Baseball’s trade season officially began late Thursday with perhaps the most significant name on the move in this window, Randy Arozarena, joining the Seattle Mariners. While this may dampen the spirits of those anticipating excitement akin to the season’s start, it reflects the current state of the market.
At one point, the New York Mets were contemplating a trade involving Pete Alonso, but then the team turned its performance around. The Toronto Blue Jays are looking to offload several players but are holding onto Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Detroit Tigers could command a hefty return for Tarik Skubal, yet they have no intention of trading him. Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox are open to offers for Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr., but they face unexpected hurdles in facilitating a deal for Crochet and haven’t found a team willing to meet their demands for Robert.
However, situations can shift rapidly. With the July 30 deadline looming at 6 p.m. ET, teams on both ends of the spectrum may become desperate and make surprising deals. One general manager expressed frustration on Thursday, stating his desire to “do something stupid” due to the scarcity of top-tier talent available.
Currently, the most prominent names in discussions are from a select few teams: Miami (Jazz Chisholm and Tanner Scott), Tampa Bay (Isaac Paredes and Zach Eflin), Detroit (Jack Flaherty), and the Los Angeles Angels (Luis Rengifo, Tyler Anderson, and Carlos Estevez). It’s a bleak scenario. Based on information from major league sources involved in negotiations throughout the league, here’s a look at how the deadline situation has developed and what lies ahead.
The revelation that Crochet, a breakout star of the 2024 season, intends to pitch through the remainder of the regular season and forego a possible playoff run with a new team—unless he secures a contract extension—caught many interested general managers off guard.
“Why would I want to acquire a player who doesn’t want to pitch in the playoffs?” one GM inquired.
From Crochet’s standpoint, the issue is more complex. His determination to complete the regular season exceeds expectations set at the beginning of the year, a time when he had accumulated only 73 career innings over his first four seasons as a reliever and underwent Tommy John surgery. His remarkable transformation into a top starter—boasting a major league-best 157 strikeouts alongside only 25 walks and a 3.07 ERA over 111 innings—has sparked discussions on how to best manage his workload as the season progresses.
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On Thursday, Crochet clarified his position: he does not want to jeopardize his chances for a lucrative contract by altering what he believes is a regimen that ensures his health. This approach mirrors that of Houston Astros closer Josh Hader, who established specific guidelines for his usage during his time with the Milwaukee Brewers, avoided significant injuries, and subsequently signed a five-year, $95 million contract with Houston last offseason.
For Crochet, who shares representation with Hader at CAA, the logic is similar: securing an extension would protect him from the risk of injury and allow him to pitch without concern for how his usage might impact his future. This kind of strategy is more typical in football holdouts than in baseball, where relief pitchers are often viewed as more interchangeable than starters, whose workloads have progressively diminished over the years.
Crochet’s strategy—no enforced shutdown to save innings for October or shifting to the bullpen—surprised teams that had assumed acquiring Crochet would not necessitate an extension, according to various sources. Beyond his exceptional fastball-cutter combination, part of Crochet’s appeal was the low salaries he would command over the next two seasons prior to free agency. Due to his injury history and limited innings, Crochet’s salary of $800,000—just $60,000 above the league minimum—reflects his first year in arbitration. Regardless of his performance in the coming months, Crochet will earn significantly less than most frontline starters, thanks to the precedent-based arbitration system that does not typically allow for substantial year-over-year salary increases.
Moreover, negotiating an extension for a player with Crochet’s background would typically take months. His asking price would likely exceed nine figures—potentially in line with Tyler Glasnow, who secured a five-year, $136.5 million extension after being traded from Tampa Bay to the Los Angeles Dodgers last December. Even if a team’s evaluation suggests he merits such a contract, it is likely that initial offers would be much lower. The likelihood of a franchise offering Crochet ultimately more in dollars than the total innings he has pitched as a major league starter seems improbable.
Before revealing his intentions on Thursday, Crochet was still a candidate to remain with the White Sox for the season’s duration. Considering only contenders might pursue him, it will likely require a team willing to grant him a substantial new deal—which would eliminate many lower-revenue franchises from the mix—or one prepared to gamble on trading for Crochet and persuading him to alter his stance. Even in the latter scenario, the inherent risk would likely be factored into trade offers, diminishing the potential returns for the White Sox.
