Not all balanced baseball schedules are the same, and during playoff races that come down to the final games, the remaining schedule becomes crucial.
At this point in the season, teams that are out of contention can significantly influence the playoff landscape. The San Francisco Giants have the potential to determine whether the San Diego Padres or Arizona Diamondbacks secure a wild-card series, or if the Baltimore Orioles can catch up with the New York Yankees. The Tampa Bay Rays are set to face two teams with slim playoff hopes—the Boston Red Sox and the Detroit Tigers. The Miami Marlins also matter as they compete against the Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins, both of whom are borderline playoff candidates.
The Athletic analyzed the remaining schedules for each contender, along with playoff probabilities and remaining strength of schedule metrics from FanGraphs. All teams with at least a 5 percent chance of playoff qualification were included in this examination.
Which teams will accelerate towards the finish line, and which ones are likely to play the role of spoilers as the season draws to a close? Let’s delve deeper.
Teams are ordered according to winning percentage. Winning percentages, playoff odds, and strength of schedule statistics have been updated through Wednesday.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
New York Yankees
Record: 85-62
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .509
|
Opponent |
Games |
Location |
Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
Key series: Sept. 24-26“`html
|
Opponent |
Games |
Location |
Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
Key series: Sept. 16-19 vs. Twins
If the Astros secure the AL West title in the upcoming two weeks, their four-game series against the Twins may represent the Guardians’ final encounter with a team that still has playoff aspirations. This season, the Guardians boast a 7-2 record against the Twins and have established a solid lead in the AL Central, providing them with a bit of leeway (it’s worth mentioning that the Twins will play nearly all of their remaining games at home).
Baltimore Orioles
Record: 83-64
Playoff odds: 99.6 percent
Strength of schedule: .518
|
Opponent |
Games |
Location |
|---|
|
Opponent |
Games |
Location |
Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
Key series: Sept. 20-22 vs. Giants
The Royals possess sufficient leeway in the wild-card race, allowing them to potentially drop the forthcoming series against the Tigers, provided they manage the relatively easy matchups surrounding it. (They will be without Paul Skenes in the series against the Pirates.) This season, the Royals have excelled at home, while the Giants have struggled considerably on the road, presenting a significant opportunity in this three-game matchup.
Minnesota Twins
Record: 78-68
Playoff odds: 87.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .490
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4
Road
.575
3
Road
.507
3
Home
.370
3
Home
.565
Key series: Sept. 20-22 at Red Sox
The Twins have a slim chance of winning the division, with just a 2.7 percent likelihood. Their attention should be focused on holding onto the final wild-card spot as they are under threat from the Tigers, Red Sox, and Mariners. Therefore, this upcoming series against Boston is critical. A poor performance in that series could complicate their prospects, although they do have a chance to recover against the Marlins, an opponent they are expected to handle, before finishing the season against the playoff-bound Orioles.
Houston Astros
Record: 78-68
Playoff odds: 93.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .478
Key series: Sept. 19-22 vs. Angels
With a comfortable lead in their division, the Astros aren’t overly concerned about the Mariners closing in on them. They have seven games left against the last-place Angels — including four at home — that could help them clinch the AL West before facing the Mariners in the final week of the season. Although they have split their first eight encounters with the Angels, they have the opportunity to strengthen their position significantly.
Detroit Tigers
Record: 75-72
Playoff odds: 11.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .486
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Opponent |
Games |
Location |
Win% |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Opponent |
Games |
Location |
Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
Key series: Sept. 23-25 at Astros
The Mariners must leapfrog and fend off three other teams vying for the wild card, which makes their chances of winning the division (6.9 percent) significantly higher than securing a wild-card spot (1.3 percent). Although it’s a daunting challenge, they have performed well against the Rangers this season, boasting a 5-1 record, and the upcoming series against Houston presents a great opportunity to gain ground. If they manage a sweep, the Mariners will finish their season against the Athletics, while the Astros will close against the Guardians.
