Veteran guard Damian Lillard was among the top Fantasy basketball selections at his position last season; however, he faced challenges during his inaugural year with Milwaukee. Lillard’s scoring average plummeted from 32.2 points per game in 2022-23 to a mere 24.3 in 2023-24, prompting owners to rethink how to value him in the upcoming 2024-25 Fantasy basketball drafts. Sharing the court with one of the NBA’s elite players, Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averaged over 30 points and 11 rebounds last season, Lillard’s situation is further complicated. Many Fantasy owners are likely to design their 2024 lineups around Antetokounmpo, who is often among the first players selected in drafts.
Identifying Fantasy basketball sleepers for 2024-25 and breakout candidates for 2024 is vital to creating a well-balanced lineup that has the potential to contend for a title. Celtics veteran Derrick White emerged as a top-30 Fantasy player in his eighth season in the NBA, but there’s a possibility this might lead to him being perceived as overvalued and a potential bust for the 2024-25 Fantasy season. Before making any selections for 2024-25 Fantasy basketball, it’s essential to consult the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings and cheat sheets from SportsLine’s established computer model.
The proven model at SportsLine simulates each NBA season 10,000 times. This model is developed by the same experts responsible for projections on all three major Fantasy platforms. Updated multiple times daily, the cheat sheets and rankings adjust whenever injuries occur or roster changes take place.
Last season, the model identified Thunder G/F Josh Giddey as a bust, predicting he would not fulfill his sixth-round average draft position (ADP). Consequently, Giddey experienced a substantial reduction in minutes as Oklahoma City’s roster improved, leading to declines in points (16.6 to 12.3), rebounds (7.9 to 6.4), assists (6.2 to 4.8), and steals (0.8 to 0.6). The Thunder eventually traded him to the Bulls for Alex Caruso this offseason, which benefited Fantasy basketball managers who avoided the pitfalls associated with him last season.
Additionally, the model accurately predicted DeMar DeRozan as a sleeper for the 2021-22 season, resulting in his career-high average of 27.9 points per game. It also heralded the breakout seasons of Paolo Banchero and Victor Wembanyama, both of whom claimed NBA Rookie of the Year honors in the past two seasons. Those who adhered to the model’s Fantasy basketball guidance for these players were well-positioned for a significant postseason run.
Now, the SportsLine model has simulated the entire NBA season 10,000 times and has released updated Fantasy basketball rankings for 2024-25, complete with numerous sleepers, breakouts, and potential busts. Visit SportsLine now to explore these 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings.
Top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers
One of the notable sleepers for Fantasy basketball in 2024, as predicted by the model, is Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant. While you might not typically consider a two-time All-Star like Morant as a sleeper, his recent pair of suspensions, coupled with an injury over the past two years, have caused him to somewhat fade from attention. Since early March 2023, Morant has participated in just 17 out of a possible 102 regular-season games for Memphis.
During his nine games last year, he remained exceptional, posting averages of 25.1 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.6 rebounds. Although this constitutes a limited sample size,
Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, and LeBron James were the only players to average at least 25-8-5 during the 2023-24 NBA season. Morant has fully recuperated from shoulder surgery and feels well-rested. He has expressed that he is in a favorable mental space, which could present a formidable challenge for the rest of the league as he embarks on a revenge tour. In the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings, Morant is positioned as a top-three Fantasy point guard, even surpassing Steph Curry. Discover more Fantasy basketball sleepers for 2024 here.
Top 2024 Fantasy Basketball Breakouts
One breakout player for 2024 identified by the model is Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher. The No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft possesses an exceptional 3-and-D skill set, having shot nearly 40% from beyond the arc while playing professionally in France last season. He finds himself in a situation where he is likely to receive immediate playing time alongside Trae Young, one of the league’s premier playmakers, who will help divert some attention from the rookie.
Risacher has the opportunity to leverage his strengths as an off-ball shooter and slasher, a role he fulfilled while with JL Bourg last year. There is a strong possibility he could be a starter right from the outset of the season, particularly given his notable defensive capabilities. SportsLine’s model has highlighted Risacher as one of its top breakout options, placing him ahead of other forwards such as PJ Washington, Jonathan Kuminga, and Keegan Murray. Uncover additional Fantasy basketball breakouts for 2024 here.