The ramifications for Chicago were swiftly apparent: any hopes of landing a transformative return for Crochet before July 30 suffered a considerable setback on Thursday. The trade deadline remains, and while a deal is still feasible, the more probable outcome is that Chicago re-evaluates its options for moving him this winter—if Crochet can navigate the final two months of the season without injury.
Crochet is not the only top talent that might remain where they are. The White Sox’s asking price for Luis Robert, their dynamic 26-year-old center fielder, has understandably been steep, resulting in minimal progress toward a trade. The lack of movement is surprising, particularly given the scarcity of impactful bats available.
Teams desperate for offensive upgrades are hoping Toronto will make Guerrero available, and they suspect the Blue Jays’ seemingly firm stance is merely a bargaining tactic to inflate returns. (While many acknowledge this is unlikely, they remain hopeful.) Meanwhile, Oakland seems to have shifted towards retaining Brent Rooker, who recently hit his 24th home run, holds a batting average of .289/.366/.578 this season, and has three years of team control remaining after this year. In Texas, a team that was on the brink of throwing in the towel for 2024, the Rangers have won five consecutive games and sit just two games behind Houston in the American League West standings.
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The recent shift in division dynamics likely influenced Seattle’s decision to acquire Arozarena in exchange for outfield prospect Aidan Smith, right-hander Brody Hopkins, and a player to be named later.
Although neither player is highly ranked on Seattle’s public prospect lists, both are considered promising assets, making them a solid return for Arozarena.
Tampa Bay’s decision to trade Arozarena to Seattle was expected, given that the Mariners, frequent trade partners, have seen their offensive difficulties erode a 10-game lead in the AL West. The Rays are keenly aware of value, and in this environment, productive bats are invaluable. This is also why general managers across the league anticipate that the Rays will trade Paredes, their All-Star third baseman. Despite his talent, Paredes occupies the same position as Junior Caminero, one of baseball’s top prospects. Any veteran on the Rays roster with a significant salary, including first baseman Yandy Diaz, second baseman Brandon Lowe, and relievers Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Colin Poche, and even Garrett Cleavinger, might be on the trading block.
Eflin is a notable name, even with an $18 million salary slated for 2025, and he could be traded quickly. Fedde ticks all the boxes: he has good stuff, solid performance, and a favorable salary (around $10 million through the end of 2025). Particularly if Crochet remains, Fedde would likely be moved closer to the deadline, unless a team acts swiftly. Among the starting pitchers available, Flaherty stands out as the most productive, sporting a 2.95 ERA along with 133 strikeouts and 19 walks in 106 innings pitched. Teams in need of starting pitching—like Baltimore, Cleveland, San Diego, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Houston, Minnesota, and Boston—are vying for a limited pool of playoff-ready arms, with borderline candidates including Toronto’s Yusei Kikuchi, Colorado’s Cal Quantrill, and Cincinnati’s Frankie Montas.
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Another highly sought-after starting pitcher is found with the Los Angeles Angels, who possess several valuable assets heading into the deadline. The left-handed Anderson has recently lowered his ERA to 2.91, and he is contracted for $13 million next season, a relative bargain. Additionally, Rengifo is a .300-plus-hitting infielder who won’t hit free agency until after 2025, with a reasonable salary of $4.4 million, in a market that is nearly devoid of starting infielders while half a dozen teams seek infield assistance.
The return the Angels receive for Estevez, an impending free agent, will signal how much of a sellers’ market this ultimately becomes. Generally, soon-to-be-free-agent relievers do not yield significant returns, but Estevez and Scott, the Marlins’ left-handed closer, could prove to be exceptions. After trading left-handed reliever A.J. Puk to Arizona for slugging infielder Deyvison De Los Santos and center fielder Andrew Pintar, Miami is expected to be quite active in the coming 96 hours. Scott is on the move, and center fielder Jazz Chisholm is increasingly likely to don a different uniform by mid-next week.