Boston Red Sox
Record: 74-73
Playoff odds: 6.6 percent
Strength of schedule: .517
Key series: Sept. 20-22 vs. Twins
In the final two and a half weeks, the Red Sox face considerable travel, yet manager Alex Cora emphasizes the importance of the series against the Twins, who currently hold the wild-card position the Red Sox are aiming to secure. Should the wild-card race remain tight a week from now, this series could prove pivotal. Earlier in May, the Twins bested the Red Sox in a series played in Minnesota.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 88-58
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .493
|
Opponent |
Games |
Location |
Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
Key series: Sept. 16-18 at Brewers
In addition to successfully managing games against the Mets to preserve their solid lead in the division, the upcoming series against the Brewers is crucial for the Phillies. This series will significantly impact their chances of securing a bye. The top two division winners advance to the NLDS; at present, these positions are held by the Phillies and Dodgers. Currently, the Phillies hold a four-game lead over their nearest competitor, the Brewers, who experienced a sweep at the hands of the Phillies in June with scores of 3-1, 2-1 (<a href="https://www.m“`html
|
Opponent |
Games |
Location |
Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
Key series: Sept. 24-26 vs. Padres
The remaining schedule for the Dodgers is relatively favorable, featuring nine games against the two weakest teams in the NL. However, the Padres have dominated their encounters with the Dodgers this season, securing victories in seven of their ten contests thus far. Furthermore, the Padres continue to apply pressure in the latter half of the season. Even if they don’t realistically contend for the NL West title, they still aim to clinch a wild-card position and may derail the Dodgers’ chances of earning a bye.
Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 84-62
Playoff odds: 99.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .525
Key series: Sept. 16-18 vs. Phillies
The Brewers face the toughest remaining schedule among NL contenders, with the next three series holding vital importance. Playing seven games against the Diamondbacks, who have been the most formidable MLB team since July 1, presents a significant challenge. Nevertheless, the Brewers don’t have much at stake outside of securing a wild-card bye, especially considering that the Cubs are only at a 0.3 percent chance of overtaking them. Thus, the three home games against the bye-holding Phillies represent a crucial opportunity. As of Thursday, the Brewers had a run differential of plus-124, tying them with the Yankees and Phillies for the best in MLB. However, they previously suffered a minus-5 deficit during the Phillies’ sweep in June.
<h3“`html
3
Home
.572
3
Road
.370
3
Road
.572
3
Home
.493
3
Home
.558
Key series: Sept. 27-29 vs. Padres
Provided that neither the Padres nor the Diamondbacks surpass the Dodgers, this series at Chase Field could determine who will host a wild-card matchup between these two teams. Playing the final series of the regular season with home-field advantage at stake, and then facing the same team in the first round of the playoffs, opens up a plethora of strategic possibilities. The D-Backs, who were on fire last season, swept the Brewers in a wild-card series on the road. This time, they aim to host the festivities.
San Diego Padres
Record: 82-65
Playoff odds: 93 percent
Strength of schedule: .518
Key series: Sept. 27-29 at Diamondbacks
The situation for the Padres mirrors that of the D-Backs: securing home field in the wild-card round is within reach. However, they face a tougher challenge than Arizona, as they have the Astros and Dodgers flanking a series against the White Sox. It’s a rollercoaster ride! (Additionally, there is a possibility that the Mets and/or Braves could be positioned to clinch a top-two wild-card spot during the final series of the regular season.) The Padres and D-Backs have evenly split their ten encounters this season; it’s time to settle this.
New York Mets
Record: 80-66
Playoff odds: 56.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .520
Key series: Sept. 24-26 at Braves
The Mets are facing the second-toughest remaining schedule of all NL contenders. It’s going to be a challenging stretch. They will face the team with the best record in MLB (Phillies) seven times, concluding the season on the road against another divisional leader (Brewers). In between, they have what could be the most crucial series of the season: three games in Atlanta that could determine their fate. For this series to carry maximum significance, the Mets must perform well against the Phillies and keep the Cubs at bay.