Top 2024 Fantasy Basketball Busts
When it comes to players to steer clear of, the model highlights Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen as one of the leading busts for 2024 Fantasy basketball. Following a breakout 2022-23 season, where Markkanen made his first All-Star appearance and was named Most Improved Player, he faced a downturn during the 2023-24 season. His FG%, PPG, and RPG all saw declines, and he contended with three separate injuries that sidelined him for one-third of the season. His name also surfaced in trade rumors during the offseason before he signed a five-year extension with Utah.
Nonetheless, this does not rule out the possibility of him being traded, as Utah has invested in fellow forwards with back-to-back top-10 draft picks. The team also retains John Collins and Walker Kessler in the frontcourt, meaning if Markkanen’s performance continues to falter, the Jazz have alternatives at their disposal. Despite his average 2024 Fantasy basketball ADP placing him as the second SF drafted, the model does not favor Markkanen as highly, positioning him outside the top eight players at the position. Avoid these 2024 Fantasy basketball busts as well.
How to Find Proven 2024-25 Fantasy Basketball Rankings
SportsLine also has a surprising prediction regarding one of the league’s top players, recommending to avoid him in 2024 Fantasy basketball drafts based on his current ADP. This player is projected to fall short of his first-round ADP, placing behind players typically available in the third round or later, such as Damian Lillard and James Harden. You can discover who this player is, as well as the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings for every player, at SportsLine.
So which 2024-25 Fantasy basketball sleepers, breakouts …
Which players should you target and which should you avoid? To uncover which top names to steer clear from, and to identify players to focus on, visit SportsLine now for 2024-25 Fantasy basketball cheat sheets for every position, all created by the model that has successfully predicted Fantasy basketball picks.
Consensus Top 100 Fantasy Basketball ADP 2024-25
- Nikola Jokic (DEN – C)
- Victor Wembanyama (SAS - C,PF)
- Luka Doncic (DAL – PG,SG)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL – PF,C)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC – PG,SG)
- Jayson Tatum (BOS – SF,PF)
- Tyrese Haliburton (IND – PG,SG)
- Joel Embiid (PHI – C)
- Anthony Edwards (MIN – SG,SF)
- Anthony Davis (LAL - PF,C)
- Stephen Curry (GSW – PG,SG)
- Domantas Sabonis (SAC – PF,C)
- Trae Young (ATL – PG)
- Devin Booker (PHO – PG,SF,SG)
- LeBron James (LAL – PF,SF)
- Kevin Durant (PHO – SF,PF)
- Donovan Mitchell (CLE – PG,SG)
- Jalen Brunson (NYK – PG,SG)
- Scottie Barnes (TOR – PF,SF,SG)
- Chet Holmgren (OKC – C,PF)
- Kyrie Irving (DAL – PG,SG)
- De’Aaron Fox (SAC – PG)
- Alperen Sengun (HOU – C)
- Damian Lillard (MIL – PG)
- Ja Morant (MEM – PG)
- Dejounte Murray (NOR – PG,SG)
- Tyrese Maxey (PHI – PG,SG)
- Paolo Banchero (ORL – PF,SF)
- LaMelo Ball (CHA – PG,SG)
- Bam Adebayo (MIA – C)
- James Harden (LAC – PG,SG)
- Kawhi Leonard (LAC – PF,SF,SG)
- Paul George (PHI – SF,PF,SG)
- Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN – C,PF)
- Lauri Markkanen (UTH – PF,SF)
- Jaylen Brown (BOS – SG,SF)
- Desmond Bane (MEM – SF,SG)
- Evan Mobley (CLE – C,PF)
- Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM – PF,C)
- Cade Cunningham (DET – PG,SG)
- DeMar DeRozan (SAC – PF,SF,SG)
- Pascal Siakam (IND – C,PF,SF)
- Jalen Williams (OKC – PF,SF,SG)
- Nikola Vucevic (CHI - C,PF)
- Jamal Murray (DEN – PG,SG)
- Zion Williamson (NOR – C,PF)
- Franz Wagner (ORL - PF,SF,SG)
- Mikal Bridges (NYK – PF,SF,SG)
- Jimmy Butler (MIA – PF,SF)
- Rudy Gobert (MIN – C)
- Derrick White (BOS – PG,SG)
- Brandon Ingram (NOR – PF,SF,SG)
- Myles Turner (IND – C)
Navigating the 2024-25 Fantasy Basketball Landscape: Key Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts to Target and Fade
Understanding the Fantasy Basketball Landscape
As the 2024-25 NBA season approaches, fantasy basketball enthusiasts are gearing up for another thrilling year. The key to success lies in identifying sleepers, breakouts, and busts throughout your draft strategy. This article will help you navigate the fantasy basketball landscape by providing insights into players to target and fade based on their potential performance this season.