As circumstances evolve, the chance for other teams to adjust their strategies arises. San Francisco, sitting at 49-55 after a loss to the Dodgers on Thursday, is particularly intriguing. Reigning National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell has performed well since returning from a second stint on the injured list this season, yet his contract is complicated enough to discourage teams from pursuing him. If Snell continues pitching effectively, he is almost certain to opt out of the second year of his two-year, $62 million contract. Conversely, should he suffer another injury, next year would incur a $31 million obligation. The greatest challenge facing teams at the deadline is uncertainty, and no player epitomizes this better than Snell.
Other teams might adopt the Rays’ model—who, even at 52-51, are parting with productive players—to gain a competitive advantage. The Chicago Cubs are in a position to consider trading second baseman Nico Hoerner, outfielder Ian Happ, or even Cody Bellinger, who, like Snell, has an opt-out option for this year but is guaranteed more ($52.5 million) in subsequent years. The Cincinnati Reds might explore trading beyond Montas and their free-agent-to-be relievers (Lucas Sims, Buck Farmer, Justin Wilson) to include infielder Jonathan India or right-hander Nick Martinez (who boasts a 56-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 72 innings).
For many front offices, the Baltimore Orioles are the most compelling organization. Their talented young core and AL-best 61-41 record make them intriguing as they approach the deadline.
They have already pulled off a rare trade by sending veteran outfielder Austin Hays to the NL-leading Philadelphia for reliever Seranthony Dominguez and center fielder Cristian Pache. Furthermore, they have engaged in discussions regarding first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and center fielder Cedric Mullins. It is uncommon for a team considered a World Series favorite to be as open to trading away veteran hitters as the Orioles are, especially given their wealth of All-Star talent alongside young players ready to step in (like Coby Mayo at first base and Colton Cowser in center field).
Regardless of whether the Orioles decide to subtract from their roster, they are certainly in the market to add talent. They have shown interest in Crochet, but the real prize could be Skubal, the exceptional starter for the Detroit Tigers. At 27, Skubal is under contract until after the 2026 season. This week, several general managers have posed a similar question, acknowledging how well Skubal fits with Baltimore:
Would you trade shortstop Jackson Holliday, the top prospect in baseball, straight up for Skubal?
The responses differ. Some are quick to agree, while others firmly reject the idea. The majority find themselves pondering the question before leaning one way or the other, with both arguments holding merit.
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The advantages of trading Holliday are clear: Baltimore already has an MVP-caliber shortstop in Gunnar Henderson. Combining Skubal with ace Corbin Burnes would establish the Orioles as having the premier starting pitching duo in baseball. Furthermore, since Burnes is hitting free agency this winter, acquiring Skubal would provide essential insurance against losing Burnes. Having the assurance of Skubal during the prime years of Henderson and Adley Rutschman would be a significant asset for an organization whose primary long-term question centers around its pitching staff.
On the flip side, Skubal has a history of missing substantial time due to arm injuries. Moreover, his projections over the next couple of seasons only slightly exceed those of Holliday, who is just 20 years old. Trading away a player of Holliday’s caliber so early in his career—especially for a pitcher—is often seen as taboo in modern baseball. With David Rubenstein as the new owner of the Orioles, the team is equipped to handle pitching needs financially rather than through trades.
From Detroit’s standpoint, the dilemma also has two aspects. On one hand, the Tigers have an urgent need for hitters—their current starting shortstop, Javier Baez, ranks as the second-least-productive player on an active MLB roster—and they are thriving in terms of player development, highlighted by Jackson Jobe, the top pitching prospect in baseball. On the other hand, the AL Central is a division within reach, particularly with a standout pitching duo like Skubal and Jobe; the Tigers’ future shortstop, Kevin McGonigle, is already excelling in High-A at the age of 19; and finding a legitimate No. 1 starter like Skubal is more challenging than ever.
This debate may lean more toward casual conversation than a serious trade possibility. The Tigers would likely seek more than Holliday to hedge against the risk of a potential flop, while the Orioles are hesitant to even contemplate moving him. Nonetheless, even if the discussion is unlikely to culminate in action, it remains an engaging topic to ponder.
