The most resilient pitcher in the American League has an informal evaluation system for the performance of starters.
“If you pitch seven innings, you’ve done your job; six is the minimum, and if you can make it through five and secure the win, that’s just a participation trophy,” remarked Seth Lugo, the dependable right-hander for the Kansas City Royals. “Any performance beyond seven innings is considered exceptional. You feel good about your day. It’s a fantastic day at work.”
Lugo had achieved the highest number of innings pitched in the major leagues this season, totaling 197, until he was surpassed on Thursday by Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants, who reached 198. Unsurprisingly, these pitchers are among the leaders in a statistic we aim to popularize as a gauge of durability and excellence: the high-quality start, or HQS.
You might be familiar with the term “quality start,” a statistic introduced by Hall of Fame baseball writer John Lowe. For many years, the QS – defined as at least six innings pitched with three or fewer earned runs – has proven effective in assessing a pitcher’s ability to keep his team competitive.
As of Wednesday, teams boasted a .689 winning percentage when their pitcher notched a quality start, which equates to a projected 112 wins over a full 162-game season. Therefore, this statistic offers insightful information when analyzed on a broader scale.
However, the term does come with drawbacks. The minimum criterion for a “quality” start corresponds to a 4.50 ERA, making it easy for detractors to downplay it with a true yet narrow-minded view that a 4.50 isn’t quality. But what if we adjust the framework of the statistic?
Introducing the HQS: at least seven innings pitched and no more than two earned runs allowed. This results in a 2.57 ERA, which surpasses even that of Cy Young himself. Up until Wednesday, teams enjoyed an .802 winning percentage when their pitcher delivered a high-quality start, amounting to a potential 130 wins in a season.
Understandably, achieving an HQS is more challenging than securing a QS. As of Wednesday, pitchers have recorded 1,678 quality starts this season, but only 31 percent of these (526) qualify as high-quality starts. While 36.7 percent of all MLB starts fall into the quality category, only 11.5 percent meet the HQS criteria.
Here are the leaderboards for HQS, categorized by team and pitcher:
Some intriguing points:
– The playoff-bound Cleveland Guardians rely significantly on their bullpen, leading them to have the fewest HQS of any team in the majors, totaling just 6. These came from Tanner Bibee (2), Joey Cantillo (1), Ben Lively (1), Triston McKenzie (1), and Gavin Williams (1). The Marlins and Rays are tied for the second fewest, each with eight.
– Gerrit Cole, last year’s AL Cy Young winner representing the New York Yankees, missed the first two and a half months due to elbow inflammation and has yet to achieve an HQS. He has not pitched more than six innings in any of his 15 starts.
– Zac Gallen from Arizona, who placed third in the NL Cy Young voting last season, also has zero HQS. He has been consistent (12-6, with a 3.61 ERA in
best record. However, Angels veteran Tyler Anderson boasts eight wins, while the only other pitcher exceeding two, Jose Soriano, was sidelined for the season with arm fatigue in mid-August.
– Since the All-Star break, the Giants’ Blake Snell (a deserving candidate for the first-half NL Cy Young) has been so dominating that he’s occasionally been too effective to qualify for a Quality Start (HQS). He has pitched six or more shutout innings five times, achieving at least 10 strikeouts and allowing fewer than three hits. Yet, in three of those appearances, Snell was removed before completing seven innings due to his high pitch count.
Lugo leads MLB with 10 outings that lasted at least seven innings while yielding no more than one earned run, although there isn’t a specific nickname for that achievement. He takes pride in efficiently managing his pitch count and quickly disposing of batters.
“Al Jackson always used to say: ‘After three pitches, they should be on first base or sitting in the dugout,’” Lugo recalled, mentioning a pitcher from the original 1962 Mets who served many years in their farm system as a coach.
“I could go out and try to strike everyone out, but that would lead to throwing 50 pitches in two or three innings, making it tough to get through five or six. That puts a lot of strain on your bullpen, plus you give hitters more pitches to see, which doesn’t help the pitcher who follows you.”
