In last year’s National League Division Series, the Dodgers, who achieved 100 wins, faced elimination against the 84-win D-backs, not simply due to the rust accumulated during their bye week. The primary reason was Arizona’s strong performance, effectively neutralizing the Dodgers’ top hitters. One must acknowledge the accomplishments of a team that reached the World Series.
Indeed, the outcome was drastic. The trio of starting pitchers combined to permit 13 runs over just 4 and 2/3 innings. Mookie Betts’ first turn at bat in the series occurred when his team was already trailing 6-0. Ultimately, the impressive season record was inconsequential; what truly mattered was their lack of a robust rotation at that moment, which ultimately derailed their entire season.
As the 2024 postseason approaches, one hopes that the Dodgers will avoid facing similar challenges. Are there residues of the issues that abruptly concluded their 2023 season? Regrettably, yes. It is unfortunate to note that as the 2024 Dodgers enter the playoffs with a significantly altered pitching lineup, many of the same concerns remain.
So, how will the Dodgers formulate their pitching strategy? Will they rely on magic, glue, and duct tape? Most likely. However, let’s explore options to better assist them in devising a plan.
At this juncture, there are three certainties we can identify.
Manager Dave Roberts has essentially indicated who his top three starters will be, though each selection comes with its own caveat. Yamamoto, who missed several months due to a shoulder injury, has been effective since his return (3.38 ERA in 16 innings), yet he has yet to make a Major League start with fewer than five days’ rest. It’s difficult to anticipate that changing at this point. Flaherty was impressive in his initial seven starts for the Dodgers (2.61 ERA) but faced significant struggles in his last three outings (6.43 ERA).
Lastly, Buehler, who was once considered the ace of the staff, has had a challenging season in terms of health and consistency, reflected in his 5.38 ERA. His presence on the roster feels more like a necessity rather than a reflection of performance. While his last start against the playoff-bound Padres on September 26 saw him allow just one run in five innings, the concerning aspect was that he recorded only one strikeout, and notably, this strikeout came on a pitch that Fernando Tatis Jr. clearly disputed due to its placement outside the strike zone.</“`html
Kershaw is out for the season due to a toe injury and is hoping to return later in October. Tony Gonsolin may also be able to join him, but neither pitcher is ready to play at this moment.
3) It’s not so much about “starters” as it is about “pitchers.”
This is truly the crux of the matter.
The Tigers have spent the past two months relying heavily on one exceptional starter, Tarik Skubal, along with various combinations of relievers and openers to propel them into the playoffs. (“Our strategy is to go with Skubal tomorrow and embrace pitching chaos thereafter,” manager A.J. Hinch stated prior to the Wild Card Series.)
Despite one’s desires to see the game played like it was during the Dodgers’ championship in 1965—with three starters (Sandy Koufax, Claude Osteen, and Don Drysdale) accounting for 80% of the team’s innings—this approach simply doesn’t hold anymore. Last October, starters only pitched for 52% of plate appearances.
As we devise a pitching strategy, it’s important to focus less on starts and more on innings. To reach the World Series, how many innings must the Dodgers cover?
This naturally varies depending on the number of games they may need to win in each series, if they progress at all. By examining the initial two postseasons under the current format, we can better understand the required innings to navigate through.
NL Division Series
Innings needed: ~35
Though nothing has been officially announced, Flaherty is expected to start Game 1 on Saturday, followed by Yamamoto in Game 2 and
If the Dodgers manage to secure 20 innings from their four starter/bulk pitchers along with an additional 10 innings from their top three relievers for matches 3 and 5, it doesn’t seem overly challenging.
Providing the series extends to the full five games, there will be a break of one day before …
NL Championship Series
Innings required: ~55
Clearly, the challenge lies in not knowing whether Flaherty will be required in an NLDS Game 5 victory, or if he has had a complete week of rest since NLDS Game 1. Regardless, you can tentatively include Yamamoto as follows:
Flaherty would likely be available for two additional starts, depending on whether he pitches in an NLDS Game 5 or not. If he does, his starts would likely be in Games 3 and 7; if not, then Games 2 and 6. Buehler could take the mound for Game 2 (if Flaherty is unavailable) or Game 3 (if Flaherty is available). Knack, or Knack in combination with an opener, would be assigned to one of the middle games—either 3, 4, or 5.
This scenario, however, could present an issue. Yamamoto will not pitch on fewer than five days’ rest, and Flaherty certainly won’t be asked to pitch on three days’ rest. Unless there’s a sweep, the Dodgers face a scenario of playing five games in six days. Flaherty can only start two of those games if he does not have to pitch in an NLDS Game 5. Should he need to pitch: the Dodgers will have to find another starter, potentially Kershaw by that time, or perhaps organize a bullpen game—this would be the second such instance if you consider Knack’s starts as well.
It may sound exaggerated, but this situation could indicate that for the Dodgers, clinching the NLDS in three or four games is crucial for their overall success in October.
We can’t say with certainty the exact day the World Series will commence. This uncertainty arises from a new development in the postseason schedule: if both the NLCS and ALCS wrap up by October 19, the planned October 25 start date for the Fall Classic will be moved up by three days to October 22.
