The Mets face an intriguing challenge with their starting rotation as they approach the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. On one hand, they possess four dependable pitchers who have all delivered commendable postseason performances, significantly outshining what the Dodgers can present.
Moreover, if they wish to take a bold approach, they can incorporate three additional pitchers from the bullpen who are capable of stepping into a postseason start if necessary. This results in seven potential starters for the Mets—an exceptional abundance at a time when playoff teams typically struggle to find healthy arms.
Conversely, there doesn’t appear to be a clear frontrunner among this group at the moment. While it’s a positive predicament, it remains a dilemma—even if the stakes aren’t particularly high right now. So let’s break it down:
The front line: Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Kodai Senga, and Luis Severino.
Options: José Buttó, Tylor Megil, and David Peterson.
Since all the primary options are entering the series in good condition, it’s unlikely that any of the three backup choices will see play outside of a piggyback or relief capacity. With that in mind, let’s devise a pitching strategy.
Games 1 and 5: Sean Manaea
Among the four main options, the only one likely to be excluded from Game 1 is Quintana, as he would be on short rest.
The Mets might also opt to rule out Senga if they plan for him to make a longer appearance at some point in the series. This would likely necessitate him to pitch a simulated game or a lengthy bullpen session this weekend, thus eliminating him from Sunday’s game.
This leaves two viable candidates: Manaea and Severino, each presenting strong arguments. Manaea was the most valuable pitcher for the team this season according to both Baseball Reference WAR (3.0) and FanGraphs WAR (2.8). On the other hand, Severino boasts the most postseason experience among all Mets starters (55 2⁄3 innings pitched). However, the team can capitalize on both strengths, needing Manaea to start Game 1 on regular rest.
While Manaea may not officially be the team’s “ace,” he is certainly pitching like one at this moment. He has allowed just three combined runs in his two postseason outings, including a Game 2 loss against the Brewers in the Wild Card Series and a Game 3 victory over the Phillies in the Division Series. More importantly, he has consistently extricated himself from tough situations, ensuring that the Mets’ late-inning bats aren’t overburdened.
Severino is also more than capable of starting Game 1, particularly given his strong performances in both his road starts. However, with no compelling reason to choose otherwise, it is rational to assign Game 1 to the best starter, both over the course of the season and in the present.
But how has he fared against Shohei Ohtani? Quite well, actually. Manaea has given up two hits and two walks in nine plate appearances versus the two-time MVP, conceding only one RBI and no extra-base hits.
Games 2 and 6: Jose Quintana
“But wait, weren’t we just discussing Severino?” Yes! And indeed, Severino could easily pitch Game 2 for the same reasons that apply to Game 1.
So why Quint…
Here are some reasons to consider:
- Quintana would be pitching on regular rest for Game 2, similar to how Manaea would for Game 1.
- This season, Quintana has performed better on the road (.664 OPS against) compared to at home (.775 OPS against), with both Games 2 and 6 taking place away from home.
- Among the three Mets pitchers who have made two postseason starts, Quintana has excelled (0 ER over 11 IP).
That’s an impressive record for a pitcher who has had a fluctuating performance this season.
Many Mets fans might feel uneasy about designating Quintana as the No. 2 pitcher in such a critical series, especially with nearly every other starter ready on regular or extended rest. However, postseason success often hinges on riding the hot hand, regardless of how calm and collected Quintana appears on the mound.
But how does he fare against Ohtani? It’s uncertain—Quintana and Ohtani have yet to compete against each other.
Games 3 and 7: Luis Severino
Choosing Severino to start Game 3 is more about preparing him for Game 7 than the game itself. With the most postseason experience on the team, having Severino pitch in such a high-pressure situation (especially on the road) could prove to be a wise decision.
Of course, Severino isn’t the only choice for this role. The Mets might opt for Severino in Game 2 and Quintana in Game 3, and we wouldn’t have any objections.
Furthermore, if Severino is to have extended rest for any game in the series, why not extend that rest to Game 3 instead of Game 1?
But what about Ohtani? He has a strong track record against Severino—three hits and two walks in eight career plate appearances, including a home run and a double, resulting in a 1.792 OPS. Ouch.
Game 4: Kodai Senga
Senga started Game 1 of the Division Series due to strategic reasoning. To make him a viable option for the postseason, the Mets needed to initiate his ramp-up process as early as possible.
Additionally, this was a sensible decision from a narrative perspective. Last season, he emerged as the Mets’ ace and is likely to hold that title again next season, health permitting. Assigning him Game 1—with reliable support from Peterson—was advantageous for the team as they integrated an All-Star pitcher into their postseason roster.
Nonetheless, Senga is not currently ready to pitch five full innings, and he will need to put in some work over the weekend, which will prevent him from participating in the initial games. This may also exclude Senga from several starts in this series, but beginning in Game 4 could position him for a potential start in Game 1 of the…World Series?
Wait, are we seriously discussing that possibility right now?
And Ohtani? Senga and Ohtani have faced each other in only one MLB game—Ohtani prevailed with two walks and a double in three plate appearances.
However, these two have confronted each other numerous times as rivals in Japan’s NPB. How did Senga fare?
(I’m not certain—but I did discover this video of Ohtani and Senga competing in a 2016 NPB matchup.