“Just throw one on the corner and aim for a ground ball. It’s much simpler. It also allows you to reserve your best pitches for when there are runners in scoring position with less than two outs.”
However, the true master of the HQS is Webb, who led MLB in innings pitched last season, totaling 216. Similar to Lugo, Webb possesses the ability to secure strikeouts but focuses on durability instead.
“Any time you can go seven innings allowing two runs or fewer, you’re giving your team a solid chance to win, and that’s my main goal when I step on the mound,” Webb shared with The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly. “There are occasions where I might push myself a bit trying to aim for that extra inning, but ultimately, I want to do my part for our team.”
Webb emphasized that he feels a responsibility to pitch deep into games, especially since the Giants’ bullpen is heavily relied upon this season. No other Giant has reached 125 innings pitched this season, and while his 3.58 ERA is respectable, it could be lower if he had different priorities.
“There’s also part of me that wishes I had a few more six-inning outings where I didn’t give up any runs,” Webb admitted. “I think finding that balance is essential – but, yes, it’s what I strive for, and I’m glad it’s something I’ve been able to achieve.”
While this may not be sufficient for Webb to claim his first Cy Young Award—given the outstanding seasons of Sale and Wheeler in the NL East—it certainly merits a salute from Sliders, recognizing him as the major-league leader in exceptional performances.
The best $25,000 Cleveland ever spent
How a 1991 waiver claim continues to benefit the Guardians
It was late in spring training, 33 years ago, when John Hart, Cleveland’s director of baseball operations, decided to spend $25,000 to claim a Class-A catcher named Ed Taubensee off waivers from the Oakland A’s.
“He’s a big, strong left-handed hitter with power,” Hart mentioned to The Plain Dealer at that time. “We want to evaluate him.”
The organization looked at Taubensee for a mere 26 major-league games in 1991, during which he posted a .242 batting average without any home runs. However, all these years later, the team continues to reap the rewards of that modest waiver claim. It currently reflects in closer Emmanuel Clase, who has the potential to become the first reliever to lead the majors in saves for three consecutive seasons since the statistic was first established in the 1960s.
Taubensee (shown here in 1991) played for the Astros and Reds before making a return to Cleveland in 2001, marking the final season of his 11-year MLB career. (Rick Stewart/Allsport/Getty Images)
Emmanuel Clase, boasting 46 saves and an impressive 0.63 ERA as of Thursday, is the latest star to shine from an incredible series of trades that stretch back decades:
April 4, 1991: Cleveland claims Taubensee off waivers from Oakland.
December 10, 1991: Cleveland trades Taubensee and Willie Blair to Houston in exchange for Kenny Lofton and David Rohde.
March 25, 1997: Cleveland sends Lofton and Alan Embree to Atlanta for Marquis Grissom and David Justice.
June 29, 2000: Cleveland deals Justice to New York (AL) for Zach Day, Ricky Ledee, and Jake Westbrook.
July 31, 2010: Cleveland trades Westbrook to St. Louis; in a separate move, St. Louis trades Ryan Ludwick to San Diego, which in turn sends Nick Greenwood to St. Louis and Corey Kluber to Cleveland.
December 15, 2019: Cleveland trades Kluber to Texas in exchange for Emmanuel Clase and Delino DeShields.
Cleveland acquired five players critical to significant playoff runs: Lofton (1995 World Series), Grissom and Justice (1997 World Series), Westbrook (2007 ALCS), and Kluber (2016 World Series).
Currently, the Guardians are looking to Clase – who played a key role in their division series appearance two years ago – to continue this legacy. He exemplifies how trading star players can help maintain a competitive edge for a low-payroll franchise.
“It’s challenging to trace every trade back to its origin because there is often a gap in the chain,” commented Guardians general manager Mike Chernoff, who was just a child when the Taubensee trade initiated this series of events.
“However, over the last 20 years, amidst changing economic circumstances in Cleveland, that’s how we have managed to build our teams. It’s an accepted reality: Kluber made significant contributions here, but we eventually reached a point where trading him became necessary, hoping to transform that situation into something beneficial. At the time, Clase wasn’t yet the player he is now, but he has since developed into that.”
