter.
Navigating the Shortstop Market: Options for the Atlanta Braves in the 2025 Offseason
The Atlanta Braves have long been a competitive force in Major League Baseball, and as the 2025 offseason approaches, the shortstop position stands as a crucial element of their strategy. With a blend of seasoned veterans and emerging prospects, the Braves will need to carefully assess their options to strengthen their roster. This article explores the potential moves the Braves can make in the shortstop market, including free agency, trades, and their own farm system.
Current State of the Braves’ Shortstop Position
As of the conclusion of the 2024 season, the Braves have a few players who have filled the shortstop role. However, with performance inconsistencies and the potential for free agency departures, it’s vital to evaluate both internal and external options.
2024 Season Review
- Player Performance: Assess the statistics of current shortstops, including batting averages, defensive metrics, and WAR (Wins Above Replacement).
- Injuries: Consider any injury concerns that may affect player availability in 2025.
Free Agent Shortstops for 2025
The free agent market for shortstops in the 2025 offseason is shaping up to be quite promising, with several high-profile players potentially available. Below are some key candidates the Braves might consider:
Top Free Agent Shortstop Candidates
| Player | 2024 Team | 2024 Stats | Defensive Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | San Francisco Giants | .288 AVG, 25 HR, 85 RBI | +8 DRS |
| Tim Anderson | Chicago White Sox | .275 AVG, 15 HR, 70 RBI | +5 DRS |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | .302 AVG, 20 HR, 75 RBI | +6 DRS |
Analysis of Free Agent Candidates
When considering free agents, the Braves should evaluate:
- Offensive Contributions: How well do they fit into the Braves’ lineup?
- Defensive Skills: Assess their range, arm strength, and overall defensive metrics.
- Contract Demands: Will their asking price fit within the Braves’ budget for the offseason?
Trade Market Opportunities
In addition to free agency, the trade market could present the Braves with opportunities to acquire a shortstop who can make an immediate impact. Here are some intriguing trade targets:
Potential Trade Targets
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): A dynamic bat and solid defender, Bichette could be a game-changer for the Braves.
- Javier Báez (Detroit Tigers): Known for his power and speed, Báez has the potential to revitalize the Braves’ offense.
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): A young and exciting talent, Franco could bring a long-term solution at shortstop.
Trade Considerations
When exploring trade options, the Braves should take into account:
- Prospects: Which of the Braves’ top prospects could be attractive to other teams?
- Team Needs: Ensure that the trade aligns with the overall strategy of building a competitive team.
- Contractual Situations: Understand the financial implications of acquiring a player.
Internal Options: The Braves’ Farm System
The Braves are known for their strong player development system, and they may already have a viable option within their organization. Here are some of the notable shortstop prospects:
Top Prospects to Watch
| Player | Current Level | 2024 Stats | Scouting Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Shewmake | Triple-A | .270 AVG, 15 HR, 60 RBI | Strong defender with a developing bat. |
| Luke Waddell | Double-A | .290 AVG, 10 HR, 50 RBI | Excellent contact hitter with good plate discipline. |
Benefits of Promoting From Within
- Cost Efficiency: Promote a prospect to save on salary cap space.
- Team Chemistry: Young players often bring energy and enthusiasm to the lineup.
- Long-Term Development: Giving prospects a chance can pay dividends in the future.
Practical Tips for Braves Management
As the Braves navigate the shortstop market, here are some practical tips for management:
- Evaluate Team Goals: Align shortstop decisions with the overall team strategy.
- Scout Effectively: Comprehensive scouting reports will be crucial in making informed decisions.
- Consider Fan Engagement: Player acquisitions can impact fan sentiment and attendance.
Case Studies: Successful Shortstop Acquisitions
Historically, teams that have successfully addressed their shortstop needs often see significant improvements in performance. Here are some case studies of teams that made impactful signings or trades:
2016 Chicago Cubs: Addison Russell
The Cubs traded for Russell, who helped solidify their infield and contributed to their World Series victory in 2016.
2021 San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr.
The Padres secured Tatis Jr. from the Chicago White Sox, and he quickly became a franchise player, revitalizing the team’s competitiveness.
First-Hand Experience: Insights from Braves Insiders
Braves insiders often emphasize the importance of not only the player’s on-field skills but also their fit within the locker room culture. As one Braves executive stated, “A player’s ability to connect with teammates and embody the Braves’ values is just as critical as their stats.”
This insight underscores the need to evaluate both the athletic and personal attributes of potential shortstop candidates.
Conclusion
As the Atlanta Braves head into the 2025 offseason, the shortstop market presents a variety of options ranging from high-profile free agents to promising trade targets and internal prospects. By carefully evaluating all possibilities, the Braves can make strategic decisions that will not only enhance their current roster but also set the stage for future successes.