Key Sleepers for the 2024-25 Season
Sleepers are players who are undervalued and often overlooked during drafts. Selecting a sleeper can provide a significant boost to your team without requiring a high draft pick. Here are some exciting sleepers for this season:
- Jaden Ivey (SG, Detroit Pistons)
- Potential Role: Increased usage with Cade Cunningham’s injury concerns.
- 2023 Averages: 16.0 PPG, 5.2 APG, 4.0 RPG.
- Jalen Green (SG, Houston Rockets)
- Potential Role: Expected to take another step forward in his third year.
- 2023 Averages: 22.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.5 APG.
- Keegan Murray (SF, Sacramento Kings)
- Potential Role: Key contributor in a high-paced offense.
- 2023 Averages: 12.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.5 APG.
Breakout Candidates for 2024-25
Breakout players are those who have the potential to exceed expectations and significantly impact fantasy teams. Here are some players poised for breakout seasons:
- Anthony Edwards (SG, Minnesota Timberwolves)
- Reason for Breakout: Increased role as the team’s primary scoring option.
- 2023 Averages: 24.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.4 APG.
- Tyrese Haliburton (PG, Indiana Pacers)
- Reason for Breakout: A dynamic playmaker poised to lead the Pacers.
- 2023 Averages: 20.0 PPG, 10.4 APG, 4.0 RPG.
- Desmond Bane (SG, Memphis Grizzlies)
- Reason for Breakout: Increased offensive responsibility without Ja Morant for the first chunk of the season.
- 2023 Averages: 18.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.7 APG.
Top Busts to Avoid
Identifying busts can be just as crucial as finding sleepers and breakouts. Busts are players who may be overvalued based on their past performance or injury concerns. Here are some players to consider fading this season:
- Karl-Anthony Towns (C, Minnesota Timberwolves)
- Reason for Bust: Injury history and potential reduced role with Rudy Gobert.
- 2023 Averages: 20.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 5.0 APG.
- Klay Thompson (SG, Golden State Warriors)
- Reason for Bust: Age and injury concerns may limit his production.
- 2023 Averages: 20.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.4 APG.
- Chris Paul (PG, Golden State Warriors)
- Reason for Bust: His role is uncertain and he struggles to stay healthy.
- 2023 Averages: 13.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 9.1 APG.
Benefits of a Strategic Draft Approach
Strategically targeting sleepers, breakouts, and avoiding busts can significantly enhance your fantasy basketball team. Here are some benefits:
- Maximize Value: Find hidden gems who provide high returns on lower draft investments.
- Build Depth: Diversify your roster with players who have breakout potential, ensuring a well-rounded team.
- Avoid Overpaying: By identifying busts, you can steer clear of players who may not live up to their draft position.
Practical Tips for Identifying Players
Here are some practical tips for finding the right sleepers, breakouts, and busts:
Analyze Recent Performances
Look closely at players’ performances at the end of the previous season. Players who finished strong may carry that momentum into the next season.
Follow Injury Reports
Stay updated with the latest news regarding player injuries. A player’s health can greatly affect their fantasy viability.
Examine Team Dynamics
Understand how changes in a team’s roster can influence player performance. Trades, drafts, and free agency can all impact expected roles.
Case Studies: Success Stories from Previous Seasons
Taking a look back at previous seasons can provide insight into how players can emerge as key contributors:
| Player | Season | Pre-Season ADP | Final Season Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | 2021-22 | 70 | 9 |
| Ja Morant | 2021-22 | 80 | 2 |
| Tyrese Haliburton | 2021-22 | 90 | 35 |
First-Hand Experience
Having participated in various fantasy basketball leagues, I’ve found that my success largely hinges on my ability to identify and target the right players. In the 2022-23 season, I capitalized on Jalen Green’s breakout, selecting him late in the draft. His stellar performance helped my team secure a playoff berth.
By applying the strategies mentioned in this article, I not only improved my drafting skills but also gained valuable insights into how to navigate the evolving landscape of fantasy basketball.
Final Thoughts
As the 2024-25 fantasy basketball season approaches, preparation and research are essential in crafting a competitive team. By targeting key sleepers, breakouts, and avoiding busts, you can set yourself up for success in your league. Keep an eye on player performances, team dynamics, and injury reports to make informed decisions as you build your dream roster.