“You keep the process going, and it’s remarkable – a topic we frequently discuss.”
Gimme Five
Five bits of ballpark wisdom
Jeff Hoffman on making your postseason debut
Having played for four different organizations and nearing 30 years old, Jeff Hoffman almost signed with a team in Japan before eventually making his postseason debut last fall with the Philadelphia Phillies. He emerged as a crucial player for
In Rob Thomson’s bullpen, Hoffman participated in eight of the Phillies’ 13 playoff games, yielding two runs, five hits, and one walk across seven innings, while recording nine strikeouts.
He encountered two injuries, both resulting from sliders—a home run by Austin Riley of Atlanta in the division series and a go-ahead single by Arizona’s Gabriel Moreno in Game 7 of the NLCS. Over the winter, he focused on enhancing the consistency of his slider and achieved his first All-Star appearance, maintaining a 1.73 ERA as of Thursday.
As many major leaguers prepare to experience October baseball for the first time, Hoffman shared some insights on what to anticipate.
Season-long excitement plays a crucial role. “It’s definitely a challenge to be out there and convince yourself it’s just another game. While the stakes are undoubtedly higher, we were so absorbed in the situation that I can’t recall placing any more importance on it than I would any other game. I think our crowd does an excellent job of getting us ready for postseason play, because the fans are engaged year-round. Last year was the first time I really noticed that. Competing through September in meaningful games until we clinched felt the same as October. Thus, having those experiences earlier in the season as we head into the postseason definitely helped. They make every game feel like a playoff game.”
It becomes extremely loud. “Arizona can create a unique atmosphere, especially when they close the roof which allows the sound to be trapped, making it feel as if your ears are ringing when you lie down at night. But here, I believe the intensity of our crowd’s noise is unmatched when compared to others.”
Be prepared for anything. “Our bullpen operates with a full roster ready at all times. There’s really not much more that can be thrown at us. We’re all prepared for anything to go wrong every inning. If we all commit to that mindset, our success rate is quite good.”
Nobody is concerned about postseason statistics. “Once you enter a playoff series, the only thing that truly matters is winning. I can’t recall ever looking back at my postseason stats. The only thing that sticks with me is that we lost in the NLCS, but this year provides us with another opportunity to win.”
The sample size is so small, the numbers are inflated to a point where they become irrelevant. If your team concedes two runs but manages to win 3-2, what does it matter? What truly counts is that your team emerges victorious.
There’s no preparation for the end. “At that stage, you just anticipate continuing to play. Your focus is on reaching the next day, but when it finally stops and you realize you won’t see these guys daily for the remainder of the year, it leaves a burn. It fuels your desire to return even stronger the following season. I don’t believe we’ve moved past it. Not at all. We’ll only move on when we capture the World Series.”
Off the Grid
A historical detour from the Immaculate Grid
John Candelaria, 40+ WAR, Minnesota Twins
This past Monday, as he observed New York Mets left-hander Sean Manaea pitch to left-handed hitter James Wood, Washington’s SNY broadcaster Keith Hernandez made a striking analogy.
“You can currently notice how these young hitters, specifically the left-handers – and drawing from my own experiences – the sidearmer reminds me of John Candelaria, who played for the Pittsburgh Pirates and is a native of New York,” Hernandez stated. “It’s a tough matchup.”
Just as expected, Manaea delivered a high, 96-mph fastball, which zipped past Wood for strike three.
Hernandez, an MVP and batting champion, posted a batting average exceeding .300 against legendary left-handed Cy Young winners such as Vida Blue, Steve Carlton, Randy Jones, and Fernando Valenzuela. Still, among the 17 pitchers he faced at least 70 times, he had the lowest on-base percentage against Candelaria, managing a mere .274 OBP alongside a .244 batting average.
On Monday, the Grid was looking for a Minnesota Twin with 40 career WAR, and once again, the well-known Candelaria came to mind. Over a span of 19 seasons, from 1975 to 1993, the 6-foot-7 former high school basketball star primarily played for the Pirates but suited up for seven other teams as well.
