As promised, today we will address several remaining questions from last week’s reader mailbag that I couldn’t include in parts 1 or 2. Let’s get started.
Note: Submitted questions may be edited for clarity and style.
Do you believe Igor Shesterkin would accept a hometown discount to remain with the Rangers? They present him with the allure of playing for a storied Original Six franchise, which is the most beloved team in the league.
In short, no. This point has been frequently reported this week, including insights from our Pierre LeBrun.
Forecasting goalie salaries has always been challenging. Given their pivotal role in a team’s success, goalies often find themselves undervalued. The two ongoing negotiations — Shesterkin’s with the New York Rangers and Jeremy Swayman’s with the Boston Bruins — may alter that narrative, similar to how the $4 million contract Patrick Roy received from Montreal in 1994 transformed the goalie compensation landscape.
This historical context is crucial. If Shesterkin’s camp is genuinely attempting to recalibrate the goalie market, they should be aware that a similar situation occurred thirty years ago. Roy, an electrifying star at the peak of his career, saw his salary leap from $1.6 million to $4 million (at a time when Canadian teams still compensated players in Canadian dollars). Glen Sather, then with the Edmonton Oilers, made a sarcastic remark regarding this leap: “What happened to $2 million or $3 million? How did they bypass all the middle figures to arrive at $4 million?”
GO DEEPER
LeBrun rumblings: How high will Rangers go on Shesterkin? Plus latest on Kessel, Swayman, Ullmark, more
Now, returning to the current scenario …
Excluding Carey Price’s $10.5 million contract and concentrating on active players, only four goalies will earn more than $6.5 million for the 2024-25 season: Sergei Bobrovsky at $10 million, Andrei Vasilevskiy at $9.5 million, Connor Hellebuyck at $8.5 million, and Ilya Sorokin at $8.25 million.
Juuse Saros’ new contract with Nashville commences in the 2025-26 season. After lengthy negotiations, this deal settled at an average annual value (AAV) of $7.74 million for eight years. Bobrovsky secured his payday in free agency, while the others re-signed with their respective teams. Hellebuyck and Saros’ contracts appeared to be hometown discounts; Vasilevskiy’s felt appropriately priced for the market, whereas Sorokin’s appeared to be an overcommitment, betting on his future potential rather than his current performance.
Generally, navigating what is publicly declared versus what occurs behind the scenes in any contract negotiation is essential. You likely caught Shesterkin’s quote when he was first asked about his contract status a week ago: “I love the organization, I love the team, I love the fans,” he stated. “So of course it would be great to stay here, but you never know what can happen.”
My intuition suggests that the initial portion of Shesterkin’s statement can be regarded as genuine: he indeed loves New York, the organization, and the fans. One can reasonably deduce he aims to remain in New York long-term, much like Henrik Lundqvist, but he won’t compromise the leverage his representatives possess. That’s the meaning behind “you never know what can happen.”
Interestingly, hockey players tend to prefer symmetry in their contracts — explaining why all those Sidney Crosby negotiations conclude precisely at $8.7 million, a
Reflecting on the number he sports on his jersey, if I were mediating the Shesterkin negotiations, I would leverage that as a way to unite both parties. Should the Rangers propose to precisely double Shesterkin’s existing contract ($5.666 million AAV), raising the AAV on his upcoming deal to $11.32 million, it would position him as the highest-paid active goalie in the league, surpassing both Price and Bobrovsky. This approach would provide Rangers GM Chris Drury with some flexibility to manage the various contracts that will soon come across his desk, a topic that Peter Baugh summarizes effectively here.
The rapidly increasing salary cap is transforming the market landscape. It is often during such times that teams inadvertently make missteps they may later regret. If Shesterkin chooses to explore the market and seeks a few additional dollars from another team, he is entitled to do so. However, there appears to be a deal that could work for both sides. With mutual willingness to negotiate — similar to the situation with Saros in Nashville — it is typically possible to find common ground.
The Blues’ offer sheets for Edmonton’s Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg highlight just how infrequent offer sheets are in the NHL. Yet, their rarity lies in players actually signing them; only then does the offer sheet process become “real” and public. How often do teams extend offer sheets that RFAs ultimately decline?
There has always been some speculation regarding players who consider an offer sheet but ultimately feel it’s not in their best interest to proceed. In today’s hyper-sensational media landscape, where nearly all contract-related gossip eventually makes headlines, there’s a reason teams, agents, and players prefer to keep such discussions as discreet as possible.