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MLB Trade Deadline Preview: A Landscape of Uncertainty and Potential Moves
Understanding the MLB Trade Deadline
The MLB Trade Deadline is a pivotal event in Major League Baseball, typically occurring on July 31st. This date marks the final opportunity for teams to make trades before the postseason. As the deadline approaches, teams assess their rosters, weighing their chances for playoff contention against their long-term goals. With uncertainty in the air, this period is filled with speculation about potential moves, deal-making strategies, and the impact on the league’s competitive landscape.
Current Landscape of MLB Teams
This season, the landscape of MLB teams presents a mix of contenders, pretenders, and teams in rebuilding phases. Here’s a closer look:
- Contenders: Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros are looking to solidify their rosters for a deep postseason run.
- Pretenders: Clubs such as the Pittsburgh Pirates face an uphill battle for playoff contention and may look to offload veteran players.
- Rebuilding Teams: Franchises like the Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs are focused on future growth, potentially trading away established stars for prospects.
Key Factors Influencing Trades
Several factors contribute to the dynamics of the MLB Trade Deadline:
1. Team Performance
Teams that are exceeding expectations may look to bolster their rosters, while underperforming teams might pivot to a rebuilding strategy.
2. Player Contracts
Players approaching free agency can become prime trade candidates, especially if teams want to avoid losing them without compensation. Upcoming free agents like Marcus Semien and Chris Sale could be on the move.
3. Injuries
Injuries to key players can shift a team’s approach dramatically, forcing them to seek immediate help or re-evaluate their playoff aspirations.
4. Farm System Depth
Teams with a strong farm system have more leverage in trades, allowing them to acquire established players without gutting their future prospects.
Potential Trade Targets
As the trade deadline approaches, several players are generating buzz in the rumor mill. Here’s a look at some key names to watch:
| Player | Current Team | Position | Potential Suitors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Washington Nationals | Outfielder | Yankees, Dodgers, Padres |
| David Bednar | Pittsburgh Pirates | Relief Pitcher | Red Sox, Braves, Mets |
| Chad Green | New York Yankees | Relief Pitcher | Astros, White Sox, Rays |
| Tim Anderson | Chicago White Sox | Shortstop | Braves, Giants, Phillies |
Impact of Trades on Team Dynamics
Trades can significantly impact a team’s performance and chemistry. Here are a few ways in which trades can alter a team’s dynamics:
1. Boosting Morale
Adding a star player can invigorate a clubhouse, providing a morale boost and increasing competition among players.
2. Filling Gaps
Teams may target specific positions to fill gaps caused by injuries or underperformance, enhancing their overall balance.
3. Long-Term Strategy
Teams in rebuilding phases can acquire young talent, leading to a brighter future while shedding expensive contracts.
Case Studies: Historical Trades and Their Outcomes
Examining past trades can provide insights into the potential success or challenges of future moves. Here are a few notable examples:
1. The Trade that Changed the Cubs
In 2016, the Chicago Cubs acquired Aroldis Chapman from the New York Yankees. This trade solidified their bullpen, and Chapman played a crucial role in helping the Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years.
2. The Astros’ Bold Move
The Houston Astros acquired Justin Verlander in 2017, which transformed their pitching staff. Verlander’s presence was instrumental in leading the Astros to the World Series title that season.
3. The Yankees’ Infamous Trade
In 2004, the Boston Red Sox acquired Keith Foulke from the Oakland Athletics, who played a significant role in their 2004 championship run, breaking an 86-year curse.
Practical Tips for Teams Approaching the Deadline
Here are some essential tips for teams navigating the trade deadline:
- Assess Needs: Clearly define what areas need improvement and target those positions specifically.
- Leverage Prospects: Use your minor league depth to your advantage, as teams are more willing to trade established players for promising talent.
- Stay Informed: Monitor player performance trends, injury reports, and team dynamics to make informed decisions.
- Build Relationships: Maintain open lines of communication with other teams to facilitate potential trades.
Conclusion: The Excitement of Uncertainty
The MLB Trade Deadline is always a time filled with excitement and uncertainty. Teams must navigate the complexities of player performance, contracts, and future goals. As fans eagerly await the latest news and rumors, the potential moves made during this time can reshape franchises and impact the league for years to come.
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