Six of those teams are relatively easy to recall: both teams from New York, both teams from the Los Angeles area, and both Canadian teams from that era. The remaining one is Minnesota, where Candelaria played during the first half of the 1990 season.
Candelaria accumulated 41.9 career WAR, as documented in his fascinating career, marked by a record 50 games above .500 (177-122) and a commendable 3.33 ERA. His early career highlights include a no-hitter in 1976, notching 20 wins in 1977, and clinching a championship in 1979, when he triumphed over the Orioles – defeating the great Jim Palmer – under elimination pressure in Game 6 of the World Series in Baltimore.
However, he also faced considerable hardships. While in the minor leagues in 1974, Candelaria was pitching in Salem, Virginia, when a young teammate, Alfredo Edmead, tragically lost his life in an outfield collision. In 1985, his young son passed away months after succumbing to injuries from a swimming pool accident the previous Christmas.
Candelaria battled alcohol issues and endured several DUI arrests throughout his career, including one incident he later attributed to a teammate, Don Sutton, who he accused of setting him up. Prior to these challenges coming to light, Candelaria was frequently described as a quirky, mercurial personality, known for his vibrant quotes.
“Life is to enjoy,” he told Sports Illustrated in 1982. “It’s a mystery to be lived, not a problem to be solved.”
Classic
Clip
“Walk of Life” by Dire Straits
As the Milwaukee Brewers approached clinching the NL Central on Tuesday, a clip emerged on an X post from @BrewCrewScoop: catcher Ted Simmons leaping into the arms of closer Rollie Fingers during the franchise’s first playoff berth celebration.
This moment, captured on October 3, 1981, also features towards the end of the video for “Walk of Life,” a cheerful hit by the British band Dire Straits released in 1985. While the song itself does not focus on sports, it incorporates fast-paced clips from MLB, the NFL, and the NBA.
According to a syndicated article from 1985, the inspiration came from Mark Knopfler, the singer, songwriter, and lead guitarist.
“He believed that the sports visuals would create an entertaining parallel to the song,” remarked producer Simon Field in an interview with Knight-Ridder Newspapers. “Plus, people really enjoy watching sports.”
Among the athletes who make brief appearances are Tug McGraw, Rick Dempsey, Ivan Calderon, a very young Roger Clemens, Harold Baines, Wade Boggs, Larry Bowa, Oscar Gamble, Bucky Dent, Gary Matthews, Kevin Saucier, and a Mariners player with a baseball in his mouth. The video mostly showcases bloopers and pratfalls until it culminates in celebrations filled with champagne, cheering fans, and touchdown dances, ending with Simmons jumping on Fingers.
“And after all the violence and double-talk, there’s just a song in all the trouble and the strife…”
(Top photo of Seth Lugo: Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Measuring Mound Mastery: The Rise of the High-Quality Start in Baseball
Understanding High-Quality Starts (HQS)
In the evolving landscape of Major League Baseball (MLB), the concept of a High-Quality Start (HQS) has emerged as a critical metric for evaluating pitchers. A high-quality start is defined as a game in which a starting pitcher completes at least six innings while allowing three or fewer earned runs. This statistic has gained traction among analysts, coaches, and fans alike, serving as a reliable indicator of a pitcher’s effectiveness.
Why High-Quality Starts Matter
High-quality starts are essential for several reasons:
- Team Success: Teams with pitchers who consistently achieve HQS are more likely to win games. This stability in the starting rotation can greatly influence a team’s performance over a season.
- Pitcher Development: Evaluating HQS helps coaches identify talent and potential in young pitchers, guiding their development and training.
- Fantasy Baseball Impact: Fantasy baseball players often seek pitchers with high HQS rates, as they can lead to more wins and lower earned run averages (ERAs), directly affecting fantasy standings.