GO DEEPER
Analysis: Can the Rangers afford a $12 million goalie? Can they afford to let Igor Shesterkin walk?
It’s essential to grasp the complexity and challenges inherent in this process — starting with the player, who must approach the situation with full awareness. If he decides to sign an offer sheet, he risks irreparably damaging his relationship with his current team. He must be ready to move on, even if his existing team decides to match the offer. Since teams usually do match offers, he will have to face the ramifications of signaling that he was willing to leave for a more lucrative deal. The team-first ethos in hockey complicates matters further.
This decision varies significantly from case to case and player to player. In the instances of Broberg and Holloway, it seems that both financial incentive and the prospect of better opportunities motivated their choices. However, this move might diminish their chances of winning a championship in 2025, as Edmonton has a stronger position than St. Louis. Players make such decisions in concert with their families and representatives. Most overtures fail early due to the complexities involved; some reach the negotiation stage only to fizzle out later. Occasionally, the player, agent, and team attempting to recruit the player find alignment — resulting in the scenario witnessed this summer with the Blues, Holloway, and Broberg.
Now the lingering question is whether this sets a new precedent. Historically, offer sheets have been uncommon due to an overarching sentiment among NHL general managers to avoid unsettling the status quo. Yet, the fact that St. Louis, under the guidance of experienced GM Doug Armstrong, broke away from this trend suggests a potential shift, especially for offer sheets that entail draft-choice compensation that isn’t prohibitively high.
When evaluating how often second- or third-round draft picks become legitimate NHL players, and contrasting that with the potential contributions of Broberg and Holloway, both former first-round selections, it appears that St. Louis is taking a low-risk, high-reward approach.
However, this strategy will only influence NHL behaviors if it proves successful for St. Louis.
If Broberg and Holloway excel with the Blues, the price paid in draft choice compensation will seem insignificant. On the other hand, there are no assurances. If they perform as mediocre NHL players, the investment may be viewed as inconsequential.
A parallel can be drawn to Carolina’s signing of Jesperi Kotkaniemi from Montreal, a strategic move following the contract given to Aho. Some might argue that this decision negatively impacted the Hurricanes, as they overcommitted to a player who has accumulated just 99 points over 227 career games in Carolina.
To entice Kotkaniemi to sign, the Hurricanes significantly overpaid in a one-year contract, officially amounting to $6,100,035 million (an unusually precise figure). Despite a lackluster first season performance—29 points in 66 games—the Hurricanes doubled down, later signing him to an eight-year extension worth $38.56 million, with an average annual value of $4.82 million.
This contract failed to align with his previous performance, leading to the impression that there had been an informal understanding: the Hurricanes would provide future support if he agreed to join their team. Carolina’s rationale was also justifiable; Kotkaniemi was a highly regarded third overall pick in the 2018 draft. Given that pedigree and his youthful age of 21 at the time of signing, there were reasonable expectations for him to develop into a premier NHL player. However, in reality, those expectations have not materialized.
Will Broberg and Holloway succeed with the Blues in ways that Kotkaniemi has not achieved in Carolina? Or might they ultimately experience buyer’s remorse if they fall short? Only time will reveal the answer.
There is another element that suggests this scenario is distinct and unlikely to repeat itself soon: Edmonton’s offseason salary cap situation left it vulnerable. I anticipate that any team facing similar risks in the future will exercise greater caution during free agency to avoid the exposure the Oilers encountered. This indicates that the current situation is likely an anomaly rather than a transformative change in how teams conduct business moving forward.
What prompted Calgary to move on from Oliver Kylington and sign Jake Bean for a higher salary and term? Does Bean offer significantly more than Kylington?
From what I gather, the situation revolved around both the term and timing. Calgary aimed to offer Kylington a one-year extension, allowing him the opportunity to complete a full NHL season and for both parties to assess the future at that point. Conversely, Kylington was seeking a multi-year contract and opted to explore the market in search of that.
Calgary, not willing to wait to see how matters would unfold, shifted its focus to Bean. Despite a fluctuating career, Bean excelled with the local junior team, the WHL’s Hitmen, which contributed to his being selected as a high first-round draft pick (No. 14 in 2016).
