If someone had suggested to Seattle Mariners fans before the 2024 season that the reigning Texas Rangers would be on track for 88 losses as September approached, and that the Houston Astros – a modern baseball dynasty – would kick off the year at 12-24, celebrations would likely have ensued.
However, the season has not proceeded as anticipated. Heading into Monday’s games, the Mariners sit in second place in the American League West, trailing the hot Astros by four games. Additionally, they find themselves 5 1/2 games away from the final wild-card spot in the AL, with the Kansas City Royals and Boston Red Sox ahead in that race. Currently, SportsLine gives the Mariners a mere 20.9% chance of reaching the postseason. While these odds are not impossible to overcome, it is increasingly likely that Seattle will face another October at home for the second year in a row.
The situation appeared different earlier this season. On June 18, the Mariners achieved a season-high 13 games above .500 and held a commanding 10-game lead in their division. Throughout the season, they have spent 107 days in first place. However, for over a week now, they have been in pursuit of the revitalized Astros, and the gap has widened recently. The optimism has shifted into concerns that Seattle may once again miss the postseason. Furthermore, the team is on track for its lowest winning percentage in a full season since 2019.
So, what led to this decline in Seattle’s fortunes? In broad terms, three significant factors are to blame.
The Astros have regained their form
As mentioned earlier, the Astros began the season poorly, reaching a dismal 12 games below .500 on May 8. However, since then, they have reverted to the form that has seen them reach the ALCS for seven consecutive seasons. Following that critical low point, the Astros have posted a record of 55-32, translating to a winning percentage of .632, the best in MLB during this timeframe. The Arizona Diamondbacks hold the second-best record since May 9, at .591. Moreover, the Astros have supported their climb in the standings with a league-leading run differential of plus-102, while the Milwaukee Brewers hold the second-best mark at plus-87.
What makes this turnaround even more remarkable is that the Astros have managed to maintain their success despite dealing with significant injuries. Their rotation has faced challenges, turning what once appeared to be enviable depth into a chaotic situation. The simultaneous emergence of Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown has proven instrumental, alongside the acquisition of veteran lefty Yusei Kikuchi at the trade deadline. Furthermore, star outfielder Kyle Tucker, who started the season as an AL MVP candidate, has been sidelined since late May with a shin injury. Nevertheless, the Astros have continued to secure victories consistently.
The Mariners’ offense has faltered
Last season, the Seattle offense was not particularly impressive, finishing 12th in the majors for runs scored and 16th in OPS. This year, however, the situation has worsened considerably. Currently, the Mariners rank 12th in runs scored, 14th in OPS, and 15th in wOBA (what’s this?). In 2024, they have drastically fallen to 26th in runs scored, 28th in OPS, and 26th in wOBA. While Seattle’s pitching has been exceptional, the offense has not provided any support. Competing against a team like Houston is difficult when scoring runs is a struggle. Although the additions of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner at the trade deadline provide some assistance, it is unlikely to significantly alter the standings in the division.
Seattle’s star players from 2023 have underperformed in 2024
We refer specifically to young superstar center fielder Julio Rodríguez and shortstop J.P. Crawford. Last season, these two led the Mariners in WAR, but this year, injuries and inconsistent performances have considerably diminished their value. Rodríguez’s OPS+ – indicating his park-adjusted OPS as a percentage of the league-average figure of 100 – has dropped from 130 last season to 101 in 2024. Meanwhile, Crawford registered a career-high OPS+ of 133 in 2023, which has plummeted to 89 in 2024. Rodríguez just returned from an ankle injury that sidelined him for almost three weeks, while Crawford remains on the injured list with a fractured finger, having previously missed nearly a month due to an oblique strain.
Last season, the combined WAR for these vital contributors was 10.4. In 2024, that number has sunk to 3.6, with their absence severely impacting the Mariners’ standings.
Looking ahead, the outlook remains mixed and likely unfavorable for Seattle in the AL West. They face a much easier schedule than Houston’s for the remainder of the season, and they still have one more series against the Astros (Sept. 23-25 in Houston). However, Houston is expected to welcome back future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (neck) from the injured list on Wednesday, marking his first start since June 9. This, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding Tucker’s return this season – although he recently advanced to hitting on the field, raising hopes for his return – adds to Houston’s strength. Even beyond the possibility of improved health, the Astros have been in juggernaut mode for over three months, and there is little reason to believe that this will change. Consequently, Seattle finds itself in a challenging position as the stretch run approaches.
