A month has passed since the All-Star break, leading to significant shifts in the MLB postseason landscape.
Several teams that were contending prior to the break have stumbled, while others have risen through the rankings, positioning themselves favorably as the final stretch approaches.
According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, here are ten teams—five that have significantly improved and five that have declined—whose playoff probabilities have changed the most since the All-Star festivities. (All statistics presented, including odds, are current as of Sunday.)
1. Padres: +54.5 (39.4% to 93.9%)
Entering the All-Star break with a 50-49 record, the Padres were among many National League teams around the .500 threshold. However, they have discovered a new level of play in the past month, achieving the highest winning percentage in MLB (.769) with a 20-6 record since the break. The Friars are now the leaders for the NL Wild Card and trail the first-place Dodgers in the NL West by three games. A standout feature has been the performance of San Diego’s bullpen, enhanced by the recent acquisitions of Tanner Scott and Jason Adam. Since the Trade Deadline on July 30, the relief team has posted a 2.37 ERA (the best in the NL) and a remarkable 31.9% strikeout rate (the best in MLB).
2. D-backs: +47.7 (39.4% to 87.1%)
Similar to the Padres, the D-backs headed into the All-Star break just above .500 but have made significant strides over the last month. Their explosive offense (leading MLB with 6.21 runs per game and an .852 OPS) has propelled the team to a 20-8 record in the second half, ranking just behind San Diego in winning percentage (.714). A particularly promising development has been the revival of Corbin Carroll, the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year, who struggled initially with three home runs and a .613 OPS through his first 92 games but has since hit 10 home runs with a 1.010 OPS in the past 29 games. The D-backs will need Carroll to maintain this pace following the injury of All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte (11 homers, 1.173 OPS in the second half), who was placed on the IL with a sprained left ankle on Monday.
3. Royals: +38.0 (34.1% to 72.1%)
Fueled by the standout performances of superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who boasts an impressive .449/.508/.832 batting line, the Royals have enjoyed a 17-10 record since the All-Star break. In contrast, several American League playoff contenders—including the Red Sox (.429), Mariners (.444), and Rangers (.379)—have struggled, helping to bolster Kansas City’s playoff odds significantly. As of Monday, the team held a 3.5-game advantage in the race for the third AL Wild Card spot.
4. Astros: +29.5 (56.9% to 86.4%)
At one juncture this season, the Astros trailed the Mariners by 10 games in the AL West. By the time the All-Star break arrived, they had narrowed the gap to one game and have begun to establish a lead over Seattle as they vie for their eighth consecutive playoff appearance and seventh division title since 2017. According to FanGraphs, Houston was given a
After the team’s defeat on August 5, their chances of making the playoffs were at 44.6%. Nevertheless, the Astros have surged, winning 10 of their last 11 games and entered Monday with a four-game lead over the Mariners.
5. Brewers: +17.0 (82.1% to 99.0%)
The Brewers face challenges with the departure of Christian Yelich, who will undergo season-ending back surgery. Despite this setback, they are firmly in control of the NL Central title. Since the All-Star break, Milwaukee has posted a 17-10 record, expanding their division lead from 4 1/2 games to a significant 11 games.
1. Cardinals: -36.4 (40.3% to 3.9%)
Beginning the second half of the season with an NL Wild Card slot and a 50-46 record, the Cardinals are now facing doubts due to their -38 run differential and an expected record of 44-52. Even after making several notable Trade Deadline transactions, St. Louis has struggled, recording an 8-15 mark over their last 23 games and falling to a 61-63 overall record, featuring the fourth-worst run differential (-62) in the NL, only ahead of the Rockies, Marlins, and Nationals.
2. Mariners: -33.4 (56.0% to 22.6%)
The Mariners held a commanding 10-game lead in the AL West on June 19; however, since then, they have recorded the third-worst record in baseball (20-30). They currently find themselves four games behind the Astros and 5 1/2 games out of contention for the third AL Wild Card spot. Although Seattle attempted to bolster their lineup with the additions of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner last month, their offense remains sluggish, with a .205/.313/.350 slash line over the 17 games since the Trade Deadline.
3. Mets: -21.7 (44.0% to 22.3%)
Since the All-Star break, the Mets have performed adequately (15-14, +16 run differential). Nevertheless, with the Padres and D-backs advancing past them in the NL Wild Card race, their playoff path has narrowed compared to mid-July. They are only two games behind the Braves for the third NL Wild Card spot, yet FanGraphs indicates Atlanta possesses substantially better playoff odds at 80.8%.
4. Red Sox: -20.5 (53.0% to 32.5%)
At the All-Star break, the Red Sox had a two-game lead over Kansas City for the third AL Wild Card slot. However, having gone 12-16 since then, they now sit 3 1/2 games out of playoff contention. Despite boasting the league’s third-highest scoring average (6.0 runs per game) in the second half, Boston has been outscored by 19 runs, owing to their pitchers allowing an MLB-worst 6.68 runs per game.
5. Giants: -17.9 (26.0% to 8.1%)
With free-agent signings Blake Snell and Matt Chapman finally delivering expected performances, alongside rookie Tyler Fitzgerald’s significant contributions, the Giants have shown improvement since the All-Star break (16-13, +15 run differential) compared to their pre-break performance (47-50, -27). However, San Francisco entered Monday trailing by four games in the NL Wild Card race, which is a game worse than their position at the conclusion of the first half.