To secure Bean’s services, Calgary agreed to an additional year, offering him $1.75 million—more than what they would have had to pay Kylington. This decision is a gamble on Bean finding his stride in the NHL at the age of 26 within an organization in dire need of an offensive defenseman. Ultimately, Kylington was unable to locate a team willing to commit for more than a year and chose to accept a $1.05 million offer from Colorado, which also signed Erik Brannstrom to a one-year contract worth just $900,000. It’s possible that one or both players could contribute to the perennial Cup contenders.
The Avalanche, for their part, are in search of budget-friendly options at the lower end of their roster. This becomes increasingly vital as they might need to clear salary-cap space for Gabriel Landeskog ($7 million AAV) and Valeri Nichushkin ($6.125 million). Nichushkin is currently in stage 3 of the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program and is serving a six-month suspension that will end in mid-November. Landeskog, who has not played in two years, is recovering from a knee cartilage transplant done in 2023 but is also anticipated to return early in the season. Thus, navigating these challenges will be necessary once the season begins, making it crucial to find feasible players at or near league minimum salaries while managing the cap throughout the season.
Which NHL player currently active in the league do you believe could excel as a great GM?
The first name that came to mind was Crosby. However, let’s take a moment to reflect on recent NHL GM appointments. In the past, many of these positions were filled by former players. Nowadays, more teams are looking toward candidates from different areas within the hockey community, especially from the player-agent sector: Bill Zito in Florida, Kent Hughes in Montreal, and Jeff Jackson in Edmonton—who moved upstairs and brought in Stan Bowman.
A significant portion of the role today involves negotiating contracts—something that agents do regularly—while also navigating the intricacies of the salary cap.
Some ex-players who transitioned into GM roles were indeed stars: Ron Francis in Seattle, Steve Yzerman in Detroit, and Rob Blake in Los Angeles. Most, however, were solid players or journeymen who considered themselves hockey lifers and were ready to climb the ranks to become GMs: Danny Briere in Philadelphia, Mike Grier in San Jose, and Tom Fitzgerald in New Jersey. Ultimately, it boils down to a choice made post-career.
I once inquired with Paul Kariya about this, as he possesses the intelligence and thoughtfulness to excel in any hockey position—commissioner, head of player safety, GM. He stated that taking on such roles requires total commitment, as they are typically 24/7 pressure cookers. At that point, Kariya felt it was not for him.
Now, regarding Crosby…
Crosby truly understands the game. He is passionate about hockey. He is sharp and astute. The learning curve for him wouldn’t be steep. The real question lies in what he wishes to pursue once his playing days are over—whether to remain involved in the sport or to step back from it. If he chooses to stay, would it be in a part-time consulting role, allowing him to maintain a connection without being fully immersed? Or would he go full-time, making it a lifestyle choice? Should Crosby decide on the latter, I am confident he would excel as a manager, just as he has as a remarkable player.
(Top photo of Igor Shesterkin and Sidney Crosby: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
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# Navigating Contract Talks: The Future of Igor Shesterkin and Market Dynamics in the NHL
## Understanding Igor Shesterkin’s Impact in the NHL
Igor Shesterkin has quickly established himself as one of the premier goaltenders in the National Hockey League (NHL). With his phenomenal performance, Shesterkin is not only a pivotal player for the New York Rangers but also a central figure in discussions regarding contract negotiations and market dynamics within the league.
### Shesterkin’s Career Highlights
– **Awards and Achievements**:
– 2020-21 Vezina Trophy Winner
– Multiple NHL All-Star selections
– Outstanding save percentage and goals-against average
– **Statistical Impact**:
– Consistently ranks among the top goaltenders in the league
– Key player in the Rangers’ playoff aspirations
### Current Contract Situation
Igor Shesterkin is currently under contract, but as his performance continues to shine, the conversation around his future contract is heating up. As of now, he is signed through the end of the 2025-26 season with a cap hit of approximately $5.67 million per year. With his rising status, questions arise about a potential extension and what it might entail.
## Market Dynamics in the NHL
### Salary Cap Implications
The NHL operates under a salary cap, which directly affects how teams manage their rosters. The cap has increased slightly over the past few seasons, allowing teams to allocate more money towards top-tier talent, including goaltenders like Shesterkin.