As a result of this, along with the potential for a shorter NLCS and a longer ALCS—allowing the Dodgers to completely reset their rotation—we cannot speculate on what the daily landscape of the World Series will resemble. Nevertheless, three key takeaways emerge from this analysis:
In total, this represents approximately 140 innings, give or take a game or two, aligning reasonably well with what we observed from the four World Series teams over the past two seasons—the 2023 Rangers and D-backs, as well as the 2022 Phillies, threw between 150 and 155 innings across 17 games. The 2022 Astros, however, managed only 126 innings through just 13 games. There are multiple strategies to achieve these totals; for instance, the 2019 Nationals saw 65% of their plate appearances come from starting pitchers (excluding those starters who pitched in relief), while the 2021 Braves recorded only 47%.
This scenario is certainly not what the Dodgers envisioned, having hoped that Glasnow or Kershaw, or potentially both, would be present, contributing valuable innings, or that Stone would emerge as a standout pitcher. On the pitching front, things rarely unfold as planned. Nonetheless, this is the situation they face—supplemented by Ohtani leading the lineup, of course—and it is manageable. While it may not be straightforward and perhaps not highly likely, it remains within the realm of possibility.
Navigating the Pitching Puzzle: How the Dodgers Can Overcome Rotation Challenges in the 2024 Postseason
Understanding the Dodgers’ Pitching Landscape
The Los Angeles Dodgers have long been a powerhouse in Major League Baseball, with their pitching rotation being a critical component of their success. As they head into the 2024 postseason, the team faces several challenges that could impact their performance on the mound. By examining the current depth chart and evaluating strengths and weaknesses, we can identify strategies that the Dodgers can employ to enhance their pitching effectiveness during the playoffs.
Key Pitchers in the Dodgers’ Rotation
The Dodgers have a mix of seasoned veterans and promising newcomers in their pitching arsenal. Here’s a look at some of the key figures in their rotation:
| Player | Throws | Height | Weight | Date of Birth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | L/L | 6’4″ | 225 lbs | 03/19/1988 |
| Landon Knack | L/R | 6’2″ | 220 lbs | 07/15/1997 |
| Julio Urías | L/L | 6’0″ | 225 lbs | 08/12/1996 |
| Walker Buehler | R/R | 6’2″ | 185 lbs | 07/28/1994 |
Utilizing the strengths of each pitcher will be crucial as they navigate through the postseason.
Identifying Rotation Challenges
Every postseason brings its unique set of challenges, and the Dodgers must be prepared to face several potential obstacles:
- **Injury Concerns**: With a history of injuries, players like Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler may require careful management to ensure they are at peak performance without over-exerting themselves.
– **Inconsistent Performance**: The postseason can amplify pressure, leading to inconsistent outings from pitchers. Addressing mental conditioning and confidence levels will be key.
– **Matchups Against Opponents**: The Dodgers may face teams with potent lineups that could exploit weaknesses in their pitchers. Analyzing opponent tendencies can help develop tailored game plans.
Strategic Adjustments for Success
To maximize their chances of success in the playoffs, the Dodgers can implement several strategic adjustments:
1. Utilize Bullpen Depth
With a solid bullpen, the Dodgers should not hesitate to leverage their relievers in high-leverage situations. Consider these strategies:
– **Shortening Games**: If starters are struggling, bringing in reliable relievers early can help stifle opposing bats.
– **Matchup-Based Decisions**: Utilize left-handed or right-handed relievers against specific hitters to create favorable matchups.
2. Rely on Advanced Analytics
The Dodgers have embraced analytics to enhance their gameplay. By integrating data-driven decisions, they can:
– **Adjust Pitch Mix**: Analyze opposing hitters’ weaknesses to adjust pitchers’ pitch selections.
– **Pre-Game Preparation**: Utilize data to develop specific game plans for each opponent, enhancing the chances of pitching success.
3. Mental Conditioning and Resilience Training
Postseason pressure can impact performance. Instituting mental conditioning programs can help pitchers maintain composure and focus. Consider the following:
– **Visualization Techniques**: Encourage pitchers to visualize successful outcomes in high-pressure situations.
– **Relaxation Strategies**: Incorporate breathing exercises or mindfulness practices to help pitchers manage anxiety.
Case Studies and Insights
Looking at previous postseason performances, the Dodgers can learn from both their successes and failures.
– **2017 World Series**: The Dodgers faced challenges with their bullpen against the Houston Astros. By failing to adapt their pitching strategy, they lost games that could have been won with earlier bullpen interventions.
– **2020 Championship Run**: In this run, the Dodgers effectively utilized their starters in combination with a strong bullpen, showcasing the importance of depth and strategic decision-making.
These examples emphasize the need for adaptability and a cohesive strategy throughout the postseason.
Practical Tips for Managing the Rotation
Here are some practical tips for the Dodgers to enhance their pitching strategy this postseason:
– **Rotate Starters**: Avoid overusing any single pitcher in consecutive games to manage fatigue.
– **Simulated Game Situations**: Practice under high-pressure conditions to prepare pitchers for actual game scenarios.
– **Communicate**: Maintain open lines of communication between coaches and players to address issues promptly.
First-Hand Experiences from Players
Many Dodgers players have expressed the importance of mental preparation and adaptability in the postseason. For instance, Clayton Kershaw has mentioned how focusing on one pitch at a time has helped him succeed despite the pressure of postseason play. Similarly, younger players like Landon Knack have credited mentorship from veterans, emphasizing the value of learning and adapting quickly to the playoff atmosphere.
Conclusion
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the potential to navigate the complexities of their pitching rotation in the 2024 postseason. By leveraging their strengths, making strategic adjustments, and learning from past experiences, they can position themselves for success. The combination of skilled pitchers, innovative strategies, and mental fortitude will be key to overcoming rotation challenges and achieving postseason glory.