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Mariners Struggle Amidst Astros’ Resurgence: A Look into Seattle’s Disappointing 2024 Season
Overview of the 2024 Season
The Seattle Mariners entered the 2024 MLB season with high hopes and expectations. Following a promising 2023, fans were optimistic about the team’s potential to compete in the American League West. However, as the season progressed, it became increasingly clear that the Mariners were struggling to keep pace, particularly against their rivals, the Houston Astros, who are experiencing a resurgence. This article explores the factors contributing to Seattle’s disappointing performance and the stark contrast with the Astros’ success.
Key Factors Behind Seattle’s Struggles
Several factors have contributed to the Mariners’ difficulties in the 2024 season. Understanding these issues provides insight into the team’s current standing.
Inconsistent Offense
- Striking Out Too Much: The Mariners have one of the highest strikeout rates in the league, which significantly hampers their ability to generate runs.
- Injury Impact: Key players have faced injuries, disrupting the lineup and affecting overall team chemistry.
- Lack of Power Hitting: The team has struggled to hit home runs, which are crucial for scoring in today’s game.
Poor Pitching Performance
- Starting Rotation Struggles: The starting pitchers have not been able to go deep into games, placing undue stress on the bullpen.
- Inconsistent Bullpen: The relief pitchers have struggled to maintain leads, leading to several late-inning collapses.
- High ERA: The Mariners’ ERA has ranked among the highest in the league, showcasing their struggles on the mound.
Defensive Shortcomings
- Fielding Errors: The Mariners have committed an alarming number of fielding errors, which have cost them games.
- Base Running Mistakes: Poor base running decisions have resulted in avoidable outs, stalling potential scoring opportunities.
Comparative Analysis: Mariners vs. Astros
The Seattle Mariners’ struggles have been magnified by the Houston Astros’ resurgence in 2024. Below is a comparative analysis highlighting key performance metrics between the two teams.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 60 | 75 |
| Batting Average | .230 | .270 |
| ERA | 4.80 | 3.50 |
| Home Runs | 120 | 180 |
| Fielding Percentage | .975 | .985 |
Player Performances
Individual player performances have also played a crucial role in shaping Seattle’s season. Here are some standout players whose performances have been particularly impactful:
Top Performers
- Julio Rodríguez: The young star has shown flashes of brilliance but has struggled to maintain consistency.
- Ty France: Known for his ability to get on base, Ty’s performance has been hampered by injuries this season.
- Logan Gilbert: Despite the team’s struggles, Gilbert has been a bright spot in the rotation, offering solid outings when healthy.
Players Who Have Disappointed
- Jarred Kelenic: Expected to be a breakout star, Kelenic has struggled significantly at the plate.
- Marco Gonzales: Once a reliable starter, his decline has been concerning for the rotation.
- J.P. Crawford: Defensive miscues and lack of offensive production have hampered his value.
Fan Reactions and Community Impact
The Mariners’ disappointing season has generated mixed reactions from fans and analysts alike. Social media platforms, as well as fan forums, have become hotbeds for discussions about potential trades, management strategies, and the future of the franchise.
Community Engagement
- Fan Forums: Many fans are expressing their frustrations, calling for changes within the organization.
- Local Media Coverage: Seattle sports media has been critical, analyzing every aspect of the team’s shortcomings.
- Community Events: The Mariners have attempted to bolster fan engagement through community events, but the excitement has waned as losses mount.
Looking Ahead: Future Prospects for the Mariners
While the Mariners’ current season has been disappointing, there are still opportunities for growth and improvement. Here are some areas to focus on:
Development of Young Talent
Investing in young players through the minor league system can help rejuvenate the roster. Developing prospects such as Emerson Hancock and Harry Ford could provide a fresh outlook for the 2025 season.
Strategic Trades
With the trade deadline approaching, the Mariners may explore options to strengthen their roster. Targeting players with proven track records can help address key weaknesses in both the batting order and pitching rotation.
Coaching Adjustments
A re-evaluation of coaching strategies and lineups may be essential. Looking into analytics to optimize matchups could enhance the team’s performance.
Conclusion
As the Seattle Mariners navigate through a challenging 2024 season, the contrast with the Houston Astros’ resurgence amplifies their struggles. By focusing on key areas for improvement, the Mariners can hope to turn their fortunes around and compete effectively in the coming years.
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