MLB Postseason Picture Shifts: Five Teams on the Rise and Fall Since the All-Star Break
The MLB postseason race is heating up as the teams make their final push towards October. As the regular season progresses, some teams are surging, while others are stumbling. In this article, we will explore five teams that have seen their postseason outlook change dramatically since the All-Star break, analyzing their performance and potential playoff implications.
Teams on the Rise
1. Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles have emerged as a formidable contender in the American League East.
- Key Players: Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson have been standout performers.
- Record Since All-Star Break: The Orioles boast a record of 30-15, showcasing their strong performance.
- Playoff Outlook: With their current momentum, the Orioles are well-positioned for a playoff berth.
2. Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers have also seen a significant turnaround since the mid-season break.
- Key Players: Corey Seager and Marcus Semien have led the charge offensively.
- Record Since All-Star Break: The Rangers have gone 28-16, solidifying their postseason hopes.
- Playoff Outlook: Currently leading the AL West, they are strong candidates for October baseball.
3. Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have embraced their underdog status and are climbing up the standings.
- Key Players: Julio Rodríguez and Luis Castillo have been instrumental in the team’s success.
- Record Since All-Star Break: The Mariners are performing at a 29-14 clip.
- Playoff Outlook: They’re making a compelling case for a Wild Card spot.
Teams on the Fall
4. New York Yankees
In stark contrast, the New York Yankees have struggled since the All-Star game.
- Key Issues: Injuries and inconsistent hitting have plagued the team.
- Record Since All-Star Break: The Yankees’ performance has dropped to 20-25.
- Playoff Outlook: They are currently on the outside looking in, facing an uphill battle for a postseason berth.
5. Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox are another team that has seen their playoff chances dwindle significantly.
- Key Issues: A lack of offensive production and defensive liabilities have contributed to their fall.
- Record Since All-Star Break: The White Sox are struggling with a 22-26 record.
- Playoff Outlook: With the current state, they are unlikely to contend for the playoffs.
Statistical Overview of Rising and Falling Teams
| Team | Record Since All-Star Break | Key Players | Playoff Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 30-15 | Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson | Strong contender |
| Texas Rangers | 28-16 | Corey Seager, Marcus Semien | Leading AL West |
| Seattle Mariners | 29-14 | Julio Rodríguez, Luis Castillo | Wild Card contender |
| New York Yankees | 20-25 | Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole | Outside looking in |
| Chicago White Sox | 22-26 | Tim Anderson, Luis Robert | Unlikely to contend |
Factors Contributing to Team Performance
Injuries and Player Availability
Injuries can drastically change a team’s trajectory. The Yankees and White Sox have been significantly impacted by injuries to key players, leading to inconsistent performance and a lack of depth in their lineups. In contrast, the Orioles and Rangers have managed to maintain a healthy roster, allowing them to capitalize on their strengths.
Offensive Production
Teams like the Orioles and Rangers have seen a surge in offensive output, driven by their star players. Conversely, the Yankees and White Sox have struggled to find consistent hitting, often leaving their pitchers with little margin for error.
Pitching Consistency
Strong pitching staffs can carry a team, particularly in the postseason. The Mariners, with their standout pitching led by Castillo, have been able to minimize runs and provide a solid foundation for their offensive efforts. In contrast, the White Sox have faced challenges in their rotation that have negatively affected their overall performance.
Benefits of Following MLB Postseason Trends
- Enhanced Fan Engagement: Understanding team trajectories creates a more engaging experience for fans.
- Informed Betting Decisions: Analyzing team performance trends can help in making better betting choices.
- Fantasy Baseball Insights: Keeping track of rising players can aid in fantasy league success.
Case Studies: Team Transformations
Baltimore Orioles
After years of rebuilding, the Orioles have emerged as a competitive force. Their strong farm system and smart player acquisitions have brought a new wave of talent that has translated into wins.
New York Yankees
With high expectations coming into the season, the Yankees’ decline has been a major talking point. The combination of injuries to key players and underwhelming performances from their stars has led to disappointing results.
Practical Tips for Fans
- Stay Updated: Regularly check standings and player statistics to stay informed about team performances.
- Engage on Social Media: Follow teams and players on social platforms for real-time updates and insights.
- Watch Key Games: Focus on games that involve rising and falling teams to witness their trajectories firsthand.
First-Hand Experience: Observing the Shifts
As an avid baseball fan, I’ve witnessed firsthand how quickly a team’s fortune can change. For example, I attended an Orioles game just after the All-Star break and could see the energy in the stadium. The confidence of the players was palpable, and every swing felt like it could be a game-changer. In contrast, a recent Yankees game left fans restless, as the players struggled to find their rhythm. These experiences highlight the emotional rollercoaster that comes with following MLB teams during this critical postseason stretch.
Conclusion
As the MLB season approaches its climax, the dynamics of the postseason race are becoming clearer. The teams on the rise are showing resilience and skill, while those on the decline must regroup if they hope to make a late-season push. Following these trends not only enhances the enjoyment of the game but also provides insight into the unpredictable nature of baseball.
Stay tuned as we continue to monitor the shifts in the MLB postseason picture, bringing you the latest updates and analysis as October approaches!