Key Metrics for Evaluating Pitching Performance
While High-Quality Starts are a foundational metric, several other key statistics contribute to a comprehensive understanding of a pitcher’s performance:
- Earned Run Average (ERA): A measure of a pitcher’s effectiveness, calculated as the average number of earned runs allowed per nine innings.
- WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched): This statistic reflects the pitcher’s ability to keep runners off the base paths, crucial for maintaining game control.
- Strikeouts per Nine Innings (K/9): Indicates a pitcher’s ability to retire batters via strikes, providing insight into their dominance on the mound.
- Quality Starts (QS): A precursor to HQS, this metric counts any start where a pitcher throws at least six innings and allows three or fewer earned runs, but does not differentiate between high-quality and regular quality starts.
Table: Comparison of Pitching Metrics
| Metric | Description | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| HQS | 6+ innings, ≤3 earned runs | Indicates high-level performance and endurance |
| ERA | Runs allowed per 9 innings | Core measure of effectiveness |
| WHIP | Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched | Reflects control and ability to limit scoring chances |
| K/9 | Strikeouts per 9 innings | Shows dominance and strikeout capability |
The Evolution of the High-Quality Start
The rise of the High-Quality Start can be traced back to the increasing complexity of pitching analyses in MLB. Traditionally, pitchers were evaluated mainly on win-loss records, but that has shifted to a more nuanced approach that emphasizes overall performance metrics.
Historical Context
In the early days of baseball, statistics like wins and losses were the primary indicators of a pitcher’s success. However, as advanced analytics gained popularity in the 21st century, metrics like HQS have taken center stage:
- Pre-1990s: Focus on traditional stats (Wins, ERA).
- 1990s: Introduction of WHIP and K/9.
- 2000s onward: Emergence of SABR metrics, leading to a renaissance in pitcher evaluation.
Benefits of Focusing on High-Quality Starts
Adopting HQS as a critical metric for evaluating pitchers offers several advantages:
- Enhanced Performance Tracking: By measuring the consistency of starts, teams can identify which pitchers are most effective in critical game situations.
- Better Decision-Making: Managers can make informed decisions on pitching changes, rotations, and game strategies based on HQS trends.
- Improved Team Composition: Teams can target players in drafts or trades who have a history of high-quality starts, strengthening their pitching staff.
Practical Tips for Pitchers to Achieve High-Quality Starts
For aspiring pitchers or those looking to improve their game, here are some essential tips to enhance your chances of achieving HQS:
- Work on Endurance: Incorporate stamina-building exercises into your training regimen to improve your ability to pitch deeper into games.
- Focus on Control: Sharpen your command to minimize walks and hits, leading to fewer scoring opportunities for opponents.
- Analyze Game Film: Review your pitching performance to identify areas for improvement, such as pitch selection and mechanics.
- Develop a Strong Mental Game: Work on your mental resilience to stay focused and composed in high-pressure situations.
Case Studies: Notable High-Quality Start Performers
Several pitchers have made a name for themselves through their consistent high-quality starts:
- Max Scherzer: A perennial Cy Young contender known for his ability to dominate hitters and rack up HQS.
- Jacob deGrom: Renowned for his exceptional strikeout numbers and low earned run averages, he consistently delivers high-quality performances.
- Gerrit Cole: With a powerful fastball and effective control, he has established himself as one of the top pitchers in achieving HQS.
First-Hand Experience: Pitching and Achieving HQS
As a former collegiate pitcher, I found that achieving high-quality starts required a combination of physical preparation and mental fortitude. Here are some personal insights:
- Routine is Key: Developing a pre-game routine helped me focus and prepare mentally for each start.
- Embrace Feedback: Listening to coaches and incorporating their advice into my game improved my overall performance.
- Stay Adaptable: Conditions vary from game to game; learning to adjust strategies based on opponents and game situations was crucial.
The Future of High-Quality Starts in Baseball
As baseball continues to evolve, the importance of High-Quality Starts will likely grow. Teams will increasingly rely on this metric to assess talent, develop pitchers, and strategize game plans. With advancements in technology and analytics, we can expect even more refined methods for measuring and improving pitching performance in the pursuit of HQS.