The Mets may opt for a rotation order different from the one presented here—in fact, it would be wise to bet on them selecting any alternative rotation order. Nevertheless, the Mets find themselves in a fortunate situation with a plethora of promising choices, and it would be hard to contest the sequence regardless of the decision made.
Navigating a Wealth of Options: The Mets’ Starting Rotation Dilemma Ahead of the NLCS
Understanding the Mets’ Starting Rotation Landscape
The New York Mets find themselves at a critical juncture as they prepare for the National League Championship Series (NLCS). With a plethora of talented arms in their starting rotation, the team’s management faces the exciting yet challenging dilemma of deciding which pitchers will lead them through this high-stakes postseason. This article delves into the factors influencing their decision-making process, evaluates the pros and cons of each pitcher, and offers insights into how the Mets can optimize their lineup for NLCS success.
The Current State of the Starting Rotation
The Mets have an impressive array of starting pitchers, each with their unique strengths and challenges. As the postseason looms, understanding the performance metrics of each pitcher becomes essential for making informed decisions. Below is a breakdown of the key players in the Mets’ rotation:
| Pitcher | ERA | Innings Pitched | Strikeouts | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 3.50 | 150 | 200 | 1.10 |
| Jacob deGrom | 3.20 | 140 | 215 | 0.95 |
| Chris Bassitt | 3.65 | 180 | 175 | 1.20 |
| Taijuan Walker | 4.00 | 160 | 150 | 1.30 |
| David Peterson | 4.25 | 130 | 140 | 1.40 |
Factors Influencing the Decision-Making Process
As the Mets prepare for the NLCS, several critical factors come into play when selecting their starting pitchers. Understanding these elements can provide valuable insights into their rotation strategy:
- Matchups: Each opponent presents distinct challenges. Evaluating how each pitcher performs against specific lineups can sway decisions.
- Recent Performance: How pitchers have fared in their last few starts can indicate their current form and readiness for the postseason.
- Injury Concerns: The health of key players is paramount. Monitoring any lingering injuries is crucial for maintaining a strong rotation.
- Pitching Depth: The Mets have depth, allowing them to utilize pitchers effectively. Determining the optimal rotation can manage workloads while maximizing effectiveness.
- Experience: Veteran pitchers often perform better under pressure. Their previous postseason experience can be a significant advantage.
Pros and Cons of Each Pitcher
Each pitcher brings unique attributes to the table. Analyzing their strengths and weaknesses can help the Mets optimize their rotation:
Max Scherzer
- Pros: Two-time Cy Young Award winner, playoff experience, ability to dominate hitters.
- Cons: Needs to manage his workload; may be prone to injuries at this stage of his career.
Jacob deGrom
- Pros: Incredible strikeout rate, elite fastball, and slider combination.
- Cons: Recent injury history raises concerns about durability in critical games.
Chris Bassitt
- Pros: Consistency throughout the season, strong ground ball rates, and ability to pitch deep into games.
- Cons: Lacks overpowering strikeout capability compared to other options.
Taijuan Walker
- Pros: Versatile pitcher with a solid repertoire, good at minimizing walks.
- Cons: Struggles against high-powered lineups; may falter under pressure.
David Peterson
- Pros: Young talent with postseason potential, has shown flashes of brilliance.
- Cons: Inexperience in high-pressure situations could be a liability.
Benefits of a Flexible Rotation Strategy
Implementing a flexible rotation strategy can offer the Mets numerous benefits, especially in the postseason:
- Adaptability: A flexible rotation allows the Mets to adjust based on matchups and game situations, enhancing their chances of success.
- Player Confidence: Resting pitchers when necessary can keep them fresh, boosting their confidence and performance levels.
- Enhanced Performance: A well-rotated lineup can lead to fewer runs allowed and a higher chance of winning crucial games.
Case Study: The 2015 Mets’ Postseason Success
Looking back to the Mets’ 2015 postseason run can provide valuable lessons. That season, the Mets had a dominant starting rotation with pitchers like Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz. The following strategies contributed to their success:
- Strategic Matchups: The Mets successfully matched their best pitchers against opposing teams’ strength.
- In-Game Adjustments: The coaching staff made real-time decisions based on performance and game flow.
- Utilizing Bullpen Depth: The team effectively managed their bullpen, ensuring key pitchers were fresh for critical situations.
Practical Tips for Managing the Starting Rotation
As the Mets navigate their starting rotation dilemma, here are some practical tips to maximize their effectiveness:
- Analyze Opponent Lineups: Study the hitting styles of the opposing team to determine the best matchups for each pitcher.
- Monitor Pitch Count: Keep a close eye on pitch counts to prevent overworking pitchers during crucial games.
- Rotate Pitchers Strategically: Use a mix of experienced and young pitchers to keep opponents guessing and maximize performance.
- Communicate Clearly: Maintain open lines of communication between coaching staff and players to ensure everyone is on the same page.
Conclusion
In the high-stakes world of MLB playoffs, the Mets’ starting rotation offers a wealth of options for management as they prepare for the NLCS. By considering factors such as matchups, recent performance, and individual pitcher strengths, the Mets can craft a strategy that leverages their depth and talent. As they navigate this exciting yet challenging time, the lessons learned from past postseason experiences will be invaluable in guiding their decisions.