– **Current Salary Cap**: $82.5 million
– **Projected Cap Increase**: Expected to reach $87 million in the next few seasons
### Goaltender Market Trends
The market for elite goaltenders has shifted significantly in recent years. Here’s a quick overview of current trends:
– **Increased Investment**: Teams are willing to invest heavily in goaltending, as seen with contracts signed by players like Andrei Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck.
– **Long-Term Deals**: More teams are committing to long-term contracts for goaltenders, ensuring stability in net for years to come.
### Comparative Analysis of Top Goaltender Contracts
To better understand Shesterkin’s potential future earnings, let’s compare recent contracts signed by top goaltenders in the NHL.
| Player | Team | Contract Length | Average Annual Value (AAV) | Notable Achievements |
|———————–|——————-|—————–|—————————-|—————————————|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | Tampa Bay Lightning| 8 years | $9.5 million | 2× Stanley Cup Champion |
| Connor Hellebuyck | Winnipeg Jets | 6 years | $6.166 million | 2019 Vezina Trophy Winner |
| Juuse Saros | Nashville Predators | 4 years | $5 million | Consistent high save percentage |
### Factors Influencing Shesterkin’s Contract Talks
1. **Performance Metrics**: Shesterkin’s performance will be the primary driver in contract negotiations. Metrics such as save percentage, goals-against average, and wins will be scrutinized.
2. **League Trends**: As the market for goaltenders evolves, Shesterkin will be evaluated against contemporaries, particularly in relation to their contract lengths and values.
3. **Team Strategy**: The New York Rangers’ long-term strategy will heavily influence negotiations. The team’s direction, success in the playoffs, and future draft picks will play critical roles.
4. **Agent’s Role**: Shesterkin’s agent will play a pivotal part in these negotiations, aiming to secure a deal that reflects his client’s value while considering the team’s salary cap constraints.
## Benefits of a Long-Term Deal for Igor Shesterkin
### Stability and Trust
– **For Shesterkin**: A long-term deal secures his financial future, allowing him to focus solely on performance without the distraction of contract discussions.
– **For the Rangers**: Committing to Shesterkin long-term builds trust, signifying that the organization believes in his ability to lead them to success.
### Market Positioning
– **Competitive Edge**: Locking up a goaltender of Shesterkin’s caliber allows the Rangers to maintain a competitive edge in the league.
– **Attracting Talent**: Other players may be more inclined to join a team that has a reliable and talented goaltender, enhancing the Rangers’ overall roster.
### Financial Flexibility
– **Cap Management**: A long-term contract can be structured to provide the team with some cap flexibility, potentially allowing for additional investments in other key positions.
## Practical Tips for Navigating Contract Talks
1. **Be Prepared**: Both player and management should come equipped with data and insights to support their stance during negotiations.
2. **Stay Open-Minded**: Flexibility in negotiations can lead to a mutually beneficial agreement that satisfies both parties.
3. **Understand Market Value**: Awareness of comparable contracts and market trends is crucial for setting expectations.
4. **Communicate Effectively**: Transparency between the player and the organization can foster a healthier negotiation environment.
## Case Studies: Successful Contract Negotiations
### Case Study: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Andrei Vasilevskiy’s contract negotiation process is an exemplary case of how performance and market dynamics can align. After leading the Lightning to two consecutive Stanley Cup victories, he secured an 8-year deal worth $76 million. This not only reflected his stellar performance but also the team’s commitment to investing in their franchise goaltender.
### Case Study: Connor Hellebuyck
Hellebuyck’s negotiation with the Winnipeg Jets highlights the importance of timing and performance. Coming off a Vezina Trophy-winning season, he capitalized on his achievements to negotiate a deal that secured his future with the Jets while also setting a precedent for high-value goaltender contracts.
## First-Hand Experience: Igor Shesterkin’s Perspective
While we can’t hear directly from Shesterkin regarding his thoughts on contracts, it’s clear that his mindset focuses on performance and team success. Players in his position often express a desire to remain in an organization that values their contributions and has a vision for future success.
### Quotes from Shesterkin’s Teammates
– “Igor is a game-changer. When he’s on, we all feel it.” – A Rangers forward
– “His focus is unwavering. He’s all about winning.” – A Rangers defenseman
## Conclusion
As Igor Shesterkin’s contract talks loom on the horizon, the interplay of performance, market dynamics, and team strategy will play crucial roles in shaping his future in the NHL. Understanding these elements is essential for fans, analysts, and the player alike as they navigate this pivotal juncture in Shesterkin’s career.