Atlanta Braves
Record: 79-67
Playoff odds: 55.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .“`html
3
Road
.483
3
Road
.370
3
Home
.548
3
Home
.544
Series to Watch: Sept. 24-26 vs. Mets
The second-to-last series of the regular season could prove to be even more interesting than the final one. With matchups like Mets-Braves, Orioles-Yankees, Padres-Dodgers, and Mariners-Astros, expect some thrilling moments! The Braves and Mets are currently engaged in the tightest playoff race in the league, continually positioning themselves with the understanding that the team that falters may well miss the playoffs altogether. Assuming the Braves’ rotation remains on its regular schedule, Chris Sale, Max Fried, and Charlie Morton are set to pitch during the series against the Mets.
(Top photo of Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo: Vaughn Ridley / Getty Images)
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Navigating the Final Stretch: Key Series and Playoff Implications as MLB Races Heat Up
The Importance of September Series
As the MLB season enters its final month, teams are feeling the pressure. Every game counts, and the stakes are higher than ever. September is notorious for its critical matchups that can make or break a team’s playoff aspirations. Let’s dive into the key series to watch and their implications for the postseason.
Key Series to Watch
- Yankees vs. Red Sox: This historic rivalry always draws attention. With both teams vying for a Wild Card spot, their matchups in late September could be pivotal.
- Dodgers vs. Padres: In the National League West, the battle between these two teams could determine not only playoff positioning but also home-field advantage.
- Astros vs. Angels: As the Astros aim to defend their title, their series against the Angels will be crucial for maintaining their lead in the AL West.
Key Playoff Implications
The outcomes of these series can significantly impact playoff scenarios. Here are a few implications to consider:
- Wild Card Race: Several teams are in contention for the Wild Card spots, making every game essential.
- Division Titles: Winning the division can be the difference between a playoff berth and an early exit.
- Home Field Advantage: Teams fighting for better seeds will do everything they can to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Understanding the Playoff Picture
At this juncture, it’s essential to understand how the playoff format works. Here’s a quick breakdown:
| League | Division Winners | Wild Card Teams | Total Teams |
|---|---|---|---|
| American League | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| National League | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Current Standings Snapshot
| Team | Wins | Losses | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 90 | 50 | .643 |
| Houston Astros | 88 | 53 | .624 |
| New York Yankees | 80 | 60 | .571 |
Benefits of Keeping Track of the Final Stretch
Understanding the dynamics of the final month of the MLB season can significantly enhance your viewing experience. Here are some benefits of keeping track:
- Enhanced Engagement: Knowing the stakes can make watching games more thrilling.
- Better Predictions: Analyzing team performance can help you predict outcomes and enjoy sports betting.
- Informed Discussions: Engaging in conversations with friends or on social media can be more rewarding when you have up-to-date information.
Practical Tips for Fans
As fans, you can take several steps to stay informed and engaged during this crucial time:
- Follow Daily Updates: Websites like MLB.com provide real-time updates on games and standings.
- Watch Key Matchups: Prioritize watching games that have playoff implications.
- Join Fantasy Leagues: Engage in fantasy baseball to make every game feel significant.
Case Studies: Teams to Watch
Some teams are positioned uniquely as we approach the playoffs. Here are two case studies worth noting:
1. The Rising Stars: Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles have had a remarkable season marked by young talent and impressive performance. Their ability to clinch a Wild Card spot could disrupt traditional powerhouses in the postseason.
2. The Veterans: Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves, armed with a mix of veteran presence and young stars, are looking to capitalize on their experience in the playoffs. Their performance in September might be crucial for their momentum going into October.
First-Hand Experience: Fans’ Perspective
Many fans share their excitement as the season reaches its climax. Here’s what some have to say:
“Every game feels like a playoff game. The adrenaline is unmatched!” – Sarah, Yankees Fan
“Watching our team fight for a Wild Card spot has been a rollercoaster. We’re all on edge!” – Daniel, Orioles Fan
The Road Ahead: What to Expect
As we look forward to the MLB postseason, expect thrilling storylines and dramatic finishes. Teams are not just competing for titles; they are also vying for respect and legacy.
With the final stretch upon us, every game will be vital. Stay tuned, keep track of standings, and enjoy the intensity of the playoffs as they unfold.
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